Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis September 5, 2012
TABLE OF CONTENTS                                                       Slide1. Political Context………………………………………………………….……...
Political Context                    3
CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE                                         State of the Nation                           Clin...
MOST VOTERS HAVE A NEGATIVE    PERCEPTION OF THE ECONOMY        Would you describe the state of the nations economy these ...
Obama        6
AMERICANS DIVIDED OVER OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE; WEAKER ON DOMESTIC PRIORITIES, STRONGER ON FOREIGN POLICY         ...
OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL ABOVE CARTER /     AND BUSH SR., BUT BELOW 50%                                                     ...
JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT     PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION                                                     ...
JOB APPROVAL RATING IS 50% OR HIGHER IN12 STATES AND D.C.   42% and below 42% - 50%                               Above 50...
MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE  ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 45% DON’T THINK HIS  POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY   ...
AMERICANS STILL BLAME BUSH MORE THAN    OBAMA FOR ECONOMY        Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s cu...
MAJORITY OF VOTERS FEEL OBAMA IS GENERALLY IN    THE MAINSTREAM WITH MOST AMERICANS’ THINKING     When it comes to his app...
FOUR IN TEN VOTERS THINK OBAMA IS TOO    LIBERAL      Do you think Barack Obama’s positions on the issues are too liberal,...
ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW,    OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY        FAVORABLE 49.9%                               FAVO...
2012 – General Election Preview                                  16                                   16
PRESIDENCY, CONGRESS, GOVERNORSHIPS               Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second Presidency:  ...
Battle for the Presidency:     The Horse Race                             18
AFTER GOP CONVENTION, POLLS SHOW THE    RACE IS TIED                                                                 A Loo...
GOP CONVENTION EVOKES LUKEWARM     REACTION                                                           Romney              ...
CANDIDATE SUPPORT TYPICALLY UP FIVE     POINTS AFTER CONVENTION                                        Post-Dem.          ...
AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON TWO    PERSONAL DIMENSIONS AFTER CONVENTION        Thinking about the following characte...
Battleground States                      23
THE ELECTORAL MAP                        12                                                                               ...
OF THE TEN TOSS-UP STATES, OBAMA LEADS OR IS  TIED IN ALL BUT ONE, YET LEADS ARE SLIM                                     ...
Battle for Congress                      26
2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH            Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick u...
LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES                                                                                               ...
2012 HOUSE OUTLOOK                                            218 Seats Needed for Majority   29Source: HuffPost, as of Se...
GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public...
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Public Opinion Landscape - Democratic National Convention

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Public Opinion Landscape - Democratic National Convention

  1. 1. Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis September 5, 2012
  2. 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..32. Views of Obama..…………………………………………………………….…...63. 2012: General Election Preview………………..…………………………164. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…185. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……236. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...26 2
  3. 3. Political Context 3
  4. 4. CHALLENGING ELECTORAL LANDSCAPE State of the Nation Clinton Bush Obama Compared to when Barack August August August Obama became president – do 1996 2004 2012 you think that the country is better off, worse off, or in aboutSatisfied 38 44 23 the same place?Unsatisfied 57 55 77Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012• Tougher political, economic, and foreign policy Better off 31% environment• Post-2010, narrower field of battleground states Worse off 42% • New Republican governors in Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Michigan• Continuing high unemployment Same place 27% • No President has been re-elected since WWII when unemployment was above 7.5% Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012 4
  5. 5. MOST VOTERS HAVE A NEGATIVE PERCEPTION OF THE ECONOMY Would you describe the state of the nations economy these days as excellent, good, not so good or poor? POSITIVE NEGATIVE 15% 84% 50% 45% 45% 39% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 14% 15% 10% 5% 1% 0% Excellent Good Not so Good Poor Note: “No opinion” results are not shown. 5Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012
  6. 6. Obama 6
  7. 7. AMERICANS DIVIDED OVER OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE; WEAKER ON DOMESTIC PRIORITIES, STRONGER ON FOREIGN POLICY Overall Job Approval Do you approve or disapprove of the way Obama is handling…? Approve Disapprove No opinion NET NET Issue APPROVE DISAPPROVE Terrorism 58% 35% 44% 47% Education 49% 43% Foreign Affairs 48% 45% Immigration 38% 54% 9% Creating jobs 37% 58% The economy 36% 60% The federal 30% 64%Source: Gallup Poll, August 27 – Sept 2, 2012 budget deficit 7 Source: Gallup Poll, August 9-12, 2012
  8. 8. OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL ABOVE CARTER / AND BUSH SR., BUT BELOW 50% Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in early 80% September of Re-Election Year 70% 68% 60% 60% 57% 52% 50% 44% 39% 37% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Eisenhower Clinton Reagan G.W. Bush Obama G. Bush Carter (1980) (1956) (1996) (1984) (2004) (2012) (1992) Weekly Approval Rating Average 8 Aug 27 – Sept 2, 2012Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  9. 9. JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election Presidential Job Approval January March June October 2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ? 2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50% 1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58% 1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33% 1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58% 1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32% 1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32% 1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59% 1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74% President’s in red lost re-election 9Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  10. 10. JOB APPROVAL RATING IS 50% OR HIGHER IN12 STATES AND D.C. 42% and below 42% - 50% Above 50% NH VT OR MN NH MA RI CT NJ CO DE KY MD NC DC NM Job Electoral GA Approval VotesAK Above 50% 175 42%-50% 243 42% and Below 120 January – June 2012 10
  11. 11. MAJORITY FEEL OBAMA’S POLICIES WILL IMPROVE ECONOMY. HOWEVER, 45% DON’T THINK HIS POLICIES WILL EVER HELP THE ECONOMY Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obamas economic policies: 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will. Improving economy 17% 51% Not improved but will in time 34% Not improving and never will 45% Note: “Made economy worse (vol.)” 11 and “DK/NA” results not shownSource: CBS News/NY Times Poll, July 11-16, 2012
  12. 12. AMERICANS STILL BLAME BUSH MORE THAN OBAMA FOR ECONOMY Who do you think is more responsible for the country’s current economic problems – (Barack Obama) or (George W. Bush)? 60% 54% 54% 49% Bush 40% Obama 34% 32% 29% 20% 0% Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and 12 “No opinion” results are not shown.Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, August 22-25, 2012
  13. 13. MAJORITY OF VOTERS FEEL OBAMA IS GENERALLY IN THE MAINSTREAM WITH MOST AMERICANS’ THINKING When it comes to his approaches to issues, would you say that Barack Obama is in the mainstream of most Americans’ thinking, or is out of step with most Americans’ thinking? AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS 54% COMPARE TO: 44% In the Out of July-08 Mainstream Step Barack 60% 29% Obama In the Out of Aug-12 Mainstream Step Mitt 44% 51% In the Mainstream Out of Step Romney 13Source: NBC/WSJ Survey, August 16-20, 2012
  14. 14. FOUR IN TEN VOTERS THINK OBAMA IS TOO LIBERAL Do you think Barack Obama’s positions on the issues are too liberal, too conservative or about right? AMONG REGISTERED VOTERS TOO CONSERVATIVE 7% ABOUT RIGHT COMPARE TO: 46% Mitt Romney TOO Too liberal 14% LIBERAL Too conservative 34% 41% DON’T KNOW 5% About right 40% Don’t know 13% 14Source: Fox News Poll, August 5-7, 2012
  15. 15. ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY FAVORABLE 49.9% FAVORABLE 44.7% UNFAVORABLE 45.6% UNFAVORABLE 47.4% As of September 5, 2012 Before GOP Convention Favorable: 40.7 Unfavorable: 47.2 15Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  16. 16. 2012 – General Election Preview 16 16
  17. 17. PRESIDENCY, CONGRESS, GOVERNORSHIPS Democratic incumbent Barack Obama will be seeking a second Presidency: term in office versus Mitt Romney, the Republican opponent, seeking to become the 45th president of the United States. Republicans Democrats Senate: 33 seats being contested. Republicans need to win 4 seats 47 53* from the Democrats to gain - +6 control of the Senate. Republicans Democrats All 435 seats being contested. House: Democrats need to win 25 seats from the Republicans to gain 240** 190*** control of the House. +50 - Governor: 11 governorships being contested. * 51 Democrats + 2 Independents ** 2 seats are vacant (MI-11, KY-4) *** 3 seats are vacant (NJ-10, WA-1, CA-18) 17
  18. 18. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race 18
  19. 19. AFTER GOP CONVENTION, POLLS SHOW THE RACE IS TIED A Look Back As of September 5, 2012 Four Years Ago Today Sept 5, 2008 % ROMNEY 46.6% Obama 46.6 McCain 44.0 +0.4 Obama +2.6 Eight Years Ago Today Sept 5, 2004 % OBAMA 46.2% Bush 49.3 Kerry 43.0 Bush +6.3 Source: Real Clear Politics 19Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
  20. 20. GOP CONVENTION EVOKES LUKEWARM REACTION Romney Obama Pre-convention (Aug 24-27) 47% 46% Post-convention (Aug 31 – Sep 3) 46% 47% Does what you saw or read of this week’s Republican convention make you more likely or less likely to vote for Mitt Romney? No difference / More likely Less likely Don’t know National Adults 40% 38% 22% Republicans 83% 6% 11% Independents 36% 33% 30% Democrats 9% 74% 18% 20Source: Gallup Poll
  21. 21. CANDIDATE SUPPORT TYPICALLY UP FIVE POINTS AFTER CONVENTION Post-Dem. Post-Rep. Democratic Republican Convention convention candidate candidate bounce bounce 2012 Obama ??? Romney -1 2008 Obama 4 McCain 6 2004 Kerry -1 G.W. Bush 2 2000 Gore 8 G.W. Bush 8 1996 Clinton 5 Dole 3 1992 Clinton 16 G.H.W. Bush 5 1988 Dukakis 7 G.H.W. Bush 6 1984 Mondale 9 Reagan 4 1980 Carter 10 Reagan 8 1976 Carter 9 Ford 5 1972 McGovern 0 Nixon 7 21Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  22. 22. AMERICANS GIVE ROMNEY THE EDGE ON TWO PERSONAL DIMENSIONS AFTER CONVENTION Thinking about the following characteristics and qualities, please say whether you think each one applies more to Barack Obama or more to Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Before GOP After GOP Before GOP After GOP Convention Convention Before GOP After GOP Before GOP After GOP Convention Convention Convention Convention Convention Convention 60% 60% 56% 53% 49% 48% 48% 47% 49% 50% 40% 46% 45% 43% 43% 43% 39% 30% 36% 31% 20% 10% 0% Is a strong and Has an optimistic Is in touch with the Is in touch with the decisive leader vision for the problems facing problems facing country’s future middle class women today Americans today 22Source: CNN/ORC Poll, August 31 – Sept 2, 2012 Note: “Both (vol.),” “Neither (vol.),” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
  23. 23. Battleground States 23
  24. 24. THE ELECTORAL MAP 12 VT NH 3 3 3 4 4 7 OR 10 MN NH 4 3 10 29 MA 3 16 11 6 5 6 20 RI 20 11 18 4 55 6 9 CO 5 13 CT NJ 6 10 8KY 7 14 11 15 NC MD DE 11 5 7 6 10 3 NM 9 DC GA 3 AK 6 9 16 3 38 8 29 4 Electoral Count (as shown): Obama: 221 Toss-Up: 126 Romney: 191 24Source: Real Clear Politics (as of August 31, 2012)
  25. 25. OF THE TEN TOSS-UP STATES, OBAMA LEADS OR IS TIED IN ALL BUT ONE, YET LEADS ARE SLIM (6/20-8/12) Obama: 48% (8/16-9/2) Romney: 45% (8/13-8/21) Obama: 48% Obama: 48% (8/13-9/2) Romney: 47% Romney: 45% Obama: 46% OR (7/31-9/2) Romney: 45% MN NH Obama: 48% WI Romney: 47% MI IA NV OH Obama: 47% CO CO Romney: 46% Obama: 45% VA (8/13-8/23) KY Romney: 45% NC NC (5/22-8/26) NM Obama: 49% GA Romney: 46% Romney: 47% (7/24-8/26) Obama: 45% (8/22-9/2) FL Obama: 47% Romney: 47% (8/13-9/2) 25Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)
  26. 26. Battle for Congress 26
  27. 27. 2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE. Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (5) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (2) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) – HI (Open) – MO (McCaskill) – AZ (Open) – NE (Open) – Republican Democrat Democrat Republican Democrat PA (Casey) – FL (Nelson) – MT (Tester) – IN (Open) – Democrat Democrat Democrat Republican MI (Stabenow) – OH (Brown) – VA (Open) – Democrat Democrat Democrat CT (Open) – WI (Open) – Democrat Democrat NM (Open) – ND (Open) - Democrat Democrat MA (Brown) – Republican NV (Heller) – Republican *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if 27 he wins the open Maine seatSource: Roll Call, as of September 5, 2012
  28. 28. LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES (6/13-6/25) (8/20) (5/3-7/11) King: 53% (8/15-8/21) Rehberg : 47% Berg: 49% Summers: 25% Thompson: 51% Tester: 43% Heitkamp: 44% Dill: 8% Baldwin: 43% ND ME OR MT MN NH WI MA (8/22-8/29) McCaskill: 48% Brown: NV 44% Akin: 41% CO MO VA Warren: KY 43% NC (5/7-8/19) Heller: 47% NM NM Berkley: 42% GA Kaine: 46% (7/24-8/26) Allen: 46% Heinrich: 49% (7/31-8/23) Wilson: 42% FL (7/9-8/21) Nelson: 46% Mack: 40 (8/15-9/2) 28Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 5, 2012)
  29. 29. 2012 HOUSE OUTLOOK 218 Seats Needed for Majority 29Source: HuffPost, as of September 4, 2012
  30. 30. GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverseaudiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques touncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messagingand strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Joel Johnson (jjohnson@gpgdc.com) or David Cantor (dcantor@gpgdc.com) 30
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