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Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
Public opinion landscape - Political
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Public opinion landscape - Political

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  • 1. Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis September 28, 2012
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..32. Campaign Interest & Engagement……………………………………….103. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…..134. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…195. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……226. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...257. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….29 2
  • 3. Political Context 3
  • 4. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONGTRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE As of September 27, 2012 Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now? WRONG TRACK 56.5% PROBLEM % Unemployment and jobs 43 The federal deficit 14 Health care 11 Gas prices 7 The situation in the 6 Middle East Taxes 4 RIGHT DIRECTION 35.9% Immigration 3 Terrorism 3 Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data 4
  • 5. AMERICANS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR VIEW OF THE U.S. ECONOMY What is your current view of the economy in the U.S.? Hopeful because there are 33% signs of improvement Fearful because things are 21% getting worse Cautious because nothing is 45% really happening 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Note: “Not sure” results are not shown. 5Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, Sept 21-24, 2012
  • 6. FOR VOTERS, IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY ENERGY, TERRORISM, IMMIGRATION LESS IMPORTANT THAN IN 2008 In making your decision about who to vote for this fall, will the issue of [ITEM] be very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all? Economy 87% % of voters 87% saying each is “Very Jobs* 80% 83% +3 important” to their vote Health care 73% 74% +1 Education 73% -4 69% 2008 Budget deficit** 69% -1 2012 68% Terrorism 72% -12 60% Energy 77% 55% -22 Immigration 52% 41% -11 Based on registered voters. All 2008 figures from 6 August except * October 2008 and ** May 2008Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
  • 7. SWING VOTERS SHARE SIMILARITIES WITH ROMNEY AND OBAMA VOTERS % of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote % of swing voters who say each is “very important” to their vote Romney Obama Swing Diff voters voters voters % % % Budget deficit 82 55 R+27 Budget deficit 63 Terrorism 68 55 R+13 Terrorism 57 Immigration 47 36 R+11 Immigration 39 Economy 93 83 R+10 Economy 85 Foreign policy 66 56 R+10 Foreign policy 45 Jobs 87 81 R+6 Jobs 74 Taxes 70 64 R+6 Taxes 57 Abortion 46 49 O+3 Abortion 34 Energy 51 59 O+8 Energy 54 Health care 67 82 O+15 Health care 65 Medicare 55 74 O+19 Medicare 61 Education 52 84 O+32 Education 74 7 Based on registered votersSource: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
  • 8. MORE WOMEN RATE ISSUE OF ABORTION AS VERY IMPORTANT % of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote M-W Total Men Women Diff % % % Abortion 46 36 54 W+18 Health care 74 67 81 W+14 Education 69 64 74 W+10 Jobs 83 78 86 W+8 Medicare 65 62 67 W+5 Economy 87 85 89 W+4 Immigration 41 39 43 W+4 Terrorism 60 59 62 W+3 Taxes 66 66 66 -- Foreign policy 60 61 60 M+1 Budget deficit 68 70 67 M+3 Energy 55 57 53 M+4 8 Based on registered votersSource: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
  • 9. MEDICARE A TOP ISSUE FOR OLDER VOTERS % of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote Young-Old 18-49 50-64 65+ Diff % % % Medicare 55 69 83 -28 Terrorism 53 63 72 -19 Foreign policy 55 59 73 -18 Energy 52 55 64 -12 Immigration 37 41 47 -10 Health care 72 75 80 -8 Abortion 45 45 49 -4 Economy 86 89 90 -4 Jobs 81 84 84 -3 Budget deficit 68 66 70 -2 Education 72 65 69 +3 Taxes 66 69 63 +3 9 Based on registered votersSource: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
  • 10. Campaign Interest and Engagement 10
  • 11. ENGAGEMENT DOWN FROM 2008, PARTICULARLY AMONG YOUNG VOTERS How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election…Quite a lot or only a little? Diff % given a lot of thought to the election 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2012 - 2008 All voters 69% 56% 58% 71% 78% 70% -8 Republican 72 65 66 75 81 72 -9 Democrat 74 57 58 70 79 71 -8 Independent 63 46 51 68 77 66 -11 18-29 58 46 41 57 65 48 -17 30-49 74 56 57 71 78 70 -8 50-65 68 59 66 76 86 75 -11 65+ 70 61 64 73 77 75 -2 White 70 56 60 72 80 70 -10 Black 66 50 54 64 76 76 - Based on registered voters. Figures from 11Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012 all years from September surveys
  • 12. ALTHOUGH INTEREST IS DOWN, VOTER INTENT IS HIGH Definitely plan to vote Given a lot of thought to election Following election news very closely 87% 84% 84% 78% 78% 78% 69% 71% 70% 56% 59% 47% 50% 46% 44% 29% 27% 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Based on registered voters. All figures are from September except definitely plan to vote from 2004 12 and 2000, which are from OctoberSource: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
  • 13. Views of the Candidates 13
  • 14. AMERICANS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE Please tell me if you approve or Overall Job Approval disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue… Approve Disapprove No opinion NET NET Issue APPROVE DISAPPROVE Standing up for 58% 39% 49% the middle class Taxes 51% 46% 45% Foreign policy 50% 45% 6% Medicare 50% 44% The economy 48% 51% The federal budget and 40% 57%Source: Gallup Poll, September 17 – 23 , 2012 spending Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012 14
  • 15. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election Presidential Job Approval January March June October 2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ? 2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50% 1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58% 1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33% 1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58% 1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32% 1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32% 1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59% 1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74% President’s in red lost re-election 15Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 16. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating FAVORABLE 52.2% FAVORABLE 42.5% UNFAVORABLE 43.4% UNFAVORABLE 49.4% As of September 28, 2012 16Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  • 17. NO PREVIOUS CANDIDATE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING CONVENTIONS Based on registered voters. Sept 1988 Sept 1992 Sept 1996 Sept 2000 Sept 2004 Sept 2008 Sept 2012 59 62 63 52 54 53 55 Democratic candidates 40 39 42 42 35 30 34 Favorable Unfavorable Dukakis Clinton Clinton Gore Kerry Obama Obama 58 61 53 51 54 Republican 49 46 41 43 45 50 candidates 36 37 35 Favorable Unfavorable GHWB GHWB Dole GWB GWB McCain Romney 17Source: Pew Research Center. 1988-2000 data from Gallup September Surveys
  • 18. CRITICISM OF ROMNEY’S CAMPAIGN GROWS; SIX IN TEN RATE HIS EFFORTS NEGATIVELY 70% Favorable 61% 60% 54% Unfavorable 50% 43% 40% 35% Was 49% in July 30% 20% 10% 0% Obamas handling of his campaign Romneys handling of his campaign Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the way [Barack Obama / Mitt Romney] is running his presidential campaign? 18Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 19-23, 2012
  • 19. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race 19
  • 20. OBAMA’S LEAD OVER ROMNEY GROWS TO OVER FOUR POINTS A Look Back As of September 28, 2012 Four Years Ago Today Sept 28, 2008 % OBAMA 48.7% Obama 47.9 McCain 43.1 +4.2 Obama +4.8 Eight Years Ago Today ROMNEY 44.5% Sept 28, 2004 % Bush 49.3 Kerry 43.4 Bush +5.9 Source: Real Clear Politics 20Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  • 21. LIKELY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON MOST ISSUES Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama? Obama Romney 60% 52% 52% 50% 49% 48% 50% 50% 48% 48% 45% 46% 43% 43% 40% 30% R Tied O O O O +5 +1 +4 +9 +9 20% 10% 0% The federal budget Jobs The economy Taxes Medicare Foreign policy and spending Note: “Neither,” and “No opinion” results 21 are not shown.Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012
  • 22. Battleground States 22
  • 23. THE ELECTORAL MAP 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 265 Toss-Up: 82 Romney: 191 23Source: Real Clear Politics (as of September 28, 2012)
  • 24. OBAMA LEADS IN ALL TOSS-UP STATES RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES States Obama Romney Obama Romney Colorado 48.7% 45.8% 9 0 Florida 49.3% 46.1% 29 0 Iowa 48.4% 44.8% 6 0 Nevada 49.0% 45.2% 6 0 New Hampshire 47.3% 44.8% 4 0 North Carolina 47.8% 46.7% 15 0 Ohio 49.3% 43.9% 18 0 Virginia 49.1% 45.0% 13 0 Wisconsin 51.5% 43.7% 10 0 Swing State Voters 110 0 Leaning/Likely State Voters 237 191 Total Overall Votes 347 191 24Source: Real Clear Politics, as of September 28, 2012
  • 25. Battle for Congress 25
  • 26. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE. Republicans need to win 6 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME. Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (6) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (1) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) – HI (Open) – MT (Tester) – AZ (Open) – NE (Open) – Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Democrat PA (Casey) – FL (Nelson) – VA (Open) – Democrat Democrat Democrat MI (Stabenow) – OH (Brown) – WI (Open) – Democrat Democrat Democrat CT (Open) – ND (Open) - Democrat Democrat NM (Open) – MA (Brown) – Democrat Republican MO (McCaskill) – NV (Heller) – Democrat Republican IN (Open) – Republican *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 26 he wins the open Maine seatSource: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012
  • 27. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES (9/15-9/25) (8/20 – 9/19) (5/3-7/11) King: 44% (9/11-9/23) Rehberg : 46% Berg: 49% Summers: 32% Baldwin: 49% Tester: 44% Heitkamp: 44% Dill: 14% Thompson: 44% (8/22-9/26) ND Murphy: 44% ME OR MT MN McMahon: 41% NH WI MA (8/22-9/11) CT Warren: McCaskill: 48% 47% NV Akin: 43% CO Brown: Heller: 43% MO KY VA 46% (9/13-9/24) Berkley: 42% NC (9/18-9/20) AZ NM GA Kaine: 49% Allen: 44% Flake: 46% (9/11-9/18) Carmona: 42% (9/7-9/25) 27Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 27, 2012)
  • 28. 2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH 89 Freshman Republicans 2012: 9 Freshman Democrats If the election for CONGRESS were being held today, and you had to make a choice, Retirements would you be voting for the Republican Democrats: 23 Republicans: 18 candidate or the Democratic candidate, in your congressional district? Democratic Toss Up Races Republican Toss Up Races 1. GA-12 (Barrow) 1. CA-7 (Lungren) AMONG REGISTERED LIKELY VOTERS 2. IL-12 (Open-Costello) 2. CA-26 (Open – Gallegly) 3. MA-6 (Tierney) 3. CA-52 (Bilbray) Republican 4. NC-7 (McIntyre) 4. CO-3 (Tipton) candidate 5. NY-21 (Owens) 5. CO-6 (Coffman) 6. 7. NY-27 (Hochul) PA-12 (Critz) 6. IL-11 (Biggert) 7. MN-8 (Cravaack) 45% 46% Democratic 8. RI-1 (Cicilline) 8. NV-3 (Heck) candidate 9. UT-4 (Matheson) 9. NH-2 (Bass) 10.NY-18 (Hayworth) 11.NY-19 (Gibson) 9% Undecided (vol.) 12.NY-24 (Buerkle) 13.OH-16 (Merged – Renacci) 14.TX-23 (Canseco) Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012 28Source: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012
  • 29. The Debates 29
  • 30. NEARLY HALF OF LIKELY VOTERS PLAN TO WATCH ALL OF THE DEBATES Now thinking about the Presidential debates and the Vice Presidential debate… As you may know, in October Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will participate in three debates while Joe Biden and Paul Ryan will participate in one debate. Do you plan to watch all, some, a little, or none of these debates? 60% 49% 50% 40% 34% 30% 20% 10% 7% 8% 2% 0% All Some A little None Unsure 30Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012
  • 31. FEW LIKELY VOTERS SAY DEBATES ARE EXTREMELY OR VERY IMPORTANT TO THEIR VOTE No matter how much of these debates that you plan to watch… How important will these debates be to your decision on who to vote for President? Would you say that these debates will be extremely, very, somewhat, a little or not at all important in your voting decision for President? Extremely important 11% 23% Very important 12% Somewhat important 24% A little important 14% Not at all important 38% Unsure 1% 31Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012
  • 32. UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE Date Debate Focus Wed, Oct. 3 First Presidential Debate Domestic policy Foreign and Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate domestic topics Town meeting Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate format Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy 32Source: Commission on Presidential Debates
  • 33. GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverseaudiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques touncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messagingand strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 33

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