Aleklett-Hall-Peakoil-Postponed?

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A presentation held by prof Kjell Aleklett and prof Charles A.S Hall, at the seminar "Peak Oil Postponed?", hosted by Global Utmaning on the 7th of November 2012

A presentation held by prof Kjell Aleklett and prof Charles A.S Hall, at the seminar "Peak Oil Postponed?", hosted by Global Utmaning on the 7th of November 2012

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  • 12-11-07
  • Mention how small a portion comes from renewable sources.
  • 12-11-07
  • 12-11-07
  • Price increases lead to recessions – in fact, the three major recessions, and the small recessions in the early 1990’s and 2000’s, were all preceded by a spike in the price of oil.
  • End of a fossil fuel age.

Transcript

  • 1. 1 Stockholm, 2012 November 7Charles A. Hall Kjell AleklettState University of New York President of ASPO International College of Environmental Global Energy Systems Science and Forestry Uppsala University, Sweden Syracuse, New York, USA kjell.aleklett@geo.uu.se Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com chall@esf.edu Kjell Aleklett
  • 2. 2Our society needs oil !!! Kjell Aleklett
  • 3. Time is running out 3 Kjell Aleklett
  • 4. Global energy use ? Kjell Aleklett
  • 5. Fossil fuel and other energies Kjell Aleklett
  • 6. 6Conventional/unconventional Oil Kjell Aleklett
  • 7. What is oil?• Conventional oil • Crude oil. • Oil produced as shales oil.• Unconventional oil • Bitumen and extra heavy oil from Canada’s oil sands. • Extra heavy oil from Venezuela’s Orinoco belt. • Oil produced from oil shales (kerogen shales) • Oil produced from shale oil• Conversion into oil • Oil produced from coal by CTL methods (coal-to-liquids) • Oil produced from natural gas by GTL methods (gas-to- liquids) Kjell Aleklett
  • 8. Our Daily BarrelWe have a liquids problem Kjell Aleklett
  • 9. 9World Oil Supply in 2010 according to International Energy Agency• Total liquids 87.3 million barrels per day• Ethanol 1.8 million barrels per day• Processing gains 2.3 million barrels per day• Total oil 83.2 million barrels per day 2007 2008 2009 2010 IEA: 82.2 Mb/d 82.8 Mb/d 81.3 Mb/d 83.2 Mb/d BP: 81.5 Mb/d 82.0 Mb/d 80.3 Mb/d 82.1 Mb/d Kjell Aleklett
  • 10. There must be places where we can find more oil endowment - USGS Kjell Aleklett
  • 11. Oil and Gas in the North Sea Kjell Aleklett
  • 12. Oil Production in the North Sea 12 Kjell Aleklett
  • 13. ASPO – The Association for the Study of Peak Oil&Gas "The term Peak Oil refers the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration,recognizing that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion." Kjell Aleklett
  • 14. 14 Peak Oil Peak Oil is a liquids problem.How much will the tap deliver in the future? Kjell Aleklett
  • 15. Discovery and Production of Crude Oil in the lower 48 states in USA Kjell Aleklett
  • 16. Obama 2012-11-07: We should 16 free our self from foreign oil. Kjell Aleklett
  • 17. 17Number and size of oilfields Kjell Aleklett
  • 18. 18Number and size of oilfields Kjell Aleklett
  • 19. 19Discovery of oil Kjell Aleklett
  • 20. 20Production of crude oil Kjell Aleklett
  • 21. World Energy Outlook 2010 – Crude Oil Production from field yet to be found: 18 Mb/d Prediction for 2030 WEO 2004 – 121 Mb/d WEO 2006 – 116 Mb/d WEO 2008 – 106 Mb/d WEO 2010 – 96 Mb/d WEO 2012 – 86? Mb/d “Peak of the Oil Age” K. Aleklett, M. Höök, K. Jakobsson, M. Lardelli, S. Snowden, B. Söderbergh Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 3, March 2010, Pages 1398-1414 Kjell Aleklett
  • 22. The peak oil production in theNorth Sea was 6 Mb/d. 18 Mb/d is three North Seas Kjell Aleklett
  • 23. Oil and Gas in the North Sea Kjell Aleklett
  • 24. 24First Press Release from ASPO 2002“The world oil depletion curve, above, is based on all availableinformation on oil reserves and estimates of the amounts yet-to-find, and indicates that world oil production will reach a peak (85million barrels per day) around 2010 and decline thereafter.” Kjell Aleklett
  • 25. 25The Uppsala scenarios andproduction according to BP 2007: Thesis by Fredrik Robeliusand data from BP Statistical Review of World Energy Kjell Aleklett
  • 26. 26 Peak of the Oil Age Prediction for 2030 WEO 2004 – 121 Mb/d WEO 2006 – 116 Mb/d WEO 2008 – 106 Mb/d WEO 2010 – 96 Mb/d WEO 2012 – 86? Mb/d “Peak of the Oil Age” K. Aleklett, M. Höök, K. Jakobsson, M. Lardelli, S. Snowden, B. Söderbergh Energy Policy, Volume 38, Issue 3, March 2010, Pages 1398-1414Without shale oil Kjell Aleklett
  • 27. 27Conventional/unconventional Oil Kjell Aleklett
  • 28. Reported Reserves of Oil Sands and Crude Oil (Billion barrels) 300 250 200 Saudia Arabia Iran IraqBillion Bbls United Arab Emirates 150 Kuwait Venezuela Russia Libya 100 Nigeria U.S. Canada´s Oil Sands 50 0 Kjell Aleklett
  • 29. Athabasca oil sand and 29First Nations in the regions Kjell Aleklett
  • 30. Oil (tar) sand production 30 Kjell Aleklett
  • 31. Oil sand production Kjell Aleklett
  • 32. “Crash Program Production” fromCanadian Oil Sands, (Energy Policy, 2007) 7000 6000Thousand Bbls Per Day 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 Year Total Mining, Crash Program Total In Situ, Crash Program Bengt Söderbergh, Fredrik Robelius, Kjell Aleklett Energy Policy 35 (2007) 1931–1947 Kjell Aleklett
  • 33. 335 Mb/d - The size of the tap in 2030 Data by the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. Kjell Aleklett
  • 34. 34The two new ”taps” from Alberta Kjell Aleklett
  • 35. 35Enbridge Northern Gateway pipeline Kjell Aleklett
  • 36. 36 Enbridge Northern Gateway pipelineOil Pipeline•Transport petroleum from Edmonton to Kitimat•1,177 km in length•36 inches in diameter•Will carry an average of 525,000 barrels of “oil” (delbit blands has 25% condensate, aound 125,000 barrels per day, net oilsand production through pipeline is 400,000 barrels per day)Condensate Pipeline•Transport condensate from Kitimat to Edmonton •1,177 km in length •20 inches in diameter •Will carry an average of 193,000 barrels of condensate per day •Condensate is used to thin petroleum products for pipelinetransport Kjell Aleklett
  • 37. 37The US “tap” – The Keystone pipelines Kjell Aleklett
  • 38. Crude Oil Infrastructure Bottlenecks in North America Caused by Huge Increase in Shale Oil ProductionCanadian Oil Sands Productionbeing shipped to the US by rail. RBN Energy Kjell Aleklett
  • 39. 39The Vancouver Observer (Nov 30th, 2011) Let’s be clear about one thing: Big Tar is planning to build lots of new pipelines. Keystone XL was just one of many. The tar sands industry says they plan to increase their production by 4.5 million barrels per day in the next 25 years. Here is how many pipes they will need to move that extra oil: • 15 new pipelines the size of existing Kinder Morgan Transmountain into Vancouver, or • 8 more pipelines the size of the proposed Enbridge “Northern Gateway” giant to Kitimat Kjell Aleklett
  • 40. 40Capacity2025: 2.4 Mb/d Kjell Aleklett
  • 41. 41The Yinka Dene AllianceIncludes 6 First Nations (Nadleh Whuten, Nakazdli, Takla Lake, 1Saikuz, and Wetsuweten) in northern BC who have banned theEnbridge Northern Gateway Pipelines from their territories. Kjell Aleklett
  • 42. 42 Export andimport of oil Kjell Aleklett
  • 43. 43Kjell Aleklett
  • 44. We Have to Build a ”Crash Mat” Kjell Aleklett
  • 45. 45 World Oil May 2012“This book should be requiredreading for anyone seriouslyinterested in the future worldenergy market and economy,especially politicians andpolicymakers. “ Kjell Aleklett
  • 46. CHARLES A. HALLDECLINING EROI (FOR PRODUCERS)
  • 47. EROI: definition, history and future implications
  • 48. I. DEFINITION of EROI (Sometimes EROEI)Energy return on investment for an activity: Energy delivered to societyEROI = __________________________ Energy put into that activityUsually consider energy invested from society
  • 49. Best First Principle• Humans use high quality, low cost resources before low quality, high cost resources (Ricardo)• Best-to-worst ordering of resource exploitation
  • 50. • Spindletop , Beaumont Texas, 1901.• 18 million barrels a year from a trivial investment.
  • 51. The energy cost of getting the next barrel is going way up
  • 52. • Today: Thunder horse platform -- up to 90 million barrels a year –but investment is huge
  • 53. US Oil Field Size 80Millions of barrels 60 40 20 0 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
  • 54. Petroleum production in Norway in 1970 – 2008
  • 55. Energetic cost of petroleum production in Norway in 1991 – 2008. Leena Grandell
  • 56. EROI of Norwegian petroleum production in 1991 – 2008 EROI for Norwegian oil has declined by half in 11 years 
  • 57. EROI for Oil: US and other
  • 58. Horizontal fracking - part 1 63
  • 59. Horizontal fracking - part 2 64
  • 60. Production from a good shale well 65
  • 61. 66
  • 62. 67
  • 63. 68
  • 64. 69
  • 65. 70
  • 66. 71
  • 67. Two miles west of Parshall – not an oil rig in sight….
  • 68. Three miles West of Parshall – first grasshopper
  • 69. Then the oil rigs came faster than you could snap th pictures – dozens and hundreds
  • 70. New City: First of many, many fracing facilities
  • 71. Downtown New City
  • 72. New City : Housing
  • 73. Typical street corner scene
  • 74. Typical scene …
  • 75. Typical (?) drill site
  • 76. Looks like a sweet spot to me…
  • 77. Before long…no more visible oil activity
  • 78. Energy Prices http://econ.worldbank.org
  • 79. Metals Prices
  • 80. III.c DECLINING EROI FOR IMPORTERS custserv@press.uchicago.edu
  • 81. Figure in page 62
  • 82. Figure in page 63
  • 83. IV. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS
  • 84. Another way of looking at the same data
  • 85. Global petroleum
  • 86. Scope of the problem.This concentrator photovoltaic collector can generate 138 kilowatt-hours per day, half the energy consumptionof an average American.
  • 87. Systems science has often been concerned with STABILITY
  • 88. 4. Every recession since 1970 has been preceded by a spike in the price of oil
  • 89. Break-Even CostMcKinsey GEM, 2010 using IEA, Wood Mackenzie, Interstate Oil and Gas Compact Commission
  • 90. R. Hersh
  • 91. CONCLUSIONS1.Economic growth in the past has been highly dependentupon growth in fossil fuels2.We cannot assume this growth will continue3.While technology is important and continuing, it appearsthat depletion is trumping technology as indicated bydeclining production and EROI4.The U.K. is likely to depend increasingly on the EROI ofimported fuels5.Our existing economic approaches and theories arecompletely inadequate for understanding this situation
  • 92. Can we learn anything from ecology?In ecology, succession occurs after a disturbance. Production (photosynthetic energycapture) increases rapidly and then becomes asymptotic. Respiration (energy use)increases more slowly as biomass increases. Eventually, energy use equals energygain and the system stops growing.
  • 93. -
  • 94. 113 Epilogue  The Champagne Festival Kjell Aleklett
  • 95. Oil fields in Iraq Kjell Aleklett
  • 96. Oil fields in IraqLet us squeeze in 100 Gb of oil into one bottle of Champagne. Kjell Aleklett
  • 97. “We are drinking oil!” If 100 Gb of oil is squeezedinto one bottle of Champagnewe have consumed 11 bottles. Kjell Aleklett
  • 98. The global reserve of crude oil is 8 (9) bottles of Champagne Kjell Aleklett
  • 99. Where to find the crude oilor the 8 bottles of Champagne ? Kjell Aleklett
  • 100. The global consumption per year is 30 billion barrels of oil One bottle of Champagne is equal to the consumption in three years and four months. Kjell Aleklett
  • 101. The USA is addicted to oil President Bush, Capitol Hill, 2006: “We have a serious problem. America is addicted to oil” From the beginning the nature had put two bottles in the ground in USA. They are just now sipping on the last glass. Kjell Aleklett
  • 102. The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of Champagne We will discover two more bottles of Champagne We also have three more bottles“sparkling wine” in Canada and Venezuela. Kjell Aleklett
  • 103. The global reserve of crude oil is 8 bottles of ChampagneWe have in total 11 bottles (8+3) to empty and 2 more tofind, in total 13 bottles. If it takes 3 1/3 years to empty onebottle everyone should be aware of that the party is overand that we need to sobering up! + + Kjell Aleklett