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Public Opinion Landscape - Foreign Policy - October 22
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Public Opinion Landscape - Foreign Policy - October 22

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    Public Opinion Landscape - Foreign Policy - October 22 Public Opinion Landscape - Foreign Policy - October 22 Presentation Transcript

    • Foreign Policy:Global and American Public Opinion Landscape October, 2012 0
    • TABLE OF CONTENTS  Current Political Landscape……………………………………………………….………2  Political Analysis: Election 2012………………………………………………..……….5  Foreign Policy of the Obama Administration…………………………….…..…..8  Global Views of the U.S……………………………………………………………………11  The Role of the U.S. in the World……………………………………………………..16  Afghanistan………………………………………………………………………….............20  The Middle East………………………………………………………………………….......23  Libya…………………………………………………………………………………………….27  Israel……………………………………………………………………………………….……30  Iran ……………………………………………………………………………………………..34  Syria ……………………………………………………………………………………………38  The Rise of China…………………………………………………………………………..…41 1
    • CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 2
    • FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING THE U.S. What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? October October 15-16, 2012 15-16, 2012 Economy in general 37% War/Afghanistan/Iraq 3% Unemployment/Jobs 26% National security 2% Federal budget deficit/ Federal debt 12% Immigration/Illegal aliens 2% Dissatisfaction with government 9% Medicare/Care for elderly 2% Health care 7% Lack of money 5% Education 4% Ethical/moral/family decline 4% 3Source: Gallup, Oct 15-16, 2012.
    • THE GAP BETWEEN THOSE WHO THINK THE COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK AND THOSE WHO THINK THE COUNTRY IS HEADED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION IS NARROWING Wrong Track 53.9% Right Direction 40.3% 4Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data. Latest poll on Oct 22, 2012.
    • Political Analysis: Election 2012 5
    • OBAMA STILL MORE TRUSTED ON FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES Trust to Handle the Issues: Obama Romney 54% 52% 50% 51% 48%46% 48%47% 47%46% 41% 43% 43% 43% Medicare Crisis International Taxes Economy Health care Deficit affairs 6Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, Oct 10-13, 2012.
    • YET ON IRAN & INSTABILITY IN THE MIDEAST, VOTERS ARE MORE EVENLY DIVIDED; ROMNEY SEEN AS BETTER ABLE TO HANDLE CHINA Thinking about a few specific foreign policy issues… do you think Mitt Romney or Barack Obama would do the better job dealing with the issue of... Barack Obama Mitt Romney Neither/Don’t know 47% 49% 45% 44% 42% 40% 11% 12% 11% Irans nuclear program Political instability in Middle Chinas trade policies Eastern countries 7Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 4-7, 2012.
    • Foreign Policy of the Obama Administration 8
    • OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL IS GREATER ON FOREIGN POLICY THAN OTHER ISSUES % Approve 50.0% Foreign Policy 50% Overall approval 49% The economy 46 % Healthcare 32% Disapprove 44.9% 9Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data. Latest poll on Oct 22, 2012.
    • MANY AMERICANS CONCERNED THE UNITED STATES IS LESS RESPECTED AND FEARED TODAY Do you think the policies of the Obama administration Do you think the policies of the Obama administration have made the United States more respected around have made the United States more feared around the the world today, less respected or have they not made world today, less feared or have they not made much much of a difference either way? of a difference either way? 42% 42% 39% 32% 26% 13% More Less No More Less No respected respected difference feared feared difference 10Source: Fox News Poll, Sept 24-26, 2012.
    • GLOBAL VIEWS OF THE U.S. 11
    • WESTERN EUROPE, JAPAN AND BRAZIL ARE MOST SUPPORTIVE OF OBAMA’S REELECTION Would you like U.S. President Barack Obama to be reelected or not? France 92% Germany 89% Britain 73% Brazil 72% Spain 71% Italy 69% Czech Republic 67% Japan 66% United States 49% Greece 45% Poland 40% Turkey 39% India 38% % Yes Tunisia 37% Mexico 35% China 31% Lebanon 27% Russia 25% Jordan 22% Egypt 18% Pakitstan 7% 12Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring 2012.
    • PAKISTAN, EGYPT, RUSSIA AND CHINA HAVE LEAST CONFIDENCE IN PRESIDENT OBAMA How much confidence do you have in U.S. President Barack Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs – a lot of confidence, some confidence, not too much confidence, or no confidence at all? Germany 87% France 86% Britain 80% Czech Republic 77% Japan 74% Italy 73% Brazil 68% Spain 61% United States 61% Poland 50% Mexico 42% India 41% Lebanon 39% China 38% Russia 36% Greece 30% A lot of confidence Egypt 29% Tunisia 28% Some confidence Turkey 24% Jordan 22% Pakistan 7% *darker colors indicate intensity 13Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring 2012.
    • REGIONS OF CONFLICT SHOW LEAST APPROVAL OF OBAMA’S INTERNATIONAL POLICIES Overall do you approve or disapprove of the international policies of President Barack Obama? Germany 83% Czech Republic 65% Britain 63% Spain 63% Italy 61% Brazil 59% Japan 58% United States 54% Poland 50% France 48% Lebanon 43% Mexico 39% India 34% % Approve China 27% Greece 26% Tunisia 22% Russia 22% Turkey 20% Egypt 15% Jordan 13% Pakitstan 8% 14Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring 2012.
    • EUROPEAN UNION, JAPAN AND BRAZIL APPROVE OF OBAMA’S GLOBAL ECONOMIC POLICY Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is dealing with global economic problems? France 65% Germany 61% Italy 58% Britain 57% Japan 57% Spain 55% Brazil 54% United States 50% Poland 49% Czech Republic 45% Lebanon 41% Mexico 39% India 34% % Approve China 27% Tunisia 25% Greece 22% Russia 22% Jordan 19% Egypt 17% Turkey 13% Pakitstan 7% 15Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring 2012.
    • U.S. ROLE IN THE WORLD 16
    • MAJORITY THINKS U.S. SHOULD TAKE SHARED LEADERSHIP ROLE IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS What kind of leadership role should the United States Asked of those who believe the United States play in the world? Should it be the SINGLE world should play a SHARED leadership role: Should leader, or should it play a SHARED leadership role, or the United States be the most assertive of the should it not play any leadership role? leading nations, or should it be no more or less assertive than other leading nations? 74% Don’t Know/Refused 4% 33% 62% The most No more or less assertive assertive than other 9% 12% leading nations Be the single Play a shared Not play any world leader leadership leadership role role 17Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring, 2012.
    • MAJORITY BELIEVES THE U.S. ACCOUNTS FOR VIEWS OF OTHER COUNTRIES ON INTERNATIONAL POLICY DECISIONS In general, to what extent do you think the United States takes into account the interests of other countries around the world in making international policy decisions – a great deal, a fair amount, not too much, not at all? 80% think the U.S. takes the interest of other countries into account in making international policy decisions 41% 39% 14% 3% 2% Great deal Fair amount Not too much Not at all DK/Refused 18Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring, 2012.
    • AND THEY RECOGNIZE A WIDE RANGE OF NATIONS AS THREATS; CHINA, NORTH KOREA, AND IRAN ARE SEEN AS MOST DANGEROUS What country in the world, if any, represents the greatest danger to the United States? Iran 15% China 24% North Korea 12% Russia 3% Afghanistan 7% Iraq 7% Pakistan 3% 19Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring, 2012.
    • AFGHANISTAN
    • MORE NOW THINK THAT THE WAR IN AFGHANISTAN IS NOT GOING WELL Thinking about Afghanistan, how well is the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan going? Very/Fairly well Not too/Not at all well 57% 55% 52% 53% 51% 53% 48% 48% 49% 50% 49% 45% 47% 45% 43% 45% 43% 44% 40% 40% 41% 40% 36% 37% 38% 35% Jan, Nov, Dec, Mar, Jun, Jul, Dec, Apr, Jun, Jan, Mar, Apr, Oct, 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 21Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 4-7, 2012.
    • MOST CONTINUE TO FAVOR QUICK TROOP PULLOUT FROM AFGHANISTAN; PLURALITY SUPPORT OBAMA’S PACE OF WITHDRAWAL Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Afghanistan until the situation has stabilized, or do you think the U.S. should remove troops as soon as possible? From what you’ve read and heard, do you think Barack Obama is removing U.S. troops from Afghanistan too quickly, not quickly enough or is he handling this about right? Too quickly 17% Not quickly enough 28% About right 46% Don’t know/refused 9% 22Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 4-7, 2012.
    • THE MIDDLE EAST 23
    • MAJORITY PESSIMISTIC OF UPRISING IN THE MIDDLE EAST LEADING TO IMPROVEMENTS As you may know, recent protests and uprisings in Do you think these changes in political leadership in Middle Eastern countries, such as Egypt and Libya, the Middle East will end up being good for the have led to major changes in political leadership. United States, bad for the United States or won’t From what you have read and heard, do you think have much effect on the United States? these changes will lead to lasting improvements for people living in these countries, or not? 57% DK/Refused Good 12% for U.S. 14% 25% Won’t have 18% much effect Bad for U.S. 38% 36% Yes, will lead to No, will not lead Don’t lasting to lasting know/Refused improvements improvements 24Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 4-7, 2012.
    • MAJORITY FAVOR STABILITY OVER DEMOCRACY IN THE MIDDLE EAST Thinking about the political situation in the Middle East, which is more important: Democratic governments, even if there is less stability in the region or Stable governments, even if there is less democracy in the region? Don’t Democratic know/refused 11% govts, even if there is less stability 37% Stable govts, even if there is less democracy 52% 25Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 4-7, 2012.
    • AND PUBLIC FAVORS LESS U.S. INVOLVEMENT IN THE REGION When it comes to recent changes in political leadership in Middle Eastern countries such as Egypt and Libya, do you think the United States should be more involved or less involved than it currently is? More involved 23% Less involved 63% Neither/As involved as we should be 4% Don’t know/Refused 10% 26Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 4-7, 2012.
    • LIBYA 27
    • AMERICANS TROUBLED BY THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION’S RESPONSE TO THE ATTACKS IN LIBYA In the aftermath of the attacks on U.S. diplomatic facilities in Which of the following better describes how you feel Libya, the Obama administration falsely claimed it was a about the Obama administration initially giving false spontaneous assault in response to an offensive online video, information in public statements about the September even though the administration had intelligence reports that the attack in Libya that killed a U.S. ambassador and three attacks were connected to terrorist groups tied to al Qaeda. other Americans? Which of the following do you think best describes why Obama administration officials gave false information in their early public statements about the September attacks in Libya? 67% They did it for diplomatic reasons 26% They did it to help the 26% presidents campaign 37% 8% They just made a mistake 23% Its troubling Its not much Don’t know of a concern Don’t know 14% 28Source: Fox News Poll, Oct 7-9, 2012.
    • APPROVAL OF OBAMA’S HANDLING OF THE SITUATION IN LIBYA HAS DECREASED And please tell me if you approve, disapprove or neither approve nor disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the situation in Libya. Mar-11 May-11 Sep-12 57% 54% Latest Results from 45% Fox News Poll (Oct. 7-9): 43% 41% 37% Approve 37% 46% Disapprove 3% 5% 2% Approve Disapprove Neither 29Source: AP-GfK Poll, Sept 13-17, 2012.
    • ISRAEL 30
    • MAJORITY PREFER THE U.S. NOT TAKE EITHER SIDE IN THE ISRAELI-PALENSTINIAN CONFLICT Percentage who think the United States should do each of the following in the Middle East conflict. Take Israels side 30% Not take either side 65% Take the Palestinians side 3% 31Source: 2012 Chicago Council Survey.
    • AMERICANS FAVOR THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN INDEPENDENT PALESTINIAN STATE Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip? Unsure 12% Favor Oppose 51% 37% 32Source: Gallup Poll, Feb 2-5, 2012.
    • PERCEPTION OF OVERALL U.S. RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL SEEN AS BETTER THAN OBAMA’S RELATIONSHIP WITH ISRAEL Thinking about the relationship between the Do you think the Obama administration has been United States and Israel. Is the U.S. too supportive too supportive of the democratic state of Israel, of Israel, not supportive enough of Israel, or is the not supportive enough, or have the policies been U.S. support of Israel about right? about right? 41% 42% 37% 25% 22% 11% 10% 11% Too Not About right Unsure Too Not About right Unsure supportive supportive supportive supportive enough enough 33Source: Pew Research Center, Oct 4-7, 2012. Source: Fox News Poll, Sept 24-26, 2012.
    • IRAN 34
    • IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IS SEEN AS A MAJOR THREAT; MAJORITY SUPPORT U.S. MILIRATY ACTION Do you think that Iran’s nuclear program is a major threat, a Do you support or oppose the United minor threat or not a threat to the well-being of the United States taking military action to keep Iran States? from getting nuclear weapons? Don’t 70% Depends know 3% 7% Oppose Support 28% 62% 21% 4% 5% Major threat Minor threat Not a threat Don’t know/refused Source: Fox News Poll, Oct 7-9, 2012. 35Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring 2012.
    • MAJORITY IN FAVOR OF MILITARY ACTION IN IRAN IF THEY ARE CLOSE TO DEVELOPING NUCLEAR WEAPON If Iran continues with its nuclear research and is close to developing a nuclear weapon, do you believe that the United States should or should not initiate military action to destroy Iran’s ability to make nuclear weapons? Feel strongly Do not feel strongly 58% 13% 33% 10% 44% 23% 9% Should initiate military Should NOT initiate military Not sure action action 36Source: NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Sept 26-30, 2012. *darker colors indicate intensity
    • YET, WHEN GIVEN THE OPTION OF ALLOWING MORE DIPLOMACY, SUPPORT FOR MILITARY ACTION DECREASES Turning to the situation with Iran potentially developing nuclear weapons, which of the following is the best approach for the U.S.? To join an Israeli attack to stop what Israel considers Category 1 32% a threat to its existence To give diplomacy and economic sanctions more Category 2 time and to 49% discourage Israel from attacking now Not sure Category 3 19% 37Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, Sept 21-24, 2012.
    • SYRIA 38
    • MAJORITY OF AMERICANS CONCERNED ABOUT THE SITUATION IN SYRIA In general, how concerned are you about the situation in Syria: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not very concerned, or not concerned at all? Unsure 1% Not at all concerned Not very 11% Very concerned concerned 29% 15% Somewhat concerned 72% 43% of Americans are concerned 39Source: CNN/ORC Poll, Aug 7-8, 2012.
    • SUPPORT FOR SANCTIONS AND A NO-FLY ZONE Percentage who support or oppose the United States and its allies taking each of the following actions with respect to Syria. Oppose Support Increasing economic and diplomatic sanctions on Syria 32% 63% Enforcing a no-fly zone over Syria 36% 58% Sending arms and supplies to 67% 27% antigovernment groups in Syria Bombing Syrian air defenses 72% 22% Sending troops into Syria 81% 14% 40Source: 2012 Chicago Council Survey.
    • THE RISE OF CHINA 41
    • ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF AMERICANS VIEWS CHINA AS A MAJOR THREAT, MOST ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH CHINA’S ECONOMIC STRENGTH I’d like your opinion about some possible Which concerns you more about China – its international concerns for the U.S. Do you think that economic strength OR its military strength? China’s emergence as a world power is a major threat, minor threat or not a threat to the well-being of the United States? 59% Not a DK/Refused 5% threat 9% Major 28% Minor threat threat 52% 35% Economic Military strength strength 42Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring, 2012.
    • AMERICANS VERY CONCERNED ABOUT ECONOMIC ISSUES RELATED TO CHINA Now I am going to read you a list of things that may be problems for the U.S. Do you think this is a very serious problem, somewhat serious problem, not too serious a problem, or not a problem at all? Very serious problem Somewhat serious American debt held by China 79% Loss of U.S. jobs to China 66% The U.S. trade deficit with China 72% Chinas intellectual property infringement 90% Cyber attacks from China 89% Chinas impact on the global environment 81% Chinas growing military power 93% Chinas policies on human rights 81% Chinas exchange rate policy 92% Tensions between China and Taiwan 82% 43 *darker colors indicate intensitySource: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring, 2012.
    • PLURALITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVE THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION IS NOT BEING TOUGH ENOUGH IN ITS DEALINGS WITH CHINA In your opinion, is the Obama administration being too tough, not tough enough, or about right in its dealings with China? 45% 39% 14% 2% Too tough Not tough enough About right DK/Refused 44Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Spring, 2012.
    • GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex international affairs topicswith diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projectivetechniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape ourclients’ messaging and strategy.For more information about this presentation or to find out moreabout GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (Jboxt@gpgdc.com) 45