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THE THEORY OF PUBLIC
 ADMINISTRATION


            Linkage Master Programmes
                  g            g
Double Degree FIA-UNIBRAW and Japanese Universities
                Universitas Brawijaya

    Lecturer              :   Prof. Dr. Ir. Ginandjar Kartasasmita
                              jgkar@cbn.net.id
                              www.ginandjar.com
                                  g     j
    Assistant Professor   :   Dr.Ir. Deddy S. Bratakusumah, BE, MURP, M.Sc.
                              deddys@bappenas.go.id
PLANNING AND BUDGETING
DEVELOPMENT THEORIES

1. THE LINEAR-STAGES THEORY
2. STRUCTURAL-CHANE
2 STRUCTURAL CHANE MODELS
3. THE INTERNATIONAL-DEPENDENCE
   REVOLUTION
4. THE NEOCLASSICAL
   COUNTERREVOLUTION
5. THE NEW GROWTH THEORY
                           (TODARO,
                           (TODARO 2000)




                                           3
THE LINEAR-STAGES THEORY
    LINEAR STAGES


1. ROSTOW’S STAGES OF GROWTH
  1.
  1 THE TRADITIONAL SOCIETY
  2. THE PRE-CONDITION FOR TAKE OFF INTO SELF-
     SUS
     SUSTAINING GROWTH
              GG O
  3. THE TAKE OFF
  4. THE DRIVE TO MATURITY
  5. THE AGE OF HIGH MASS CONSUMPTION
2. THE HARROD-DOMAR GROWTH
   MODEL
          Y/Y = s/k
                                                 4
STRUCTURAL-CHANGE MODELS


1. THE LEWIS THEORY OF
   DEVELOPMENT
  LEWIS TWO SECTOR MODEL (TRADITIONAL AND
  MODERN)
2. STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND
   PATTERNS OF DEVELOPMENT
          SO        O
  AGRICULTURE – INDUSTRY – CONSTRUCTION &
  SERVICES



                                            5
THE INTERNATIONAL-
     DEPENDENCE REVOLUTION


1.   THE NEOCOLONIAL DEPENDENCE MODEL
     UNDERDEVELOPMENT IS SEEN AS AN EXTERNALLY
     INDUCED PHENOMENON
2.
2    THE FALSE-PARADIGM MODEL
         FALSE PARADIGM
     UNDERDEVELOPMENT IS CAUSED BY FAULTY AND
     INAPPROPRIATE ADVICE FROM INTERNATIONAL “EXPERT”
3.   THE DUALISTIC-DEVELOPMENT THESIS
     THE EXISTENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF INCREASING
     DIVERGENCES BETWEEN RICH AND POOR NATIONS
     AND RICH AND POOR PEOPLES ON VARIOUS LEVEL

                                                        6
THE NEOCLASSICAL
   COUNTERREVOLUTION

1. FREE MARKETS, PUBLIC CHOICE, &
   MARKET FRIENDLY APPROACHES
  PRIVATIZATIONS, GOVERNMENTS CAN DO NOTHING
  RIGHT, “NONSELECTIVE” INTERVENTIONS
       ,
2. TRADITIONAL NEOCLASSICAL
   GROWTH THEORY
  OUTPUT GROWTH RESULTS FROM ONE OR MORE OF
  THREE FACTORS: INCREASES IN LABOR QUANTITY
  AND QUALITY, INCREASES IN CAPITAL, AND
      QUALITY               CAPITAL
  IMPROVEMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY
               Y = AeµtKαL1-α
                                               7
THE NEW GROWTH THEORY


ENDOGENOUS GROWTH
   SEEK TO EXPLAIN THE FACTORS THAT
   DETERMINE THE SIZE OF µ (THE RATE OF
   GROWTH OF GDP), THAT IS LEFT
              GDP)
   UNEXPLAINED AND EXOGENOUSLY
   DETERMINED IN THE SOLOW NEOCLASSICAL
   GROWTH EQUATION

       Y = AeµtKαL1-α     Y = AeµtK


                                      8
DEVELOPMENT AS
TRANSFORMATION OF SOCIETY


A MOVEMENMT FROM TRADITIONAL
RELATIONS, TRADITIONAL WAYS OF
THINKING, TRADITIONAL WAYS OF
        ,
DEALING WITH HEALTH AND
EDUCATION, TRADITIONAL
METHODS OF PRODUCTION TO MORE
“MODERN” WAYS

                     (STIGLITZ,1998)


                                       9
THE SUCCESSFUL
  TRANSFORMATION OF SOCIETY


1. RAISE THE GDP PER CAPITA
2. RAISE STANDARD OF HEALTH AND
   LITERACY
3. REDUCE POVERTY
4.
4 SUSTAINING THE ENVIRONMENT

                        (STIGLITZ,1998)




                                          10
THE STRATEGY INCLUDING


1.   PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
2.   PUBLIC SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
3.
3    COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT
4.   FAMILY DEVELOPMENT
5.   INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPMENT

                          (STIGLITZ,1998)




                                            11
THE PRIORITY


1.   EDUCATION
2.   INFRASTRUCTURE
3.
3    HEALTH
4.   KNOWLEDGE
5.   CAPACITY BUILDING

                         (STIGLITZ,1998)




                                           12
THE UN MILLENNIUM
      DEVELOPMENT GOALS

1.   ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER
2.   ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION
3.   PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER
     WOMAN
4
4.   REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY
5.   IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH
6.   COMBAT HIV/AIDS, MALARIA AND OTHER
     DISEASES
7.   ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY
8.
8    DEVELOP A GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR
     DEVELOPMENT

                                            13
SOME DEFINITIONS OF PLANNING

   PLANNING IS THE APPLICATION OF
   SCIENTIFIC METHODS TO POLICY MAKING
                           (FALUDI, 1983)



   PLANNING IS A PROCESS FOR
   DETERMINING APPROPRIATE FUTURE
   ACTION THROUGH A SEQUENCE OF
   CHOICES
                   (
                   (DAVIDOFF AND REINER, 1983)
                         O             , 983)




                                                 14
PLANNING
 A DELIBERATE AND CONCIOUS ATTEMPT TO
 FORMULATE DECISIONS FROM SOME
 ALTERNATIVES TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS

 THE ELEMENTS OF PLANNING:
 1. GOALS
 2. PRIORITY AND TARGETS
 3. TIME FRAME
 4. CONSTRAINTS
 5. CAPITAL AND RESOURCES, AND ITS ALLOCATIONS
 6.
 6 IMPLEMENTATION POLICIES AND STRATEGIES
 7. IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES AND HUMAN RESOURCES
 8. MONITORING, EVALUATION AND CONTROL MECHANISM
               ,
                                              15
PLANNING CRITERIA

  1. COMPREHENSIVE AND INDICATIVE
  2. CONTROL AND DIRECTING GOVERNMENT
     SPENDING IN ORDER TO STIMULATE THE
     PRIVATE INVESTMENT
  3. STIMULATE MARKET MECHANISM
  4. PEOPLE PARTICIPATION PROCESS
  5. AFFIRMATIVE ACTION TO WHOM CAN’T
     SUIT THE MARKET MECHANISM




                                          16
THE SHIFT OF DEVELOPMNET
PLANNING

  IN USA AND UK THE DEVELOPMENT
  PLANNING BEEN ABANDONED
                 ABANDONED,

  THE NEW FOCUS ON:
  1. DEREGULATION
  2. PRIVATISATION
  3.
  3 URBAN ECONOMIC ZONE


                                  17
OTHER REASON


 DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND PUBLIC
 REGULATION, NO MORE APPROPRIATE,
 BECAUSE IT HINDERS CREATIVITY,,
 PRIVATE INITIATIVE, BURDEN TO
 INOVATION, AND CREATE A HIGH
 COST ECONOMY

           CLASSICAL LIBERAL

                                18
THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT
THROUGH PLANNING

 IRVING SVERDLOW (1963):


   OPERATION (PROVIDING PUBLIC GOODS)
   DIRECT CONTROL (TARIFF)
   INDIRECT CONTROL (STANDARDIZATION)
   DIRECT INFLUENCE (INCENTIVE)
   INDIRECT INFLUENCE (EXPORT MARKET
   INFORMATION)

                                        19
WHY WE DO PLANNING?


  DECREASING UNCERTAINTY
  INTEGRATING SOME RATIONAL
  METHODS AND TECHNOLOGIES INTO
  PROBLEM SOLVING PROCESS AND
  DECISION MAKING PROCESS




                                  20
WHY WE DO PLANNING ?



PROVIDING THE CHANCE ANG BLUE
PRINT TO CONTROL AND MONITOR THE
PUBLIC EFFORTS FROM TIME TO TIME
INCREASING PARTICIPATION FROM THE
PEOPLE ON DECISION MAKING AT LEAST
                   MAKING,
WIDENING THE HORIZON OF THE PUBLIC
EXPONENT


                                   21
OTHER REASONS
 IF WE COULD FIRST KNOW WHERE WE ARE,
 AND WHITHER WE ARE TENDING, WE COULD
 BETTER JUDGE WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO
                      DO,
 DO IT
                      (ABRAHAM LINCOLN)


 THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN THE ECONOMIC
 LIFE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES NEEDS TO
 BE REAPPRAISED…. NOT BY STRONG
 IDEOLOGICAL OVERTURES, BUT BY
 PRAGMATIC CONSIDERATIONS OF FEASIBLE
 ALTERNATIVES
                           (M. SINGH)

                                          22
OTHER REASONS
  MARKET FAILURE
  RESOURCE MOBILIZATION AND
  ALLOCATION
  ATTITUDINAL OR PSYCHOLOGICAL
  IMPACT
  FOREIGN AID ?

                      (TODARO, 2000)



                                       23
THE ROLE OF PLANNERS

 WHAT IS OR SHOULD BE THE TOPIC OR FOCUS
 OF PLANNING?
 WHO DOES THE PLANNER WORK FOR?
 WHAT IS THE GOAL OF PLANNING?
 (IS EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES POSSIBLE?)
 HOW DO WE ACHIEVE OUR GOALS?
 (IS RATIONAL DECISION MAKING POSSIBLE?)
 WHAT IS PRACTICAL EXPECTATIONS?
                                    (LEW, 1996)




                                                  24
PLANNING APPROACH

   (1)   POLITICAL
   (2)   TECNOCRATIC
   (3)   PARTICIPATIVE
   (4)   TOP-DOWN
   (5)   BOTTOM-UP




                         25
THE PLANNING APPROACH

 1. RATIONAL PLANNING
     SYNOPTIC PLANNING, COMPREHENSIVE
     PLANNING
     BASIS FOR MOST PUBLIC PLANNING
 2. INCREMENTAL PLANNING
 3. ADVOCACY PLANNING
 4. TRANSACTIVE PLANNING




                                        26
RATIONAL PLANNING
THE STEPS:

1. IDENTIFY A PROBLEM
2. IDENTIFY A GOAL
3. COLLECT BACKGROUND DATA
4. IDENTIFY A MEANS OF ASSESSING
   ALTERNATIVE PLAN SCENARIOS
5. IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE PLAN SCENARIOS
     CONSISTING OF POLICIES AND GUIDELINES TO
     ACHIEVE THE GOAL

                                                27
RATIONAL PLANNING



6.  ASSESS ALTERNATIVE PLAN SCENARIOS
7.  SELECT THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE
8.  IMPLEMENT THE PLAN
9.  MONITOR, EVALUATE AND REVISE THE
    IMPLEMENTATION
10. IDENTIFY NEW PROBLEMS AND BEGIN
    THE PROCESS AGAIN



                                        28
RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE

  TYPICALLY MORE COMPLEX THAN THE STEPS

A. COMPLETE AGENCY PRE-PLANNING
   ACTIVITIES

  1.
  1 CLARIFY AGENCY MISSION, ROLE,
                    MISSION ROLE
     RESPONSIBILITIES
  2. DELINEATE INTENDED PURPOSE AND USE OF
     THE PLAN
  3. DETERMINE PLAN FRAMEWORK AND FORMAT
                                          29
RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE




B. ESTABLISH GOALS, GUIDELINES, AND
   STANDARDS

    4. DEVELOP A PLANNING PROCESS TO DO
       THIS:
         -   METHODOLOGIES    DATA REQUIREMENTS
         -   PARTICIPANTS     ORIENTATION/EDUCATION
         -   COORDINATION     ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
         -   EVALUATION PROCEDURE

    5.
    5 DEVELOP A WORK PROGRAM TO DO THIS
    6. ESTABLISH GOALS
    7. ESTABLISH GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS
                                                   30
RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE




C. IDENTIFY NEEDS & PRIORITIES, ESTABLISH
   OBJECTIVES, AND DEVELOP PLAN
   IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY

    8.
    8 DEVELOP THE PLANNING PROCESS
    9. DEVELOP THE WORK PROGRAM AND TIME
       SCHEDULE
    10. IDENTIFY NEEDS
    11. DETERMINE PRIORITIES
    12. ESTABLISH OBJECTIVES
    13. DEVELOP THE PLAN IMPLEMENTATION
        STRATEGY
                                         31
RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE




D. PUBLISH AND IMPLEMENT THE PLAN

E. EVALUATE RESULTS & REVIEW,
   REVISE AND UPDATE THE PLAN




                                     32
CRITICS ON RATIONAL
PLANNING


 RATIONAL PLANNING IS OFTEN CRITICIZED BUT
 IT STILL REMAINS THE MOST COMMON
 APPROACH TO PLANNING

 BECAUSE IT IS:
 RATIONAL AND THEREFORE EASIER TO JUSTIFY


                                 (LEW, 1996)




                                               33
ASSUMPTIONS
 1. ASSUMES THAT PEOPLE BEHAVE
    RATIONALLY
   -   THAT RATIONALITY IS A PART OF EVERYDAY LIFE
   -   THAT PEOPLE AND EVENTS ARE PREDICTABILITY
 2. ASSUMES UNLIMITED PROBLEM SOLVING
    CAPABILITIES AND PERFECT INFORMATION
   -   COST OF INFORMATION COLLECTION IS
       AFFORDABLE
   -   ABILITY TO IDENTIFY ALL ALTERNATIVES
       (‘SYNOPTIC’)


                                                 34
ASSUMPTIONS

3. ASSUMES THAT ONLY FACTS EXIST
  -   NO VALUES (SUBJECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEMS)
                (                         )
  -   ALL VARIABLES EXIST WITHIN AN
      INTERCONNECTED AND CLOSED SYSTEM (NO
      UNFORESEEABLE VARIABLES)
4. ASSUMES A RATIONAL-DEDUCTIVE SEQUENCE
   OF EVENTS
  -   IF ‘A’ HAPPENS, THE ‘B’ WILL FOLLOW
  -   NO NEED FOR POLITICAL STRATEGIES
  -   NOT SUITED FOR CRISIS OR UNFORESEEN EVENTS


                                                   35
INCREMENTAL PLANNING

     AN ALTERNATIVE THEORY THAT ACCEPTS MOST
     OBVIOUS SHORTCOMINGS OF RATIONAL
     PLANNING

     DEVELOPED FROM THE PEACE CORPS IN THE
     1960S

 1. LIMITED TIME PERIODS/HORIZONS
 2. POLITICAL DECISION MAKING
 3. LIMITED AND IMPERFECT INFORMATION


                                         36
INCREMENTAL PLANNING



4. LIMITED TIME AND MONEY FOR DATA
   COLLECTION
5. SOCIETAL VALUES ARE AS IMPORTANT AS
   FACTS
6. OPEN, RAPIDLY CHANGING SYSTEM;
   UNFORESEEABLE EVENTS
7. PLANNING IS DISJOINTED, INCREMENTAL
   AND SERIAL (SERIAL = ONE EVENT
   AFTER ANOTHER WITH NO GIANT STEPS)

                                         37
ADVOCACY PLANNING

  CAME OUT OF 1960S, CONSIDER AS AN
  ADVERSARIAL APPROACH IN THE LEGAL
  PROFESSION

1. DEFENDING THE WEAK AGAINST THE
   STRONG
    WEAK MEANS: THE POOR; DISENFRANCHISED;
    ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSES
2.
2 SUCCESSFUL IN BLOCKING INSENSITIVE
   PLANNING
    ESPECIALLY ‘URBAN RENEWAL’
                URBAN RENEWAL
                                             38
ADVOCACY PLANNING



3. MAJOR TOOL: DEVELOPMENT OF ‘PLURAL
   PLANS
   PLANS’
    DIFFERENT PLANS FOR DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE
    COMMUNITY
4. CRITICIZED FOR BLOCKING EFFICIENT
   PLANNING
5. SOCIAL POLICY & ENVIRONMENTAL
   JUSTICE BECAME IMPORTANT PLANNING
   ISSUES
6. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
    IS THE ‘MAINSTREAMING’ OF ADVOCACY ISSUES
            MAINSTREAMING
                                                39
TRANSACTIVE PLANNING


   ALSO CALLED ‘POST RATIONAL PLANNING’

   A RESPONSE TO THE FAILURES OF
   ADVOCACY PLANNING

 BASED ON:
   1. SOCIAL LEARNING THEORY
        HOW DO SOCIETIES LEARN (AND CHANGE)
   2. INTERPERSONAL INTERACTION
        DIALOGUE AND MUTUAL LEARNING

                                              40
TRANSACTIVE PLANNING



PLANNERS JOB:
  1.
  1 FACILITATE SHARED UNDERSTANDING
     AMONG PEOPLE
  2.
  2 ENGAGE IN MUTUAL LEARNING WITH
     CLIENTS/PEOPLE
         BOTH REQUIRE ‘DIALOGUE’
                Q

MAJOR CRITICISMS:
    - VERY TIME CONSUMING AND DIFFICULT
    - VERY PERSONAL & SUBJECTIVE


                                          41
MUTUAL LEARNING PROCESS

PLANNER CONTRIBUTES quot;PROCESSquot;
KNOWLEDGE
    1. THEORY AND SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY
    2. LARGER SOCIETAL PERSPECTIVE & CONCERNS

  CLIENT CONTRIBUTES quot;PERSONALquot;
  KNOWLEDGE
    1. DIRECT PERSONAL EXPERIENCE
    2. KNOWLEDGE OF LOCAL CONDITIONS AND NEEDS

  BOTH ARE OF EQUAL VALUE AND
  IMPORTANCE
                                                42
KNOWLEDGE SHARED

PROCESS & PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE
BECOME FUSED THRU:

  1. PERSONAL AND VERBAL INTERACTION
     (DIALOGUE)
      PUBLIC GOOD IS ACHIEVED

  2. EFFORTS TO CREATE INTELLIGENT
     INSTITUTIONS
      INSTITUTIONS WHICH ARE SELF LEARNING /
                             SELF-LEARNING
      EDUCATING / ADAPTING


                                               43
COMPARISON OF APPROACHES
Rational Planning               Advocacy Planning          Transactive Planning

Audience
decision maker / power holder   a community group          society / quot;the people”

View held by client
goal oriented / rational        goal oriented / rational   experiential

View of self (planner)
rational analyst & technician   rational analyst           catalyst / inventor & change
                                                           agent
Methodology
science                         science & politics         dialogue & politics

Techniques
analytical                      analytical                 process / synthesis

Data
objective & processed           objective & processed      objective / processed &
                                                           subjective/personal
Goal
one best solution               solution perceived best    a working solution &
                                by client                  continuing process

                                                                                    44
COMPARISON OF APPROACHES


View of change process
controlled / stability            controlled / stability          guided / responsive to change

View of future
comprehensive / time-driven       partial / short term            evolutionary / long-term

Worldview
elitist / structural efficiency   benevolent / functional         participatory / structural &
                                  efficiency                      functional efficiency
Problem environment
isolated (closed system)          isolated (closed system)        open system

Implementation
not planner's problem             not planner's problem           part of solution process

Focus
th problem
the   bl                          the   bl
                                  th problem & potential actors
                                                 t ti l t         the
                                                                  th problem & potential actors
                                                                        bl       t ti l t



                                                                  (LEW, 1996)

                                                                                       45
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN

  A SPECIFIC SET OF QUANTITATIVE
  ECONOMIC TARGETS TO BE
  REACHED IN A GIVEN PERIOD OF
  TIME,
  TIME WITH A STATED STRATEGY
  FOR ACHIEVING THOSE TARGETS




                                   46
ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN

 A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN SET ITS
 TARGETS INCLUDING ALL ASPECTS OF
 THE NATIONAL ECONOMY
 A SECTORAL AND PARTIAL PLAN
 ELABORATING ONLY A SPECIFIC
 SECTOR, FOR EXAMPLE, AGRICULTURE,
 INDUSTRIAL OR TRADE SECTOR



                                 47
MODELS FOR PLANNING
1. AGGREGATE GROWTH MODELS:
   INVOLVING MACROECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF PLANNED
   OR REQUIRED CHANGES IN PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC
   VARIABLES
2. MULTISECTOR INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS:
   WHICH ASCERTAIN THE PRODUCTION, RESOURCES,
                        PRODUCTION RESOURCES
   EMPLOYMENT, AND FOREIGN-EXCHANGE
   IMPLICATIONS OF A GIVEN SET OF FINAL DEMAND
   TARGETS WITHIN INTERINDUSTRY PRODUCT FLOWS
3. DETAILED SELECTION OF SPECIFIC
   INVESTMENT WITHIN SECTOR:
   THROUGH THE TECHNIQUE OF PROJECT APPRAISAL
   AND SOCIAL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS

                              (TODARO, 2000)
                                                 48
PLANNING STAGING

 1. AGGREGATE
 2. SECTORAL
 3. PROJECT




                   49
THE PLAN

 1.   WARTIME PLANNING
 2.
 2    TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING
 3.   ANTICYCLICAL PLANNING
 4.   DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
      - NATIONAL
      - REGIONAL

                    (WATERSTON, 1982)




                                        50
DECISION MAKING PROCESS
      PLANNING                     PLANNING
         FROM                         FROM

    TECNOCRATIC                     POLITIC
      POINT OF VIEW
                                   POINT OF VIEW




DISTORTION            ACCORDANCE




                        PLAN

                                                   51
GOOD PLAN



*   ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT
*   POLITICALLY ACCEPTED
*   ADMINISTRATIVELY WORKABLE
*   IN ACCORDANCE WITH SOCIO
    CULTURAL AND ETHICS




                                52
THE FAILURE


AN EXAMINATION OF POSTWAR PLANNING
HISTORY REVEALS THAT THERE HAVE
BEEN MANY MORE FAILURES THAN
SUCCESSES IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF
DEVELOPMENT PLANS
                 (WATERSTON, 1989)




                                     53
THE CAUSES


  GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND PRACTICE
  PLANNING PROCESS FAILURE
  - INSUFFICIENT AND UNRELIABLE DATA
  -   UNANTICIPATED ECONOMIC TURMOIL
  -   INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES
  -   POLITICAL ASPECT
  -   NO IMPLEMENTATION MANUAL




                                       54
PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT

Decision making    Policies for                    Planning                    Budgets
                   Nat. Planningg                for programs

               (Seek to achieve)                  (Defines)                    (Finance)


Implementation    Outcomes                         Outputs                      Inputs

                               (effectiveness)
                               ( ff ti       )                  (efficiency)


Control indicators Impacts                       Production                     Costs
                                                 indicators



Monitoring        Evaluation                Value-for-money              Cost accounting
  tools                                          Audits                  & financial audits
LINKING POLICY, PLANNING AND BUDGETING
IN THE ANNUAL PLANNING AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
                       CYCLE
                                                   (1)
                                              REVIEW POLICY
                                        R i     h      i
                                        Review the previous planning and
                                                             l   i     d
                                             implementation period




                                                                                           (2)
         (6)                                                                   SET POLICY AND UNDERTAKE
  EVALUATE AND AUDIT                                                               PLANNING ACTIVITY
Policy activities, effectiveness and                                            Establish resource frame work, set out
feed the results into future plans                                                objectives, policies, strategies and
                                                                                         expenditure priorities




                                                                                           (3)
         (5)
                                                                                  MOBILIZE AND ALLOCATE
   MONITOR activities and
                                                                                       RESOURCES
  ACCOUNT for expenditures
                                                                                           Prepare Budget



                                                 (4)
                                       IMPLEMENTATION PLANNED
                                             ACTIVITIES
                                        Collect revenues, release funds,
                                         deploy personnel, undertake
                                                  personnel
                                                    activities

                                               Source : World Bank, “Public Expenditure Management Handbook”, 1998
BUDGET AND BUDGETING

  BUDGET IS AN ESTIMATION OF THE
  REVENUES AND EXPENSES OVER A SPECIFIED
  FUTURE PERIOD OF TIME

  THE PURPOSE OF BUDGETING: TO CONTROL
  OVER PUBLIC MONEY AND ACCOUNTABILITY
  TO PUBLIC AUTHORITY




                                         57
BUDGET’S ROLE

  BUDGETS DIRECT EVERYTHING A
  GOVERNMENT DOES THEIR PROCESSES
               DOES.
  ARBITRATE OVER THE ALLOCATION OF
  SCARCE RESOURCES AMONG THE
  COMPETING DEMANDS OF AGENCIES
  WHOSE BUSINESS IT IS TO SEE PUBLIC
  NEEDS FULFILLED


                            (XAVIER, 2001)



                                             58
BUDGET

   BUDGET IS A PLAN THAT SETS OUT:
1.
1 THE OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGIES OF THE
   GOVERNMENT IN A BUDGET YEAR,
2.
2 THE PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES THAT
   WOULD BE CARRIED OUT TO EXECUTE THE
   STRATEGIES TO ACHIEVE THE OVERALL
   OBJECTIVES,
3. THE RESPECTIVE OBJECTIVES OF THESE
   PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES THAT
   REFLECT THE DISAGGREGATION OF THE
   OVERALL OBJECTIVES OF GOVERNMENT
                                         59
BUDGET

4. THE RESOURCES ALLOCATED ACROSS THESE
   PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES,
5.
5 THE REVENUES PROJECTED TO BE COLLECTED TO
   FINANCE THE EXPENDITURE IN CARRYING OUT
   THE PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES
                        ACTIVITIES,
6. PERFORMANCE TARGETS – IN TERM OF THE
   DELIVERY OF SERVICES IN THE RIGHT QUANTITY,
   QUALITY AND IN A TIMELY AND COST-EFFECTIVE
   FASHION – THAT WOULD NEED TO BE ACHIEVED
   TO MEETING THE SUB-OBJECTIVES AND, THEREBY,
   THE OVERALL OBJECTIVES OF THE GOVERNMENT
                                  (XAVIER,
                                  (XAVIER 2001)

                                                  60
BUDGETING PRINCIPLES

    TRANSPARENCY AND
    ACCOUNTABILITY
    COMPREHENSIVENESS OF BUDGET
    PREDICTABILITY OF RESOURCES &
    POLICIES
    FLEXIBILITY
    CONTESTABILITY
    EXISTENCE AND SHARING OF
    INFORMATION
                                    61
BUDGETING THEORIES
  PPBS
    PLANNING, PROGRAMMING
    PLANNING PROGRAMMING, AND
    BUDGETING SYSTEMS

     DEVELOPED IN 1960s BY US DEPT OF
     DEFENSE
     BUDGETING BASED ON LONG-TERM
     PLANNING NEEDS



                                        62
BUDGETING THEORIES

MBO
 MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVE

   DETERMINING OBJECTIVES BASED
   ON OVERALL GOALS
   CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN A
   MANAGER AND HIS/HER
   SUBORDINATES



                                  63
BUDGETING THEORIES

ZBB
  ZERO BASED BUDGETING

   LARGER BUDGET BROKEN INTO
   SMALLER “DECISION PACKAGES”
   MANAGERS OF EACH DECISION
   PACKAGE JUSTIFIES ENTIRE BUDGET
   FROM SCRATCH EACH YEAR (ZERO-
                           (ZERO
   BASE)


                                     64
BUDGETING THEORIES

BUDGETING FOR PERFORMANCE

LINKING:

  INPUTS,
  OUTPUTS, AND
  OUTCOMES



                                 65
BUDGETING THEORIES
BUDGETING FOR PERFORMANCE


INPUT
  CASH/ACCRUAL

OUTPUT
  PERFORMANCE DATA/INDICATORS/STANDARDS
  AUTHORITY
  ACCOUNTABILITY

OUTCOME
    CLEAR OBJECTIVES
    INDICATORS
    EVALUATION
                                            66
BUDGETING THEORIES

BUDGETING FOR PERFORMANCE




CLASSIFICATION
    FUNCTIONAL
    PROGRAM
    ORGANIZATIONAL

MULTI-YEAR




                                            67
BUDGETING THEORIES

MTEF
MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK

 FISCAL TARGETS (WHAT IS AFFORDABLE)
 FORWARD ESTIMATES OF EXISTING POLICY
 INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS FOR MAKING THE
 TRADE-OFFS
 A FOCUS ON PERFORMANCE
 ENHANCED PREDICTABILITY


                                           68
STAGES OF A MTEF
                                           Top-Down
                                           T   D
      Stage 1                                        Stage 4         Stage 5          Stage 7

 Macroeconomic                                       Detailed         Approval       Review of
   f
   framework  k                                          dit
                                                  expenditure              f
                                                                          of          ti
                                                                                    estimates i
                                                                                           t in
  availability of                                framework &         ceilings by      MOF and
    resources                                   sector/ministry       Cabinet       presentation
                                                ceiling for 3 yrs                    to Cabinet
                                                                                         and
                                                                                     Parliament


                Stage 2                                   Stage 3           Stage 6

  Step 1
  St                              Step 3
Sector review                      Costing            Hearings to     Preparation of 3-year
 of ministry                    (recurrent &           agree on           estimates by
 objectives,                      capital) of         objectives &      ministries within
 outputs &
     p                           programs/              priority
                                                        p      y        Cabinet approved
                                                                                   pp
  activities
     i ii                      sub-programs            programs              ceilings
                                                                               ili
                                 for 3 years
           Step 2

            Agreement on
           sectoral/ministry
           programs & sub-
               programs


                                           Bottom-up
                                                                      (ADAPTED FROM GERVAIS, 1999)
BUDGET CYCLE AND FISCAL
POLICY
BUDGET CYCLE
  THE BUDGET CYCLE IS MADE UP OF THE
  MAJOR EVENTS OR STAGES IN MAKING
  DECISIONS ABOUT THE BUDGET, AND
                       BUDGET
  IMPLEMENTING AND ASSESSING THOSE
  DECISIONS
  DECISIONS.

  THE SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
  BUDGET CYCLE DIFFER FROM COUNTRY TO
  COUNTRY. NONETHELESS, IN MOST
                        ,
  COUNTRIES, THE BUDGET CYCLE IS LIKELY
  TO HAVE FOUR STAGES
                                       71
BUDGET CYCLE

STAGE 1

BUDGET FORMULATION
THE BUDGET PLAN IS PUT TOGETHER BY
THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT

STAGE 2

BUDGET ENACTMENT
THE BUDGET PLAN MAY BE DEBATED
                       DEBATED,
ALTERED, AND APPROVED BY THE
LEGISLATIVE BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT
                                      72
BUDGET CYCLE

STAGE 3

BUDGET EXECUTION
THE POLICIES OF THE BUDGET ARE
CARRIED OUT BY THE GOVERNMENT

STAGE 4

BUDGET AUDITING AND ASSESSMENT
THE ACTUAL EXPENDITURES OF THE
BUDGET ARE ACCOUNTED FOR AND
ASSESSED FOR EFFECTIVENESS
                                       73
PUBLIC FINANCE


    GOVERNMENTAL FINANCES TODAY
    ARE “IN THE PUBLIC EYE” AS NEVER
    BEFORE

             (ROSENBLOOM AND KRAVCHUCK, 2005)




                                                74
FISCAL FUNCTIONS


  THE MAJOR FUNCTION OF FISCAL
  FUNCTIONS ARE:

  1.   ALLOCATION
  2.   DISTRIBUTION
  3.   STABILIZATION


                                 75
ALLOCATION FUNCTION
 THE PROVISION FOR SOCIAL GOODS, OR
 THE PROCESS BY WHICH TOTAL
 RESOURCE USE IS DIVIDED BETWEEN
 PRIVATE AND SOCIAL GOODS AND BY
 WHICH THE MIX OF SOCIAL GOODS IS
 CHOSEN

 THIS PROVISION MAY BE TERMED THE
 ALLOCATION OF BUDGET POLICY
                          (MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE 1989)
                                        MUSGRAVE,


                                                  76
DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION

 ADJUSTMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF
 INCOME AND WEALTH TO ENSURE
 CONFORMANCE WITH WHAT SOCIETY
 CONSIDERS A “FAIR” OR “JUST” STATE
 OF DISTRIBUTION, HERE REFERRED TO
 AS THE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION



                    (MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE, 1989)


                                                    77
STABILIZATION FUNCTION

 THE USE OF BUDGET POLICY AS A
 MEANS OF MAINTAINING HIGH
 EMPLOYMENT, A REASONABLE DEGREE
 OF PRICE LEVEL STABILITY, AND AN
 APPROPRIATE RATE OF ECONOMIC
 GROWTH, WITH ALLOWANCES FOR
 EFFECTS ON TRADE AND ON THE
 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS. WE REFER TO
 ALL THESE OBJECTIVES AS THE
 STABILIZATION FUNCTION
                    (MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE, 1989)


                                                    78
INSTRUMENTS OF
STABILIZATION FUNCTION

 1. MONETARY INSTRUMENTS
   -   CONTROL OVER MONEY
   -   INTEREST RATE
   -   CREDIT CONDITIONS
 2. FISCAL INSTRUMENTS
   -   GOVERNMENT SPENDING
   -   THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF TAXES



                                      79
FISCAL-MONETARY MIX POLICY

TO INFLUENCE MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITY

1. TIGHT-MONETARY AND LOOSE-FISCAL
   POLICY WILL TEND TO ENCOURAGE
   CONSUMPTION AND RETARD INVESTMENT

2. EASY-MONETARY AND TIGH-FISCAL POLICY
   WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE CONSUMPTION
   AND ACCELERATE INVESTMENT

                                          80
PUBLIC SECTOR IN ECONOMY

                                           HOUSEHOLDS
                INCOME

                                                                                       SAVING



                               INCOME

   TAXES                                                                           CAPITAL MARKET
                      FACTOR                                               SPEND
                      MARKET




                                                              PRODUCT                                 PUBLIC SERVICE
                                                               MARKET                                   AND GOODS
                                              FIRMS
           TRANSFER

                                                                                          BORROWING

                                                                        PURCHASE




                                        GOVERNMENT BUDGET




                                                  (ADAPTED FROM MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE, 1989)


                                                                                                                   81
BUDGET DECISION MAKING
PLAYING THE BUDGET GAME

 SOMETIMES BUDGETING TAKES ON
 THE AURA OF A GAME, WITH THE
               GAME
 VARIOUS AGENCY PLAYERS TRYING
 TO INCREASE THEIR SHARES AND
 ELECTED OFFICIALS TRYING, AT
 LEAST OSTENSIBLY, TO KEEP TAXES
 DOWN AND PROMOTE
 ADMINISTRATIVE ECONOMY

               (ROSENBLOOM AND KRAVCHUCK, 2005)



                                                  83
A RATIONAL COMPREHENSIVE
MODEL OF DECISION MAKING

1. VALUES OR OBJECTIVES ARE DETERMINED
   AND CLARIFIED SEPARATELY, USUALLY
   BEFORE CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE
   POLICIES
2. POLICY FORMATION IS APPROACHED
   THROUGH ENDS-MEANS ANALYSIS, WITH
                        ANALYSIS
   AGREED-UPON ENDS GENERATING A
   SEARCH FOR WAYS OF ATTAINING THEM



                                         84
A RATIONAL COMPREHENSIVE MODEL OF DECISION MAKING




4. A “GOOD” POLICY IS, THEREFORE, ONE
      GOOD
   THAT PROVIDES THE MOST APPROPRIATE
   MEANS TO SOME DESIRED END
5. EVERY IMPORTANT RELEVANT FACTOR IS
   TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT
6.
6 THEORY OFTEN IS HEAVILY RELIED UPON

                                     (MILLER,
                                     (MILLER 1991)




                                                     85
OBSTACLE TO DECISIONS


1.
1 LACK OF GOAL CLARITY
2. CONFUSION OF THE PUBLIC INTEREST
   WITH THAT OF A CUSTOMER CLIENTELE
                  CUSTOMER,
   GROUP, OR CONSTITUENCY
3. RIGID CONSERVATISM (IN THE SENSE OF
   STRICT ADHERENCE TO RULES,
   PROCEDURES, AND PAST PRACTICES



                                         86
OBSTACLE TO DECISIONS


4. THE TENDENCY TO OVERSIMPLIFY
   REALITY
5. “OVERQUANTIFICATION” AND TENDENCY
   TO DEEMPHASIZE OR IGNORE
   QUALITATIVE FACTORS
6. RELUCTANCE TO ENGAGE IN POLICY
   AND PROGRAM EVALUATION


              (ROSENBLOOM AND KRAVCHUCK, 2005)



                                                 87
BUDGET DECISION MAKING
PROCESS
       BUDGET                       BUDGET
         FROM                         FROM

    TECNOCRATIC                     POLITIC
      POINT OF VIEW
                                   POINT OF VIEW




DISTORTION            ACCORDANCE




                      BUDGET

                                                   88
INDONESIA NATIONAL BUDGET
SCHEME (SINCE 2005)
 20 YEARLY    5 YEARLY        YEARLY




             PRESIDENT’S
               VISION




  LTDP          MTDP          GWP


             STRA-PLAN
              OF DEPT       DEPT AP

                            DEPT ABP


                           STATE BUDGET
                                          89
THANK YOU




        90

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PLANNING AND BUDGETING

  • 1. THE THEORY OF PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION Linkage Master Programmes g g Double Degree FIA-UNIBRAW and Japanese Universities Universitas Brawijaya Lecturer : Prof. Dr. Ir. Ginandjar Kartasasmita jgkar@cbn.net.id www.ginandjar.com g j Assistant Professor : Dr.Ir. Deddy S. Bratakusumah, BE, MURP, M.Sc. deddys@bappenas.go.id
  • 3. DEVELOPMENT THEORIES 1. THE LINEAR-STAGES THEORY 2. STRUCTURAL-CHANE 2 STRUCTURAL CHANE MODELS 3. THE INTERNATIONAL-DEPENDENCE REVOLUTION 4. THE NEOCLASSICAL COUNTERREVOLUTION 5. THE NEW GROWTH THEORY (TODARO, (TODARO 2000) 3
  • 4. THE LINEAR-STAGES THEORY LINEAR STAGES 1. ROSTOW’S STAGES OF GROWTH 1. 1 THE TRADITIONAL SOCIETY 2. THE PRE-CONDITION FOR TAKE OFF INTO SELF- SUS SUSTAINING GROWTH GG O 3. THE TAKE OFF 4. THE DRIVE TO MATURITY 5. THE AGE OF HIGH MASS CONSUMPTION 2. THE HARROD-DOMAR GROWTH MODEL Y/Y = s/k 4
  • 5. STRUCTURAL-CHANGE MODELS 1. THE LEWIS THEORY OF DEVELOPMENT LEWIS TWO SECTOR MODEL (TRADITIONAL AND MODERN) 2. STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND PATTERNS OF DEVELOPMENT SO O AGRICULTURE – INDUSTRY – CONSTRUCTION & SERVICES 5
  • 6. THE INTERNATIONAL- DEPENDENCE REVOLUTION 1. THE NEOCOLONIAL DEPENDENCE MODEL UNDERDEVELOPMENT IS SEEN AS AN EXTERNALLY INDUCED PHENOMENON 2. 2 THE FALSE-PARADIGM MODEL FALSE PARADIGM UNDERDEVELOPMENT IS CAUSED BY FAULTY AND INAPPROPRIATE ADVICE FROM INTERNATIONAL “EXPERT” 3. THE DUALISTIC-DEVELOPMENT THESIS THE EXISTENCE AND PERSISTENCE OF INCREASING DIVERGENCES BETWEEN RICH AND POOR NATIONS AND RICH AND POOR PEOPLES ON VARIOUS LEVEL 6
  • 7. THE NEOCLASSICAL COUNTERREVOLUTION 1. FREE MARKETS, PUBLIC CHOICE, & MARKET FRIENDLY APPROACHES PRIVATIZATIONS, GOVERNMENTS CAN DO NOTHING RIGHT, “NONSELECTIVE” INTERVENTIONS , 2. TRADITIONAL NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH THEORY OUTPUT GROWTH RESULTS FROM ONE OR MORE OF THREE FACTORS: INCREASES IN LABOR QUANTITY AND QUALITY, INCREASES IN CAPITAL, AND QUALITY CAPITAL IMPROVEMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY Y = AeµtKαL1-α 7
  • 8. THE NEW GROWTH THEORY ENDOGENOUS GROWTH SEEK TO EXPLAIN THE FACTORS THAT DETERMINE THE SIZE OF µ (THE RATE OF GROWTH OF GDP), THAT IS LEFT GDP) UNEXPLAINED AND EXOGENOUSLY DETERMINED IN THE SOLOW NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH EQUATION Y = AeµtKαL1-α Y = AeµtK 8
  • 9. DEVELOPMENT AS TRANSFORMATION OF SOCIETY A MOVEMENMT FROM TRADITIONAL RELATIONS, TRADITIONAL WAYS OF THINKING, TRADITIONAL WAYS OF , DEALING WITH HEALTH AND EDUCATION, TRADITIONAL METHODS OF PRODUCTION TO MORE “MODERN” WAYS (STIGLITZ,1998) 9
  • 10. THE SUCCESSFUL TRANSFORMATION OF SOCIETY 1. RAISE THE GDP PER CAPITA 2. RAISE STANDARD OF HEALTH AND LITERACY 3. REDUCE POVERTY 4. 4 SUSTAINING THE ENVIRONMENT (STIGLITZ,1998) 10
  • 11. THE STRATEGY INCLUDING 1. PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT 2. PUBLIC SECTOR DEVELOPMENT 3. 3 COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT 4. FAMILY DEVELOPMENT 5. INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPMENT (STIGLITZ,1998) 11
  • 12. THE PRIORITY 1. EDUCATION 2. INFRASTRUCTURE 3. 3 HEALTH 4. KNOWLEDGE 5. CAPACITY BUILDING (STIGLITZ,1998) 12
  • 13. THE UN MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS 1. ERADICATE EXTREME POVERTY AND HUNGER 2. ACHIEVE UNIVERSAL PRIMARY EDUCATION 3. PROMOTE GENDER EQUALITY AND EMPOWER WOMAN 4 4. REDUCE CHILD MORTALITY 5. IMPROVE MATERNAL HEALTH 6. COMBAT HIV/AIDS, MALARIA AND OTHER DISEASES 7. ENSURE ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 8. 8 DEVELOP A GLOBAL PARTNERSHIP FOR DEVELOPMENT 13
  • 14. SOME DEFINITIONS OF PLANNING PLANNING IS THE APPLICATION OF SCIENTIFIC METHODS TO POLICY MAKING (FALUDI, 1983) PLANNING IS A PROCESS FOR DETERMINING APPROPRIATE FUTURE ACTION THROUGH A SEQUENCE OF CHOICES ( (DAVIDOFF AND REINER, 1983) O , 983) 14
  • 15. PLANNING A DELIBERATE AND CONCIOUS ATTEMPT TO FORMULATE DECISIONS FROM SOME ALTERNATIVES TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS THE ELEMENTS OF PLANNING: 1. GOALS 2. PRIORITY AND TARGETS 3. TIME FRAME 4. CONSTRAINTS 5. CAPITAL AND RESOURCES, AND ITS ALLOCATIONS 6. 6 IMPLEMENTATION POLICIES AND STRATEGIES 7. IMPLEMENTING AGENCIES AND HUMAN RESOURCES 8. MONITORING, EVALUATION AND CONTROL MECHANISM , 15
  • 16. PLANNING CRITERIA 1. COMPREHENSIVE AND INDICATIVE 2. CONTROL AND DIRECTING GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN ORDER TO STIMULATE THE PRIVATE INVESTMENT 3. STIMULATE MARKET MECHANISM 4. PEOPLE PARTICIPATION PROCESS 5. AFFIRMATIVE ACTION TO WHOM CAN’T SUIT THE MARKET MECHANISM 16
  • 17. THE SHIFT OF DEVELOPMNET PLANNING IN USA AND UK THE DEVELOPMENT PLANNING BEEN ABANDONED ABANDONED, THE NEW FOCUS ON: 1. DEREGULATION 2. PRIVATISATION 3. 3 URBAN ECONOMIC ZONE 17
  • 18. OTHER REASON DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND PUBLIC REGULATION, NO MORE APPROPRIATE, BECAUSE IT HINDERS CREATIVITY,, PRIVATE INITIATIVE, BURDEN TO INOVATION, AND CREATE A HIGH COST ECONOMY CLASSICAL LIBERAL 18
  • 19. THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT THROUGH PLANNING IRVING SVERDLOW (1963): OPERATION (PROVIDING PUBLIC GOODS) DIRECT CONTROL (TARIFF) INDIRECT CONTROL (STANDARDIZATION) DIRECT INFLUENCE (INCENTIVE) INDIRECT INFLUENCE (EXPORT MARKET INFORMATION) 19
  • 20. WHY WE DO PLANNING? DECREASING UNCERTAINTY INTEGRATING SOME RATIONAL METHODS AND TECHNOLOGIES INTO PROBLEM SOLVING PROCESS AND DECISION MAKING PROCESS 20
  • 21. WHY WE DO PLANNING ? PROVIDING THE CHANCE ANG BLUE PRINT TO CONTROL AND MONITOR THE PUBLIC EFFORTS FROM TIME TO TIME INCREASING PARTICIPATION FROM THE PEOPLE ON DECISION MAKING AT LEAST MAKING, WIDENING THE HORIZON OF THE PUBLIC EXPONENT 21
  • 22. OTHER REASONS IF WE COULD FIRST KNOW WHERE WE ARE, AND WHITHER WE ARE TENDING, WE COULD BETTER JUDGE WHAT TO DO AND HOW TO DO, DO IT (ABRAHAM LINCOLN) THE ROLE OF THE STATE IN THE ECONOMIC LIFE OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES NEEDS TO BE REAPPRAISED…. NOT BY STRONG IDEOLOGICAL OVERTURES, BUT BY PRAGMATIC CONSIDERATIONS OF FEASIBLE ALTERNATIVES (M. SINGH) 22
  • 23. OTHER REASONS MARKET FAILURE RESOURCE MOBILIZATION AND ALLOCATION ATTITUDINAL OR PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT FOREIGN AID ? (TODARO, 2000) 23
  • 24. THE ROLE OF PLANNERS WHAT IS OR SHOULD BE THE TOPIC OR FOCUS OF PLANNING? WHO DOES THE PLANNER WORK FOR? WHAT IS THE GOAL OF PLANNING? (IS EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF RESOURCES POSSIBLE?) HOW DO WE ACHIEVE OUR GOALS? (IS RATIONAL DECISION MAKING POSSIBLE?) WHAT IS PRACTICAL EXPECTATIONS? (LEW, 1996) 24
  • 25. PLANNING APPROACH (1) POLITICAL (2) TECNOCRATIC (3) PARTICIPATIVE (4) TOP-DOWN (5) BOTTOM-UP 25
  • 26. THE PLANNING APPROACH 1. RATIONAL PLANNING SYNOPTIC PLANNING, COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING BASIS FOR MOST PUBLIC PLANNING 2. INCREMENTAL PLANNING 3. ADVOCACY PLANNING 4. TRANSACTIVE PLANNING 26
  • 27. RATIONAL PLANNING THE STEPS: 1. IDENTIFY A PROBLEM 2. IDENTIFY A GOAL 3. COLLECT BACKGROUND DATA 4. IDENTIFY A MEANS OF ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE PLAN SCENARIOS 5. IDENTIFY ALTERNATIVE PLAN SCENARIOS CONSISTING OF POLICIES AND GUIDELINES TO ACHIEVE THE GOAL 27
  • 28. RATIONAL PLANNING 6. ASSESS ALTERNATIVE PLAN SCENARIOS 7. SELECT THE PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE 8. IMPLEMENT THE PLAN 9. MONITOR, EVALUATE AND REVISE THE IMPLEMENTATION 10. IDENTIFY NEW PROBLEMS AND BEGIN THE PROCESS AGAIN 28
  • 29. RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE TYPICALLY MORE COMPLEX THAN THE STEPS A. COMPLETE AGENCY PRE-PLANNING ACTIVITIES 1. 1 CLARIFY AGENCY MISSION, ROLE, MISSION ROLE RESPONSIBILITIES 2. DELINEATE INTENDED PURPOSE AND USE OF THE PLAN 3. DETERMINE PLAN FRAMEWORK AND FORMAT 29
  • 30. RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE B. ESTABLISH GOALS, GUIDELINES, AND STANDARDS 4. DEVELOP A PLANNING PROCESS TO DO THIS: - METHODOLOGIES DATA REQUIREMENTS - PARTICIPANTS ORIENTATION/EDUCATION - COORDINATION ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE - EVALUATION PROCEDURE 5. 5 DEVELOP A WORK PROGRAM TO DO THIS 6. ESTABLISH GOALS 7. ESTABLISH GUIDELINES AND STANDARDS 30
  • 31. RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE C. IDENTIFY NEEDS & PRIORITIES, ESTABLISH OBJECTIVES, AND DEVELOP PLAN IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY 8. 8 DEVELOP THE PLANNING PROCESS 9. DEVELOP THE WORK PROGRAM AND TIME SCHEDULE 10. IDENTIFY NEEDS 11. DETERMINE PRIORITIES 12. ESTABLISH OBJECTIVES 13. DEVELOP THE PLAN IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY 31
  • 32. RATIONAL PLANNING PRACTICE D. PUBLISH AND IMPLEMENT THE PLAN E. EVALUATE RESULTS & REVIEW, REVISE AND UPDATE THE PLAN 32
  • 33. CRITICS ON RATIONAL PLANNING RATIONAL PLANNING IS OFTEN CRITICIZED BUT IT STILL REMAINS THE MOST COMMON APPROACH TO PLANNING BECAUSE IT IS: RATIONAL AND THEREFORE EASIER TO JUSTIFY (LEW, 1996) 33
  • 34. ASSUMPTIONS 1. ASSUMES THAT PEOPLE BEHAVE RATIONALLY - THAT RATIONALITY IS A PART OF EVERYDAY LIFE - THAT PEOPLE AND EVENTS ARE PREDICTABILITY 2. ASSUMES UNLIMITED PROBLEM SOLVING CAPABILITIES AND PERFECT INFORMATION - COST OF INFORMATION COLLECTION IS AFFORDABLE - ABILITY TO IDENTIFY ALL ALTERNATIVES (‘SYNOPTIC’) 34
  • 35. ASSUMPTIONS 3. ASSUMES THAT ONLY FACTS EXIST - NO VALUES (SUBJECTIVE BELIEF SYSTEMS) ( ) - ALL VARIABLES EXIST WITHIN AN INTERCONNECTED AND CLOSED SYSTEM (NO UNFORESEEABLE VARIABLES) 4. ASSUMES A RATIONAL-DEDUCTIVE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS - IF ‘A’ HAPPENS, THE ‘B’ WILL FOLLOW - NO NEED FOR POLITICAL STRATEGIES - NOT SUITED FOR CRISIS OR UNFORESEEN EVENTS 35
  • 36. INCREMENTAL PLANNING AN ALTERNATIVE THEORY THAT ACCEPTS MOST OBVIOUS SHORTCOMINGS OF RATIONAL PLANNING DEVELOPED FROM THE PEACE CORPS IN THE 1960S 1. LIMITED TIME PERIODS/HORIZONS 2. POLITICAL DECISION MAKING 3. LIMITED AND IMPERFECT INFORMATION 36
  • 37. INCREMENTAL PLANNING 4. LIMITED TIME AND MONEY FOR DATA COLLECTION 5. SOCIETAL VALUES ARE AS IMPORTANT AS FACTS 6. OPEN, RAPIDLY CHANGING SYSTEM; UNFORESEEABLE EVENTS 7. PLANNING IS DISJOINTED, INCREMENTAL AND SERIAL (SERIAL = ONE EVENT AFTER ANOTHER WITH NO GIANT STEPS) 37
  • 38. ADVOCACY PLANNING CAME OUT OF 1960S, CONSIDER AS AN ADVERSARIAL APPROACH IN THE LEGAL PROFESSION 1. DEFENDING THE WEAK AGAINST THE STRONG WEAK MEANS: THE POOR; DISENFRANCHISED; ENVIRONMENTAL CAUSES 2. 2 SUCCESSFUL IN BLOCKING INSENSITIVE PLANNING ESPECIALLY ‘URBAN RENEWAL’ URBAN RENEWAL 38
  • 39. ADVOCACY PLANNING 3. MAJOR TOOL: DEVELOPMENT OF ‘PLURAL PLANS PLANS’ DIFFERENT PLANS FOR DIFFERENT SECTORS OF THE COMMUNITY 4. CRITICIZED FOR BLOCKING EFFICIENT PLANNING 5. SOCIAL POLICY & ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE BECAME IMPORTANT PLANNING ISSUES 6. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IS THE ‘MAINSTREAMING’ OF ADVOCACY ISSUES MAINSTREAMING 39
  • 40. TRANSACTIVE PLANNING ALSO CALLED ‘POST RATIONAL PLANNING’ A RESPONSE TO THE FAILURES OF ADVOCACY PLANNING BASED ON: 1. SOCIAL LEARNING THEORY HOW DO SOCIETIES LEARN (AND CHANGE) 2. INTERPERSONAL INTERACTION DIALOGUE AND MUTUAL LEARNING 40
  • 41. TRANSACTIVE PLANNING PLANNERS JOB: 1. 1 FACILITATE SHARED UNDERSTANDING AMONG PEOPLE 2. 2 ENGAGE IN MUTUAL LEARNING WITH CLIENTS/PEOPLE BOTH REQUIRE ‘DIALOGUE’ Q MAJOR CRITICISMS: - VERY TIME CONSUMING AND DIFFICULT - VERY PERSONAL & SUBJECTIVE 41
  • 42. MUTUAL LEARNING PROCESS PLANNER CONTRIBUTES quot;PROCESSquot; KNOWLEDGE 1. THEORY AND SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY 2. LARGER SOCIETAL PERSPECTIVE & CONCERNS CLIENT CONTRIBUTES quot;PERSONALquot; KNOWLEDGE 1. DIRECT PERSONAL EXPERIENCE 2. KNOWLEDGE OF LOCAL CONDITIONS AND NEEDS BOTH ARE OF EQUAL VALUE AND IMPORTANCE 42
  • 43. KNOWLEDGE SHARED PROCESS & PERSONAL KNOWLEDGE BECOME FUSED THRU: 1. PERSONAL AND VERBAL INTERACTION (DIALOGUE) PUBLIC GOOD IS ACHIEVED 2. EFFORTS TO CREATE INTELLIGENT INSTITUTIONS INSTITUTIONS WHICH ARE SELF LEARNING / SELF-LEARNING EDUCATING / ADAPTING 43
  • 44. COMPARISON OF APPROACHES Rational Planning Advocacy Planning Transactive Planning Audience decision maker / power holder a community group society / quot;the people” View held by client goal oriented / rational goal oriented / rational experiential View of self (planner) rational analyst & technician rational analyst catalyst / inventor & change agent Methodology science science & politics dialogue & politics Techniques analytical analytical process / synthesis Data objective & processed objective & processed objective / processed & subjective/personal Goal one best solution solution perceived best a working solution & by client continuing process 44
  • 45. COMPARISON OF APPROACHES View of change process controlled / stability controlled / stability guided / responsive to change View of future comprehensive / time-driven partial / short term evolutionary / long-term Worldview elitist / structural efficiency benevolent / functional participatory / structural & efficiency functional efficiency Problem environment isolated (closed system) isolated (closed system) open system Implementation not planner's problem not planner's problem part of solution process Focus th problem the bl the bl th problem & potential actors t ti l t the th problem & potential actors bl t ti l t (LEW, 1996) 45
  • 46. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN A SPECIFIC SET OF QUANTITATIVE ECONOMIC TARGETS TO BE REACHED IN A GIVEN PERIOD OF TIME, TIME WITH A STATED STRATEGY FOR ACHIEVING THOSE TARGETS 46
  • 47. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PLAN A COMPREHENSIVE PLAN SET ITS TARGETS INCLUDING ALL ASPECTS OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY A SECTORAL AND PARTIAL PLAN ELABORATING ONLY A SPECIFIC SECTOR, FOR EXAMPLE, AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRIAL OR TRADE SECTOR 47
  • 48. MODELS FOR PLANNING 1. AGGREGATE GROWTH MODELS: INVOLVING MACROECONOMIC ESTIMATES OF PLANNED OR REQUIRED CHANGES IN PRINCIPAL ECONOMIC VARIABLES 2. MULTISECTOR INPUT-OUTPUT MODELS: WHICH ASCERTAIN THE PRODUCTION, RESOURCES, PRODUCTION RESOURCES EMPLOYMENT, AND FOREIGN-EXCHANGE IMPLICATIONS OF A GIVEN SET OF FINAL DEMAND TARGETS WITHIN INTERINDUSTRY PRODUCT FLOWS 3. DETAILED SELECTION OF SPECIFIC INVESTMENT WITHIN SECTOR: THROUGH THE TECHNIQUE OF PROJECT APPRAISAL AND SOCIAL COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS (TODARO, 2000) 48
  • 49. PLANNING STAGING 1. AGGREGATE 2. SECTORAL 3. PROJECT 49
  • 50. THE PLAN 1. WARTIME PLANNING 2. 2 TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING 3. ANTICYCLICAL PLANNING 4. DEVELOPMENT PLANNING - NATIONAL - REGIONAL (WATERSTON, 1982) 50
  • 51. DECISION MAKING PROCESS PLANNING PLANNING FROM FROM TECNOCRATIC POLITIC POINT OF VIEW POINT OF VIEW DISTORTION ACCORDANCE PLAN 51
  • 52. GOOD PLAN * ECONOMICALLY EFFICIENT * POLITICALLY ACCEPTED * ADMINISTRATIVELY WORKABLE * IN ACCORDANCE WITH SOCIO CULTURAL AND ETHICS 52
  • 53. THE FAILURE AN EXAMINATION OF POSTWAR PLANNING HISTORY REVEALS THAT THERE HAVE BEEN MANY MORE FAILURES THAN SUCCESSES IN THE IMPLEMENTATION OF DEVELOPMENT PLANS (WATERSTON, 1989) 53
  • 54. THE CAUSES GAP BETWEEN THEORY AND PRACTICE PLANNING PROCESS FAILURE - INSUFFICIENT AND UNRELIABLE DATA - UNANTICIPATED ECONOMIC TURMOIL - INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESSES - POLITICAL ASPECT - NO IMPLEMENTATION MANUAL 54
  • 55. PUBLIC SECTOR MANAGEMENT Decision making Policies for Planning Budgets Nat. Planningg for programs (Seek to achieve) (Defines) (Finance) Implementation Outcomes Outputs Inputs (effectiveness) ( ff ti ) (efficiency) Control indicators Impacts Production Costs indicators Monitoring Evaluation Value-for-money Cost accounting tools Audits & financial audits
  • 56. LINKING POLICY, PLANNING AND BUDGETING IN THE ANNUAL PLANNING AND RESOURCE MANAGEMENT CYCLE (1) REVIEW POLICY R i h i Review the previous planning and l i d implementation period (2) (6) SET POLICY AND UNDERTAKE EVALUATE AND AUDIT PLANNING ACTIVITY Policy activities, effectiveness and Establish resource frame work, set out feed the results into future plans objectives, policies, strategies and expenditure priorities (3) (5) MOBILIZE AND ALLOCATE MONITOR activities and RESOURCES ACCOUNT for expenditures Prepare Budget (4) IMPLEMENTATION PLANNED ACTIVITIES Collect revenues, release funds, deploy personnel, undertake personnel activities Source : World Bank, “Public Expenditure Management Handbook”, 1998
  • 57. BUDGET AND BUDGETING BUDGET IS AN ESTIMATION OF THE REVENUES AND EXPENSES OVER A SPECIFIED FUTURE PERIOD OF TIME THE PURPOSE OF BUDGETING: TO CONTROL OVER PUBLIC MONEY AND ACCOUNTABILITY TO PUBLIC AUTHORITY 57
  • 58. BUDGET’S ROLE BUDGETS DIRECT EVERYTHING A GOVERNMENT DOES THEIR PROCESSES DOES. ARBITRATE OVER THE ALLOCATION OF SCARCE RESOURCES AMONG THE COMPETING DEMANDS OF AGENCIES WHOSE BUSINESS IT IS TO SEE PUBLIC NEEDS FULFILLED (XAVIER, 2001) 58
  • 59. BUDGET BUDGET IS A PLAN THAT SETS OUT: 1. 1 THE OBJECTIVES AND STRATEGIES OF THE GOVERNMENT IN A BUDGET YEAR, 2. 2 THE PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES THAT WOULD BE CARRIED OUT TO EXECUTE THE STRATEGIES TO ACHIEVE THE OVERALL OBJECTIVES, 3. THE RESPECTIVE OBJECTIVES OF THESE PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES THAT REFLECT THE DISAGGREGATION OF THE OVERALL OBJECTIVES OF GOVERNMENT 59
  • 60. BUDGET 4. THE RESOURCES ALLOCATED ACROSS THESE PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES, 5. 5 THE REVENUES PROJECTED TO BE COLLECTED TO FINANCE THE EXPENDITURE IN CARRYING OUT THE PROGRAMMES AND ACTIVITIES ACTIVITIES, 6. PERFORMANCE TARGETS – IN TERM OF THE DELIVERY OF SERVICES IN THE RIGHT QUANTITY, QUALITY AND IN A TIMELY AND COST-EFFECTIVE FASHION – THAT WOULD NEED TO BE ACHIEVED TO MEETING THE SUB-OBJECTIVES AND, THEREBY, THE OVERALL OBJECTIVES OF THE GOVERNMENT (XAVIER, (XAVIER 2001) 60
  • 61. BUDGETING PRINCIPLES TRANSPARENCY AND ACCOUNTABILITY COMPREHENSIVENESS OF BUDGET PREDICTABILITY OF RESOURCES & POLICIES FLEXIBILITY CONTESTABILITY EXISTENCE AND SHARING OF INFORMATION 61
  • 62. BUDGETING THEORIES PPBS PLANNING, PROGRAMMING PLANNING PROGRAMMING, AND BUDGETING SYSTEMS DEVELOPED IN 1960s BY US DEPT OF DEFENSE BUDGETING BASED ON LONG-TERM PLANNING NEEDS 62
  • 63. BUDGETING THEORIES MBO MANAGEMENT BY OBJECTIVE DETERMINING OBJECTIVES BASED ON OVERALL GOALS CLOSE COOPERATION BETWEEN A MANAGER AND HIS/HER SUBORDINATES 63
  • 64. BUDGETING THEORIES ZBB ZERO BASED BUDGETING LARGER BUDGET BROKEN INTO SMALLER “DECISION PACKAGES” MANAGERS OF EACH DECISION PACKAGE JUSTIFIES ENTIRE BUDGET FROM SCRATCH EACH YEAR (ZERO- (ZERO BASE) 64
  • 65. BUDGETING THEORIES BUDGETING FOR PERFORMANCE LINKING: INPUTS, OUTPUTS, AND OUTCOMES 65
  • 66. BUDGETING THEORIES BUDGETING FOR PERFORMANCE INPUT CASH/ACCRUAL OUTPUT PERFORMANCE DATA/INDICATORS/STANDARDS AUTHORITY ACCOUNTABILITY OUTCOME CLEAR OBJECTIVES INDICATORS EVALUATION 66
  • 67. BUDGETING THEORIES BUDGETING FOR PERFORMANCE CLASSIFICATION FUNCTIONAL PROGRAM ORGANIZATIONAL MULTI-YEAR 67
  • 68. BUDGETING THEORIES MTEF MEDIUM TERM EXPENDITURE FRAMEWORK FISCAL TARGETS (WHAT IS AFFORDABLE) FORWARD ESTIMATES OF EXISTING POLICY INSTITUTIONAL MECHANISMS FOR MAKING THE TRADE-OFFS A FOCUS ON PERFORMANCE ENHANCED PREDICTABILITY 68
  • 69. STAGES OF A MTEF Top-Down T D Stage 1 Stage 4 Stage 5 Stage 7 Macroeconomic Detailed Approval Review of f framework k dit expenditure f of ti estimates i t in availability of framework & ceilings by MOF and resources sector/ministry Cabinet presentation ceiling for 3 yrs to Cabinet and Parliament Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 6 Step 1 St Step 3 Sector review Costing Hearings to Preparation of 3-year of ministry (recurrent & agree on estimates by objectives, capital) of objectives & ministries within outputs & p programs/ priority p y Cabinet approved pp activities i ii sub-programs programs ceilings ili for 3 years Step 2 Agreement on sectoral/ministry programs & sub- programs Bottom-up (ADAPTED FROM GERVAIS, 1999)
  • 70. BUDGET CYCLE AND FISCAL POLICY
  • 71. BUDGET CYCLE THE BUDGET CYCLE IS MADE UP OF THE MAJOR EVENTS OR STAGES IN MAKING DECISIONS ABOUT THE BUDGET, AND BUDGET IMPLEMENTING AND ASSESSING THOSE DECISIONS DECISIONS. THE SPECIFIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BUDGET CYCLE DIFFER FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY. NONETHELESS, IN MOST , COUNTRIES, THE BUDGET CYCLE IS LIKELY TO HAVE FOUR STAGES 71
  • 72. BUDGET CYCLE STAGE 1 BUDGET FORMULATION THE BUDGET PLAN IS PUT TOGETHER BY THE EXECUTIVE BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT STAGE 2 BUDGET ENACTMENT THE BUDGET PLAN MAY BE DEBATED DEBATED, ALTERED, AND APPROVED BY THE LEGISLATIVE BRANCH OF GOVERNMENT 72
  • 73. BUDGET CYCLE STAGE 3 BUDGET EXECUTION THE POLICIES OF THE BUDGET ARE CARRIED OUT BY THE GOVERNMENT STAGE 4 BUDGET AUDITING AND ASSESSMENT THE ACTUAL EXPENDITURES OF THE BUDGET ARE ACCOUNTED FOR AND ASSESSED FOR EFFECTIVENESS 73
  • 74. PUBLIC FINANCE GOVERNMENTAL FINANCES TODAY ARE “IN THE PUBLIC EYE” AS NEVER BEFORE (ROSENBLOOM AND KRAVCHUCK, 2005) 74
  • 75. FISCAL FUNCTIONS THE MAJOR FUNCTION OF FISCAL FUNCTIONS ARE: 1. ALLOCATION 2. DISTRIBUTION 3. STABILIZATION 75
  • 76. ALLOCATION FUNCTION THE PROVISION FOR SOCIAL GOODS, OR THE PROCESS BY WHICH TOTAL RESOURCE USE IS DIVIDED BETWEEN PRIVATE AND SOCIAL GOODS AND BY WHICH THE MIX OF SOCIAL GOODS IS CHOSEN THIS PROVISION MAY BE TERMED THE ALLOCATION OF BUDGET POLICY (MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE 1989) MUSGRAVE, 76
  • 77. DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION ADJUSTMENT OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME AND WEALTH TO ENSURE CONFORMANCE WITH WHAT SOCIETY CONSIDERS A “FAIR” OR “JUST” STATE OF DISTRIBUTION, HERE REFERRED TO AS THE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION (MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE, 1989) 77
  • 78. STABILIZATION FUNCTION THE USE OF BUDGET POLICY AS A MEANS OF MAINTAINING HIGH EMPLOYMENT, A REASONABLE DEGREE OF PRICE LEVEL STABILITY, AND AN APPROPRIATE RATE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH, WITH ALLOWANCES FOR EFFECTS ON TRADE AND ON THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS. WE REFER TO ALL THESE OBJECTIVES AS THE STABILIZATION FUNCTION (MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE, 1989) 78
  • 79. INSTRUMENTS OF STABILIZATION FUNCTION 1. MONETARY INSTRUMENTS - CONTROL OVER MONEY - INTEREST RATE - CREDIT CONDITIONS 2. FISCAL INSTRUMENTS - GOVERNMENT SPENDING - THE AMOUNT AND TYPE OF TAXES 79
  • 80. FISCAL-MONETARY MIX POLICY TO INFLUENCE MACROECONOMIC ACTIVITY 1. TIGHT-MONETARY AND LOOSE-FISCAL POLICY WILL TEND TO ENCOURAGE CONSUMPTION AND RETARD INVESTMENT 2. EASY-MONETARY AND TIGH-FISCAL POLICY WILL TEND TO DISCOURAGE CONSUMPTION AND ACCELERATE INVESTMENT 80
  • 81. PUBLIC SECTOR IN ECONOMY HOUSEHOLDS INCOME SAVING INCOME TAXES CAPITAL MARKET FACTOR SPEND MARKET PRODUCT PUBLIC SERVICE MARKET AND GOODS FIRMS TRANSFER BORROWING PURCHASE GOVERNMENT BUDGET (ADAPTED FROM MUSGRAVE AND MUSGRAVE, 1989) 81
  • 83. PLAYING THE BUDGET GAME SOMETIMES BUDGETING TAKES ON THE AURA OF A GAME, WITH THE GAME VARIOUS AGENCY PLAYERS TRYING TO INCREASE THEIR SHARES AND ELECTED OFFICIALS TRYING, AT LEAST OSTENSIBLY, TO KEEP TAXES DOWN AND PROMOTE ADMINISTRATIVE ECONOMY (ROSENBLOOM AND KRAVCHUCK, 2005) 83
  • 84. A RATIONAL COMPREHENSIVE MODEL OF DECISION MAKING 1. VALUES OR OBJECTIVES ARE DETERMINED AND CLARIFIED SEPARATELY, USUALLY BEFORE CONSIDERING ALTERNATIVE POLICIES 2. POLICY FORMATION IS APPROACHED THROUGH ENDS-MEANS ANALYSIS, WITH ANALYSIS AGREED-UPON ENDS GENERATING A SEARCH FOR WAYS OF ATTAINING THEM 84
  • 85. A RATIONAL COMPREHENSIVE MODEL OF DECISION MAKING 4. A “GOOD” POLICY IS, THEREFORE, ONE GOOD THAT PROVIDES THE MOST APPROPRIATE MEANS TO SOME DESIRED END 5. EVERY IMPORTANT RELEVANT FACTOR IS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT 6. 6 THEORY OFTEN IS HEAVILY RELIED UPON (MILLER, (MILLER 1991) 85
  • 86. OBSTACLE TO DECISIONS 1. 1 LACK OF GOAL CLARITY 2. CONFUSION OF THE PUBLIC INTEREST WITH THAT OF A CUSTOMER CLIENTELE CUSTOMER, GROUP, OR CONSTITUENCY 3. RIGID CONSERVATISM (IN THE SENSE OF STRICT ADHERENCE TO RULES, PROCEDURES, AND PAST PRACTICES 86
  • 87. OBSTACLE TO DECISIONS 4. THE TENDENCY TO OVERSIMPLIFY REALITY 5. “OVERQUANTIFICATION” AND TENDENCY TO DEEMPHASIZE OR IGNORE QUALITATIVE FACTORS 6. RELUCTANCE TO ENGAGE IN POLICY AND PROGRAM EVALUATION (ROSENBLOOM AND KRAVCHUCK, 2005) 87
  • 88. BUDGET DECISION MAKING PROCESS BUDGET BUDGET FROM FROM TECNOCRATIC POLITIC POINT OF VIEW POINT OF VIEW DISTORTION ACCORDANCE BUDGET 88
  • 89. INDONESIA NATIONAL BUDGET SCHEME (SINCE 2005) 20 YEARLY 5 YEARLY YEARLY PRESIDENT’S VISION LTDP MTDP GWP STRA-PLAN OF DEPT DEPT AP DEPT ABP STATE BUDGET 89