Public Opinion Landscape - International Affairs

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Public Opinion Landscape - International Affairs

  1. 1. International Affairs: American Public Opinion Landscape March, 2014
  2. 2. 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Current Political Landscape…………….……………………………….…...2 2. How Americans View the World ……………………………………..……9 3. Ukraine…………………………….…………………………………………………12 4. Russia………………………………………………………………………….........19 5. Iran……………………………………………………………....………………….…2 3 6. Afghanistan……………….…………………………………..………….…..…..27 7. Israel…………………………………………………………………………………..33 8. China………………………………………………………………………………..…4 0 Slide
  3. 3. 2 CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 2
  4. 4. FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING THE U.S. 3 March 6-9, 2014 Unemployment / Jobs 23% Economy in general 20% Dissatisfaction with Government/Congress/Politicians 19% Poor Healthcare/Hospitals; High Cost of Healthcare 15% Federal Budget Deficit/ Federal Debt 8% Immigration/Illegal Aliens 6% Ethics/moral/religious/family decline; Dishonesty 5% March6-9, 2014 Foreign aid / focus overseas 4% War (nonspecific)/Fear of war 2% Situation with Russia 1% Lack of Military Defense 1% National security 1% War/conflict between Middle East nations * Situation/ War in Afghanistan * Situation in Syria * Situation in Iraq - What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? Source: Gallup Poll, March 6-9, 2014 * Indicates a number between 0 and 1%
  5. 5. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL ON FOREIGN POLICY HAS TAKEN A HIT RECENTLY 4 Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, Latest Poll as of March 12, 2014 APPROVAL % Overall approval 44% Foreign policy 42% The economy 40% Healthcare 40% Job Approval on Foreign Policy Still Better than on the Economy & Health Care Job Approval on Foreign Policy Disapprove 49.7% Approve 41.6%
  6. 6. A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THAT OBAMA IS NOT RESPECTED IN OTHER COUNTRIES 5 72% 56% 39% 24% 42% 57% Mar 12-15 2009 Apr 9-11 2010 Mar 7-9 2014 Respect him Don't have much respect Do you think leaders of other countries around the world have respect for Barack Obama, or do you think they don’t have much respect for him? Source: CNN Poll, March 7-9, 2014
  7. 7. PUBLIC SEES A GLOBAL LOSS OF RESPECT FOR THE UNITED STATES 6 More Respected 7% Less Respected 70% As Respected 19% Don't Know 3% Impressions of how the U.S. is perceived abroad are now as negative as they were during the Bush administration. Compared to the past, the U.S. is ___ by other countries these days... Jul - 04 Oct - 05 Aug - 06 Nov - 13 More respected 10% 9% 7% 7% Less respected 67% 66% 65% 70% As respected 20% 21% 23% 19% Don’t know 3% 4% 5% 3% Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013
  8. 8. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013 7 AMERICANS ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY TO WANT TO INTERVENE IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES Please tell me whether you agree or disagree with each of the following statements – The U.S. should mind its own business internationally and let other countries get along the best they can on their own. For the first time in fifty years, a majority of Americans believe that the United States should generally follow non- interventionism
  9. 9. THEREFORE - AMERICANS WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE EMPHASIS ON SAFETY AND SECURITY AT HOME RATHER THAN WORLD STABILITY 8 If you had to choose, would you rather see the U.S. place more emphasis on safety and security within the United States or making sure there is peace and stability throughout the world? Source: CNN/ORC Poll, March 7-9 2014 2% 28% 69% Unsure World peace and stability Safety, security within the U.S
  10. 10. HOW AMERICANS VIEW THE WORLD 9
  11. 11. AMERICANS LEAST FAVORABLETOWARD IRAN; CANADA, GREAT BRITAIN, AND GERMANY, GET HIGHEST MARKS 10 Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2013 Total favorable Total unfavorable Canada 93% 5% Great Britain 90% 6% Germany 81% 13% Japan 80% 15% France 78% 17% India 72% 21% Israel 72% 23% South Korea 64% 29% Mexico 58% 38% Egypt 45% 45% China 43% 53% Total favorable Total unfavorable Cuba 38% 57% Saudi Arabia 35% 57% Russia 34% 60% The Palestine Authority 19% 60% Libya 19% 70% Pakistan 17% 77% Iraq 16% 80% Afghanistan 14% 83% Syria 13% 78% Iran 12% 84% North Korea 11% 84% “No opinion” results not shown
  12. 12. AMERICANS SEE INTERNATIONALTERRORISM, NUCLEARWEAPONS AS CRITICALTHREATS 11 Source: Gallup Poll, February 6-9, 2014 28% 32% 46% 46% 52% 53% 57% 76% 77% Conflict between India and Pakistan Military power of Russia Conflict between Israel and the Palestinians Military power of China Economic power of China Conflict between North Korea and South Korea Islamic fundamentalism Development of nuclear weapons by Iran International terrorism % saying it’s a critical threat I am going to read you a list of possible threats to the vital interests of the United States in the next 10 years. For each one, please tell me if you see this as a critical threat, or not an important threat at all.
  13. 13. UKRAINE 12
  14. 14. A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS ARE CLOSELY FOLLOWING AND ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE 13 Very/ Somewhat closely 68% Not too closely 18% Not at all 14% How closely are you following the news about Russia’s involvement in the situation in Ukraine? Very/Som ewhat worried 67% Not too worried 21% Not worried at all 12% How worried are you that the current situation in Ukraine will develop into a larger regional conflict that could lea to the U.S. military getting involved? Source: Gallup Poll, March 6-9, 2014 *Answers for Don’t know are not shown
  15. 15. REACTIONS TO OBAMA’S HANDLING THE SITUATION HAVE BEEN MIXED 14 Source: NBC News/ Wallstreet Journal Poll, March 5-9 2014 NBC/WSJ: Do you generally approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is handling the situation between Russia and Ukraine? Approve Disapprove Not Sure 43% 40% 17% ABC News : Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation involving Russia and Ukraine? Do you feel that way strongly, or somewhat? Approve Disapprove No opinion 42% 43% 15% Source: ABC News, March 5-9, 2014 CNN/ORC Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Ukraine? Source: CNN/ORC Poll, March 7-9, 2014 Approve Disapprove No opinion 48% 43% 9% PEW Research Center Poll: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Obama administration is handling the situation involving Russia and Ukraine? Source: CNN/ORC Poll, March 7-9, 2014 Approve Disapprove No opinion 30% 44% 26%
  16. 16. PARTISAN SPLIT OVER APPROVAL OF OBAMA'S HANDLING THE SITUATION 15 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Obama administration is handling the situation involving Russia and Ukraine? Source: Pew Research Center Poll, March 6-9, 2014
  17. 17. AMERICANS WOULD RATHER NOT GET INVOLVED IN THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE 16 Not get too involved in the situation 56% Don't know/ Refused 15% Consider military option 8% Only consider economic and political options 19% Don't know/ Refused 2% Take a firm stand against russian actions 29% Thinking about the situation in Ukraine, do you think it is more important for the U.S. to take a firm stand against Russian actions or Not get too involved in the situation? Of the 29% who believe that the U.S. should take a firm stance, only a small number (8% of the total respondents) said they would consider a military option. Source: Pew Research Center Poll, March 6-9, 2014
  18. 18. AMERICANS FAVOR ECONOMIC SANCTIONS TO RESOLVE SITUATION; SENDING GROUND TROOPS LEAST FAVORABLE OPTION 17 Favor Oppose Unsure Imposing economic sanctions on Russia 59% 39% 2% Providing economic assistance to the Ukrainian government 46% 52% 2% Canceling the summit meeting between the leaders of Russia and the U.S. and its Western European allies 40% 58% 2% Sending weapons and other military supplies to the Ukrainian government 23% 76% 2% U.S. military action against Russian troops in Ukraine involving air strikes but no ground troops 17% 82% 2% Sending U.S. ground troops to Ukraine 12% 88% 1% Here are some actions which the United States and its allies might take to try to force Russia to remove its troops from the Crimean Peninsula and to make sure Russia does not send troops into other parts of Ukraine. Which of these actions do you favor and which do you oppose? Source: CNN/ ORC Poll, March 7-9, 2014
  19. 19. MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE RUSSIA’S ACTIONS IN THE UKRAINE ARE NOT JUSTIFIED 18 Justified 10% Not justified 68% Don’t know/ Refused 22% Source: Pew Research Center Poll, March 6-9, 2014 Do you think Russia was justified or not justified in sending troops into Ukraine?
  20. 20. RUSSIA 19
  21. 21. A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THAT RELATIONS WITH RUSSIA ARE IMPORTANT 20 Extremely , 31% Fairly, 34% Just Somewhat, 25% Not At All, 9% Not Sure, 1% How important are relations with – Russia – to the United States’ national interest – extremely important, fairly important, just somewhat important, or not important at all? Source: NBC News/ Wallstreet Journal Poll, March 5-9 2014 65% of Americans believe that having relations with Russia is important to the U.S.’ national interest
  22. 22. YET - RUSSIA IS INCREASINGLY SEEN AS AN ADVERSARY RATHER THAN AN ALLY 21 Source: NBC News/ Wallstreet Journal Poll, March 5-9 2013 56% 48% 52% 19% 29% 19% 35% 28% 26% 62% 49% 72% 1995 1996 2002 2008 2009 2014 Ally Adversary In general, do you think of Russia as more of an ally or more of an adversary? Answers for Both/Neither and Not Sure are not shown.
  23. 23. AMERICANS ARE DIVIDED ON THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEW COLD WAR 22 Source: CNN Poll, March 7-9 2014 Likely 48% Not likely 49% No opinion 3% Do you think it is likely or not likely that there will be a new cold war between the United States and Russia in the next few years?
  24. 24. IRAN 23
  25. 25. A NUCLEAR IRAN IS SEEN AS A MAJOR THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES 24 How much of a threat are each of the following international concerns to the well- being of the United States – Iran’s nuclear program? 91% of Americans believe that an Iranian nuclear program is a threat Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013 Major threat 69% Minor threat 23% Not a threat 5% No answer 3%
  26. 26. ADDRESSING IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS SEEN AS AN ABSOLUTE PRIORITY FOR THIS YEAR 25 Please tell me wither you think [addressing Iran’s nuclear program] should be an absolute priority for the Obama administration and THIS year’s Congress, it is something that can be delayed until next year, or something that you think the Obama administration and Congress should not pursue Absolute Priority For This Year, 60% Can Be Delayed Until Next Year, 23% Should Not Be Pursued, 12% Not Sure, 5% Source: NBC News/ Wallstreet Journal Poll, January 5-9 2014
  27. 27. AMERICANS APPROVE OF THE AGREEMENT BUT ARE NEGATIVE ABOUT THE OUTCOME 26 Do you approve, disapprove, or neither approve nor disapprove of the interim agreement reached between Iran and six world powers that is designed to curb Iran’s nuclear program Source: AP-GfK Poll, January 17-21 2014 60% 36% 2% Approve Disapprove Neither Likely 8% Somewhat likely 40% Not likely 52% How likely do you think it is that these initial steps towards curbing Iran’s nuclear program reached between Iran and six world powers will stop Iran from building its own nuclear weapon?
  28. 28. AFGHANISTAN 27
  29. 29. VIEWS ON THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN DEPEND ON QUESTION WORDING 28 Right decisio n 55% Wrong decisio n 37% No answer 8% Do you think the United States made the right decision or the wrong decision in using military force in Afghanistan? Yes, a mistake 49% No, not a mistake 48% No opinion 3% Looking back, do you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in Afghanistan? Source: Gallup Poll, February 6-9, 2014Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6th=, 2013
  30. 30. TREND SHOWS THAT MORE VIEW SENDING THE TROOPS AS A MISTAKE AS WAR DRAGGED ON 29 Looking back, do you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in Afghanistan? Source: Gallup Poll February 6-9, 2014
  31. 31. A PLURALITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THAT THE WAR HAS MADE THEM SAFER 30 Safer Less Safe Has not made a difference No answer 43% 26% 30% 2% Overall, do you think each of the following has made the United States [RANDOMIZE: safer from terrorist, less safe from terrorism] or hasn’t it made a difference – The war in Afghanistan? Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013
  32. 32. BUT - MOST AMERICANS BELIEVE THAT THE U.S. HAS MOSTLY FAILED IN AFGHANISTAN 31 Mostly succeeded 38% Mostly failed 52% Don't know 10% In achieving its goals in Afghanistan, U.S. has… Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 15-19, 2014
  33. 33. ISRAEL
  34. 34. AMERICAN SYMPATHIES FOR ISRAEL CONTINUE TO INCREASE; MATCH ALL TIME HIGH 33 Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2014 In the Middle East situation, are you sympathies more with the Israelis or more with the Palestinians?
  35. 35. A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THAT RELATIONS WITH ISRAEL ARE IMPORTANT 34 How important are relations with – Israel– to the United States’ national interest – extremely important, fairly important, just somewhat important, or not important at all? Extremely , 37% Fairly, 27% Just Somewhat, 27% Not At All, 7% Not Sure, 2% 64% of Americans believe that having relations with Israel is important to the U.S.’ national interest Source: NBC News/ Wallstreet Journal Poll, March 5-9, 2014
  36. 36. A PLURALITY OF AMERICANS CONTINUE TO FAVOR AN INDEPENDENT PALESTINIAN STATE 35 Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2014 Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza strip?
  37. 37. AMERICANS ARE POSITIVE ABOUT A PEACEFUL SOLUTION BETWEEN ISRAEL AND PALESTINE 36 Yes 77% No 21% No answer 2% Do you think a way can be found for Israel and an independent Palestine state to exist peacefully with each other, or not? Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013
  38. 38. HOWEVER – AMERICANS ARE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE 37 Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2014 Do you think there will or will not come a time when Israel and the Arab nations will be able to settle their differences and live in peace?
  39. 39. AND THEY DO NOT BELIEVE THAT THE U.S. SHOULD BE MORE INVOLVED 38 A plurality (39%) of Americans believe that the U.S. should be less involved In terms of resolving the dispute between Israel and the Palestinians, do you think the United States should be [RANDOMIZE: more involved than it is now, less involved than it is now], or as involved as it currently is? As involved as it currently is Less involved More involved 36% 39% 21% * No answer results not shown Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013
  40. 40. 39 CHINA 39
  41. 41. 14% 10% 10% 11% 14% 16% 23% 20% 2% 22% 15% 18% 9% 10% 16% 8% 14% 31% 26% 25% 25% 32% 38% 22% 21% 22% 7% 5% 7% 2001 2005 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 2014 China North Korea Iran Iraq CHINA CONSIDERED THE UNITED STATES’ GREATEST ENEMY 40 What one country anywhere in the world do you consider to be the United States’ greatest enemy today? [OPEN-ENDED] Source: Gallup Poll, February 6-9, 2014
  42. 42. HOWEVER – WHEN GIVEN THE OPTION, A PLURALITY OF AMERICANS LABEL CHINA AS A SERIOUS PROBLEM RATHER THAN AN ADVERSARY 41 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% No answer Not much of a problem A serious problem, but not an adversary An adversary 6% 28% 43% 23% All things considered, which of these descriptions comes closest to your view of China today? Do you think China is… Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013
  43. 43. AMERICANS BELIEVE THAT RELATIONS WITH CHINA ARE IMPORTANT TO THE UNITED STATES’ NATIONAL INTEREST 42 Extremely, 47% Fairly, 29% Just Somewhat, 19% Not At All, 4% Not Sure, 1% How important are relations with - China - to the United States’ national interest – extremely important, fairly important, just somewhat important, or not important at all? 76% of Americans believe that having relations with China is important to the U.S.’ national interest Source: NBC News/ Wallstreet Journal Poll, March 5-9 2014
  44. 44. 43 Which one of the following do you think is the leading economic power in the world today{ROTATED: the United States, the European Union, Russia, China, Japan, India? A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS VIEW CHINA AS WORLD’S LEADING ECONOMIC POWER “Other,” “None,” and “Don’t Know/Refused” results not shown Source: Gallup Poll, February 6-9, 2014 China United States European Union 2014 52% 31% 7% 2013 53% 32% 8% 2012 53% 33% 7% 2011 52% 32% 7%
  45. 45. AMERICANS BELIEVETHAT CHINAWILL BECOME MORE DEMOCRATIC INTHE NEXT 10YEARS 44 More democratic 52% About the same as it is now 40% Less democratic 6% No answer 2% Over the next ten years, do you think each of the following will become more democratic, less democratic, or will it be about the same – China? Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 30 – November 6, 2013
  46. 46. 45 GPG Research GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns. GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex international affairs topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (Jboxt@gpgdc.com)
  47. 47. 46 Source: CNN Poll, March 7-9 2014
  48. 48. 47 Source: CNN Poll, March 7-9 2014

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