Public opinion landscape - The Economy
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Public opinion landscape - The Economy Public opinion landscape - The Economy Presentation Transcript

  • The Public Opinion Landscape – The Economy September 23, 2013
  • 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future 2. Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy 3. Views on the Debt Ceiling 4. The Financial Crisis: Five Years Later Slide 2 10 14 18
  • 2 Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future
  • 3 Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 18, 2013 Widening Gap The trend shows that the gap between those who are optimistic and pessimistic about the future of our country is beginning to widen. AS WE EXITTHE SUMMER MONTHS, OPTIMISM CONTINUESTO FADE WRONG TRACK 61.1% RIGHT DIRECTION 26.3%
  • 4 Source: Gallup Poll FIVEYEARS LATER: CONFIDENCE IN ECONOMY IS UP, BUT JOB FEARS REMAIN INTACT Before 9/15/2008 One month later One year later Today, September 2013 Gallup Economic Confidence Index -39 -65 -23 -16 % Name the economy as MIP 41 47 29 21 % “good time” to find a quality job 20 14 10 27 % Name unemployment as MIP 7 3 15 17 % Worried about being laid off^ 15 n/a 31 29 % Worried that benefits will be cut^ 27 n/a 46 43 % Worried that pay will be reduced^ 16 n/a 32 31 Average daily consumer spending $113 $85 $60 $86 MIP = “Most Important Problem” ^ Based on U.S. adults employed full or part time
  • 5 Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013 ONE IN FIVE AMERICANS DON’T SEE ANY ECONOMIC IMPROVEMENT IN LAST 5YEARS It’s been five years since the beginning of the financial crisis and the economic downturn that followed. Compared with the worst of that crisis, from your perspective has the economy improved a great deal, improved somewhat, improved just a little, or not improved at all? 10% 35% 32% 22% A great deal Somewhat Just a little Not at all 1% volunteered that economy has gotten worse
  • 6 During the next twelve months, do you think that the nation’s economy will get better, get worse, or stay about the same? 17% 23% 19% 19% 20% 25% 18% 18% 9% 28% 18% 21% 24% 44% 35% 42% 46% 41% 45% 38% 32% 34% 33% 49% 47% 48% 37% 40% 38% 33% 35% 27% 36% 42% 45% 38% 32% 31% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Will stay the same Will get worse Will get better Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, September 5-8, 2013 AMERICANSVIEW ECONOMY AS STAYINGTHE SAME OVERTHE COURSE OFTHE NEXTYEAR
  • 7 Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013 POLITICAL PREDISPOSITIONS INFLUENCE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENTS, AS DOES INCOME 67% 43% 22% 58% 48% 39% % seeing improvement in the economy
  • 8 ECONOMIC CONCERNS LOWEST OF OBAMA PRESIDENCY; BUT STILL REMAIN ONTOP Percentage of Americans Mentioning Economic Issues as Most Important Problem Most Important Problem – September 2013 Economy in general (21%) Healthcare (10%) Unemployment / jobs (17%) Situation in Syria (8%) Dissatisfaction with government (16%) Federal budget deficit / Federal debt (5%) Source: Gallup Poll, September 5-8, 2013
  • 9 JOB SITUATION ISTHETOP ECONOMIC WORRY Which of the following national economic issues worries you most? The job situation (40%) The federal budget deficit (24%) Rising prices (22%) The condition of the financial and housing markets (10%) Other / None / Don’t know (4%) Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013
  • 10 Perceptions of Obama’s Handling of the Economy
  • 11 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling…? Issue NET APPROVE NET DISAPPROVE The economy 43% 56% Health care policy 42% 55% Foreign affairs 40% 57% The federal budget deficit 36% 61% The situation in Syria 31% 63% Source: CNN/ORC Poll, September 6-8, 2013 OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB APPROVAL RATING FADES; MAJORITIES DISAPPROVE HANDLING OF VARIOUS ISSUES DISAPPROVE 51.0% APPROVE 43.2% Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of September 20, 2013 Overall Job Approval
  • 60% 59% 58% 45% 45% 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Reagan (1985) Eisenhower (1957) Clinton (1997) G.W. Bush (2005) Obama (2013) Nixon (1973) 12 OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL COMPARABLE TO HIS PREDECESSOR Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in September of First Year of 2nd Term Weekly Approval Rating Average September 9 - 15
  • HALF OF AMERICANSTHINK OBAMA’S ECONOMIC POLICIES INFLATE FEDERAL DEBT, FAILTO IMPROVE ECONOMY 13 Run up a record federal deficit while failing to significantly improve the economy 50% Help to avoid an even worse economic crisis, and are fueling economic recovery 37% And, in your opinion did President Obama’s economic policies… Source: Allstate/National Journal Heartland Poll XVIII, September 3-7, 2013 DK/REF 14%
  • 14 Views on the Debt Ceiling
  • 15 AMERICANS ARE SPLIT ONTHE DEBT LIMIT, EVEN WITH FEARS OF DAMAGE Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013 What do you think is better – for Congress to raise the debt limit so the government can keep paying its bills and obligations or for Congress not to raise the debt limit and let the government default on paying its bills and obligations? 46% 43% Raise the debt limit Not raise the debt limit If the government cannot borrow money to fund its operations and pay its debts, do you think that would or would not cause serious harm to the U.S. economy? 73% 22% Would Would not Note: “No opinion” results not shown.
  • 16 AMERICANS MOSTLY OPPOSED TO RAISING THE DEBT CEILING WITH CONDITIONS Source: Reason-Rupe Poll, September 4-8, 2012 Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if equal amounts of budget cuts are made, or not? 45% 46% 9% Favor Oppose DK/REF Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if funding for Obamacare is cut off, or not? Would you be willing to support raising the debt ceiling if not raising the debt ceiling means the U.S. defaults on its debt, or not? 35% 56% 10% Favor Oppose DK/REF 35% 55% 10% Favor Oppose DK/REF
  • 17 OBAMA HAS UPPER HAND ON PERCEIVED WILLINGNESSTO COMPROMISE Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013 Do you think [Obama / the Republican leaders in Congress] is/are doing too much, too little, or about the right amount compared with [the Republican leaders in Congress / Obama] on a budget plan? Note: “No opinion” results not shown. 10% 10% 49% 64% 36% 22% Barack Obama Republican leaders in Congress Doing too much Doing too little About the right amount
  • 18 Financial Crisis: FiveYears Later
  • 19 FIVEYEARS AFTER CRASH, DOUBTS ABOUT U.S. ECONOMIC SYSTEM Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013 Thinking about the U.S. economic system in general, compared with before the 2008 financial crisis, do you think the U.S. economic system is more secure today than it was before the 2008 economic crisis or no more secure today than it was before the 2008 economic crisis? 68% 45% 80% 63% 29% 51% 16% 33% No more secure More secure Total Republican Democrat Independent
  • 20 MANY SEE AN UNEVEN ECONOMIC RECOVERY Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013 Thinking about the recession that began in 2008. Please tell me whether you think each of the following has fully recovered from the recession, partially recovered, or hardly recovered at all? Fully recovered Partially recovered Hardly recovered DK Household incomes 2% 42% 54% 2% Job situation 2% 45% 52% 1% Real estate values 4% 59% 33% 4% Stock market 21% 53% 18% 9%
  • 21 GOV’T POLICIES SEEN AS DOING LITTLE FOR MIDDLE CLASS, POOR AND SMALL BUSINESSES Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013 Thinking about the federal government’s economic policies following the recession that began in 2008. Do you think these policies have helped [INSERT] a great deal, a fair amount, not too much, or not at all? 40% 41% 38% 6% 6% 8% 28% 26% 21% 23% 21% 18% 25% 27% 33% 67% 71% 72% Large banks & financial institutions Large corporations Wealthy people Small businesses Middle class people Poor people A great deal A fair amount Not much / Not at all Note: “DK/REF” results not shown.
  • 22 DEMOCRATS SEETOO LITTLE FINANCIAL REGULATION, REPUBLICANS SEETOO MUCH Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 4-8, 2013 In regulating financial institutions and markets, which comes closer to your view? Total Rep Dem Ind The government has gone too far regulating financial institutions and markets, making it harder for the economy to grow 43% 64% 26% 41% The government has not gone far enough in regulating financial institutions and markets, leaving the country at risk for another financial crisis 49% 32% 62% 51% Don’t know / Refused 8% 4% 11% 8%
  • 23 Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013 VERY FEW AMERICANS ARE CONFIDENT THAT COUNTRY CAN AVOID ANOTHER CRISIS 6% 32% 35% 26% 0% 20% 40% 60% Very confident Somewhat confident Not so confident Not at all confident How confident are you, if at all, that the country will be able to avoid another financial crisis in the future – very confident, somewhat confident, not so confident, or not confident at all ? 62% Not confident 37% Confident
  • 24 TWO-THIRDS SAYTHE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT HAS FAILEDTOTAKE ADEQUATE STEPSTO PREVENT ANOTHER FINANCIAL CRISIS Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013 Do you think the federal government has or has not taken adequate measures to prevent another financial crisis in the future? Has not 66% Has 28% No opinion 7%
  • 25 MORETHAN SIX INTEN SAYTHE COUNTRY’S FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS HAVE FAILEDTO PUT SUFFICIENT SAFEGUARDS IN PLACE Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 12-15, 2013 Do you think the country’s banks and other financial institutions have or have not taken adequate measures to prevent another financial crisis in the future? Have not 62% Have 27% No opinion 11%
  • 26 AMERICANS STILL ANGRY WITH BANKERS FOR FINANCIAL CRISIS The government was right to bail out banks and other financial institutions during the financial crisis. Source: Ipsos-Reuters Poll, September 6-10, 2013 23% 44% 22% Neither agree or disagree Disagree Agree The government has sufficiently prosecuted bankers for their role in the financial crisis. 20% 53% 15% Neither agree or disagree Disagree Agree Note: “Don’t know” results not shown.
  • YET, IMAGE OF BANKING INDUSTRY MAKING A SLOW COMBACK Source: Gallup Poll, August 7-11, 2013 47% 46% 52% 46% 46% 56% 50% 36% 28% 26% 30% 25% 33% 20% 24% 20% 17% 22% 17% 18% 37% 51% 54% 47% 53% 43% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Very/somewhat positive Very/somewhat negative For each of the following business sectors in the United States, please say whether your overall view of it is very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative or very negative. Note: “Neutral” and “No opinion” results not shown.
  • AMERICANS’ CONFIDENCE IN BANKS UP FOR THE FIRST TIME INYEARS 28 Source: Gallup Poll, June 1-4, 2013 The percentage of Americans saying they have a great deal or quite a lot (26%) of confidence in banks is now about the same as those expressing little or no confidence (28%). June 1-4 % Great deal 10 Quite a lot 16 Some 45 Very little 26 None (vol.) 2 No opinion 1
  • 29 BUT AMERICANS SPLIT ON WHETHER WALL STREET HELPSTHE ECONOMY GROW & CREATE JOBS Source: Ipsos-Reuters Poll, September 6-10, 2013 Wall Street banks and traders help the U.S. economy grow and create jobs. Agree 26% Disagree 30% Neither agree or disagree 31% Don’t know 13%
  • 30 GPG Research GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns. GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpgdc.com)