Ict education & job trends november 2012

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  • 1. New Zealand ICTTertiary Education & Job Series November 2012 garry.roberton@wintec.ac.nzNote: Penultimate edition
  • 2. Insights for November 2012 Enrolments:  Between 2007 and 2010;  ICT diploma *EFT student enrolments increased by 36 per cent  ICT degree EFT student enrolments increased by 14 per cent  Between 2009 and 2010;  ICT diploma EFT student enrolments declined by 2.4 per cent, while the completion rate fell by 10 per cent (refer slide 6)  ICT degree EFT student enrolments increased by 8 per cent, while the completion rate fell by 2 per cent (refer slide 10) (The completion rate fell by 6% between 2007 & 2010) Trademe IT Job Adverts:  Down 5 per cent for the month (-4 per cent last month & -11 per cent for September) Seek ICT NZ Job Adverts:  Total job adverts;  Down 5.4 per cent for the month following a 1 per cent increase last month  Down 9.0 per cent on November 2011 (Down 8 per cent last month)  Just 4 per cent up on November 2010 *EFT Equivalent Full Time (includes part-time enrolments) Note: Data analysis performed on Friday 9th November 2012
  • 3. NZ CS/IS/IT Diploma Completions Domestic & InternationalNew for 2005 to 2010November2,000 1,800 1,660 Number of students completing qualification 1,600 1,400 1,200 Domestic 1,000 Intl 820 800 600 400 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Note: PTE completions at 1680 (refer next slide) represent two thirds of the 2480 total completions with ITPs providing the remaining third (800) Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 4. NZ CS/IS/IT Diploma Completions by Tertiary Institute (Domestic + International) New for 2010 November 30 Universities 790 0 Institutes of technology and polytechnics 1,680 Wānanga 810 Public providers (TEIs) Private training establishmentsNote: Tertiary education institutions (TEIs), NZ’s public providers, operating under one national system, comprise:  Eight universities with emphasis on academic education  Twenty state owned ITPs with emphasis on vocational education  Three wänanga (education delivered within a Mäori context). Zero completions means less than 5 were recorded  Forty Industry Training Organisations (ITOs)PTEs: At any one time there are between 700 and 800 registered Private Training Establishments. Source: (Accessed November 2012)Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 5. Number of CS/IS/IT diploma completions recorded in 2010 (refer bar chart in slide 3)Domestic students 1660International students 820Total 2480The discrepancy between this total (2480) and the total numbers in theprevious pie chart (slide 4) is due to the ITP completion numbers appearingtwice; i.e. once under the ITP category and once under the TEI category. Allother TEI completions were (relatively) insignificant (approx.20)
  • 6. NZ CS/IS/IT Diploma Completions as aNew for Percentage of EFT* Students EnrolledNovember 2005 to 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 4,000 90% *EFT Equivalent Full Time Students 3,500 80% 70% All completions 3,000 Completions as a % of EFTS Enrolled 60% EFT Students EnrolledEFTS & Completions 2,500 50% 2,000 Completions as a 40% percentage of EFT Students Enrolled 1,500 30% 1,000 20% 500 10% 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 7. NZ CS/IS/IT Degree Completions Domestic & InternationalNew for 2005 to 2010November 1,200 1,000 Number of students completing qualification 800 710 Domestic Intl 600 400 200 200 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 8. NZ CS/IS/IT Degree Completions by Tertiary Institute (Domestic + International) 2010New forNovember 0 Universities 650 910 Institutes of technology and polytechnics Wānanga 270 Public providers (TEIs) Private training establishments 0 Note: • The 910 completions (refer slide 6) for TEIs represents the combined University and ITP completions, plus an additional 10 completions from other public providers; i.e. ITOs and Wänanga • Zero completions means less than 5 were recorded Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 9. NZ CS/IS/IT Degree CompletionsNew for as aNovember Percentage of EFT* Students Enrolled 2005 to 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 7,000 30% *EFT Equivalent Full Time Students 6,000 25% Completions (Left axis) Completions as a % of EFTS Enrolled 5,000 20% EFTS & Completions 4,000 EFT Students Enrolled (Left axis) 15% 3,000 Completions as a percentage of EFT Students Enrolled (Right 10% axis) 2,000 Note: Further analysis of the enrolment figures needs to be conducted before any sensible 5% 1,000 conclusion can be drawn from the decline in degree completion percentages; i.e. 12% between 2006 and 2010. During this period enrolments increased by 2.7%. 0 0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 10. 2007 Peak Seek & Trademebefore ICT Job Advert Trendsrecession All NZ 3500 3000 2500 Trademe IT 2000 No.of Jobs Seek ICT 1500 1000 500 0 Sept Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov 2007 Month & Year Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 11. Seek ICT Job Advert Monthly Trends 2010 - 2012 3500 3000 2500 No. of Job Adverts 2000 2012 1500 2011 1000 2010 500 0 Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec MonthSource: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 12. Seek ICT Job Advert Trends Change for the Month of November 2012 0.0% Auckland Waikato Wellington Canterbury Total NZ -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% Percentage Change -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% -16.0% -18.0% -20.0%Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 13. Seek ICT Job Advert Trends Year to November 2012 Total NZ Canterbury November 2011 Wellington Waikato Auckland 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Auckland Waikato Wellington Canterbury Total NZ Nov-12 1283 35 717 219 2332 Oct-12 1347 41 720 267 2466 Sep-12 1315 72 679 286 2445 Aug-12 1523 55 787 272 2725 Jul-12 1608 65 752 230 2742 Jun-12 1644 50 793 220 2786 May-12 1520 40 878 243 2784 Apr-12 1407 45 689 221 2438 Mar-12 1577 48 853 218 2768 Feb-12 1539 61 805 266 2753 Jan-12 1087 32 543 185 1904Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 14. Seek ICT Job Adverts by Industry Certification November 2012 Total NZ *Monthly change for;Canterbury Microsoft: Auckland decreased…..….9.7% Canterbury decreased…..23%Wellington All NZ decreased……………9.7% Linux: All NZ decreased……………12% Waikato Canterbury decreased……24% Cisco: All NZ decreased…….......10% Auckland Auckland decreased……..12.6% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Auckland Waikato Wellington Canterbury Total NZ Microsoft 187 7 126 49 392 Cisco 90 4 50 19 175 Linux 432 13 203 61 735*Note: all categories recorded increases last monthSource: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 15. Seek ICT Job Adverts Filtered by Management Certifications November 2012250 163200 238150 PMP 163 Prince ITIL100 Significant monthly changes:  ITIL:  All NZ down 6% (down 7% last month)50  Auckland down 17%  Wellington up 17.6% 0 Auckland Wellington Canterbury Waikato Total NZ Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 16. Seek ICT Job Adverts by Programming Language November 2012 17% Total NZ 35% 16%Canterbury 32%Wellington All NZ;  Java decreased……….…11% (Auckland down 14.5%) Waikato  .NET decreased…….…..12%  Other changes for .NET; Auckland  Auckland down 22%  Wellington up 11% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800  Canterbury down 21% Auckland Waikato Wellington Canterbury Total NZ  PHP decreased for; .NET 177 5 99 48 342  Auckland.…………………..14% PHP 348 10 143 48 636 C# 169 8 62 41 310  Wellington………………….17% Java 384 9 165 49 701 Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 17. Seek ICT Job Adverts Seek ICT Job Adverts by Role Mobile Apps November 2012 Distribution by Major Regions November 2012 270 Auckland Programmer/Developer 17% 545445 System Support Wellington 22% Help Desk 61% 147 Canterbury 987 Network (All categories) Mobile (Apps)Notes: Decreased demand this month for: Wellington increased its percentage this Prog/Dev down 10 per cent (Up 7% last month) month - at the expense of Auckland?☺ Mobile apps down 15.5 per centSource: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 18. Seek ICT Job Advert Trends Cloud Category9080706050 Regional Distribution of Cloud Jobs403020 Following several monthly increases for job ads in the cloud category, a decrease of 16.510 per cent occurred for this month. 0 Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 19. Seek ICT Job Advert Trends Cloud Category by Role November 2012 14 8 Admin 13 36 Analyst Consultant 23 Developer 10 Engineer 34 Sales Specialist Increases occurred this month for the following roles:  Developer up 6 per cent  Sales up 30 per cent  Specialist up 8 per centSource: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 20. Seek ICT Cloud Job Adverts Sales category examplesSource: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 21. Seek ICT Job Adverts Filtered by DBA/Developer November 2012 37% 31% Total NZ 32% WaikatoCanterbury Changes for the month:  SQL Server (all NZ) up 1.5%Wellington (Wellington up 8%)  SAP (all NZ) down by 3% (Wellington up 2%) Auckland  Oracle (all NZ) down by 8.5% (Waikato up 33%) 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Auckland Wellington Canterbury Waikato Total NZSQL Server 531 246 98 19 930SAP 494 230 50 13 805Oracle 480 234 55 12 802 Source: (Accessed November 2012)
  • 22. News BytesLocal Scene  The Institute of IT Professionals New Zealand (IITP) and AUT University’s Centre for Research on Information Systems Management (CRISM) have launched a major research project;  The joint initiative will investigate the critical factors that drive IT professionals today and led them to take up a career in the field and  will allow a direct comparison with similar research in other countries such as Australia and Singapore – published October 2012  In seasonally adjusted terms, skilled job vacancies fell by 5.4%
  • 23. News BytesGlobal Scene Plumbing the depths of Australia’s online job market  Online jobs advertisements fell again to a new record low this past month, and IT is leading the drop:  IT salaries have grown by 4 per cent (ACS) over the period that vacancies have been dropping and there is discussion about a skills shortage (click on the TechRepublic link to access the full article)
  • 24. News BytesGlobal Scene IT Skills Shortage Hemming Irish Recovery:  Over 97,000 people directly employed in the digital technology sector  Significant shortage of design engineers needs addressing;  Technology Visa required in order to fast track the provision of work permits to individuals with the requisite ICT skills and qualifications  ICT industry will face a serious skills crunch in the future unless it focuses on developing its young professionals:  Software developers, high-end integrators and other ICT service providers complain that their growth is constrained by a shortage of relevant skills  A 2011 ITWeb-JCSE Skills Survey suggests that current demand amounts to 20,000 to 30,000 job opportunities, or 10% to 15% of the total ICT workforce UK - : More programming skills required, according to an IT security firm  Many students lack the programming expertise required to find IT jobs in areas such as web security
  • 25. News BytesGlobal Scene : Through 2015, 90% of enterprises will bypass broad-scale deployment of Windows 8 By Year-End 2014, three of the top five mobile handset vendors will be Chinese By 2015, big data demand will reach 4.4 million jobs globally, but only one-third of those jobs will be filled By 2014, European Union directives will drive legislation to protect jobs, reducing offshoring by 20% through 2016 By 2014, IT hiring in major Western markets will come predominantly from Asian-headquartered companies enjoying double-digit growth By 2017, 40% of enterprise contact information will have leaked into Facebook via employees’ increased use of mobile device collaboration applications Through 2014, employee-owned devices will be compromised by malware at more than double the rate of corporate-owned devices Through 2014, software spending resulting from the proliferation of smart operational technology will increase by 25% By 2015, 40% of Global 1000 organizations will use gamification as the primary mechanism to transform business operations By 2016, wearable smart electronics in shoes, tattoos and accessories will emerge as a $10 billion industry By 2014, market consolidation will displace up to 20% of the top 100 IT services providers
  • 26. About this series and the author (Conclusions follow)As the author of this series I’m taking this opportunity to let readers know that I have recently resigned from theWaikato Institute of Technology. Consequently, this is the penultimate ICT trends report.Producing this ICT trend series, one of my ‘official’ research outputs, has given me an immense amount ofsatisfaction, due in no small part, to the feedback and helpful/positive comments from a wide spectrum of ICTorganisations, both here in NZ and overseas.In analysing the ICT statistics from 2000 onwards it became apparent that the industry was heading towards askill shortage abyss. Between 2000 and 2007 enrolments in CS/IS/IT courses dropped 50% across all tertiaryinstitutions in NZ, while the job adverts, reported by the Dept. of Labour, rose by a similar figure. This trend wasworldwide.Enrolments in ICT diploma and degree courses have now risen from the low levels reached in 2007, but are stillwell short of those needed to bridge the skills gap. The medium to long term predictions by a number of wellrespected commentators, in articles published by Gartner and TechRepublic, for example, are for a growing andlargely unsatisfied demand for ICT skills and experience. The gap between the supply of graduates and thegrowth in ICT jobs will be further exacerbated by the demographics of a tsunami of baby boomers moving intoretirement. Governments, businesses and professional organisations will have to continue to develop strategiesto counter this increasing demand. The recent initiatives by IITPNZ, such as ICT-Connect and the survey projectpartnership with AUT provide exemplars to build on.It’s my intention to continue to take a strong interest in the ICT industry and tertiary education. I would like tocontinue my work with the trends report and to take up other opportunities as they arise. Examples includeproducing reports for Tertiary Education Institutions (TEIs); e.g. independent subject expert reports for NZQAcourse approval and accreditation, as well as curriculum development and national moderation.Contact details:Mobile: +64 27 404 9581
  • 27. ConclusionDemand for Skills Globally, the shortage of ICT workers with the necessary skills continues to be discussed, at the same time as many countries, including NZ and Australia, are experiencing a downturn in online ICT job advertisements Governments, ICT industry and professional organisations should continue to focus on the medium to long term demands for skilled ICT workers/professionals. Strategies need to be developed in order to get young people enrolling in ICT qualifications in sufficient numbers to meet this growing demand and to counter the rapidly increasing number of baby boomers moving into retirementIITP – AUT New Zealand ICT Research Project Your active participation and responses will help ensure the success of this project; i.e. in tracking long-term trends and gauging whether various initiatives and projects aimed at attracting smart people into ICT are working
  • 28. What Is the Future of Computers? Peter J Denning - Communications of the ACM journal - "Dont feel bad if you cant predict the future." (About all the people who have tried to do so in the past, and failed) Reference