Public Opinion Landscape - Government Shutdown Aftermath

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  • 1. The Public Opinion Landscape – What We Learned From The Government Shutdown and Debt Ceiling Debate October 18, 2013
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide 1. Perceptions of State of the Nation / Economic Conditions 2 2. Views on Obama & Congress 9 3. Party Images 15 1
  • 3. Perceptions of State of the Nation / Economic Conditions 2
  • 4. DISSATISFACTION WITH STATE OF THE NATION NEARS PEAK All in all, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in this country today? 3 Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013
  • 5. CONCERN ABOUT SHUTDOWN’S ECONOMIC IMPACT IS SUBSTANTIAL Thinking about the government shutdown that started on October 1st… How concerned, if at all, are you about the government shutdown’s effect on the U.S. economy? 57% 26% 10% Very concerned Somewhat concerned Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013 6% Not too concerned Not at all concerned Note: “DK/REF” results are not shown. 4
  • 6. ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE SLIDES DURING SHUTDOWN Lowest Gallup has measured since late November/early December 2011 5 Source: Gallup Poll, October 7-13, 2013
  • 7. MORE AMERICANS NOW THINK ECONOMY WILL GET WORSE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT YEAR During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 40% 42% 35% 23% 38% 46% 33% 41% 45% 38% 35% 27% 36% 19% 19% 20% 42% 49% 47% 48% 45% 38% 32% 34% 33% 32% 31% 28% 25% 18% 18% 18% 21% 42% Will get worse 27% 38% Will stay the same 24% 17% Will get better 9% 0% 6 Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 7-9, 2013
  • 8. AMERICANS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT ECONOMY GETTING BETTER Thinking about President Obama and Republicans in Congress and their negotiations about the budget, does it make you feel more confident or less confident about the economy getting better or does it not make a difference in your opinion one way or the other? More confident 7% 63% Less confident No difference Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, October 7-9, 2013 28% Note: “Not Sure” results are not shown. 7
  • 9. DYSFUNCTIONAL GOVERNMENT SURPASSES ECONOMY AS TOP U.S. PROBLEM Highest percentage citing dysfunctional government in Gallup history Most Important Problem – October 2013 Dissatisfaction with government (33%) Healthcare (12%) Economy in general (19% Federal budget deficit / Federal debt (12%) Unemployment / jobs (12%) Lack of money (5%) 8 Source: Gallup Poll, October 3-6, 2013
  • 10. Views on Obama & Congress 9
  • 11. OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB APPROVAL RATING FADES Overall Job Approval DISAPPROVE 51.1% APPROVE 43.3% 10 Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of October 18, 2013
  • 12. CONGRESSIONAL JOB APPROVAL FALLS to 11% AMID THE SHUTDOWN Congress Overall Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Own Representative Do you approve or disapprove of the way the representative from your congressional district is handling his or her job? Approve Disapprove Oct-13 44% 43% May-13 46% 41% Mar-92 58% 31% Oct-91 64% 27% Nov-90 55% 28% Aug-90 66% 19% Mar-77 55% 18% 11 Source: Gallup Poll, October 3-6, 2013
  • 13. RECORD ANTI-INCUMBENCY MOOD Would you like to see your representative in Congress be re-elected in the next congressional election, or not? Yes 66% 62% Regardless of how you feel about your own representative, would you like to see most members of Congress re-elected in the next congressional election, or not? 58% 49% 57% No 52% 48% No 74% 38% 29% 22% 22% 23% 25% 29% Yes 18% Dk/Ref 8% 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 12 Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013
  • 14. VIEWS OF CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS MORE NEGATIVE THAN POSITIVE Would you say your overall opinion of [INSERT NAME] is very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable? Favorable Nancy Pelosi Unfavorable 34% Harry Reid 27% John Boehner 26% 49% 27% Ted Cruz Mitch McConnell Unsure 23% 14% No rating 39% 17% 34% 50% 23% 33% 40% 37% 40% 13 Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013
  • 15. DEMOCRATS HOLD SLIGHT LEAD ON CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT FOR 2014 Thinking about the next congressional elections that will be coming up about a year from now… If the elections for U.S. Congress were being held TODAY, would you vote for the Republican Party’s candidate or the Democratic Party’s candidate for Congress in your district? Republican candidate 49% 43% Democratic candidate Other / DK/Ref Unsure 14% 8% 14 Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013
  • 16. Party Images 15
  • 17. DISAPPROVAL OF GOP PEAKS IN BLAME FOR THE BUDGET CRISIS Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way [INSERT] is/are handling negotiations over the federal budget? % Disapprove 74% 63% 56% 50% 61% 53% Republicans in Congress Democrats in Congress Barack Obama 9/29/2013 10/6/2013 10/13/2013 16 Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, October 9-13, 2013
  • 18. PARTY IMAGES: REPUBLICAN FAVORABILITY SINKS TO RECORD LOW; FALLS 10% SINCE SEPTEMBER 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Democrat % Favorable 55% 54% 57% 55% 52% 51% 52% 50% 61% 53% 43% 45% 56% 55% 55% 47% 52% 51% 59% 48% 52% Republican 48% 55% 56% 53% 42% 51% 36% 42% 41% 34% 46% 45% 46% 47% 43% 41% 44% 42% 39% 38% 28% Please tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of each of the following parties. How about -- [the Republican Party / the Democratic Party]? 17 Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 19. UNFAVORABLE VIEWS OF THE TEA PARTY HAVE RISEN Unfavorable Views of Tea Party Have Nearly Doubled Since 2010 Very Unfavorable Views of Tea Party Have Tripled Since 2010 18 Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 9-13, 2013
  • 20. PERCEIVED NEED FOR A THIRD PARTY REACHES NEW HIGH In your view, do the Republican and Democratic parties do an adequate job representing the American people, or do they do such a poor job that a third major party is needed? 19 Source: Gallup Poll, October 3-6, 2013
  • 21. GPG Research GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns. GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpgdc.com) 20