Public Opinion Landscape - International Affairs


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Public Opinion Landscape - International Affairs

  1. International Affairs: American Public Opinion Landscape July, 2013
  2. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Current Political Landscape…………….……………………………….…...2 2. How Americans View the World ……………………………………..……7 3. Egypt …………………………….……………………………………………………12 4. Syria………………………………………………………………………………......17 5. Israel…………………………………………………………………………………..24 6. China……………………………………………………………....…………………27 7. Korea……………………………………………………………..………….…..…..31 Slide
  4. FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING THE U.S. 3 July 10-14, 2013 Economy in general 23% Unemployment / Jobs 19% Dissatisfaction with government 16% Healthcare 11% Federal budget deficit / Federal debt 8% Immigration / illegal aliens 6% Education 5% July 10-14, 2013 War (nonspecific)/Fear of war 2% Foreign aid / focus overseas 2% National security 1% Terrorism 1% International issues / problems 1% Lack of military defense 1% Situation/War in Afghanistan 1% What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? Source: Gallup Poll, July 10-14, 2013
  5. 4 Source: Aggregate Data. Latest poll on July 24, 2013 INCREASING PESSIMISM ABOUT THE COUNTRY’S DIRECTION RIGHT DIRECTION 28.3% WRONG TRACK 59.8% Steady Pessimism The trend shows a sharp increase in optimism between July 2012 and November 2012. It has since leveled off and is reversing.
  6. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL ON FOREIGN POLICY HAS TAKEN A HIT RECENTLY 5 Source: Aggregate Data as of July 24, 2013 APPROVAL % Overall approval 45% Foreign policy 41% The economy 40% Healthcare 39% Disapprove 46.4% Approve 41.1% Job Approval on Foreign Policy Still Better than on the Economy & Health Care Job Approval on Foreign Policy
  7. CONFIDENCE IN OBAMA HIGH, BUT DECLINING 6 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, March 4-18, 2013 How much confidence do you have in U.S. President Barack Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs – a lot of confidence, some confidence, not too much confidence, or no confidence at all? 74% 65% 61% 61% 57% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 % Confidence to do the right thing regarding world affairs Change 09-13 -17
  9. AMERICANS LEAST FAVORABLETOWARD IRAN; CANADA, GREAT BRITAIN, AND GERMANY, GET HIGHEST MARKS 8 Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2013 Total favorable Total unfavorable Canada 91% 5% Great Britain 88% 8% Germany 85% 10% Japan 81% 15% France 73% 22% India 68% 23% Israel 66% 29% Mexico 47% 49% Russia 44% 50% China 43% 52% Venezuela 40% 47% Total favorable Total unfavorable Egypt 40% 53% Saudi Arabia 36% 58% Cuba 34% 59% Libya 20% 72% Iraq 19% 76% Afghanistan 15% 80% Syria 14% 75% Pakistan 14% 81% North Korea 12% 84% Iran 9% 87% “No opinion” results not shown
  10. MOST AMERICANS SEE GREAT BRITAIN, CANADA AS ALLIES 9 Source: Gallup Poll, June 1-4, 2013  More see China as friend than foe  Most view Iran and North Korea as enemies of the United States  Vast majority also views Pakistan and Iraq as being unfriendly or enemies of the U.S.
  11. AMERICANS SEE WMDs, EXTREMISTS AS MAJOR THREAT 10 Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, March 4-18, 2013 23% 37% 40% 44% 52% 54% 56% 59% U.S. power and influence Political instability in Pakistan Global climate change China's power and influence Int'l financial instability Iran's nuclear program Islamic extremist groups N. Korea's nuclear program % saying each is a major threat
  12. 27% 43% 23% 6% Great deal Fair amount Not too much Not at all 11 In making international policy decisions, to what extent do you think the United States takes into account the interests of other countries around the world – a great deal, a fair amount, not too much, or not at all? STRONG MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVESTHE U.S. ACCOUNTS FORVIEWS OF OTHER COUNTRIES WHEN MAKING INTERNATIONAL POLICY DECISIONS think the U.S. takes the interest of other countries into account in making international policy decisions 70% Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, March 4-18, 2013 Note: “DK/Refused” not shown
  13. EGYPT 12
  14. FAVORABLE OPINION OF EGYPT DROPS 18 POINTS SINCE 2010 13 Just three years ago, 58% of Americans had a favorable opinion of Egypt. That number has fallen to 40%, while the percentage of Americans with an unfavorable view of Egypt has shot up from 29% to 53%. Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2013
  15. AMERICANS LESS INTERESTED IN EGYPT NEWS THAN DURING ARAB SPRING, BUT MOST SEE EVENTS IN EGYPT AS CRITICAL TO U.S. INTERESTS 14 How important to the interests of the United States is what happens in Egypt? Source: Pew Research Center, July 11-14, 2013 Interest in Egypt News Has Plummeted Since the Arab Spring Very important Somewhat important Not very important Don’t know 36% 47% 14% 3%
  16. STRONG MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. CAN HAVE SOME INFLUENCE IN EGYPT 15 A lot of influence 23% Some influence 48% Not much influence 18% No influence at all 6% Don’t know 5% How much influence do you think the U.S. can have on the current situation in Egypt? 71% think the U.S. can have at least some influence Source: Pew Research Center, July 11-14, 2013
  17. BUT AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY FEEL THE US SHOULD STAY OUT OF EGYPTIAN CIVIL UNREST 16 Which of the following two statements better describes your opinion of how the U.S. should respond to the civil unrest in Egypt? Source: United Technologies/National Journal, July 11-14, 2013 78% 16% The U.S. should mostly stay out of events in Egypt and allow the people there to resolve their differences The U.S. should do more to try to shape the government in Egypt and promote an end to violence “DK/Refused” results not shown
  18. 17 SYRIA
  19. UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF SYRIA CONTINUES TO RISE IN 2013 18 Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2013
  20. AMERICANS DO NOT EXPECT THAT DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO SUCCEED IN ENDING CIVIL WAR 19 Do you think the conflict in Syria can be successfully resolved using only economic and diplomatic efforts, or not? Source: Gallup Poll, May 28-29,2013 No, cannot 58% Yes, can 27% No opinion 16%
  21. BUT AMERICANS DO NOT SUPPORT US MILITARY INTERVENTION IN SYRIA 20 Suppose all economic and diplomatic efforts fail to end the civil war in Syria. If that happens, do you think the United States should—or should not—use military action to attempt to end the conflict? Source: Gallup Poll, May 28-29,2013 Yes, should No, shouldn't No opinion All Americans 24% 68% 8% Republican 31% 64% 5% Independent 23% 70% 8% Democrat 20% 72% 8%
  22. NEARLY TWO-IN-THREE AMERICANS THINK US INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA IS NOT IN NATIONAL INTEREST 21 No 61% Yes 27% Don’t know 13% Do you think it is in the national interest of the United States to be involved in the conflict in Syria, or not? Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, June 28 – July 8, 2013
  23. MAJORITY OF AMERICANS OPPOSE SENDING MILITARY AID TO SYRIAN REBELS 22 Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, June 28 - July 8, 2013 DK/NA Oppose Support 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 13% 59% 27% Do you support or oppose the U.S. sending arms and military supplies to anti-government groups in Syria?
  24. HOWEVER, NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS SUPPORT THE USE OF DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS ON SYRIAN TARGETS 23 49% 38% Should Should not Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, June 28 – July 8, 2013 Do you think the United States should or should not use weapons which don’t risk American lives, such as drones and cruise missiles, to attack Syrian government targets? “DK/Refused” results not shown
  25. ISRAEL
  26. AMERICANS CONTINUE TO HOLD A FAVORABLE OPINION OF ISRAEL 25 Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2013
  27. PLURALITY OF AMERICANS BACK INDEPENDENT PALESTINIAN STATE, BUT FAVOR PRESSURING PALESTINIANSTO MAKE COMPROMISES 26 Source: Gallup Poll, Feb 7-10, 2013 Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip? 44% 37% 19% Favor Oppose No opinion In order to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, do you think the United States should – put more pressure on the Palestinians to make the necessary compromises (or) put more pressure on the Israelis to make the necessary compromises? 48% 25% 10% 8% 10% More pressure on the Palestinians More pressure on the Israelis More pressure on both (vol.) Not put more pressure on either (vol.) No opinion
  28. 27 CHINA 27
  30. 29 Which comes closest to your view – China will eventually replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower; China has already replaced the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower; or China will never replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower? AMERICANS DIVIDED ON WHETHER CHINA IS OR WILL BE WORLD’S LEADING SUPERPOWER Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, March 4-18, 2013 2008 2009 2011 2013 Will eventually replace U.S. 31% 26% 34% 36% Has already replaced U.S. 5% 7% 12% 11% Total has or will replace U.S. 36% 33% 46% 47% Will never replace U.S. 54% 57% 45% 47% “DK/Refused” results not shown
  31. 30 Today, which ONE of the following do you think is the world’s leading economic power? BUT PLURALITY OF AMERICANS NOW VIEW CHINA AS WORLD’S LEADING ECONOMIC POWER Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, March 4-18, 2013 26% 33% 41% 43% 41% 44%46% 48% 38% 38% 40% 39% 7% 4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 China U.S. Japan The countries of the European Union “Other,” “None,” and “DK/Refused” results not shown
  32. 31 KOREA 31
  33. AMERICANS SAY U.S. SHOULD AID SOUTH KOREA IF ATTACKED 32 Source: Gallup Poll, April 2-3, 2013 If North Korea attacks South Korea, should the U.S. help defend South Korea with U.S. military forces or not? 60 years since the end of hostilities on the Korean peninsula, Americans still support defending South Korea militarily 55% Yes, should 34% no, should not 10% Don’t Know/ No opinion
  34. 33 GPG Research GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns. GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex international affairs topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (