201403 acs system integration the next horizon - pdfversion

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A recent conference paper depicting the next technology horizon especially in healthcare, how the new industrial internet era, vertical urban farming and mesh-networked driverless integrated public transport will reshape our congested megacities into liveable carbon-capture mega-systems, and bring our buildings to Life...

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201403 acs system integration the next horizon - pdfversion

  1. 1. 2014 Technology & IT conference1 2014 Technology & IT Conference Current & future directions of technology in the sector Rydges Sydney Airport | 24 March 2014 Head Consultant, Management & Technology | GDN consulting firm Systems Integrations The Next Horizon
  2. 2. 2014 Technology & IT conference2 Global risks Megatrends Content
  3. 3. 2014 Technology & IT conference3 Content | Other reference
  4. 4. 2014 Technology & IT conference4 global risks
  5. 5. 2014 Technology & IT conference5 2014 Global Risks Map Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2013 / 2014 (World Economic Forum)
  6. 6. 2014 Technology & IT conference6 Top 10 Global Risks Environment / sustainability Financial / Economic Geo-political Societal Source: Global Risks Perception Survey 2013 / 2014 (World Economic Forum)
  7. 7. 2014 Technology & IT conference7 sustainability
  8. 8. 2014 Technology & IT conference8 Human population Biosphere regeneration Human consumption ~ 1.3 times what the planet can sustain Net loss 28% Steadily growing since mid 80’s Source: Simms A., NEF (New Economics Foundation), London Earth Profit & Loss 2014 based on Averaged human lifestyle
  9. 9. 2014 Technology & IT conference9 Resources & multi-polar geopolitics dichotomy
  10. 10. 2014 Technology & IT conference10 Real world & economic dichotomy “Irredeemable money has almost invariably proved a curse to the country employing it” Fisher, I. 1911, The purchasing power of money Economy Real World The continuous economic growth delusion fiat (irredeemable) money system M.V = Pr.Q Quantity Theory of Money I = Po.A.T Ehrlich / Holdren equation or P = M.(V/Q) Derived Theory of Inflation
  11. 11. 2014 Technology & IT conference11 A way out of the monopoly conundrum? Economy Real World M.V = Pr.Q Quantity Theory of Money I = Po.A.T Ehrlich / Holdren equation M.V = Pr.Q I = Po.A.T Re-link currency to a tangible specie (Unit of Sustainable Biosphere) ey M = monetary mass in circulation V = velocity of money in circulation Pr = price index Q = quantity consummed expressed in physical unit a = fixed exchange rate U = unit of sustainable biosphere R = regenerated biosphere I = impact of human activity B = biosphere size Rj = biosphere regenerative index Po = human population size A = affluence factor expressed in currency T = technological factor expressed in CO2 emmission M.V = Pr.Q M = a.U U = R-I R = B.Rj I = Po.A.T  The top-down equivalent of a new Bretton-Woods  Recent G20 proposal failures (Zhou Xiaochuan)  “Too many Chefs in the kitchen”
  12. 12. 2014 Technology & IT conference12 Disconnected physical & financial worlds ETR (Ecological tax reform)?? EIA (Environmental impact assessment)?? Inter-sector policies, new institutions, legal reform?? IM (Industrial metabolism) ?? VA (Voluntary agreement) ?? EE (Ecological economics) ??  Climate change  Financial crises  Social instabilities  Major fiscal imbalances  Ineffective multi-polar geopolitics
  13. 13. 2014 Technology & IT conference13 climate change
  14. 14. 2014 Technology & IT conference14 The 2º C tipping point 2 x unstoppable feedback loops kick-in:  Deep ocean Methane release  Permafrost CO2 release °C Eq CO2 2°C Runaway CC
  15. 15. 2014 Technology & IT conference15 How are (24 x ) biggest emitters tracking? Latest estimate  3.7º C increase Source: Climate Action Tracker | Climate Analytics, Ecofys Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  16. 16. 2014 Technology & IT conference16 Potential reforestation Food growing Habitable zones Inhabitable deserts Inhabitable floods, droughts extreme weather Land lost to rising waters (2m assumption) a map of climate change risks The World 4ºC warmer Source: New Scientist Climate Change Report, 2009
  17. 17. 2014 Technology & IT conference17 Climate change risks & demographics • Since 2008, more people in cities than rural areas • 95% cities located in climate change risk zones
  18. 18. 2014 Technology & IT conference18 Climate change risks & geo-political instabilities
  19. 19. 2014 Technology & IT conference19 ageing world
  20. 20. 2014 Technology & IT conference20 Ageing population & major fiscal imbalance risks Worker (15 to 64) to Retiree (64+) dependency ratios Source: UN, Department of Economic & Social Affairs, 2013
  21. 21. 2014 Technology & IT conference21 New market megatrends
  22. 22. 2014 Technology & IT conference22 Source: Gartner 2014 Top Predictions for IT & Users | GFK, Verdict Research, Javelin Group, 2008 be where the client wants you to be when they want you to be there The rise of multi-channeling (Clicks & Bricks) & direct sourcing (personal tailored manufacturing)  Disruptive global digital neo-economics including conventional barter resurgence  New global redeemable digital currencies & economic dematerialization  Generalised crowdsourcing along the entire value chain  3D printing manufacturing revolution & IP challenge  3D printing of live tissues & organs (Bio-printing) The new Maslow’s
  23. 23. 2014 Technology & IT conference23 Industrial metabolism & economic dematerialization P&L (US$ b) Net sales 100 GP 25 Labor 8 Marketing 5 Others 7 Tot Exp 20 NIBT + 5 Balance sheet (US$ b) Assets 70 Current 20 Fixed 50 Liabilities & Equity 70 Current 10 Long-term 30 Equity 30 Physical accounting measured in physical units Triple Bottom Line Planet People Profit  Product research, recycling, energy needs  Build-To-Order 3D printing manufacture  Blurred demand & supply chains  Shortening product lifecycle  Crowdsourcing research  Reclaimed / recycled construction material  Recycling-conscious building design  On-site renewable energy sources  Low energy consumption  Waste reduction  Telecommuting  Carbon-neutral Modal shift to low-carb co-transportation “Predictive forecast”-driven logistics
  24. 24. 2014 Technology & IT conference24 The rise of agile micro internationals & SOLO* | SOHO** | SME***  Small is Beautiful  ~0.5b businesses globally, but…  By 2020  4.6b global workers, 88% (4b) in knowledge-based jobs  A new type of workforce  freelance-able, on-demand & independent  Evolving industry organizations with deeper involvement in members’ affairs * SOLO = Solo-Entrepreneur ** SOHO = Small Office Home Office *** SME = Small & Medium Enterprises 88% (4b)
  25. 25. 2014 Technology & IT conference25 The rise of the machines 1/3 Courtesy: GE, 2012, Industrial Internet White Paper
  26. 26. 2014 Technology & IT conference26 The rise of the machines 2/3 The Internet of Things IPv4 (4.3b addresses)  IPv6 (3% in 2014) Big Data Analytics Deep domain expertise & learning algorithms merging genomics & informatics 6th level normalization & above Mobile connecting technology Smart information Smart machines
  27. 27. 2014 Technology & IT conference27 Rise of the machines 3/3  Healthcare perspective * Source: 2011, OECD Health Data, Health Spending Per Capita by source of funding US$ 731b Estimated global healthcare system current inefficiencies
  28. 28. 2014 Technology & IT conference28 Metropolis & Mobility The integrated new megacity
  29. 29. 2014 Technology & IT conference29  Evolving from net emitters to carbon-capture mega-systems  Sustainable autonomous flexible re-configurable buildings  Integrated vertical urban farming (edible + bio-fuels) The rise of the sustainable integrated megacities 95% cities located in climate change risk zones  Ideal candidates to tackle the issue 1. 40% water needs reduction 2. Biosphere size increase 3. Carbon-capture system
  30. 30. 2014 Technology & IT conference30 population & mobility asynchronous trends The hyper-connected World Connectedness + telecommuting  Decrease in travel Sydney – London in 2 nanoseconds P = physical movement I = mass of information in circulation  IP f 1  Higher demand for small fuel-efficient cars or for no cars at all (Millennial cliff) 46% * Source: 2012 New York Times Research Millennial preferences 18~24 y-o US drivers choose access to the Internet over owning a car *
  31. 31. 2014 Technology & IT conference31 Urban mobility  the new horizon • Congestion-free cities replace end-users as the new automotive clients • Integrated mass individual + public urban transport • Self-guided vehicles for ageing population • Fluid mechanics applied to traffic flows • End of the ubiquitous traffic light
  32. 32. 2014 Technology & IT conference32 Real life example | Commercial driverless cars http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3HdqeZMNco  5 x US driverless laws since Dec 2013  CES 2014  9 x driverless models  Google new driverless economics
  33. 33. 2014 Technology & IT conference33 Living space The integrated ALIVE building
  34. 34. 2014 Technology & IT conference34 Integrated building | Embedded robotics Integration between mobile & fixed (security, lifts, doors) systems Royal North Shore Hospital | St Leonards http://youtu.be/w1zupfTftcY
  35. 35. 2014 Technology & IT conference35 Integrated building | Inverted Info flow 1/2  The imminent end of the ubiquitous KVM (Keyboard, Video, Mouse)  Pervasive embedded sensor, data-collecting & connecting technology  Integrating systems by connecting medical sensors to applications The Old KVM paradigm
  36. 36. 2014 Technology & IT conference36 Integrated building | Inverted Info flow 2/2  The advent of “Big Data Analytics” & “smart information”  “Smart information” routes itself to the right users  The entire building becomes a workstation  The building is “alive” & cares  NUI* & embedded VR / AR** * NUI = Natural User Interface ** VR = Virtual Reality AR = Augmented Reality
  37. 37. 2014 Technology & IT conference37 Integrated building | The new (G) NUI* * GUI = Graphical User Interface NUI = Natural User Interface
  38. 38. 2014 Technology & IT conference38 Real life example | Thomas Holt Kirrawee site • Integrated self-aware, self-healing & self-maintaining “alive” building • Technology & IT consulting involved at pre-design stage • High, subacute & palliative focus in line with trends • Client needs & information flow drive architecture • Residents & workforce friendly design
  39. 39. 2014 Technology & IT conference39 Aged-friendly modular stair-less radial design self  supported living  subacute  end-of-life (same room) Existing Homes | Rebuild or retrofit Or ….
  40. 40. 2014 Technology & IT conference40 Existing Homes | Rebuild or retrofit… Or?Wearable exoskeletons
  41. 41. 2014 Technology & IT conference41 Summary  Recommendations Marketing / Business Development 1. Identify & engage with your audiences experientially & digitally (public, clients, contacts, workforce, partners) 2. Shift from informational website to integrated transactional multi-device online presence 3. Align / Embed with your business development & marketing strategies 4. Think 360º client solutions not just RESIDENTIAL 5. Diversify both service offering & funding base Organizational / Operational perspective 1. Scrutinize your entire value chain including organizational framework & its integration with your supply chain 2. Consider strategic in & out-sourcing across all functions | lobby / leverage of your industry association/s 3. If you’re yet to do so, shift to paperless fully electronic operations across all functions Assets 1. Be strategic & forward looking  Your building will be around for decades 2. Involve your IT & technology people at design brief stage 3. Think laterally & literally outside the square
  42. 42. 2014 Technology & IT conference42

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