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Property Market Report For Clients, Associates & Special Friends Property Market Report For Clients, Associates & Special Friends Document Transcript

  • Property Market Report QueenslandAbout This Report March quarter 2012PRP Valuers and Consultants prepare standard research reports covering themain markets within which we operate in each of our capital cities and major INSIDE THIS ISSUE:regional locations. Economic Fundamentals 2The markets covered in this research report include the commercial officemarket, industrial market, retail market, hotel and leisure market and residential Brisbane CBD Office Market 3market. Gold Coast Office Market 5 Retail Market 6We regularly undertake valuations of residential property for mortgagepurposes, as well as for development funding purposes. We also undertake Industrial Market 7valuations of commercial, retail, industrial, hotel and leisure and special purposeproperties for many varied reasons, as set out later herein. Residential Market 9 Hotel and Leisure Market 12Please contact a Director of our relevant office for any valuation or consulting About Preston Rowe Paterson 16quotations and advice.Property Market Report—March 2012 1
  • Economic FundamentalsThe Australian economy continues torecord moderate growth, despite the Gross Domestic Productglobal outlook remaining cloudy. 400,000.0 5Slightly below trend, GDP increasedby 2.3 percent over 2011, with the 350,000.0 4December quarter recording a 0.4 300,000.0 3percent increase. Lower thanexpected GDP growth is a partial 250,000.0 2 GDP Millionsreflection of the extreme weather % Changeconditions experienced earlier in the 200,000.0 1year. 150,000.0 0Another disappointing month for retail 100,000.0 -1spending in February 2012, as totalretail sales rose by a mere 0.2 50,000.0 -2percent. Welcomed rises were seen inFood Retailing, Department Stores 0.0 -3 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Dec-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11and Other Retailing, whilst falls wererecorded in Cafes & Restaurants, Gross Domestic Product Seasonally Adjusted % Change Seasonally AdjustedClothing Retailers and Household Source: ABS/PRP ResearchGoods Retailing.The unemployment rate rose to 5.2 Unemployment (Rate and Persons)percent in February. Job figures fell by 5,500,000 14.015,400, underpinned by falls in parttime employment, as fulltime jobs 12.0remained flat. The participation rate 5,000,000fell from 65.3 percent to 65.2 percent, 10.0with the decline concentrated in Unemployed personsMales, whilst total hours worked rose Unemployment Rate % 4,500,000 8.0by 1.4 percent. 6.0 4,000,000The RBA held the official cash rateunchanged at 4.25 percent, and 4.0explained that despite easing interest 3,500,000rates by 50 basis points in late 2011, 2.0the current pace of output growth issomew hat l ow er than earli er 3,000,000 0.0 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12anticipated. The RBA stated that itwould wait for Q1 CPI data before Unemployed Persons Unemployment Rateconsidering a further step in easing Source: ABS/PRP Researchmonetary policy.Consumer sentiment tumbled in QLD Turnover and Consumer SentimentMarch, with the Westpac-Melbourne 130.0 5,000Institute index recording a 5 percent 125.0 4,800decline over the month. The index fell Westpac-Melb Institute Consumer Sentiment Index 120.0 4,600from 101.10 in February 2012 to 96.1 in 115.0March 2012. Domestic economic QLD Turnover ($ million) 4,400conditions and employment listed as 110.0 4,200Survey respondents main concerns. 105.0 4,000 100.0The Consumer Price Index (CPI) 95.0 3,800re m a i n e d u n c h a n g e d i n t h e 3,600 90.0December 2011 quarter, compared 3,400to a 0.6 percent rise experienced in 85.0the September quarter. A significant 80.0 3,200rise was recorded in domestic holiday 75.0 3,000travel and accommodation with a 7.3 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11percent increase. Not surprisingly fallswere observed in fruit and vegetables Consumer Sentiment Index QLD Turnoverwith falls of 13.4 percent and 5.0 Source: ABS/PRP Researchpercent respectively.Property Market Report—March 2012 2
  • Commercial Office MarketBRISBANE CBD OFFICE Brisbane Commercial - Stock & Vacancy Brisbane CBD Brisbane FringeMARKET Precinct/Grade Stock (m2) Vacancy % Stock (m2) Vacancy % Total (All Grades) 2,071,240 6.16% 1,136,347 7.63%Supply Premium 140,015 2.65%In the six months to January 2012, A Grade 812,629 4.05% 526,795 3.09%39,400 sqm of office space entered B Grade 837,034 7.49% 411,912 13.36%the Brisbane CBD office market follow- C Grade 220,220 8.36% 175,622 8.79%ing the completion of 123 Albert D Grade 61,342 16.09% 22,018 0.00%Street. When construction reachedcompletion in early 2012, The Dexusowned 26 level building, added Brisbane CBD Office Market38,500 sqm of Premium office space Net Absorptionto the Brisbane CBD office market. Rio 90,000Tinto committed to 25,000 sqm ofspace in 2008, whilst recent agree- 70,000ments were reached with QTC and Audited Net Absorption 12 months to...(sqm)Urbis to secure 4,000 and 1,500 sqmrespectively. 50,000The Brisbane CBD supply pipelinelooks set to return to more positive 30,000territory in the coming years with111,000 sqm of additional space ex- 10,000pected to reach completion over2012. 64,000 sqm is forecast to come -10,000on line with the completion of the GPTWholesale Office Fund/Abu Dhabi -30,000Investment Authority joint venture at Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12111 Eagle Street, with a further 28,200sqm after the completion of 145 Ann Source: PCA/PRP ResearchStreet. An additional 18,800 sqm ofrefurbished office space will furtherbolster current CBD office market Brisbane CBD Office Marketlevels. Looking further into the supplypipeline, 2013 completion levels sof-ten to sub 20,000 sqm, before return- 3.0% 6.8% 10.6%ing to more buoyant levels in 2014.Net Absorption/Vacancy Lev-elsBrisbane CBD vacancy levels firmed1.2 percentage points in the sixmonths to January 2012, falling from7.4 percent recorded in the six months 39.2%to July, to 6.2 percent in the six months 40.4%to January 2012. Lower grade stock (c& d) in Brisbane CBD office marketexperienced a softening in vacancyrates over this period, with D grade Premium A-Grade B-Grade C-Grade D-Graderecording the most marked increase Source: PCA/PRP Researchin vacancy rates, lifting from 10.5 per-cent in the six months to July to 16.1 total space in the Brisbane CBD office space has been in demand in the sixpercent in the six month to January market has risen by 1.4 percent, rising month to January 2012, rising to 39.22012. On a more positive note B from 2.04 million sqm in the six months percent of market share. C Gradegrade vacancy rates tightened from to January 2011 to 2.07 million sqm in space saw a marginal decline in oc-10.9 percent recorded in the six the six months to January 2012. A cupancy rates, falling from 220,646months to July 2011 to 7.5 percent in Grade stock saw the sharpest in- sqm to 220,220 sqm in the six monthsthe six months to January 2012. crease in occupancy levels over the to January 2012. year, rising by 4.9 percent. B GradeOccupancy levels still dominates the market with 40.4In the 12 months to January 2012, percent of share; however A gradeProperty Market Report—March 2012 3
  • Demand/Leasing Activity Fortitude Valley from Laing O’Rourke The final transaction to have occurredWith record levels of expansion by the for undisclosed terms. The Building is in the first quarter of 2012 was sale ofresources sector and a renew confi- now 100 percent precommitted and the Becton office Fund’s 369 Anndence is other sectors, net absorption is expected to reach completion in Street for approximately $36.25 million.was well above historical long term mid 2012. An undisclosed private investor pur-averages. Just over 54,000 sqm of chased the 6,700 sqm office block onspace was absorbed in CBD office Rentsmarket over the six months to January A robust leasing environment and an initial passing yield of 10.04 per-2012, taking the 12 months total ab- tightening vacancy rates in the Bris- cent. With long term growth drivers insorption rate to over 92,000 sqm. Since bane CBD have underpinned rental place for the Queensland economyJanuary 2010, approximately 187,000 growth in both premium and A grade and demand set to remain strong,sqm of space has been absorbed in space. Premium grade rents have good quality assets are expected tothe Brisbane CBD office market. As increased by over 2 percent in the last continue to attract attention fromsupply levels increased by only twelve months to sit between $700 - investors.118,000 sqm over this period, declin- $825 sqm pa. A Grade office space ining vacancy rates resulted. Looking the Brisbane CBD attracts rental ratesinto further detail, 37,000 sqm of A of between $625 - $725 sqm. In the sixgrade space was absorbed in the six months to March 2012, Lower grademonths to January 2012, with B grade office space (b) has transacted rang-space seeing robust demand with ing between $500 -$625 sqm.over 21,000 sqm of take-up.Reinforcing confidence in the market, Investment Activitydemand levels remained buoyant in Strengthening tenant demand com-the first quarter of 2012, with several bined with a robust economic growthlarge leasing deals transacted over outlook over the medium term, hasthe three months to March. Dominate caught the attention of both the do-players in the market include the pro- mestic and the offshore investor alike.fessional services and the enormous Five major transactions were re-presence felt by the resource sectors. corded by PRP Research in the Bris-Xstrata secured just under 2,500 sqm bane Office Market, during the firstof premium space from GPT Group at quarter of 2012, with a total transac-111 Eagle Street, whilst late March tion value of $291 million. The mostsaw Arrow Energy leasing 14,800 sqm notable transaction to occur duringat the same address, on an eight year this period was the purchase of 215lease for an undisclosed rent. Adelaide Street, Brisbane by US basedNot forgetting the professional ser- Preamerica Real Estate Investors forvices sector, Queensland Treasury $134.5 million. The 30,000 sqm officeCorporation leased just over 3,800 tower was purchased from GIC on ansqm of space from Dexus Property approximate passing yield 8.5 per-Group at 123 Albert Street, for re- cent. A further notable transaction toported par $725 sqm pa for a period occur during the first quarter of 2012of seven years and after 20 years at was The Hines Global REIT purchase of300 Queens street, BDO has commit- 144 Montague Street in South Brisbaneted to 6,000 sqm of refurbished space for a reported $88 million. The 15,000at 12 Creek street for a period of 12 sqm building was purchased fromyears. Empricia Management Trust on anFollowing trend of decentralisation initial yield of 8.5 percent.activity by core service providers and 379 Queen Street sold in March 2012,public sector industries, a number of for a reported $21 million totenants are moving outside the CBD Kingsmede Pty Ltd. The 15 level, 5500and relocating to the suburbs &Fringe. The bank of Queensland has sqm commercial tower is fully leasedpre-committed to leasing 12,500 sqm with a net income of approx $2.4 mil-of space at the new “Gasworks” de- lion per year, representing an initialvelopment at Newstead Riverpark in passing yield of around 11.5 percent.the Brisbane Fringe. The development An undisclosed private investor pur-is expected to begin construction in 215 Adelaide Street, Brisbane was purchased chased 20 Wharf Street for approxi- by Preamerica Real Estate, for $134.5 Million.2013 and scheduled for completion inFebruary 2014, with rents believed to mately $11.3 million in January thisbe in the low $500 per sqm bracket. year. Chesterton International bro-The Macquarie Group has leased kered the deal for vendor, NEXTDC on3,200 sqm of space at 825 Ann Street, an initial passing yield of 8.3 percent.Property Market Report—March 2012 4
  • GOLD COAST OFFICE Gold Coast Office MarketMARKET Net Absorption 50,000SupplyAn additional 931 sqm was added to 40,000the Gold Coast Office Market in the Audited Net Absorption 12 months to...(sqm)six months to January 2012 with the 30,000completion of a two storey officecomplex at Via Roma Isle of Capri. 20,000The Gold Coast office Market nowconsists of 473,700 sqm of space, of 10,000which 21.8 percent is vacant. The2012 supply pipeline remains positive 0with an anticipated 3,192 sqm of ad-ditional space due to complete over -10,000the year. Just under 2,000 sqm ofoffice space will be added to the -20,000 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12market with the completion of 237Scottsdale Drive Robina, which is ex- Source: PCA/PRP Researchpected in the first half of this year. AFurther 1,200 sqm of space will comeon line when 82 Marine Parade South- Gold Coast Office Marketport completes during the June quar-ter. 3.7%Demand/Vacancy Levels 0.0%In the six months to January 2011 just 28.8%over 3,200 sqm of space was ab-sorbed in the Gold Coast Office Mar- 28.0%ket, taking the 12 month total to 9,888sqm. Positive net absorption andscarce new supply has led to a 0.6percent tightening in the Gold CoastOffice Market vacancy. Vacancy inthis market fell from 22.4 percent re-corded in the six months to July 2011to currently sit at 21.8 percent. B 39.6%Grade vacancy saw the most markedimprovement, tightening by 1.9 per- Premium A-Grade B-Grade C-Grade D-Gradecent points over the six month period. Source: PCA/PRP ResearchHowever in stark contrast D Gradeoffice vacancy weakened by 9.8 2012, however looking closer at a sub-percent over the six months to Janu- market level, A Grade stock posted aary 2012. Vacancy rates in the Gold 13.9 percent increase in occupiedCoast D Grade Office Market rose stock over the period whilst D Gradefrom 12.6 percent in the six months to saw its third decline recording nega-July 2011 to 22.4 percent over the six tive growth of 11.1 percent over themonths to January 2012. period.Occupancy Investment ActivityB Grade space dominates occu- PRP Research did not record any salespancy levels in the Gold Coast Office or lease transactions over 2,500 sqm orMarket, with 39.6 percent of total sup- par $5 million that occurred during theply. A and C Grade space equate for28.8 and 28.0 percent of the market three months to March 2012.respectively. Little change has beenseen in total occupancy levels overthe last 12 months. A mere 2.7 per-cent increase was seen in occupancylevels over the 12 months to JanuaryProperty Market Report—March 2012 5
  • Retail MarketDemand Queensland Retail TurnoverTotal Retail turnover in the state of 4500.0 4.0Queensland saw a 2.1 percent in- 3.5crease over a 12 month period to 3.0February 2012, with robust growth Monthly Percentage Change (%) 2.5 4250.0seen in ‘Other Retailing’ categories 2.0and Food Retailing alike. “Other retail- 1.5ing” underpinned by buoyant in- Retail Turnover $ million 1.0creases in both Pharmaceutical, Cos- 4000.0 0.5metics etc and Newspaper, Book 0.0Retailing, saw a 6.9 percent increase -0.5over the 12 months to February 2012. 3750.0 -1.0Food Retailing grew by 5.2 percent -1.5over the 12 month period, to its high- -2.0est level ever recorded. A growth -2.5spike was also seen in Cafe and Res- 3500.0 -3.0 Nov-11 Feb-11 Feb-12 Sep-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Jun-11 Dec-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 Jan-12 Jul-11 May-11taurant Retailing, however falls wererecorded in Household Good, Depart- Retail Turnover % Changement Stores, and Clothing and Foot- Source: ABS/PRP Researchwear Retailing. Clothing and Foot-wear recorded the largest declineover the 12 months to February 2012, Queenslandfalling by 5.7 percent, whilst Depart- Turnoverment Store and Household Good 0.12 % Monthly ChangeRetailing fell by 5.4 percent and 3.3 0.1percent respectively. 0.08Investment 0.06During the three months to March 0.042012, PRP Research recorded four Monthly % Changemajor retail transactions within the 0.02Queensland Retail Sector, with a total 0 Nov-2011 Dec-2011 Jan-2012 Feb-2012market value of $452.2 million. Most -0.02Notably, Late March saw CFS RetailProperty Trust announce the sale of a -0.0450% share of the Myer Centre in Bris- -0.06bane, to Unlisted Property Trust, ISPT -0.08for $366 million, representing an initialyield of 6.5 percent. The six level CBD Food Retailing Household goods Clothing, Footwear Department Stores Other Retailing Cafe, RestaurantsRegional Shopping Centres provides Source: ABS/PRP Research63,700 sqm of retail space, andhouses Myer, Target, Coles, and 180 investment activity exhibits a renewedadditional speciality retail stores. Prior confidence in the retail property sec-to this sale, LaSalle Australia Core Plus tor despite weakened consumerFund purchased Nerang Mall Shop- spending and increased online retail-ping centre in February 2012 for a ing. Particular interest has beenreported $23.4 million. The 8,700 sqmneighbourhood shopping centre has placed on Queensland and the re-been purchased from Mr Henry Yuen source states for investment opportu-on a yield in excess of 10 percent. nity, as stronger economic growth isMid March, saw Stockland’s purchase forecast.Centro Townsville at Aitkenvale inNorth Queensland for approximately$36.5 million. The 13,650 sqm Subre-gional shopping centre was pur-chased from the Centro owned MCS17 Syndicate on an initial yield of 8.3percent. The centre is anchored byKmart and Coles and contains a fur- 50% share of Myer Centre in Brisbane wasther 25 specialty shops. Increased purchased by ISPT for $366 million, on a yield of 6.5 percentProperty Market Report—March 2012 6
  • IndustrialSupply Leasing Activity: Brisbane Wolston Road after outgrowing itsThe South East Queensland Industrial A renewed confidence in the Queen- current premises at Neon Street.land Monitoring Program identified as sland industrial property market, on DHL Express has pre-committed toat December 2010, 8,852 hectares of the back of increased investment in 4,300 sqm of space in Brisbane’s Air-industrial land that currently exists in the resources sector and positive eco- port Precinct. Construction of the $15the South East Queensland industrial nomic growth saw leasing activity million project will commence in Mayland area, with a further 5,594 hec- trend upwards in the three months to this year and is located at the cornertare of potential industrial land supply March 2012. PRP Research recorded of Lomandra Drive and Boronia Road.available within in the region. It is esti- a number of major transactions that Engineering and construction giantmated that industrial land consump- occurred over this period. The Austra- Clough will lease a 46.9 hectares sitetion in the four years to December lian Mud company, a subsidiary of the at 70 Darlington Drive, Yatala on a five2010, was 120 hectares per annum, Imdex Group has leased just under year term, reportably worth $1.8 millionHowever estimated annual consump- 3,000 sqm of space at 67 Wolston plus per year . The facility comprises oftion of industrial land in South East Road in Sumner Park. The industrial 9,500 sqm of factory, and 1,800 sqm ofQueensland for the six months to De- facility was leased for a five year term, office space.cember 2010 has declined to 41 hec- with a five year option, for a net renttares (or approx 82 hectares per an- of approx $95 per sqm pa. The AMCnum). It is predicted that for a 5 to 15 will relocate to its new premises atyear time frame, 3,940 hectares ofland will be required to meet esti-mated average consumption. Port of Brisbane - Container Trade - TEUsTenant Demand 800,000Fluctuations in demand for logistics 700,000and warehouse space can partly beexplained by ebbs and flow in port 600,000activity. Brisbane Port activity contin-ues to see growth in full import and 500,000export TEU’s. Since the 2007-2008 Fi- Number of TEUsnancial year, TEU activity has grown 400,000by 10.7 percent in the Port of Bris- 300,000bane. Last year, TEU’s activity sawexceptional growth with an 8.5 per- 200,000cent increase. The number of TEU’s inthe Port of Brisbane has grown from 100,000639,800 in the 2009-2010 Financialyear to 694,000 in the 2010-2011 finan- 0 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11cial year.As a percentage of Queensland’s Source: Port of Brisbane /PRP Research Import Exportgross state product, income derivedfrom the manufacturing sector de-clined by 0.4 percentage points in the Queensland Manufacturing Income12 months to June 2011. June 2008 300000 Vs Gross State Product 25000saw the trough of total factor incomefrom manufacturing as a percent ofgross state product, falling to 11.5 250000 20000percent. Although total factor income Manufacturing Income $ millionfrom manufacturing rose to its highest 200000 State Product $millionlevel recorded, Queensland Gross 15000State product also saw robust growth 150000over the year, resulting in a decline in 10000percentage total. A fall in manufac- 100000turing income is consistent with thedeclines seen in average consump- 5000tion levels for industrial land over the 50000six months to December 2010. 0 0 Jan-1991 Jan-1992 Jan-1993 Jan-1994 Jan-1995 Jan-1996 Jan-1997 Jan-1998 Jan-1999 Jan-2000 Jan-2001 Jan-2002 Jan-2003 Jan-2004 Jan-2005 Jan-2006 Jan-2007 Jan-2008 Jan-2009 Jan-2010 Jan-2011 Queensland Gross State Product Manufacturing Total Factor Income Source:ABS/PRP ResearchProperty Market Report—March 2012 7
  • Leasing Activity: Gold CoastAn undisclosed construction com-pany, linked to Queensland’s boom-ing resources sector has leased 5,500sqm of industrial space plus 660 sqmof office space at 32 Demand Ave-nue in Arundel on the Gold Coast. Theproperty is expected to fetch net$450,000 per year in rental income forthe owner, equating to $82 plus persqm pa .Investment ActivityUndoubtedly one of the largest trans-action in Queensland industrial his-tory , Springfield Land Corporation haspurchased half of the high-tech Po-laris Data Centre in Greater Springfieldfor a reported $110.5 million. The pur-chase give Springfield Land Corpora-tion 100 percent ownership of the An undisclosed construction company14,000 sqm building. Tenants include will lease 5,000 sqm of industrial space atBritish Gas, AAPT and Suncorp, who 32 Demand Avenue, Arundelwill retain one third of the floor space.Sydney based Fund manager Heath-ley, purchased a nine hectare indus-trial property at Richlands, from TrinityGroup for $24.5 million. The propertycontains a 13,000 sqm building cur-rently leased to John Holland (a sub-sidiary of Leighton Holdings).In February 2012, Dexus Wholesaleproperty fund purchased a 12,483sqm industrial facility in Morningsidefor a reported $19.7 million, reflectinga yield of 8.25 percent. And Finally,Mainfreight has purchased a 5.4 hec-tare site at 20 Distribution Street, Lara-pinta for a reported $15.8 Million.Mainfreight secured the land adja-cent to Woolworths distribution centrefrom Australand, who purchased theproperty in November 2010 for $12.25Million. The Polaris Data Centre in Greater Spring- field sold for a reported $110.5 million to The Springfield Land Corporation.Property Market Report—March 2012 8
  • ResidentialSupply Demand in 2006 by the ABS. The Australian Bu-Land supply in the South East Queen- Population growth is a factor used in reau of statistics indicated as at Junesland Regional plan is currently limited establishing the demand for future 2006 there were approximatelyby new stock coming through. This housing. The starting point in deter- 671,600 households in the Brisbanestock is often dominated by large lots mining population growth is the popu- Region. In 2017 the ABS predicts anand premium product that meets only lation statistics taken in the Australian additional 195,200 households will bethe requirements for up-graders. In Bureau of Statistics 2006 Census. The required to meet demand. This2009 stronger demand was evident current population at 2006 was esti- equates to an average of 17,700for smaller lots in response to the first mated at 1.8 million persons in the homes per annum. The ABS forecastshome buyer grant; this supply how- Brisbane Region. By the start of 2017 that by 2017 the total number ofever, was quickly taken up. Housing the population of Brisbane is forecast households in Brisbane Region willsupply in Brisbane is based on the to increase to 2.24 million, equating to reach 866,800 households.boundaries of the South-East Queen- an additional 420,000 persons over asland Regional Plan 2009-2031 (SEQ). ten year period, or an average ofThe SEQ Regional Plan is forecast to 42,000 additional persons per annum.accommodate growth to 2031. These Changing demographics and house-boundaries are assessed every five hold characteristics have an impactyears and extensions are based on of demand for housing within Austra-demand and sustainability. lia. The A starting point for additionalAs at June 2009, SEQ had 10,700 hec- households is the Census undertakentares of land identified for future ur-ban use in the supply pipeline with anestimated dwelling yield of 122,000 Projected No. household - Brisbane SD 2,000,000lots. Potential land further down thesupply pipeline contains an additional 1,800,000142,000 dwellings, with 35,500 1,600,000Greenfield lots identified at the devel-opment and subdivisional approval 1,400,000stage.In comparison to 12 months prior, the 1,200,000 Projected No.of householdstotal number of dwelling approvals in 1,000,000the Brisbane Statistical Division de-clined by 16 percent over the year to 800,000December 2011. There were a total of13,480 dwelling approvals in the 2011 600,000calendar year, compared to 16,050 400,000dwelling approvals one year prior. Thedecline in total dwelling approvals 200,000was underpinned by a 25 percentdecline in the number of ‘house’ 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017dwellings. The number of non house Source: ABS / PRP Research Family households Group households Lone person householdsdwelling approvals fared better slidingonly five percent over the 12 monthperiod. Brisbane SD Dwelling ApprovalsConstruction activity in the Sunshine 25,000state continues to decline, with afurther 17 percent fall in the numberof dwelling commencement occur- 20,000ring in the nine months to September2011 in comparison to the same nine Annual Approvalsmonths, the year prior. The total num- 15,000ber of dwellings that commencedduring the nine months to September 10,0002010 reached 15,600 dwellings; how-ever the nine months to September2011 saw total dwelling commence- 5,000ments decline by 3,660 dwellings, tojust under 12,000 dwellings. The num-ber of new ‘house’ dwelling com- 0mencements in the nine months to 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011September 2011 saw the largest year Houses Otheron year decline falling 23 percent. Source: ABS / PRP ResearchProperty Market Report—March 2012 9
  • Market AffordabilityAccording to the HIA/Commonwealth Median House Price by ZoneBank Housing Affordability Index, The $765,000 8.0% $720,000December 2011 quarter, saw housing $675,000affordability in Brisbane improved by $630,000 6.0%7.9 percent, well above the national $585,000trend of a 2.2 percent increase. Bris- $540,000 4.0%bane recorded the strongest national Quarterly Percentage Change (%) Median House Price $495,000result ahead of Canberra at 6.1 per- $450,000 2.0% $405,000cent and the 4.6 percent improve- $360,000ment seen in Melbourne housing af- $315,000 0.0%fordability, and now makes Brisbane $270,000more affordable than Adelaide. Un- $225,000 -2.0%derpinning the result was a fall in aver- $180,000age required loan repayments. Re- $135,000 -4.0% $90,000cent interest rate cuts by the RBA $45,000along with lower house prices have $0 -6.0%resulted in significant improvements in Brisbane Inner Brisbane Middle Brisbane Outer Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Townsville Cairnshousing affordability in Brisbane, asthe average requirement loan repay- Source: REIA/PRP Research Median House Price Quarterly % Changement has fallen in Brisbane to $3078per month, a drop of 7 percent sincelast quarter. The ANZ Australian hous- Median Price for Other Dwellings by Zoneing snapshot released in April 2012, $450,000 10.0%suggests that the outlook for Queen- $425,000sland remains positive, with increased 8.0% $400,000investment in major projects resulting Quarterly Percentage Change (%) 6.0%in an upswing in economic conditions. $375,000A tightening of fundamental and im- $350,000 4.0% Other dwellings median priceproved affordability should result in $325,000 2.0%the Queensland housing market stabi- $300,000lising over the next six months before 0.0% $275,000trending upwards.Over the December 2011quarter, The $250,000 -2.0%Brisbane median house price de- $225,000 -4.0%clined by 0.6 percent, falling from $200,000$427,500 in September to currently sit $175,000 -6.0%at $425,000. The Real Estate institute of $150,000 -8.0%Australia also recorded a year on year Brisbane Inner Brisbane Middle Brisbane Outer Gold Coast Sunshine Coast Townsville Cairnsdecline of 5.6 percent for Brisbanemedian house prices. Median ‘Other Source: REIA/PRP Research Other Dwelling Quarterly % ChangeDwelling’ prices in Brisbane saw posi-tive results over the quarter, rising by were recorded in all Queensland1.9 percent, however experienced zones excluding the Brisbane Outerslight falls year on year, declining 1.1percent to sit at $376,000. and Middle zones where increases ofOver the quarter, falls were recorded 5.6 percent and 0.8 percent werein all zones of Queensland excluding seen respectively. All zones in Queen-Inner Brisbane and Townville, where sland experienced increases over themedian house prices rose by 6.3 per- December 2011 quarter excludingcent and 0.6 percent respectively. Sunshine Coast, Townsville and Cairns.The most prominent fall in median The largest increase over the quarterhouse price over the December quar-ter was recorded in Cairns, where was recorded in the Outer Brisbanemedian house prices fell by 4.4 per- market, which rose by 8.3 percent tocent. In comparison to 12 months sit at $325,000.prior, all zones in Queensland experi-enced falls year on year, with thelargest decline evident in the GoldCoast market, falling by 8.0 percent.Year on year results for median ‘OtherDwelling’ prices were mixed. FallsProperty Market Report—March 2012 10
  • Rental MarketPositive results were seen in the Median Weekly Rents for Houses by ZoneQueensland rental market over the $800December 2011 quarter. The onlydeclines recorded over this period $700were seen in two bedroom houses in $600both the Outer Brisbane and GoldCoast zones. Median rental rates for a Median Weekly Rent ($) $500two bedroom house in Outer Brisbanefell by 1.9 percent to $260 per week, $400whilst Gold Coast two bedroomhomes declined by 7.2 percent to $300$320 per week. With the exception of $200two bedroom houses in the GoldCoast, there were no declines in me- $100dian house rents over the 12 monthmonths to December 2011. The most $0 Brisbane Inner Brisbane Middle Brisbane Outer Gold Coast Townsville Cairnssignificant year on year rise in medianhouse rents was recorded by four 2 Bed House 3 Bed House 4 Bed Housebedroom houses in the Inner Brisbane Source: REIA/PRP ResearchZone. Inner Brisbane Four Bedroomhouse median rent rose by 11.3 per-cent year on year to sit at $690 per Median Weekly Rents for Other Dwellings by Zoneweek. $550Rental rates for ‘other dwellings’ in $500Queensland also remained positiveover the December quarter. Brisbane $450Outer Zone, Other dwelling one bed- $400room rental rates recorded the only Median Weekly Rent ($) $350decline over the quarter, falling 4.8percent to $200 per week. Most zones $300remained unchanged over the pe- $250riod; however a substantial increasewas recorded in one bedroom ‘other $200dwelling’ rental rates in Townsville. $150Townsville one bedroom other dwell-ing median rental rates, increased by $1008.7 percent over the quarter, to $250 $50 Brisbane Inner Brisbane Middle Brisbane Outer Gold Coast Townsville Cairnsper week. Year on year results alsoproved positive for median rental 1 Bed unit 2 Bed unit 3 Bed unitrates in the sunshine state. The most Source: REIA/PRP Researchmomentous increase over the 12month period was recorded forTownsville one bedroom ‘other dwell-ing’ median rental rates, rising by 25percent to $250 per week.Property Market Report—March 2012 11
  • Hotel and LeisureQUEENSLAND/BRISBANE Queensland HMSA Graded Occupancy 85%Supply 80%Supply levels in the Queensland Hotel 75%Motel and Service Apartment market 70% Occupancy Ratehave remained relatively flat since the 65%March 2009 quarter, when over thethree years prior 4900 new rooms 60%flooded the market. The 12 months to 55%December 2011, saw a decline in the 50%total number of rooms available, fal- 45%ling by 1.3 percent. There are cur-rently just over 61,000 rooms available 40%per night in the Queensland Hotel 35%Motel and Serviced Apartment mar- Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11ket. Deloittes Access Economics statesthat Brisbane Hotel Motel and Ser-viced Apartment market “outlook is Source: ABS/PRP Research 1 & 2 Star 3 Star 4 Star 5 Starcharacterised by a relatively highvolume of new hotel projects that aredue for completion over the next two Brisbane Tourism Region HMSAto four years” Increased supply is ex- Rooms and Occupancy - Total Stargradedpected to negatively impact occu- 13500 90%pancy rates. 13000 85%It is reported that with North Queen-sland resources boom driving de- 12500 80%mand for local accommodation in 12000 75%Townsville and the area’s surrounding No. of Rooms Occupancymining towns, two new properties in 11500 70%Townsville will open during May. TheCountry Comfort City Oasis and 11000 65%Chifley Plaza Townsville will offer 4 & 10500 60%4½ star accommodation, as well asfunction and conference facilities. 10000 55%Demand 9500 50% Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11Occupancy rates in the QueenslandHotel Motel and Serviced Apartment No Rooms Occupancy (%)Total Stargraded market grew by 2.1 Source: ABS/PRP Researchpercentage points in the 12 months toDecember 2011 to 66.9 percent. Oc-cupancy rates peaked in the Decem- Brisbane Tourism Region HMSAber 2006 quarter at 69.3 percent. $200 Average Room Rate - Total StargradedLooking further into Stargraded detail:Occupancy rates over all stargrad- $180ing’s in the Queensland Hotel Moteland Serviced Apartment market grew $160excluding 5 Stargraded, which de- Average Room Rateclined slightly by 0.1 percentagepoints. Surprising results were seen in $1401&2 Star combined occupancy ratesover the December quarter, rising 7.1 $120percent in comparison to 12 monthsprior, to 57.2 percent occupancy. $100Occupancy rates in the Brisbane Tour-ism Region Total Stargraded Hotel, $80Motel and Serviced apartment mar- Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11ket continued on an upward trajec-tory rising a further 1.8 percentage Source: ABS/PRP Researchpoints in the 12 months to December2011, to currently sit at 77.2 percent.Property Market Report—March 2012 12
  • Deloittes Access forecasts occupancy Broke Island for nearly $20 million.rates in the Brisbane hotel motel and Couran Cove closed after beingserviced apartment market will be placed into voluntary liquidation. Theweighed down by increased supply, resort offers 158 water front units, con-and are expected to ease by 1 per-centage point over 2012. ference facilities and function rooms.After falling 1.3 percent over the 12months to December 2010, Queen-sland Hotel Motel and Serviced Apart-ment market total stargraded aver-age room rate rose by 2.3 percent inthe 12 months to December 2011 to sitat $156.22. This is the highest levelseen over the December quarter, withaverage room rates rising in all star-graded room. Average room ratesincreased by 17.5 percent in the 1stargraded Hotel Motel and ServicedApartment market to reach $122.39.The 1&2 Stargraded average roomrates also saw significant rises over the12 months to December 2011, in-creasing from $84.39 in December2010 to $97.47 12 months later.After seeing a fall in average roomrates in the Brisbane Tourism marketover the 12 months to December2009, average room rates have in- The Prendiville Group purchased thecreased for the second consecutive Grand Mercure apartment complex onyear, rising by 3.6 percent over the Palmer Street in Townsville for approxi-last 12 month period, a top of a 10.2 mately $20 Million.percent increase over the 12 monthsto December 2010. Average roomrates in the Brisbane Tourism Regiontotal stargraded Hotel Motel and Ser-viced Apartment market, reached$178.34 in the December 2011 quar-ter.InvestmentDespite the positive outlook in hotelaccommodation created by the re-sources sector, limited Transactionsactivity has occurred in the 3 monthsto March 2012. West Australian Hotel-ier Peter Prendiville has purchased theGrand Mercure Apartment complexon Palmer Street in Townsville for ap-proximately $20 million. With 106 dualrooms, the 4 & ½ Star complex was inthe hands of Owenlaw mortgageInvestments. After the takeover theGrand Mercure has been officiallyrebranded to the Grand Hotel, Towns-ville. The property was formally man-aged by Accor Asia Pacific. It has alsobeen reported that The Metro Prop-erty Group is negotiating to purchasethe Couran Cove Resort on Strad-Property Market Report—March 2012 13
  • GOLD COAST Gold Coast Tourism Region HMSA Rooms and OccupancySupply 13900 80%Supply levels in the Gold Coast hotel 13700 75%motel and serviced apartment markethave remained stagnant over the last 1350010 years rising by a mere 3.6 percent No. of Rooms 70% Occupancysince 2002. Over the 12 months to 13300December 2008 the number of rooms 65%in the Gold Coast Tourism Region 13100grew by approximately 400 rooms, 60%resulting in declining occupancy rates 12900over this period. The number of rooms 55%currently available in the Gold Coast 12700hotel motel and serviced apartmentmarket is approximately around 12500 50% Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-1113,300 rooms, down by 2.3 percentsince the peak in 2008. No Rooms Occupancy (%) Source: ABS/PRP ResearchDemandThe Gold Coast hotel motel and ser-viced apartment market has histori- Gold Coast HMSAcally seen occupancy rates sit above Average Room Rate - Total Stargraded $17070 percent, however, due to in-creased supply levels ,saw occu- $160pancy dip to 68.9 percent in the De- $150cember quarter 2008. The December Average Room Rate2011 quarter saw occupancy rates in $140the Gold Coast hotel motel and ser- $130viced apartment market sit at 70.9percent. Occupancy rates in this mar- $120ket fell by 1.2 percentage points over $110the last 12 months and by 3.8 percent-age points since the peak of the mar- $100ket in December 2007. $90 After two years of declining averageroom rates between December 2009 $80 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11and December 2010, average roomrates moved to positive territory in the Source: ABS/PRP Research12 months to December 2011 rising by2.0 percent. Average room rates inthe Gold Coast Hotel motel and ser-viced apartment market reached$155.04 in December 2011. Averageroom rates have declined by 2.8 per-cent over the December quartersince peaking at$159.52 in December2008.Property Market Report—March 2012 14
  • TROPICAL FAR NORTH Tropical North Queensland Region HMSAQUEENSLAND 12000 Rooms and Occupancy - Total Stargraded 75% 70%Supply 11500 65%Over the 12 months to December2011, supply levels in the Tropical 11000 60% No. of Rooms OccupancyNorth Queensland Tourism Region, 55%Hotel Motel and Serviced Apartment 10500market declined by 5.0 percent. The 50%total number of rooms available in this 10000 45%region fell to 10,900 available rooms, afall of 830 rooms since the peak of the 40%market in December 2004. 9500 35%Demand 9000 30% Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11After four years on a downward trend,the December 2011 quarter, saw posi- Source: ABS/PRP Researchtive growth in occupancy rates in the No Rooms Occupancy (%)Gold Coast Hotel Motel and ServicedApartment market. The 12 months to Tropical North Queensland Region HMSADecember 2011saw occupancy rates Average Room Raterise by 2.3 percentage points to 58.0 $160percent. Occupancy rates peaked $150in the Tropical North Queensland Ho-tel Motel and Serviced Apartment $140market in December 2006 at 64.9 per- Average Room Ratecent, but have subsequently declined $130by 6.9 percentage points.Average room rates in the Tropical $120North Queensland Hotel Motel and $110Serviced Apartment market contin-ued on a downward trend over the $100December 2011 quarter, falling a fur-ther 2.6 percent. Average room rates $90in this market fell to $126.91 in Decem- $80ber 2011, resulting is a decline of 12.1 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-11 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11percent since the peak of the marketin December 2007, when average Source: ABS/PRP Researchroom rates reached $144.41.Property Market Report—March 2012 15
  • Our Research Our ClientsAt Preston Rowe Paterson, we pride ourselves on the research Preston Rowe Paterson acts for an array of clients with all typeswhich we prepare in the market sectors within which we operate. of real estate, plant, machinery and equipment interests suchThese include Commercial, Retail, Industrial, Hotel & Leisure and as:Residential. AccountantsOur Corporate Property Services Banks, finance companies and lending institutions Commercial and Residential non bank lenders Real Estate Investment Valuation Co-operatives Real Estate Development Valuation Developers Property Consultancy and Advisory Finance and mortgage brokers Transaction Advisory Hotel owners and operators Property and Asset Management Institutional investors Listed Fund, Property Trust, Super Fund Insurance brokers and companies and Syndicate Advisors Investment advisors Plant & Machinery Valuation Lessors and lessees General and Insurance Valuation Listed and private companies corporations Economic and Property Market Research Listed Property Trusts Local, State and Federal Government Departments and AgenciesTypes of Real Property Mining companies Mortgage trustsWe regularly provide valuation, property and asset management, Overseas clientsconsultancy and leasing services for all types of Real Estate Private investorsincluding: Property Syndication Managers CBD and Metropolitan commercial office buildings Rural landholders Retail shopping centres and shops Solicitors and barristers Stock brokers Industrial, office/warehouses and factories Trustee and Custodial companies Business parks Hotels (accommodation) and resorts Hotels (pubs), motels and caravan parks Residential development projects For more information, please visit our website Residential dwellings (individual houses and apartments/units) Rural properties Special purpose properties such as: nursing homes; private www.prpaustralia.com.au hospitals, service stations, oil terminals and refineries, theatre complexes; etc. Extractive industries, land fills and resource based enterprisesTypes of Plant & MachineryWe regularly undertake valuations of all forms of plant, machinery,furniture, fittings and equipment including: Mining & earth moving equipment/road plant Office fit outs, equipment & furniture Agricultural machinery & equipment Heavy, light commercial & passenger vehicles Industrial manufacturing equipment Wineries and processing plants Special purpose plant, machinery & equipment Hotel furniture, fittings & equipment Preston Rowe Paterson Australasia Pty Ltd ACN: 060 005 807 The information provided within this research report should be regarded solely as a general guide. We believe that the information herein is accurate however no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given in relation to any advice or information contained in this publication and nor any responsibility for any loss or damage whatsoever arising in any way for any representation, act or omission, whether expressed or implied (including responsibility to any person or entity by reason of negligence) is accepted by Preston Rowe Paterson Australasia Pty Ltd or any of its associated offices or any officer, agent or employee of Preston Rowe Paterson Australasia Pty Ltd.Property Market Report—March 2012 16
  • Capital City Offices Capital City Offices Regional Offices Albury WodongaSydney (Head Office) Melbourne Daniel Hogg M: 0408 585 119 E: daniel.hogg@prp.com.auLevel 11, 80 Clarence Street Suite 6.02, 488 Bourke StreetSydney NSW 2000 Melbourne VIC 3000 BallaratPO BOX 4120, Sydney NSW 2001 P: 03 9602 0517 Darren Evans F: 03 9602 1337 M: 0417 380 324P: 02 9292 7400 E: melbourne@prp.com.au E: darren.evans@prp.com.auF: 02 9292 7403E: mailroom@prpnsw.com.au Directors Cairns Neal Ellis Robert CowellDirectors M: 0417 053 116 M: 0410 693 799 E: neal.ellis@prp.com.au E: robert.cowell@prp.com.auGreg Preston Richard CowellM: 0408 622 400 Damian Kininmonth M: 0408 987 554E: gregpreston@prpnsw.com.au M: 0417 059 836 E: richard.cowell@prp.com.au E: damian.kininmonth@prp.com.auGreg Rowe Central Coast/GosfordM: 0411 191 179 Robert DupontE: gregrowe@prpnsw.com.au Adelaide M: 0418 681 874 E: bob@prpncle.com.auAssociate Directors Suite 4, 2A Daws Road David Rich Adelaide SA 5043 M: 0413 052 166Asset Management P: 08 8277 0500 E: david.rich@prpncle.com.auBen Greenwood F: 08 8277 0533 Joshua SmithM: 0448 656 103 E: adelaide@prp.com.au M: 0412 099 908E: bengreenwood@prpnsw.com.au E: joshua.smith@prpncle.com.au DirectorCommercial Valuation/Advisory Rob Simmons GeelongNeal Smith M: 0418 857 555 Gareth KentM: 0448 656 647 E: adelaide@prp.com.au M: 0413 407 820E: nealsmith@prpnsw.com.au E: gareth.kent@prp.com.au Stuart McdonaldRachel Cooper Brisbane M: 0405 266 783M: 0448 757 134 E: stuart.mcdonald@prp.com.auE: rachelcooper@prpnsw.com.au Suite 16, 105 Vulture Street West End QLD 4101 Gold CoastResidential Valuation GPO BOX 1234, Brisbane QLD 4001 Troy ChaplinBen Toole P: 07 3846 2822 M: 0419 029 045M: 0448 886 335 F: 07 3846 2833 E: troy.chaplin@prpqueensland.com.auE: bentoole@prpnsw.com.au E: mailroom@prpqueensland.com.au GippslandAsset, Plant & Machinery Valuation Director Tim BarlowGreg Mason Troy Chaplin M: 0400 724 444M: 0448 757 046 M: 0419 029 045 E: tim.barlow@prp.com.auE: gregmason@prpnsw.com.au E: troy.chaplin@prpqueensland.com.au Alexandra Ellis M: 0407 724 444Manager - Research & Marketing E: alex.ellis@prp.com.auTammy SmithM: 0416 004 964 MorningtonE: tammysmith@prpnsw.com.au Neal Ellis M: 0417 053 116 E: neal.ellis@prp.com.au Damian Kininmonth M: 0417 059 836 E: damian.kininmonth@prp.com.au Newcastle Robert Dupont M: 0418 681 874 E: bob@prpncle.com.au David RichAffiliate offices in Canberra, Perth, M: 0413 052 166Hobart, Darwin and other regional E: david.rich@prpncle.com.au Joshua Smithareas. M: 0412 099 908 E: joshua.smith@prpncle.com.auLocally owned, Globally associated Wagga Wagga Michael Redfern M: 0428 235 588 E: michael.redfern@prp.com.auProperty Market Report—March 2012 17