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Public Opinion Landscape: Election Eve 11/5/12
 

Public Opinion Landscape: Election Eve 11/5/12

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    Public Opinion Landscape: Election Eve 11/5/12 Public Opinion Landscape: Election Eve 11/5/12 Presentation Transcript

    • Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis November 5, 2012
    • TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..42. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race..…………………….…….83. Electoral Map Scenarios…………………………...……………..………...114. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……235. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...26 2
    • RECAP: WHAT’S AT STAKE Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second Presidency: term in office versus Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent, seeking to become the 45th president of the United States. Republicans Democrats Senate: 33 seats being contested. Republicans need to win 4 seats~ 47 53* from the Democrats to gain - +6 control of the Senate. Republicans Democrats All 435 seats being contested. House: Democrats need to win 25 seats from the Republicans to gain 240** 190*** control of the House. +50 - Governor: 11 governorships being contested. * 51 Democrats + 2 Independents ** 2 seats are vacant (MI-11, KY-4) *** 3 seats are vacant (NJ-10, WA-1, CA-18) 3 ~ if Romney wins, only need to win 3 seats
    • Political Context 4
    • NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONGTRACK TRENDING DOWN; ECONOMY REMAINS TOPISSUE Most important problem: As of November 4, 2012 PROBLEM % The economy 37 Unemployment 26 WRONG TRACK 53.3% Federal budget deficit 12 Dissatisfaction with gov’t 9 Health care 7 Lack of money 5 Education 4 Foreign aid/Focus overseas 4 Ethical/moral/family decline 4 RIGHT DIRECTION 40.7% War/Afghanistan/Iraq 3 Immigration 2 National security 2Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data Care for elderly/Medicare 2 Source: Gallup, Oct 15-16, 2012 5
    • OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL IS DIVIDED;AMERICANS APPROVE OF HIS HANDLING OFHURRICANE SANDY Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue… NET NET Issue APPROVE DISAPPROVE APPROVE 48.8% The economy 47% 52% The federal budget and 38% 60% spending Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Oct 29-Nov 1, 2012 DISAPPROVE 48.1% In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy? APPROVE DISAPPROVESource: Pollster.com Aggregate Data , as of Nov. 5 67% 16% Source: NBC News/WSJ Poll, Nov 1-3, 2012 6
    • JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election Presidential Job Approval January March June October 2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% 50% 2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50% 1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58% 1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33% 1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58% 1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32% 1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32% 1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59% 1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74% President’s in red lost re-election 7Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
    • Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race 8
    • AS WE NEAR THE FINISH LINE, THE NATIONAL RACE IS TOO CLOSE TO CALL From October 5th – November 5th OBAMA 47.8% +0.4 ROMNEY 47.4% Second Debate Third Debate Hurricane Sandy Four Years Ago Day Before Election: Eight Years Ago Day Before Election: October 25, 2008 % October 25, 2004 % Obama 51.6 Bush 48.4 McCain 44.3 Kerry 46.9 Obama +7.3 Bush +1.5 9Source: Real Clear Politics
    • VOTERS THINK OBAMA WILL WIN Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? 91% 76% 57% 50% 36% 40% Obama 15% Romney 5% All Democrats Independents Republicans Note: “Other” and “No opinion” results not shown Trends for Comparison: Sept 5-7, 2008 % Oct 14-16, 2004 % Sept 15-17, 2000 % Obama 52 Bush 56 Gore 52 McCain 44 Kerry 36 Bush 35 10Source: CNN/ORC Poll, November 2-4, 2012
    • Electoral Map Scenarios 11 11
    • A RECAP OF 2008 ELECTION Obama McCain 365 173 11 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 31 MA 3 17 12 5 4 7 21 RI 1 21 11 20 455 5 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 11 8KY 7 15 11 15 NC MD DE 10 5 7 6 10 3 NM 8 DC GA3AK 6 9 15 3 34 9 27 4 12
    • OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (1)- Lose Florida, Indiana, and North Carolina Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 303 Romney: 235 13
    • OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (2)- Lose Colorado, Florida, Indiana, New Hampshire and North Carolina Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 290 Romney: 248 14
    • OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (3)- Lose Colorado, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and Virginia Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 281 Romney: 257 15
    • OBAMA’S PATH TO VICTORY (4)- Lose Indiana, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Ohio Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 272 Romney: 266 16
    • ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (1)- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Indiana and Colorado Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Romney: 275 Obama: 263 17
    • ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (2)- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire and Indiana Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Romney: 270 Obama: 268 18
    • ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (3)- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado,Nevada and Indiana Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Romney: 273 Obama: 265 19
    • ROMNEY PATH TO VICTORY (4)- Capture Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, New Hampshire, Colorado,and Indiana Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Romney: 279 Obama: 259 20
    • TIE PROJECTION (1)- Romney captures Nevada, Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia,Indiana, and Iowa Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 269 Republicans: 269 21
    • TIE PROJECTION (2)- Romney captures Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa and Wisconsin Obama Republican Party change from ‘08 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 269 Republicans: 269 22
    • Battleground States 23
    • THE ELECTORAL MAP 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 201 Toss-Up: 146 Romney: 191 24Source: Real Clear Politics (as of November 5, 2012)
    • OBAMA LEADS IN EIGHT TOSS-UP STATES, ROMNEY LEADS IN TWO RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES States Obama Romney Obama Romney Colorado 48.2% 47.6% 9 0 Florida 47.7% 49.5% 0 29 Iowa 48.8% 45.8% 6 0 Michigan 49.2% 45.4% 16 0 Nevada 50.2% 47.4% 6 0 New Hampshire 49.7% 47.7% 4 0 North Carolina 46.2% 49.2% 0 15 Ohio 49.4% 46.5% 18 0 Virginia 48.0% 47.7% 13 0 Wisconsin 50.4% 46.2% 10 0 Swing State Voters 82 44 Leaning/Likely State Voters 221 191 Total Overall Votes 303 235 25Source: Real Clear Politics, as of November 5, 2012
    • Battle for Congress 26
    • 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH Likely Rep Likely Dem (7) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) (0) ME* (Open) – Republican CT (Open) – Democrat IN (Open) – Republican AZ (Open) – Republican HI (Open) – Democrat FL (Nelson) – Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican NE (Open) – Democrat MI (Stabenow) – Democrat MO (McCaskill) – Democrat MT (Tester) – Democrat NM (Open) – Democrat OH (Brown) – Democrat NV (Heller) – Republican NJ (Menendez) – Democrat PA (Casey) – Democrat ND (Open) – Democrat WA (Cantwell) – Democrat VA (Open) – Democrat WV (Manchin) – Democrat WI (Open) – Democrat 27 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats ifSource: Real Clear Politics, as of November 5, 2012 he wins the open Maine seat
    • LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES (10/29 – 11/3) (10/24-11/3) (10/12-10/28) Rehberg : 48% Berg: 49% (10/25-11/3) Warren: 50% Baldwin: 49% Brown: 47% Tester: 47% Heitkamp: 43% Thompson: 46% (10/15-11/2) ND Murphy: 49% OR MT MN McMahon: 44% NH WI MA Donnelly: 45% CT Mourdock: 42% PA NV Casey: (10/10-11/1) CO IN OH 48% Heller: 47% MO VA KY Smith: Berkley: 44% NC 43% (10/22-10/29) AZ NM (10/23-11/3) GA Kaine: 49% Allen: 47% Flake: 51% McCaskill: 48% (10/22-11/4) Carmona: 45% Akin: 42% Brown: 50% FL (10/21-11/3) (10/23-11/3) Mandel: 45% Nelson: 50% (10/23-11/4) Mack: 44% (10/22-11/4)Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of November 5, 2012) 28
    • 2012 HOUSE OUTLOOK 218 Seats Needed for Majority 29Source: HuffPost, as of November 5, 2012
    • 2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH – DEMOCRATS 30Source: Real Clear Politics, as of Nov 5, 2012
    • 2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH - REPUBLICANS 31Source: Real Clear Politics, as of Nov 5, 2012
    • GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverseaudiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques touncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messagingand strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 32