The 2012 presidential election between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney is too close to call nationally. The electoral map scenarios lay out various outcomes depending on the results in several battleground

1. Election 2012:
A Brief Overview and Analysis November 5, 2012

2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..4
2. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race..…………………….…….8
3. Electoral Map Scenarios…………………………...……………..………...11
4. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……23
5. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...26
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3. RECAP: WHAT’S AT STAKE
Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second
Presidency: term in office versus Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent,
seeking to become the 45th president of the United States.
Republicans Democrats
Senate:
33 seats being contested.
Republicans need to win 4 seats~ 47 53*
from the Democrats to gain
- +6
control of the Senate.
Republicans Democrats
All 435 seats being contested.
House: Democrats need to win 25 seats
from the Republicans to gain
240** 190***
control of the House. +50 -
Governor: 11 governorships being
contested.
* 51 Democrats + 2 Independents
** 2 seats are vacant (MI-11, KY-4)
*** 3 seats are vacant (NJ-10, WA-1, CA-18)
3
~ if Romney wins, only need to win 3 seats

4. Political Context
4

5. NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG
TRACK TRENDING DOWN; ECONOMY REMAINS TOP
ISSUE Most important problem:
As of November 4, 2012 PROBLEM %
The economy 37
Unemployment 26
WRONG TRACK 53.3% Federal budget deficit 12
Dissatisfaction with gov’t 9
Health care 7
Lack of money 5
Education 4
Foreign aid/Focus overseas 4
Ethical/moral/family decline 4
RIGHT DIRECTION 40.7%
War/Afghanistan/Iraq 3
Immigration 2
National security 2
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data Care for elderly/Medicare 2
Source: Gallup, Oct 15-16, 2012
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6. OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL IS DIVIDED;
AMERICANS APPROVE OF HIS HANDLING OF
HURRICANE SANDY
Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the
job that President Obama is doing on this issue…
NET NET
Issue APPROVE DISAPPROVE
APPROVE 48.8% The economy 47% 52%
The federal
budget and 38% 60%
spending
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Oct 29-Nov 1, 2012
DISAPPROVE 48.1% In general, do you approve or disapprove of the
way Barack Obama is handling the aftermath of
Hurricane Sandy?
APPROVE DISAPPROVE
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Nov. 5 67% 16%
Source: NBC News/WSJ Poll, Nov 1-3, 2012 6

7. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT
PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% 50%
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
President’s in red lost re-election
7
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data

8. Battle for the Presidency:
The Horse Race
8

9. AS WE NEAR THE FINISH LINE, THE NATIONAL
RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL
From October 5th – November 5th
OBAMA 47.8%
+0.4
ROMNEY 47.4%
Second Debate Third Debate Hurricane Sandy
Four Years Ago Day Before Election: Eight Years Ago Day Before Election:
October 25, 2008 % October 25, 2004 %
Obama 51.6 Bush 48.4
McCain 44.3 Kerry 46.9
Obama +7.3 Bush +1.5
9
Source: Real Clear Politics

10. VOTERS THINK OBAMA WILL WIN
Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think
will win the election -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?
91%
76%
57% 50%
36% 40% Obama
15% Romney
5%
All Democrats Independents Republicans
Note: “Other” and “No
opinion” results not shown
Trends for Comparison:
Sept 5-7, 2008 % Oct 14-16, 2004 % Sept 15-17, 2000 %
Obama 52 Bush 56 Gore 52
McCain 44 Kerry 36 Bush 35
10
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, November 2-4, 2012

11. Electoral Map Scenarios
11
11

12. A RECAP OF 2008 ELECTION
Obama McCain
365 173
11 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 31 MA
3 17 12
5 4 7 21 RI
1
21 11 20
4
55 5 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 11 8KY 7 15
11 15
NC MD DE
10 5 7 6
10 3
NM
8 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 15 3
34 9
27
4
12

13. OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (1)
- Lose Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 303 Romney: 235 13

14. OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (2)
- Lose Colorado, Florida, Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 290 Romney: 248 14

15. OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (3)
- Lose Colorado, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 281 Romney: 257 15

16. OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (4)
- Lose Indiana, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 272 Romney: 266 16

17. ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (1)
- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Colorado
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Romney: 275 Obama: 263 17

18. ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (2)
- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and Indiana
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Romney: 270 Obama: 268 18

19. ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (3)
- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado,
Nevada and Indiana
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Romney: 273 Obama: 265 19

20. ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (4)
- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado,
and Indiana
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Romney: 279 Obama: 259 20

21. TIE PROJECTION (1)
- Romney captures Nevada, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia,
Indiana, and Iowa
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4
Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 269 Republicans: 269
21

22. TIE PROJECTION (2)
- Romney captures Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin
Obama Republican
Party change from ‘08
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4
Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 269 Republicans: 269
22

23. Battleground States
23

24. THE ELECTORAL MAP
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 201 Toss-Up: 146 Romney: 191 24
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of November 5, 2012)

25. OBAMA LEADS IN EIGHT TOSS-UP STATES,
ROMNEY LEADS IN TWO
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES
States Obama Romney Obama Romney
Colorado 48.2% 47.6% 9 0
Florida 47.7% 49.5% 0 29
Iowa 48.8% 45.8% 6 0
Michigan 49.2% 45.4% 16 0
Nevada 50.2% 47.4% 6 0
New Hampshire 49.7% 47.7% 4 0
North Carolina 46.2% 49.2% 0 15
Ohio 49.4% 46.5% 18 0
Virginia 48.0% 47.7% 13 0
Wisconsin 50.4% 46.2% 10 0
Swing State Voters 82 44
Leaning/Likely State Voters 221 191
Total Overall Votes 303 235
25
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of November 5, 2012

26. Battle for Congress
26

27. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Likely Rep
Likely Dem (7) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2)
(0)
ME* (Open) – Republican CT (Open) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican AZ (Open) – Republican
HI (Open) – Democrat FL (Nelson) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican NE (Open) – Democrat
MI (Stabenow) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat
NM (Open) – Democrat OH (Brown) – Democrat NV (Heller) – Republican
NJ (Menendez) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat ND (Open) – Democrat
WA (Cantwell) – Democrat VA (Open) – Democrat
WV (Manchin) – Democrat WI (Open) – Democrat
27
*Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of November 5, 2012 he wins the open Maine seat

28. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
(10/29 – 11/3) (10/24-11/3)
(10/12-10/28)
Rehberg : 48% Berg: 49%
(10/25-11/3) Warren: 50%
Baldwin: 49% Brown: 47%
Tester: 47% Heitkamp: 43% Thompson: 46%
(10/15-11/2)
ND Murphy: 49%
OR MT
MN McMahon: 44% NH
WI MA
Donnelly: 45% CT
Mourdock: 42% PA
NV Casey:
(10/10-11/1)
CO IN OH 48%
Heller: 47% MO VA
KY Smith:
Berkley: 44% NC 43%
(10/22-10/29) AZ NM (10/23-11/3)
GA
Kaine: 49%
Allen: 47%
Flake: 51% McCaskill: 48%
(10/22-11/4)
Carmona: 45% Akin: 42% Brown: 50% FL
(10/21-11/3)
(10/23-11/3) Mandel: 45% Nelson: 50%
(10/23-11/4) Mack: 44%
(10/22-11/4)
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of November 5, 2012) 28

29. 2012 HOUSE OUTLOOK
218 Seats Needed for Majority 29
Source: HuffPost, as of November 5, 2012

30. 2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH – DEMOCRATS
30
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of Nov 5, 2012

31. 2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH - REPUBLICANS
31
Source: Real Clear Politics, as of Nov 5, 2012

32. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging
and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
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