2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
Slide
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Views of Obama..…………………………………………………………….…...6
3. 2012: General Election Preview………………..…………………………16
4. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…18
5. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……23
6. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...26
2
4. CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE
State of the Nation
Clinton Bush Obama Compared to when Barack
August August August Obama became president – do
1996 2004 2012 you think that the country is
better off, worse off, or in about
Satisfied 38 44 23 the same place?
Unsatisfied 57 55 77
Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012
• Tougher political, economic, and foreign policy Better off 31%
environment
• Post-2010, narrower field of battleground states Worse off 42%
• New Republican governors in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan
• Continuing high unemployment Same place 27%
• No President has been re-elected since WWII when
unemployment was above 7.5%
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012
4
5. MOST VOTERS HAVE A NEGATIVE
PERCEPTION OF THE ECONOMY
Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as excellent,
good, not so good or poor?
POSITIVE NEGATIVE
15% 84%
50% 45%
45%
39%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
14%
15%
10%
5% 1%
0%
Excellent Good Not so Good Poor
Note: “No opinion” results are not shown. 5
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012
7. AMERICANS DIVIDED OVER OBAMA’S OVERALL
JOB PERFORMANCE; WEAKER ON DOMESTIC
PRIORITIES, STRONGER ON FOREIGN POLICY
Overall Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of
the way Obama is handling…?
Approve Disapprove No opinion
NET NET
Issue APPROVE DISAPPROVE
Terrorism 58% 35%
44% 47% Education 49% 43%
Foreign Affairs 48% 45%
Immigration 38% 54%
9%
Creating jobs 37% 58%
The economy 36% 60%
The federal
30% 64%
Source: Gallup Poll, August 27 – Sept 2, 2012 budget deficit
7
Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012
8. OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL ABOVE CARTER /
AND BUSH SR., BUT BELOW 50%
Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in early
80%
September of Re-Election Year
70% 68%
60%
60% 57%
52%
50% 44%
39% 37%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Eisenhower Clinton Reagan G.W. Bush Obama G. Bush Carter (1980)
(1956) (1996) (1984) (2004) (2012) (1992)
Weekly Approval
Rating Average 8
Aug 27 – Sept 2, 2012
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
9. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT
PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
President’s in red lost re-election
9
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
10. JOB APPROVAL RATING IS 50% OR HIGHER IN
12 STATES AND D.C. 42% and below 42% - 50%
Above 50%
NH
VT
OR
MN NH
MA
RI
CT
NJ
CO DE
KY MD
NC
DC
NM
Job Electoral
GA Approval Votes
AK
Above
50% 175
42%-50% 243
42% and
Below 120
January – June 2012 10
11. MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE
ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 45% DON’T THINK HIS
POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY
Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies: 1. They are improving the
economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet,
but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will.
Improving economy 17% 51%
Not improved but will in time 34%
Not improving and never will 45%
Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” 11
and “DK/NA” results not shown
Source: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
12. AMERICANS STILL BLAME BUSH MORE THAN
OBAMA FOR ECONOMY
Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic
problems – (Barack Obama) or (George W. Bush)?
60% 54% 54%
49% Bush
40%
Obama
34% 32%
29%
20%
0%
Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12
Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and 12
“No opinion” results are not shown.
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012
13. MAJORITY OF VOTERS FEEL OBAMA IS GENERALLY IN
THE MAINSTREAM WITH MOST AMERICANS’ THINKING
When it comes to his approaches to issues, would you say that Barack Obama is in
the mainstream of most Americans’ thinking, or is out of step with most Americans’
thinking?
AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS
54%
COMPARE TO:
44%
In the Out of
July-08
Mainstream Step
Barack
60% 29%
Obama
In the Out of
Aug-12
Mainstream Step
Mitt
44% 51%
In the Mainstream Out of Step Romney
13
Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012
14. FOUR IN TEN VOTERS THINK OBAMA IS TOO
LIBERAL
Do you think Barack Obama’s positions on the issues are too liberal, too conservative
or about right?
AMONG REGISTERED
VOTERS
TOO
CONSERVATIVE
7%
ABOUT RIGHT COMPARE TO:
46% Mitt Romney
TOO Too liberal 14%
LIBERAL Too conservative 34%
41% DON’T
KNOW
5%
About right 40%
Don’t know 13%
14
Source: Fox News Poll, August 5-7, 2012
15. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW,
OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
FAVORABLE 49.9% FAVORABLE 44.7%
UNFAVORABLE 45.6% UNFAVORABLE 47.4%
As of September 5, 2012 Before GOP Convention
Favorable: 40.7
Unfavorable: 47.2 15
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
17. PRESIDENCY, CONGRESS, GOVERNORSHIPS
Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second
Presidency: term in office versus Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent,
seeking to become the 45th president of the United States.
Republicans Democrats
Senate:
33 seats being contested.
Republicans need to win 4 seats 47 53*
from the Democrats to gain
- +6
control of the Senate.
Republicans Democrats
All 435 seats being contested.
House: Democrats need to win 25 seats
from the Republicans to gain
240** 190***
control of the House. +50 -
Governor: 11 governorships being
contested.
* 51 Democrats + 2 Independents
** 2 seats are vacant (MI-11, KY-4)
*** 3 seats are vacant (NJ-10, WA-1, CA-18)
17
19. AFTER GOP CONVENTION, POLLS SHOW THE
RACE IS TIED
A Look Back
As of September 5, 2012 Four Years Ago Today
Sept 5, 2008 %
ROMNEY 46.6% Obama 46.6
McCain 44.0
+0.4 Obama +2.6
Eight Years Ago Today
Sept 5, 2004 %
OBAMA 46.2% Bush 49.3
Kerry 43.0
Bush +6.3
Source: Real Clear Politics
19
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
20. GOP CONVENTION EVOKES LUKEWARM
REACTION
Romney Obama
Pre-convention (Aug 24-27) 47% 46%
Post-convention (Aug 31 – Sep 3) 46% 47%
Does what you saw or read of this week’s Republican convention make you more likely
or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney?
No difference /
More likely Less likely
Don’t know
National Adults 40% 38% 22%
Republicans 83% 6% 11%
Independents 36% 33% 30%
Democrats 9% 74% 18%
20
Source: Gallup Poll
21. CANDIDATE SUPPORT TYPICALLY UP FIVE
POINTS AFTER CONVENTION
Post-Dem. Post-Rep.
Democratic Republican
Convention convention
candidate candidate
bounce bounce
2012 Obama ??? Romney -1
2008 Obama 4 McCain 6
2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2
2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8
1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3
1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5
1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6
1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4
1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8
1976 Carter 9 Ford 5
1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7
21
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
22. AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON TWO
PERSONAL DIMENSIONS AFTER CONVENTION
Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each
one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney?
Obama Romney Before GOP After GOP
Before GOP After GOP Convention Convention
Before GOP After GOP Before GOP After GOP Convention Convention
Convention Convention Convention Convention 60%
60% 56%
53%
49% 48% 48% 47% 49%
50%
40% 46% 45%
43% 43% 43%
39%
30% 36%
31%
20%
10%
0%
Is a strong and Has an optimistic Is in touch with the Is in touch with the
decisive leader vision for the problems facing problems facing
country’s future middle class women today
Americans today
22
Source: CNN/ORC Poll, August 31 – Sept 2, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
24. THE ELECTORAL MAP
12 VT NH
3 3
3 4 4
7
OR
10
MN NH
4 3 10 29 MA
3 16 11
6 5 6 20 RI
20 11 18
4
55 6 9
CO
5 13 CT NJ
6 10 8KY 7 14
11 15
NC MD DE
11 5 7 6
10 3
NM
9 DC
GA
3
AK 6 9 16 3
38 8
29
4 Electoral Count (as shown):
Obama: 221 Toss-Up: 126 Romney: 191 24
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of August 31, 2012)
25. OF THE TEN TOSS-UP STATES, OBAMA LEADS OR IS
TIED IN ALL BUT ONE, YET LEADS ARE SLIM (6/20-8/12)
Obama: 48%
(8/16-9/2) Romney: 45%
(8/13-8/21)
Obama: 48% Obama: 48%
(8/13-9/2)
Romney: 47% Romney: 45%
Obama: 46%
OR (7/31-9/2) Romney: 45%
MN NH
Obama: 48%
WI
Romney: 47% MI
IA
NV OH Obama: 47%
CO
CO Romney: 46%
Obama: 45% VA (8/13-8/23)
KY
Romney: 45% NC
NC
(5/22-8/26)
NM
Obama: 49%
GA
Romney: 46% Romney: 47%
(7/24-8/26)
Obama: 45%
(8/22-9/2)
FL
Obama: 47%
Romney: 47%
(8/13-9/2) 25
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)
27. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a
seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.
Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1)
ME* (Open) – HI (Open) – MO (McCaskill) – AZ (Open) – NE (Open) –
Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Democrat
PA (Casey) – FL (Nelson) – MT (Tester) – IN (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat Republican
MI (Stabenow) – OH (Brown) – VA (Open) –
Democrat Democrat Democrat
CT (Open) – WI (Open) –
Democrat Democrat
NM (Open) – ND (Open) -
Democrat Democrat
MA (Brown) –
Republican
NV (Heller) –
Republican
*Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 27
he wins the open Maine seat
Source: Roll Call, as of September 5, 2012
28. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
(6/13-6/25)
(8/20) (5/3-7/11) King: 53%
(8/15-8/21)
Rehberg : 47% Berg: 49% Summers: 25%
Thompson: 51%
Tester: 43% Heitkamp: 44% Dill: 8%
Baldwin: 43%
ND ME
OR MT
MN NH
WI MA
(8/22-8/29)
McCaskill: 48% Brown:
NV 44%
Akin: 41%
CO
MO VA Warren:
KY
43%
NC (5/7-8/19)
Heller: 47% NM
NM
Berkley: 42% GA
Kaine: 46%
(7/24-8/26)
Allen: 46%
Heinrich: 49% (7/31-8/23)
Wilson: 42% FL
(7/9-8/21) Nelson: 46%
Mack: 40
(8/15-9/2) 28
Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)
29. 2012 HOUSE OUTLOOK
218 Seats Needed for Majority 29
Source: HuffPost, as of September 4, 2012
30. GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and
quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message
development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor
critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse
audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to
uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging
and strategy.
For more information about this presentation
or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or
David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com)
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