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Måns Nilsson                                      Stockholm Environment Institute                                     and ...
IRF research agenda• Post 2015 universal development vision and  narrative• SDG objectives structure and hierarchy• Indept...
Prof. Måns Nilsson                                                                  Stockholm Environment Institute       ...
Energy as a basis for development
Exponentialgrowth in energy             use          Source: IIASA                          5
6
7
Women disproportionally affectedby lack of modern energy                                   8
Energy and development
Energy for shared development globally  faster development in the world’s poor regions, requiring energy for     productiv...
Key question• What are the energy systems implications of a  development pathway with converging per capita  incomes over ...
GDP:Shared Development
Cumulative Emissions:Scenarios Compared to Requirementsfor Climate ProtectionCumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050          ...
”Nexus” interaction: Where and when doesbioenergy hit constraints?  400  350  300  250                                    ...
Energy implications
Energy demand trajectories in different regionsEJ
Making sustainable energy for all real• Access     • 2030 Ensuring universal access to modern energy services     • 2050 +...
Municipal                                   Transition            efficiency          Enhancing efficiency     towns UK   ...
Contributing policies: transition pathways                               Stable market signalsFacilitate entry ofnew actor...
Selected policy implicationsInternational1. Establish energy access, low carbon supply and efficiency as SDGs2. Establish ...
Sustainable Development Goalscan be formulated as:• Contributing goals    – Processes and decisions towards the goals• Ult...
Low carbon supply goals / contributingR&D expenditure                   Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011   23
Low carbon supply goals / contributingPublic subsidies                   Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011   24
Low carbon supply goals / ultimateRenewable energy shares                    Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011   25
Low carbon supply goals / ultimateCost reductions                                     Source; Junginger et al 2008        ...
Access goals: contributingAnnual investments required  Total Investment needs: ca 48 billion  USD per year    (1/3 donors ...
Efficiency goals  – Activity levels of energy services in households     • Electrification and electricity use per capita ...
Energy and the Sustainable Development Agenda
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Energy and the Sustainable Development Agenda

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A presentation held by mr Måns Nilsson, head of research at Stockholm Environment Institute at the Post Rio+20 seminar at Rosenbad on September 3, 2012.

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  • This leads to enormous equity issues of course. The State of New York with its 20 M people consume about as much electricity as Subsaharan africa’s 800 million people.
  • But returning to the development challenge, a major cause of concern is the unequal use of energy.
  • There are also safety, education
  • A study we are presenting
  • Three strategies to make this happen Electrification of energy systems Move to low carbon energy sources and drastic increase in RES Efficiency
  • Need for innovation to bring costs down and acceptance up - requires public investment
  • Transcript of "Energy and the Sustainable Development Agenda"

    1. 1. Måns Nilsson Stockholm Environment Institute and Royal Institute of Technology IRFIndependent Research Forum For a Post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda12-09-03
    2. 2. IRF research agenda• Post 2015 universal development vision and narrative• SDG objectives structure and hierarchy• Indepth analysis of multilevel implementation of specific goal areas such as water, energy and food• Indicators, monitoring and learning systems 12-09-03
    3. 3. Prof. Måns Nilsson Stockholm Environment Institute and Royal Institute of TechnologyStockholm Environment Institute (SEI)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC)World Resources Institute (WRI)Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE)Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development (FBDS) Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 3
    4. 4. Energy as a basis for development
    5. 5. Exponentialgrowth in energy use Source: IIASA 5
    6. 6. 6
    7. 7. 7
    8. 8. Women disproportionally affectedby lack of modern energy 8
    9. 9. Energy and development
    10. 10. Energy for shared development globally faster development in the world’s poor regions, requiring energy for productive/ industrial economic activities world wide. Energy for ”modern society” Energy for productive and industrial purposes Access to basic energy services for the poorEnergy for basic needs and MDGs providing lighting, cooking and other basic energy services to all based on an extension of the MDG goals 10
    11. 11. Key question• What are the energy systems implications of a development pathway with converging per capita incomes over the long term? – A detailed sector-by-sector energy scenario for 22 world regions -a good chance to achieve 2 degrees climate change -meeting global needs for energy for development - observing land and water constraints – 1st roll out of basic energy services to the poor – 2nd energy demand on par with middle income • radical improvements in energy efficiency • accelerated retirement of fossil fuels • shift toward renewable energy sources
    12. 12. GDP:Shared Development
    13. 13. Cumulative Emissions:Scenarios Compared to Requirementsfor Climate ProtectionCumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050 Gt CO2Baseline 2,516Shared Development Agenda 1,165Required to Give 50% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,440Required to Give 67% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,169
    14. 14. ”Nexus” interaction: Where and when doesbioenergy hit constraints? 400 350 300 250 Low 200 M edium Strict 150 100 50 0 default no grass no nature 10% TEEB-BL forests
    15. 15. Energy implications
    16. 16. Energy demand trajectories in different regionsEJ
    17. 17. Making sustainable energy for all real• Access • 2030 Ensuring universal access to modern energy services • 2050 +Ensuring enough supply for productive economic activities world wide• Efficiency • 2030 Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency • 2050 +Electrification of processes and transport• Low carbon energy • 2030 Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix • 2050 +Ensuring land and water requirements are balanced
    18. 18. Municipal Transition efficiency Enhancing efficiency towns UK Sweden Zero- and lifestyles EfficientCarbon buildingsSeattle Netherlands EU Wind in Solar Solar EU Covenant China PV in and US of Mayors China Integrated Expanding Cook power planning stoves renewable Bio- Local India Thailand energy energy Mali ethanol Ethiopia Lighting rural Energy India for all in Hydro Asia prog power Microhydro Biofuels Indonesia and grids Brazil in SSA Expanding basic energy access Integrated power planning SA
    19. 19. Contributing policies: transition pathways Stable market signalsFacilitate entry ofnew actorsLong term and Supportindustry-close experiments /demosR&D and niche markets 20
    20. 20. Selected policy implicationsInternational1. Establish energy access, low carbon supply and efficiency as SDGs2. Establish global mechanism for energy for development – with goals, financing and technology sharingNational1. Investment and RD&D needs not met - put the state back in the game, reinvent industrial policy2. Put predictable but dynamic hard regulations in place to direct and drive innovation effortsSubnational1. Nurture private-public partnerships to enable infrastructure investments and innovation platforms2. Foster new business models and entrepreneurship for access and for efficient practices
    21. 21. Sustainable Development Goalscan be formulated as:• Contributing goals – Processes and decisions towards the goals• Ultimate goals – Outcomes - changes in behaviours / investments etc – Impacts – changes in society or the environment Policy and Policy outputs Outcomes Impacts on SD institutional and (economic, frameworks implementation environmental, decisions social)
    22. 22. Low carbon supply goals / contributingR&D expenditure Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 23
    23. 23. Low carbon supply goals / contributingPublic subsidies Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 24
    24. 24. Low carbon supply goals / ultimateRenewable energy shares Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 25
    25. 25. Low carbon supply goals / ultimateCost reductions Source; Junginger et al 2008 26
    26. 26. Access goals: contributingAnnual investments required Total Investment needs: ca 48 billion USD per year (1/3 donors / home governments / private sector) Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 27
    27. 27. Efficiency goals – Activity levels of energy services in households • Electrification and electricity use per capita • Modern cooking stoves in use – Activity levels of energy services in economic sectors – Intensity in economy wide and in sectors – Intensities / efficiency measurements in buildings • Conversion rates of existing stock • Performance of new buildings 28
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