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Location is Everything talk by Jerry Wilson

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  • Wireless will overtake wired as the dominant broadband platform worldwide in 2011, driving total broadband subscribers worldwide to break the 1 billion barrier
  • Transcript

    • 1. Location is Everything! Cellular, Broadband, and Location Based Services Colloquium Series Computational Transportation Science University of Illinois at Chicago Jerry Wilson 4/2/2009
    • 2. Agenda
      • Beginning Thought
      • A Little Cellular History
      • 3G/4G Transition
      • Industry Activity
      • Cellular Challenges
      • Traffic Paradigm Shift
                  Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013
    • 3. What Your Cell is Teaching Companies
      • Cell phones have become the nuerons in an emerging- and truly global- nervous system
      • MIT Media Lab
      • People are going to be online on cell phones, making location an essential new data point for Google to consider
      • Forester Research
      Newsweek March 2009 Location data will give marketers and advertisers new insights into consumers Sense Networks can craft customer profiles based on where people actually go and what they actually do
    • 4. Agenda
      • Beginning Thought
      • A Little Cellular History
      • 3G/4G Transition
      • IndustryActivity
      • Cellular Challenges
      • Traffic Paradigm Shift
                  Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013
    • 5. 1 st , Let’s Establish Context
    • 6. A Little Cellular History
      • 1980
      • Wide Area Mobile coverage
      • 1983
      • National Footprint
      • 1986
      • Competition, A B Operators
      • 1988
      • Truly Portable Devices
      • 1994
      • Standards-based Roaming
      • 2000
      • Alternative to Wire Line
      • 2003
      • Moving beyond voice
      • 2006
      • Search for Killer App
    • 7. Wireless To Drive Broadband Growth Wireless broadband will overtake fixed as the dominant BB platform in 2011 Source: Future Mobile Broadband report, Informa Telecoms, 3Q 2007 Total broadband subscribers worldwide, 2007-12 - 200 600 1,000 1,400 1,800 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Subscribers (millions) Wireless Wired
    • 8. Not-Voice Applications Grow Fastest
      • Text messaging
      • Ring tones
      • Email
      • Browse Internet
      • Music
      • Rich Messaging
      • Next… Video
      Operators are margins positively impacted by data User experience is limited by bandwidth attributes Next G infrastructure spend climbs
    • 9. Device 101
      • Smaller, Cheaper, Lighter
      • Battery Life and Size
      • Standards Mean Choice and Content!
      • Differentiation Hazards!
      • GSM = $99 phones
      • Impact on WiMAX and LTE
      • Screen Size…Pixels and Pictures
      • BB Suitability…User Experience… Interface ?
    • 10. Factors Changing the Industry
      • GSM becomes defacto Global Standard
      • Ericsson and Nokia Dominate
      • IP Brings new entrants…Cisco
      • Vendor consolidation…
      • Low Cost Asian competitors…Huaweii
      • Operators struggle with margins
      Similar factors impact other industries … Public Safety, Cable Networks … Creating a shift toward converged services and increased competion
    • 11. Agenda
      • Beginning Thought
      • A Little Cellular History
      • 3G/4G Transition
      • Industry Activity
      • Cellular Challenges
      • Traffic Paradigm Shift
                  Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013
    • 12. New Subscribers: No Longer A Key Growth Driver Innovative data services are critical to future operator revenue / profit growth Source: Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, July 2008
    • 13. Broad Band Migration Basics!!!
      • LTE Will Be the Choice of Incumbents
      • WiMAX Chosen By New Entrants/Differentiators
      • Major Metros Deployed First
      • Devices Must Be Dual Mode
      • Devices Sales Will Follow Network
      • New Services Drive Customer Migration
      • Navigation/Location Based Services Will Be a Likely Driver of Network Build Out
      • Blue Tooth and GPS Will Be Critical to LBS Take-Up
      • Network Migrations are Sloppy, not Linear!
    • 14. Agenda
      • Beginning Thought
      • A Little Cellular History
      • 3G/4G Transition
      • Industry Activity
      • Cellular Challenges
      • Traffic Paradigm Shift
                  Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013
    • 15. Now, Let’s Look at Innovation
    • 16. TeleNav Offered Today with Major Operators Considering buying a PND? With easy-to-use GPS navigation right on a mobile phone or smartphone, your team can maximize productivity on and off the road. Say goodbye to asking for directions, printing out online maps, or calling 411
    • 17. PND Faces Overwhelming Pressure
      • Portable Navigation Device Maturing
      • 50Million shipped in 2008
      • GSM Mobile Congress View
      • Replaced by Cell Phone in the next 5-7 years
      • Garmin NuviFone
      • Looking for new revenue streams,
      • building on GPS strength
      Smart Phones Grow 50% vs 11% Overall Market Bigger by 2013/14 than Laptops and PC’s combined
    • 18. Garmin Faces a Tough Fight! UPDATE Sadly, Garmin won’t be launching their GPS-navigation savvy Garmin Nuvifone until 2009. Specific carrier requirements, likely from AT&T have Garmin making changes to the Nuvifone that will delay its launch until 1H 2009. Next
    • 19. Gambling on WiMAX for Early start
      • Sprint has integrated a slew of content and
      • location-based services into its upcoming
      • XOHM WiMax wireless broadband network.
      • Developer friendly, supports all sorts of devices, including laptops, mobile Internet devices, media players, cameras and car navigation.
      • Services Available at Launch
      • uLocate Communications: Access to restaurant reviews, news, events and weather
      • Topix: local news based on current location
      • Google: Local Search and Google Maps
      • Openwave Systems : Platform enables XOHM partners location based services
      • Autodesk : standards-based interface and geospatial services, such as addresses, ZIP code
    • 20.
      • AT&T Navigator
      • What is needed to use AT&T Navigator? Approved mobile device, AT&T network coverage, a monthly subscription or day pass. Also recommend a data rate plan for route information as standard data charges apply.
      • What devices is AT&T Navigator available on? AT&T Tilt, AT&T Quickfire (CTX75), BlackBerry 8110, BlackBerry 8800, BlackBerry 8820, BlackBerry 8310, BlackBerry BOLD, HTC Fuze™, LG CF360, LG CT810 (Incite), Motorola Q9 Global, Motorola Z9, Motorola V9x, Nokia 6650, Pantech C610, Pantech C630, Pantech Matrix™ (C740), Pantech Matrix Pro™, Samsung BlackJack II (i617), Samsung Rugby (A837), Samsung a637, Samsung Epix (i907), Samsung Propel (A767), Samsung A777, Samsung Eternity (a867), Sony Ericsson w760a
      • How much does AT&T Navigator cost? $9.99/month for unlimited access
      • How can the best possible GPS signal be attained?
      • GPS signals need unobstructed view of the sky, do not work indoors; buildings, terrain, heavy foliage, and materials such as metal, concrete, and stone will block GPS signals. Be patient, it may take 2-3 minutes to acquire the first GPS signal of the day.
    • 21. Remember Device 101?
      • Google Maps couldn’t take advantage of the built-in GPS chip in your Verizon BlackBerry Storm.
      • If you unlocked your Verizon Storm, Google Maps worked fine on any other carrier
      • Google has just released an updated version of Google Maps for BlackBerry which supports GPS right out of the, the Storm is the only device with a third party-accessable GPS chip.
    • 22. Agenda
      • Beginning Thought
      • A Little Cellular History
      • 3G/4G Transition
      • Industry Activity
      • Cellular Challenges
      • Traffic Paradigm Shift
                  Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013
    • 23. Rapid Location Based Services Growth
      • Gartner 2/7/08
      • Projects substantial LBS growth by 2011 due to GPS phone and content push driven by Nokia and Google
      LBS Revenue and Subscribers LBS Will Represent 6+% of Total WW Subs by 2011 300 43 16 SubsM 2011 2008 2007 8,000 1,300 485 $M
    • 24. In 2011, Navigation is Top LBS Application ABI Research
      • At the GSM Mobile World Congress World they were saying Cell Phones would replace PNDs within the next 5-7 years
      • If Smart Phones shipments continue to grow at 50+% annually, by 2016 they will outnumber the combined WW total of both PCs and Laptops
    • 25. Gartner Mobile technologies to watch in 2009 &10
      • Bluetooth 3.0 — The Bluetooth 3.0 specification will be released in 2009 (at which point its feature set will be frozen), with devices starting to arrive around 2010.
      • Location Sensing — Location awareness makes mobile applications more powerful and useful; in the future, location will be a key component of contextual applications. Location sensing will also enhance systems, such as mobile presence and mobile social networking.
      • Display Technologies — Displays constrain many characteristics of both mobile devices and applications. During 2009 and 2010, several new display technologies will impact the marketplace, including active pixel displays, passive displays and pico projectors.
      • Mobile Web and Widgets — It has some limitations that will not be addressed by 2010 (for example, there will be no universal standards for browser access to handset services, such as the camera or GPS).
    • 26. Bluetooth: Gaiting Factor to App Take-Up
      • Bluetooth attach rate with mobile handsets will continue to grow, climbing beyond 70% by 2012
      • IDC: Bluetooth revenue to double by 2012
      • Revenue for Bluetooth semiconductors will double in the next three years growing from $1.7 billion worldwide to $3.3 billion
      • Bluetooth headsets are the next big opportunity as safety concerns spur the interest in hands-free mobile phone use.
      • Another trend beginning to manifest, according to the study, is the integration of radio, smartphone and other connection platforms with Bluetooth devices.
      • 12/08 IDC
    • 27. GPS Limitations
      • Unlike the well known GPS tracking devices used by hikers, mariners and drivers, most cell phone GPS tracking systems are more basic and do not allow the user to enter data. The FCC now requires that all cell phone carriers must be able to trace the location of cell phone calls to within a range of no more than 100 meters.
      •  
      • Cellular GPS uses AGPS (Assisted Global Positioning System) a combination of both cell phone towers and satellites as location finders.
      •  
    • 28. Moving Past GPS 4G Applications Solutions need to be accurate to within tens of meters , make a Time to First Fix (TTFF) in under five seconds and work seamlessly across urban, suburban, rural, indoor and outdoor environments. Hybrid Approach Using multiple technologies will provide the accuracy, latency, reliability, yield needed for 4G networks. Assisted GPS (A-GPS), Enhanced Cell-ID (ECID), Uplink Time Difference of Arrival (UTDOA) Wireless Location Signatures (WLS) Open Mobile Alliance (OMA) A broad group of wireless carriers, software developers, device and network suppliers and content and service providers
    • 29. Agenda
      • Beginning Thought
      • A Little Cellular History
      • 3G/4G Transition
      • Industry Activity
      • Cellular Challenges
      • Traffic Paradigm Shift
                  Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013             Source: ABI Research                         Predictive Traffic Users by Use Case               Chart 1-1 World Markets, 2008 to 2013
    • 30. Internet Advertising Explodes Internet Advertising to Double $25.5B 2007 to $51.1B 2012 IDC 5/28/08 WHY? My Time -what they want -when they want Sony Digital Media Entertainment 8X’s Faster Than Advertising as a Whole 1-Direct Marketing 2-Internet (from 5 th ) 3-Broadcast TV 4-CableTV 5-Newspapers
    • 31. Location Adds Value! Location Based Advertising -targeted communities -Add’l $’s for LBS vendors -free funded navigation Mass Broadcast Choice Internet Information Location
    • 32. Big Names Eye Mobile Marketing!
      • Google, Inc.
      • Yahoo!
      • OgilvyInteractive
      • MediaVest USA
      • VeriSign
      • Fox Mobile Group
      • Nokia
      • T-Mobile USA
      • SinglePoint
      • R/GA
      • Verizon
      • Alltel Wireless
      • Limbo Inc.
      • MTV Networks
      • CBS Corp.
      • Bain Capital Ventures
      • mBlox
      • 1024 Wireless Services
      • AT&T - Converged Services
      • The Weather Channel
      • Isobar
      4G JobTitles Global mobile monetization Digital Innovation Mobile Media Mobile Brand Strategy Mobile Advertising
    • 33. Beyond the Traffic Market Location Broadand Giants Applications-Google, Microsoft, Yahoo TrafficCast a target? Mass Market Devices-Apple, RIM/Blackberry, Nokia Garmin’s challenge Revenue Extraction The user is information
    • 34. Last Thoughts
      • Standards
      • User Base
      • Bandwidth
      • Uniquely mobile applications
      • Revenue extraction
      • User experience/willingness to pay
      • The Power of “Where”
      Putting Innovation In Context Mitigates Risk

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