Derek Arndt - Water Crisis March 11, 2013

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Derek Arndt - Water Crisis March 11, 2013

  1. 1. Drought  and  Climate Deke  Arndt 11  March  2013Monday, March 11, 13 1
  2. 2. Two  Guarantees  on  Drought • This  drought  will  end • There  will  be  another  droughtMonday, March 11, 13 2
  3. 3. Drought  and  Climate • Some  parts  of  the  world  (par@cularly  interior  of  con@nents)  are   naturally  prone  to  big  swings. • Dryness  is  part  of  the  climate;  so  is  drought • Lots  of  complex  defini@ons,  with  a  helpful  simplifica@on: • not  enough  water  to  meet  needs • Drought,  unlike  other  hazards,  is  about  supply  and  demand. • There  is  a  supply  component:  rain,  snow,  precipita@on • There  is  a  demand  component:  human,  natural • There  are  ar@ficial  constructs  of  each:  reservoirs,  water  extrac@onMonday, March 11, 13 3
  4. 4. Drought  and  Changing  Climate • Increased  vigor  in  water  cycle • Rules  of  thumb  (sweeping  generali@es  with  many  local   excep@ons): • Wet  places  geOng  wePer;  dry  geOng  drier • Wet  seasons  geOng  wePer;  dry  geOng  drier • Big  Rain  episodes  geOng  bigger • These  are  predicted  by  climate  science • These  are  borne  out  by  the  data • 2011  emblema@c  of  thisMonday, March 11, 13 4
  5. 5. Drought  and  Changing  Climate • Going  back  to  concept  of   supply  and  demand • Big  Heat:  An  addi@onal  “Tax”   in  the  supply  and  demand   equa@on • 2012  emblema@c  of  this “Green  Up”  and  “Brown  Down”  of  the   • Area  of  “severe”  drought   U.S.  Midwest  during  the  drought   expansion  of  2012.  (from  Karl  et  al.,  2012   increased  by  11%  due  to  high   –  Nov  20  issue  of  Eos temps  in  spring  2012Monday, March 11, 13 5
  6. 6. Lake  Michigan-­‐HuronMonday, March 11, 13 6
  7. 7. Drought  Is  Rarely  Like  ThisMonday, March 11, 13 7
  8. 8. Drought  Isn’t  Sexy • Drought  impacts  not  always  so  visible • Drought  is  about  supply  and  demand • No  screaming,  no  chasing,  no  “debris  ball”  signature  on  radar • Prepare  for  violent  weather  by  building  structure • Prepare  for  drought  by  building  a  plan • Violent  weather  tests  structures • Drought  tests  communi@es • Violent  weather  leaves  visible,  drama@c  debris • What  is  the  debris  of  drought • Violent  weather  a^er-­‐school-­‐special  ending:  “we’ll  rebuild” • What  is  the  a^er-­‐school-­‐special  ending  for  drought?Monday, March 11, 13 8
  9. 9. Thank  YouMonday, March 11, 13 9

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