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After the Crisis?  Migration, Austerity and NewChallenges to Social Sustainability       in the Baltic States            P...
Acknowledgments• Swedish Council for Working Life and Social  Research (FAS) Project Number: 2011-0338,  Svensk modell och...
Where we are today
GDP per capita in PPS (Euros) 2010                      Source: Eurostat, 201270,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000  ...
GDP per inhabitant and average       monthly wage (2011)Estonia• GDP per inhabitant 11,900 EUR• Average monthly wage 792 E...
Social protection expenditure as % GDP 2010               30.5%                                  18.1%                    ...
The way we were – the ‘fat years’
The ‘Baltic Tigers’ GDP Growth Rates 2006
Global Property Guide, 2007
Market shares of Swedish banks             in Baltic states                                     June 2009Market shares pub...
Sweden and Baltic household  indebtedness as % GDP             Sources: Sveriges Riksbanken Bank reports and the Riksbank
A trend that cannot continue         will not ….
‘Hard Landing’ – Taming the ‘Baltic tigers’
Real GDP growth rate compared to previous                             year (%)1510 5 0      1996   1997   1998   1999   20...
Baltic GDP 2009 % change compared with the            same quarter of the previous year                      Q1           ...
Unemployment rates in Baltic countries and                            EU27201816141210 8 6 4 2 0     2000     2001   2002 ...
Real wages in Baltics year on year 2000-201025.0020.0015.00                                                               ...
Baltic household consumption expenditure 2009  % change compared to same quarter of 2008                   source: Eurosta...
Total Population: At risk of poverty %             (Cut-off point: 60% of median equivalised income                       ...
At risk of poverty, age less than 18     (cut-off point: 60 % of median after transfers)                          2011    ...
Proportion of population at risk of poverty   or social exclusion, 2010 (%)Source: Eurostat
20% of Lithuanians live on <240 Euros permonth, 6% approx 90 Euros per month (2010)
Migration
Aggregate migration from Baltic states and Poland           to Norway, Denmark and Sweden25000                            ...
Cumulative outflows of EU8 citizens into EU15Member States (2004-2007) Thousands of Emigrants Source: Francesca DAuria, Ki...
Cumulative outflows of EU8 citizens into EU15         Member States (2004-2007)  % Working Age Population of EU8 Countries...
Emigration rates (per 1000 inhabitants) from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (2001-2011)
Baltic emigrants by age group 2011                        (% of all who emigrated that year)                              ...
Emigration by gender              (% of all emigrated that year) 2011                        Source: National statistic of...
Remittances
Remittances and earnings abroad* (EUR               million)            Source: SEB Baltic Outlook April 2012             ...
Remittances and earnings abroad* –share of household disposable income             2000-2010           Source: SEB Baltic ...
Remittances to Baltics and Poland        % of GDP 2004-2011                             Source: World Bank 20125.0        ...
Demographics and population loss
Life expectancy at birth 2010            Source: Eurostat
Life expectancy at 50 years of age (years)           Source: Jagger et al the Lancet, 17 November 2008                 Lif...
Natural increase/decrease in the Baltic     states per 1,000 population  From Peteris Zvidrins ,Centre of Demography, Univ...
Aggregate natural populationincrease/decrease 1990-2011         Source: SEB Baltic Outlook April 2012
Population reduction in Latvia  (data 2011 compared to 2000)
Demographic projections for Baltic states             2010-2060                      Source: Eurostat        Census 2012  ...
‘Voice’, democratic representation               and           social justice
Narratives of austerity
Riga January 2009Largest mass demonstration since 1991
Riga street battles
Vilnius January 2009Doors of the Lithuanian parliament
No Fear!
Teargas on Independence Square, Vilnius
Lithuania 1991 76% 2009 50%Change -26%
Lithuania2009 48%
Things are going in the right direction or in thewrong direction in your country? (% of positive)Source: Estonia HDR 2011
President Dalia Grybauskaite‘State of the Nation’ address 2010I do not think about (emigration) as merely aneconomic pheno...
Threats facing Baltic countries1.   Demographic decline threatens long-term     fiscal sustainability, especially of pensi...
After the crisis: meeting the challenges of                globalisation1. Education: Investment in skills, vocational   a...
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Charles Woolfson- After the crisis?

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A presentation held by prof Charles Woolfson at the seminar "After the Crises? Migration, Austerity and New Challenges to Social Sustainability in the Baltic States", hosted by Global Utmaning on the 7th of December 2012

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Transcript of "Charles Woolfson- After the crisis?"

  1. 1. After the Crisis? Migration, Austerity and NewChallenges to Social Sustainability in the Baltic States Professor Charles Woolfson REMESOInstitute for Research on Migration, Ethnicity and Society Linköping University Global Utmaning Workshop, 7 December 2012
  2. 2. Acknowledgments• Swedish Council for Working Life and Social Research (FAS) Project Number: 2011-0338, Svensk modell och baltisk rörlighet: harmonisering eller social dumpning? En studie av arbetsmigration mellan Baltikum och Sverige.• The Swedish Institute, Visby Programme grant 00749/2010 East-West labour migration, industrial relations and labour standards in a Swedish-Baltic context.• Indre Genelyte, REMESO doctoral candidate prepared key empirical charts in this presentation
  3. 3. Where we are today
  4. 4. GDP per capita in PPS (Euros) 2010 Source: Eurostat, 201270,00060,00050,00040,00030,00020,00010,000 0
  5. 5. GDP per inhabitant and average monthly wage (2011)Estonia• GDP per inhabitant 11,900 EUR• Average monthly wage 792 EURLatvia• GDP per inhabitant Latvia 9,800 EUR• Average monthly wage 633 EURLithuania• GDP per inhabitant 10,200 EUR• Average monthly wage 576 EUR
  6. 6. Social protection expenditure as % GDP 2010 30.5% 18.1% 17.8% 19.1% 19.0%
  7. 7. The way we were – the ‘fat years’
  8. 8. The ‘Baltic Tigers’ GDP Growth Rates 2006
  9. 9. Global Property Guide, 2007
  10. 10. Market shares of Swedish banks in Baltic states June 2009Market shares public lending Population 1.3 Population 2.3 Population 3.4 million million million Sources: Sveriges Riksbanken Bank reports and the Riksbank
  11. 11. Sweden and Baltic household indebtedness as % GDP Sources: Sveriges Riksbanken Bank reports and the Riksbank
  12. 12. A trend that cannot continue will not ….
  13. 13. ‘Hard Landing’ – Taming the ‘Baltic tigers’
  14. 14. Real GDP growth rate compared to previous year (%)1510 5 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 (f) 2013 (f) -5-10-15 EU (27 countries) Estonia Latvia Lithuania-20
  15. 15. Baltic GDP 2009 % change compared with the same quarter of the previous year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Estonia -15.0 -16.1 -15.6 -9.5 Latvia -18.5 -17.0 -19.2 -17.1 Lithuania -15.3 -16.6 -14.7 -13.2Source: Eurostat PEEIs http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-07042010-BP/EN/2-07042010-BP-EN.PDF
  16. 16. Unemployment rates in Baltic countries and EU27201816141210 8 6 4 2 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 EU (27 countries) Estonia Latvia Lithuania
  17. 17. Real wages in Baltics year on year 2000-201025.0020.0015.00 Estonia Latvia10.00 Lithuania 5.00 0.00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -5.00-10.00 Source: harmonized index of consumer prices - Eurostat online database, nominal monthly salaries – Statistics Estonia, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia, Statistics Lithuania
  18. 18. Baltic household consumption expenditure 2009 % change compared to same quarter of 2008 source: Eurostat PEEIs Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Estonia -16.5 -19.4 -19.9 -18.2Latvia -18.3 -23.5 -25.6 -21.7Lithuania -14.5 -16.9 -17.7 -19.0
  19. 19. Total Population: At risk of poverty % (Cut-off point: 60% of median equivalised income after social transfers) Source: Eurostat27 25.6 25.72523 EU 2721 20.6 Estonia 20.5 20 20 Latvia 19.7 19.5 19.3 Lithuania19 19.2 Poland 17.7 18.3 17.1 16.9 17.517 16.9 16.4 16.4 16.315 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  20. 20. At risk of poverty, age less than 18 (cut-off point: 60 % of median after transfers) 2011 Source: Eurostat, 201235302520151050
  21. 21. Proportion of population at risk of poverty or social exclusion, 2010 (%)Source: Eurostat
  22. 22. 20% of Lithuanians live on <240 Euros permonth, 6% approx 90 Euros per month (2010)
  23. 23. Migration
  24. 24. Aggregate migration from Baltic states and Poland to Norway, Denmark and Sweden25000 23418 2101120000 19146 17305 1833315000 13725 15686 15172 Sweden Norway 9257 966610000 8360 9279 8741 9024 Denmark 8069 8737 7141 7881 5098 4810 7135 5000 3708 3573 4439 1813 2389 1116 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  25. 25. Cumulative outflows of EU8 citizens into EU15Member States (2004-2007) Thousands of Emigrants Source: Francesca DAuria, Kieran Mc Morrow and Karl Pichelmann, Economic impact of migration flows following the 2004 EU enlargement process: A model based analysis.
  26. 26. Cumulative outflows of EU8 citizens into EU15 Member States (2004-2007) % Working Age Population of EU8 CountriesSource: Francesca DAuria, Kieran Mc Morrow and Karl Pichelmann, Economic impact of migration flowsfollowing the 2004 EU enlargement process: A model based analysis.
  27. 27. Emigration rates (per 1000 inhabitants) from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania (2001-2011)
  28. 28. Baltic emigrants by age group 2011 (% of all who emigrated that year) Source: National statistic offices, 201225% 21.8% 21% 19.9%20% 17.4% 17.3% 15.5%15% 13.2% 13.9% 13.5% 12.7% Estonia Latvia 10.5% 10.5% 9.7% Lithuania10% 8.4% 8.6% 8.6% 7.1% 7.6% 6.9% 6.5% 6.1% 5.5%5% 5% 4.2%0% 0-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
  29. 29. Emigration by gender (% of all emigrated that year) 2011 Source: National statistic offices, 201260% 52.7% 51.7% 50% 50%50% 47.3% 48.3%40%30% Male Female20%10%0% Estonia Latvia Lithuania
  30. 30. Remittances
  31. 31. Remittances and earnings abroad* (EUR million) Source: SEB Baltic Outlook April 2012 Latvia
  32. 32. Remittances and earnings abroad* –share of household disposable income 2000-2010 Source: SEB Baltic Outlook April 2012
  33. 33. Remittances to Baltics and Poland % of GDP 2004-2011 Source: World Bank 20125.0 4.64.54.0 Estonia Latvia3.5 Lithuania3.0 3.1 Poland 2.52.5 22.0 1.8 1.81.5 1.5 1.51.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
  34. 34. Demographics and population loss
  35. 35. Life expectancy at birth 2010 Source: Eurostat
  36. 36. Life expectancy at 50 years of age (years) Source: Jagger et al the Lancet, 17 November 2008 Life expectancy at 50 years of age (years)
  37. 37. Natural increase/decrease in the Baltic states per 1,000 population From Peteris Zvidrins ,Centre of Demography, University of Latvia, DEPOPULATION IN THE BALTIC STATES
  38. 38. Aggregate natural populationincrease/decrease 1990-2011 Source: SEB Baltic Outlook April 2012
  39. 39. Population reduction in Latvia (data 2011 compared to 2000)
  40. 40. Demographic projections for Baltic states 2010-2060 Source: Eurostat Census 2012 3 007 700 Census 2012 2 041 763
  41. 41. ‘Voice’, democratic representation and social justice
  42. 42. Narratives of austerity
  43. 43. Riga January 2009Largest mass demonstration since 1991
  44. 44. Riga street battles
  45. 45. Vilnius January 2009Doors of the Lithuanian parliament
  46. 46. No Fear!
  47. 47. Teargas on Independence Square, Vilnius
  48. 48. Lithuania 1991 76% 2009 50%Change -26%
  49. 49. Lithuania2009 48%
  50. 50. Things are going in the right direction or in thewrong direction in your country? (% of positive)Source: Estonia HDR 2011
  51. 51. President Dalia Grybauskaite‘State of the Nation’ address 2010I do not think about (emigration) as merely aneconomic phenomenon. It is rather a reflectionof the relationship between an individual andthe state.The decision to leave the homeland is a difficultone. We console ourselves by saying that it is anatural consequence of the downturn. However,the countries where our fellow citizens emigrateare also challenged by the crisis…So, let us look the reality in the face and admitthat people are emigrating not only foreconomic reasons. They are moving abroadbecause they feel alien at home.
  52. 52. Threats facing Baltic countries1. Demographic decline threatens long-term fiscal sustainability, especially of pension systems.2. Labour force high youth unemployment, shortage of skilled labour and skill mismatches, aggravated by high emigration.3. Poverty and social exclusion even higher strains on public finances in the near future.4. Social disenfranchisement and political alienation creating further migration ‘exit’
  53. 53. After the crisis: meeting the challenges of globalisation1. Education: Investment in skills, vocational and higher education for ‘high road’ of competitiveness2. Labour: Recruitment of non-Baltic labour forces to fill labour force gaps3. Citizenship: ‘Dual citizenship’ and position of non-citizens in Latvia and Estonia4. Migration policies: integration of return migrants5. Democratic/cohesion issues: ‘voice’ in politics, community and workplace
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