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Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration
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Public opinion landscape - 2nd Inauguration

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  • 1. The Public Opinion Landscape –Inauguration Edition January 18, 2013
  • 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS Slide1. A Look Back at 2012……………………………………………………….…...22. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future…………………………………………………………………………….….103. Perceptions of Obama & Congress …………………………….………164. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward…………………....27 1
  • 3. Year in Review: 2012Year in Review: 2012
  • 4. PUBLIC’S TOP STORIES OF 2012: ECONOMY NEVER FAR FROM THE TOP The election was the most closely followed % Followed story for most of 2012 Story Very Closely % Followed Fiscal Cliff negotiations (Nov 30-Dec 2)* 40% Story Very Closely Obama on gay marriage (May 10-13) 37% 2012 election (Nov 8-11)* 60% Trayvon Martin killing (Mar 22-25)* 35% Newtown, CT shooting (Dec 16) 57% Hurricane Sandy (Nov 1-4)* 53% Deadly Midwest storms (Mar 1-4) 33% Price of gas (Mar 15-18)* 52% Summer Olympics (Aug 6-12) 31% Aurora, CO shooting (Jul 19-22)* 48% Hurricane Isaac (Aug 31- Sep 3) 31% Health care decision (Jun 28-Jul 1) 45% Libya investigation (Oct 18-21)* 31% US Economy (Oct 25-28)* 44% US Embassy Attacks (Sep 13-16)* 43% As I read a list of some stories covered by news organizations this past week, please tell me if you happened to follow each news story very closely, fairly closely, not too closely, or not at all closely. First, The Economy…. Note: Dates show field period of the survey in which interest was measured. * Interest in these stories was tracked over multiple weeks; highest weekly interest is shown here. 3Source: Pew Research Center News Interest Index
  • 5. VIEWS OF ECONOMIC NEWS WERE MIXED THROUGHOUT THE YEAR Are you hearing mostly good news about the economy these days, mostly bad news about the economy or a mix of both good and bad news? 90% 80% Mix of good and bad news 80% 68% 68% 70% 64% 65% 60% 67% 60% 62% 60% 62% 60% 56% 55% 53% 61% 55% 59% 50% 50% 41% Mostly bad news 48% 39% 38% 41% 40% 39% 36% 27% 30% 35% 30% 19% 24% 33% 30% 30% 28% 32% 31% 24% 20% Mostly good news 7% 7% 6% 9% 11% 6% 10% 10% 1% 4% 3% 5% 4% 4% 2% 3% 6% 2% 0% Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Aug-09 Aug-10 Aug-11 Aug-12 Dec-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Dec-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Jun-12 Dec-12 A Mix of Good and Bad Mostly Bad News Mostly Good News 4Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 3-6, 2013
  • 6. 2012: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE AND THE STOCK MARKET US Consumer Confidence 71.6 73.1 71.5 69.5 68.7 68.4 64.4 65.4 65.1 61.5 62.7 61.3 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Dow Jones 5Sources: www.conference-board.org./ www.tradingeconomics.com
  • 7. THE YEAR IN REVIEW: ECONOMIC INDICATORS THEN NOW INDICATOR January 2012 December 2012 Unemployment Rate 8.3% 7.8% Inflation Rate 2.9% 1.7% Stock Market (DJIA) 12,359.92 13,104.14 Consumer Confidence Index 61.5 65.1 U.S. Interest Rates .25% .25% U.S. Dollar Exchange Rate 1 78.83 79.67 1The US Dollar Index is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar measuring the performance of the greenback against a basket of currencies which includes: EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK. 6Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, www.tradingeconomics.com/ . http://www.fxstreet.com/
  • 8. THE YEAR IN REVIEW – PERCEPTIONS OF THE ECONOMY 100% Beginning of 2012 End of 2012 80% 79% 69% 60% 61% 53% 40% 23% 20% 23% 0% Country on Wrong Track Economy is Getting Worse* Economy is Bad* Compared with other years, do you think that 2011 was one of the best years for the United States, above average, about average, below average, or one of the worst years for the United States? One of the best Above average About average Below average One of the worst 2% 7% 27% 43% 21% 7Source: NBC/WSJ survey/ *CBS News/NYT Poll
  • 9. THE YEAR IN REVIEW- PERCEPTIONS OF OBAMA Overall Job Approval Rating Job Approval on the Economy 60% Beginning of 2012 End of 2012 55% 53% 50% 48% 49% 45% 45% 40% 8Source: NBC/WSJ survey
  • 10. DISSATISFACTION WITH THE DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY 9Source: Gallup Poll, January 10, 2013
  • 11. Perceptions of Economic Conditions / Views of the Future 10
  • 12. OPTIMISM THAT WE SAW TOWARD END OF 2012 MAY BE LEVELING OFF WRONG TRACK 54.6% Election Optimism? The trend shows a sharp increase in optimism between July 2012 and November 2012. It has since leveled off. RIGHT DIRECTION 35.7% 11Sources: Pollster.com Aggregate Data, as of January 16, 2013
  • 13. AMERICANS’ VIEWS ON THE ECONOMY HAVE STAGNATED AS WE BEGIN THE NEW YEAR Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? 60% 50% 49% 50% 45% 45% 43% 43% 44% 43% Staying 38% 39% the Same 40% 34% 36% 32% 30% 30% 33% 30% 30% 32% 35% 33% Getting 28% 30% better 28% 28% 28% Getting 20% 24% 23% 22% 24% 24% 25% 23% worse 18% 10% 0% 12Source: CBS News Poll, December 12-16, 2012
  • 14. DEBT, GOVERNMENT DYSFUNCTION RISE TO TOP OF AMERICANS’ ISSUE LIST 40% 35% 32% 32% 37% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 31% 30% 29% 30% 26% 30% 29% 25% 28% 23% 26% 26% 21% Economy 25% 25% 20% 20% 22% 23% 20% Deficit 16% 17% 15% 14% 15% 15% 14% 18% 13% 13% Dissatisfaction 15% 12% 12% 12% 12% 16% with gov’t 10% 13% Unemployment 11% 11% 10% 11% 8% 8% 9% 9% 9% 5% 7% 7% 0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 Unemployment Economy Dissatisfaction with govt Federal Budget Deficit What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today? 13Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013
  • 15. JOB SITUATION REMAINS GLOOMY Thinking now about job opportunities where you live, would you say there are plenty of jobs available in your community or are jobs difficult to find? 90% 80% 68% 70% Jobs are difficult to find 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Plenty of jobs are available 22% 10% 0% 14Source: Pew Research Center Poll, December 5 - December 9, 2012
  • 16. MANY PREDICT 2013 WILL BE A YEAR OF ECONOMIC DIFFICULTY 15Source: USA Today/Gallup Poll, December 14-17, 2012
  • 17. Perceptions of Obama & Congress 16
  • 18. OVERALL OBAMA APPROVAL COMPARABLE TO PAST PRESIDENTS AT START OF 2nd TERM Job Approval Ratings for Prior Presidents in 80% 73% January of First Year of 2nd Term 70% 62% 60% 58% 54% 52% 51% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Eisenhower Reagan Clinton Obama G.W. Bush Nixon (1957) (1985) (1997) (2013) (2005) (1973) Weekly Approval Rating Average 17 Jan 7 - 13Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 19. OBAMA WALKS INTO SECOND TERM STRONGER THAN BUSH -10 +11 58% 55% • President Bush’s 48% approval rating 44% dropped 10 points the year he was re- elected. • President Obama’s has increased 11 points. Bush (2004) Obama (2012) January Approval Rating December Approval Rating 18Source: Pew Research Center, December 5-9, 2012
  • 20. PERCEPTION OF OBAMA ADMIN. BIGGEST ACCOMPLISHMENTS & FAILURES Which ONE of these would you say is the most Which ONE of these would you say is the positive accomplishment of the Obama biggest failure of the Obama Administration? Administration? Most Positive Accomplishment Biggest Failure Bringing troops home (Iraq) 22% Unable to improve economy 21% Killing Osama bin Laden 21% Increased Govt. spending 21% Holding the line on Middle Class & raising Kept troops in Afghanistan 16% taxes on wealthy 15% Passing Obamacare 14% Preventing another depression 12% Raising taxes on the wealthy 6% Passing Obamacare 12% Didnt provide strong leadership 5% Saving the Auto industry 7% Too much business regulation 5% None of these 9% None of these 8% 19Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey January 12-15
  • 21. EXPECTATIONS FOR OBAMA HIGHER THAN CLINTON’S IN 1996 Looking ahead to the next four years, do you expect [Bill Clinton/Barack Obama] to do a better job as president, about the same, or a worse job as president than he did in his first term? 50% 46% 46% 40% 39% 31% 30% 22% 20% 14% 10% 0% Better About the same Worse Clinton Obama Note: “No Opinion” not shown 20Source: CNN/ORC Poll, December 17-18, 2012
  • 22. U.S. PRESIDENTS TYPICALLY LESS POPULAR IN SECOND TERM Presidential Approval Averages, by Terms First-term Second- Net change, average term second approval approval minus first rating rating term Harry Truman 56% 36% -20 Dwight Eisenhower 70% 60% -10 Lyndon Johnson 74% 50% -24 Richard Nixon 56% 34% -22 Ronald Reagan 50% 55% +5 Bill Clinton 50% 61% +11 George W. Bush 62% 37% -25 Barack Obama 49% ? ? Reagan and Clinton Only Ones Who Scored Better During Second Term 21Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
  • 23. BIDEN’S CURRENT RATING IS SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN HIS PREDECESSOR Vice Presidents at Start of Gore Cheney Biden Second Term Jan 1997 Mar 2005 Jan 2013 % % % Favorable 65 48 42 Unfavorable 29 42 42 Don’t Know 6 10 16 22Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 9-13, 2013
  • 24. AMERICANS OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THEIR SITUATION, PESSIMISTIC ABOUT WASHINGTON 70% 66% Optimistic Pessimistic 60% 55% 51% 51% 50% 48% 49% 46% 46% 41% 40% 30% 30% 20% 10% 0% Familys financial Policies Obama Economy The way things Chances Obama situation will pursue in are going in the and GOP will work second term country together 23Source: ABC News/Washington Post, December 24, 2012
  • 25. REPUBLICANS BLAMED MOST FOR GRIDLOCK Who do you blame more for the difficulties in 50% 47% reaching agreements and passing legislation in Congress? 40% 30% 24% 21% 20% 10% 0% Congressional GOP Obama & Democrats Both equally* * “Both equally” was not offered as a response, but Note: “Don’t know” and non 24 was recorded applicable answers not shown when mentionedSource: CBS News Poll, December 18, 2012
  • 26. CONGRESS BEGINS 2013 WITH 14% APPROVAL Annual average for 2012, 15%, was lowest in Gallup history 25Source: Gallup Poll, January 7-10, 2013
  • 27. NEITHER SIDE OF THE AISLE RECEIVES POSITIVE MARKS ON JOB PERFORMANCE Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress Disapprove Disapprove Approve 59% 71% 37% Approve 24% No opinion No opinion 3% 4% Do approve or disapprove of the way the Do approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are doing their job? Republicans in Congress are doing their job? 26Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 10-13, 2013
  • 28. Perceptions of Policy Issues Moving Forward 27
  • 29. TOP PRIORITIES FOR 2013-2014: EMPHASIZING EDUCATION AND AFFORDABLE HEALTHCARE What kinds of things would you like to see leaders in Washington deal with over the next few years? Education Emphasis 40% Access to Affordable Healthcare 33% More Personal Freedom/Less Gov. 30% Improved Morals/Values 23% Addressing & Reducing Violence 16% Corporate Oversight 12% Greater Equality & Opportunities for Women 7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 28Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey January 12-15
  • 30. YET, ECONOMIC RECOVERY STILL TOP CONCERN How important is it that President Obama accomplish each of the following during his second term as president? Extremely /Very Somewhat Not too much/at all Repair economy 95 41 Stabilize SS and Medicare 88 10 2 Prevent Iran from a nuclear weapon 79 14 7 Reduce US dependence on oil 73 17 8 Make college affordable 73 17 9 Cut federal spending 72 20 6Lower taxes, eliminate deductions and loopholes 70 23 5 Stop illegal immigration 62 24 14 Global warming 50 23 25 Increase taxes on income >$250K 47 24 28 Create paths to citizenship 37 33 29 Cut defense 29 29 38 29Source: Gallup Poll, November 9-12, 2012
  • 31. TAX REVENUE TOPS OPTIONS TO REDUCE THE DEFICIT; EDUCATION CUTS MOST OPPOSEDIn order to reduce the deficit and national debt… Approve DisapproveRaise income tax on income >$250K 69% 28% A majority of Americans see taxLimit number of deductions 54% 40% reform as the best way to reducing the deficit and debt.Raise investment taxes 52% 43%Reduce Medicare benefits for highincome seniors 51% 46%Reduce SS benefits for high income Reduce federal funding…seniors 51% 46% Approve DisapproveReduce defense spending 43% 55% To help lower-income Americans 38% 58%Raise SS retirement age 42% 56% For roads andRaise Medicare eligibility age 41% 56% transportation 30% 67%Limit mortgage interested deduction 41% 52% For education 21% 77% 30Source: Pew Research Center, December 5-9, 2012
  • 32. MAJORITY OF AMERICANS SAY DEBT CEILING SHOULD BE HANDLED SEPARATELY FROM DEBATE ON SPENDING CUTS If Congress does not raise its borrowing limit in February, the federal government will have to default on its loans and/or shut down some of its operations. Some people say the borrowing limit should be raised only if spending cuts also are put in place. Others say the two issues should be kept separate. Do you think raising the borrowing limit should be tied to spending cuts, or should these be kept as separate issues? 58% 36% Keep the issues separate Raise debt limit only with spending cuts 31Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, January 10-13, 2013
  • 33. MAJORITY OF AMERICANS FAVOR STRICTER GUN LAWS In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? Less strict 7% More strict 56% Kept as they are 35% Unsure 2% 32Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey, January 12-15, 2013
  • 34. AMERICANS OPPOSE ARMING TEACHERS BUT OPEN TO MANY OTHER REFORMS Favor % Oppose % Don’t know % Ban on semi-automatics 58 39 3 Ban online ammunition sale 53 44 3 Putting armed guards/police in schools 64 32 4 Laws to prevent people with mental illness from purchasing guns 80 16 4 Making private gun sales and sales at gun shows subject to background checks 85 12 3 Ban on assault style weapons 55 40 5 Ban on high-capacity ammunition clips that hold more than 10 bullets 54 42 4 More teachers/school officials having guns in schools 40 57 3 Creating a federal government database to track all gun sales 67 30 3 33Source: Pew Research Center, January 9-13. 2013
  • 35. AMERICANS DIVIDED ON ALLOWING ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS WITH JOBS TO APPLY FOR CITIZENSHIP As you may know, there is a proposal to allow foreigners who have jobs but are staying illegally in the United States to apply for legal status. Do you strongly favor, somewhat favor, somewhat oppose, or strongly oppose this proposal? Oppose Favor 46% 52% Depends / Not Sure, 2% 34Source: NBC News/WSJ Survey January 12-15, 2013
  • 36. MOST EXPECT MORE PARTISAN BICKERING IN 2013 This coming year, do you think Republicans and Democrats in Washington will work together more to solve problems OR do you think they will bicker and oppose one another more than usual? 70% 63% 59% 66% 60% 50% 53% 50% Work together more to solve 50% problems 40% 41% Bicker & oppose one another 30% 39% 39% more than usual 20% 30% 30% 23% No difference/DK 10% 0% Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan 2001 2002 2005 2009 2011 2013 35Source: Pew Research Center Poll, January 9-13, 2013
  • 37. GPG ResearchGPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative andquantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform messagedevelopment and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitorcritical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex economic and political topicswith diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projectivetechniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape ourclients’ messaging and strategy. For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact: Jason Boxt (jboxt@gpgdc.com) 36

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