• Share
  • Email
  • Embed
  • Like
  • Save
  • Private Content
U manchester july 2013
 

U manchester july 2013

on

  • 385 views

 

Statistics

Views

Total Views
385
Views on SlideShare
385
Embed Views
0

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
8
Comments
0

0 Embeds 0

No embeds

Accessibility

Categories

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Adobe PDF

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

    U manchester july 2013 U manchester july 2013 Presentation Transcript

    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Foresight: Exploring the Future, Shaping the Present 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 1 Using Scenarios Why use scenarios, and how to make sure they are effective Gill Ringland CEO & Fellow, SAMI Consulting July 2013
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times SAMI • Our offer – To enhance the capability to anticipate – To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation – Consulting, executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times” • “You can never plan the future by the past” – Edmund Burke, 1729-1797 • Formed in 1989 – Until 1999 based at St Andrews University – Now virtual, owned by Fellows and Principals – Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society 8/4/2013 2www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Agenda • Why use scenarios – Scenarios & forecasts – Early indicators • Using scenarios: examples relating to Health – Radical thinking in the National Health Service – Scenarios lead to a rethink – Scenarios for the future of diagnostics – Health & Safety impacts of “Green” jobs 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 3
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2006 2011 2016 2020 2030 Actual Forecast now London population 1991 forecast “A trend is a trend until it bends” 04/08/2013 4www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Forecasts Today Trends  Range Of Uncertainties Timing ? Forecasts are over-precise 04/08/2013 5www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Scenarios • Forecasts focus on “the right” answer and a partial “right” is often viewed as wrong • Scenarios are – “an internally consistent view of what the future might be”, – “not a forecast but one possible future outcome” • Scenarios explore different possible futures Forecasts Scenarios Source: Professor Michael Porter, “Competitive Advantage:”, (Free Press, 1985) 04/08/2013 6www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Line manager, Corporate Strategist Scenarios Future Engineer manager thinker Early indicators Portfolio Ideas & systems Alternate “843” trends Decisions, management Planning worlds interconnected Timelines Options Decisions Thinking styles 04/08/2013 7www.samiconsulting.co.uk
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Early indicators • Early indicators are a powerful way of engaging the organisation • Are clear “events” which would be a sign that a scenario is evolving • Shell & gas fields – Gorbachev promotion as early indicator of changes in Russia – Decided not to buy gas fields as Russian ones would change pricing – Shell bought Russian gas after the price had collapsed • Often ask a group to think up newspaper headlines that would signal a scenario, as a way of “thinking in” to a scenario. 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 8
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Using scenarios • Public policy – Radical thinking in the National Health Service – Challenging assumptions about the Green economy • Inside organisations – Scenarios lead to a rethink in planning – Scenarios for the future of diagnostics create a vision • Will cover for each case study – Process – Presentation and communication – Outcomes 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 9
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times NHS – Hemingford scenarios • New Head of Planning at Department of Health, National Health Service (NHS), Richard Walsh (now a SAMI Fellow) • Focal question: what and who is the NHS for? • 30 people consulted on clinical practice, public values, context for health care, demography, disease trends • 12 people in a 2 day workshop at Hemingford • 4 scenarios developed, with implications for – Primary care led NHS, – Health and health care – Public involvement www.samiconsulting.co.uk 108/4/2013
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Drivers of change Role of NHS Climate change TechnologyBudget Changing lifestyles Increasing population Demographics +? +++-- -+++ + ++ + Deficit reduction National? Centralised? -- +/-? +/-? Wellness or illness? +++?
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Scenario matrix for NHS Forecastable “trends” Uncertain Less important Important Demographics - ageing Increasing population Changing lifestyles Technology advances Disease orientation or well- being oriented? Health national vs international? Centralised or decentralised management?
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Visualising the scenarios Wellbeing as you like it CentralisedDecentralised Wellbeing Illness oriented International National Health is wealth Science makes the big push Renewed welfare order
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times The outcomes •8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Page 14 • The scenario team designed and delivered briefing events for senior management in the NHS to great acclaim • They went to a number of NHS sites and held lunch time events with heated agreement • They did not engage with the public • They did not engage with the politicians • When the next government came in, the new Minister was not aware of the work & thought that the only task was to spend more and make NHS more efficient at high tech treatment of illness (Science makes the big push)
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Wanless Report SAMI Consulting 2006 • Treasury report chaired by Derek Wanless – “Securing Our Future Health: Taking a Long-Term View” (to 2022) • Discussed the role of demographics, changing patterns of disease and cures, technology • 3 simple scenarios – used a numerical model for demands, and for costs – Solid progress: less change in preventative care – Slow uptake: NHS performance improvements – Fully engaged : changes in demand • Showed that – within any possible expenditure on the NHS – changes in patterns of demand were needed to balance the books between demand and supply – Neither Solid Progress or Slow Uptake were viable
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times The outcomes •8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk Page 16 • The report upset the “official future” • Science makes the big push • Started the understanding that technology is only part of the answer • Change in UK health policy focus towards changing peoples’ behaviours • Reduction in obesity • Increase in anti-smoking campaigns • Promotion of exercise • GPs offer yearly check ups • Also a move towards self help via pharmacists, etc
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times • SAMI Fellow Michael Owen ran GSK’s first scenarios project • Interviews & desk research • Workshops to develop scenarios for the global health care industry, explore strategic options • Led to new focus on global initiatives & new technologies • Also projects in R&D, marketing, manufacturing & supply, regions • SAMI asked back to work with manufacturing and supply, using scenarios to plan for flexible (“agile”) manufacturing processes • Scenarios later used to set vision for diagnostics new business
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times The diagnostics background • Since the science and technology of genetics was developing fast – Should GSK develop their capability in diagnostics and prognostics? – If so, should this be by acquisition or inhouse development? • Decided to set up Predictive Medicine Group • Needed to set vision, mission, long term goals – Scenarios project coached by Clem Bezold of Institute for Alternative Futures 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 18
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Creating the scenarios • Assumptions: we will be able to predict in the near future – Who is likely to develop a particular disease – How treatments will work with different individuals – Likely outcome of treatments • Scan for drivers of change, group into clusters which were scored for probability and impact on Glaxo’s business • Create 4 scenarios – Best guess Health care gains continue – Hard times Recession slows health care gains – Paradigm shift Integrated biosciences pay off – Visionary paradigm shift Globalhealth.com 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 19
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Using the scenarios • Team identified the drivers which were important in all four scenarios • Drivers which were only found in one scenario were used to develop early indicators • The vision needed to be robust across all scenarios – Improving lifelong healthcare through predictive knowledge • The mission included integrating novel diagnostics and prognostics with therapeutic interventions (GSK’s traditional business) 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 20
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Presentation • Recognised difficulty of presenting plausible futures to operational managers • Chose to use a mock television interview around “The Fifth Colony” • Four colonists had been in space and developed a health care system for their scenario over 10 years • Why were they different? • The Fifth Colony represented the ideal future which captured the learning over 10 years from the colonists (scenarios) » 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 21
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times The outcomes • Predictive Medicine Group’s recommendations accepted • Scenarios widely used by Glaxo – Briefings across the company – Scenario brochure describing the scenarios distributed across the company – Scenarios used by other groups to formulate strategy • Released to the public at an industry conference – Then presented in seminars etc as a contribution to public policy in medicine • Early indicators used by Business Development to seek new opportunities 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 22
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Health risks associated with ‘green’ technologies • Project for European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU- OSHA) http://www.samiconsulting.co.uk/4EUOSHAreport2013.pdf – SAMI team led by Fellow John Reynolds worked with UK Health and Safety Laboratory (HSL) and Technopolis • Looked at new and emerging risks from new technologies in ‘green jobs’ to 2020 • Selection of (16) key drivers of change and (8) key technologies • Developed a set of base scenarios • Developed timelines for each key technology • Analysed new and emerging risk for safety and health at work • Presented across Europe, sponsored by Health & Safety organisations www.samiconsulting.co.uk 23
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Main Drivers of Future Change 1. Economic Growth • Growth In Europe • Global Growth rates 2. Green Culture and Values • Public Opinion • Government Incentives and controls • Energy Efficiency and Resource Use • Waste Management and Recycling 3. Rate of Innovation in Green technology 24
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times GreenValues Economic Growth Deep Green Strongly green culture and values Bonus World Strong Growth Global and European Win - Win High innovation in Green Technology VeryStrong Low Growth High Growth Weak Three Scenarios
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Win - Win Defined by – Strongly Green Values – High economic growth – High rate of Innovation in Green Technologies • Green growth is sustainable. • Green activities are seen as a major contribution to economic growth rather than simply as a cost • Technology is delivering on its promise to make green growth achievable 26
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times “I guess every smart grid needs a call centre but it’s still pretty stressful” “We scored 8 out of 10 in the last green audit… how can we do even better next time?” “every day we continue to re- design the human-machine interface...” “welcome to the L.Z.C. Safety & Health @ Work training module. Today we look at everyday hazards...” Win-Win Human systems
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Win-Win Manufacturing now that robots or “co-bots” do most of the work.... What’s there to worry about ??? Boredom ... insecurity ... Keeping up with innovation ... And, what if they do not keep out of our way... +++ THIS HUMAN HAS A POOR TRAINING RECORD+++ KEEP HER UNDER ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE +++
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Bonus World Defined by • High economic growth • Low Green Values • Medium rate of Innovation in Green Technology (directed towards profits) 29
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Deep Green Defined by • Strongly Green Values • Low economic growth • Medium rate of Innovation in Green Technologies 30
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Outcomes • The scenarios provided a a neutral and safe environment for important discussions between different groups of stakeholders – Many current assumptions were challenged (including targets that are unlikely to be met) – Some organisations realised that their plans were not robust • The scenarios could be used for the analysis of a broader range of technologies and policies • The scenarios were a robust tool for the anticipation and analysis of future challenges; and developing more robust ‘future proofed’ strategies and policies www.samiconsulting.co.uk 31
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Summary • Why use scenarios – Scenarios & forecasts – Early indicators • Using scenarios: examples relating to Health – Radical thinking in the National Health Service • But failure to communicate to decision makers – Scenarios lead to a rethink • Numerical models changed assumptions – Scenarios for the future of diagnostics • Communication to operational managers – Health & Safety impacts of “Green” jobs • Cartoons to highlight the different values embodied in the scenarios 8/4/2013 www.samiconsulting.co.uk 32
    • Robust decisions in uncertain times Thank you! www.samiconsulting.co.uk 33 If you would like to get our monthly enewsletter eSAMI ---- please ask – esami@samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our training courses (with the Horizon Scanning Centre of the Foresight Unit) see www.samiconsulting.co.uk. For details of our Blowing the Cobwebs off our Mind events, please ask, cobwebs@samiconsulting.co.uk. The NHS case study is in “Scenario Planning”, published by John Wiley. The GSK case study is in “Scenarios in Business”, also published by John Wiley The Report from the “Green Jobs” study is on the SAMI web site www.samiconsulting.co.uk. .