Mobile Technologies Network Migration Paul S Dittner, Analyst Jason Chapman, Principal Analyst King-Yew Foong, Principal Analyst September 30, 2003
Wireless Network Migration
GSM Network Migration
CDMA Network Migration
IMT 2000 and 3G
Access Technologies Comparison
WCDMA Deployment in Western Europe
Generic Mobile Network Switching Centres Radio Access Network PSTN/ISDN
GSM Mobile Network Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) Base Station Controllers (BSC) Mobile Switching Centre (MSC) PSTN/ISDN Fixed Networks Access Network Core Network
GSM Mobile Network Migration - GPRS PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS Gateway GPRS Support Node (GGSN) Serving GPRS Support Node (SGSN) Packet Control Units (PCU) IP Network Internet Software upgrade to BTS to support GPRS
UMTS & GSM Networks PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS GGSN SGSN IP Network Internet UMSC Radio Network Controllers (RNC) Node Bs
CDMAOne Mobile Network Base Transceiver Stations (BTS) Access Network Core Network Base Station Controllers (BSC) Mobile Switching Centre (MSC) PSTN/ISDN Fixed Networks
CDMA Mobile Network Migration - cdma2000 1X PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS Inter Working Function (IWF) Packet Data Support Node (PDSN) New channel cards in BTS IP Network Internet Software upgrade to BTS to support 1X
CDMA2000 1X EV PSTN/ISDN MSC BSC BTS IWF PDSN New 1X EV channel cards in BTS IP Network Internet
Quarter 1 2003 2004 2005 W-CDMA Launches By Country Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter4
Truly Commercial W-CDMA Networks
Australia 3 (Hutchison 3G)
Austria 3 (Hutchison 3G)
Italy 3 (Hutchison 3G)
Japan Foma (NTT DoCoMo)
Sweden 3 (Hutchison 3G)
UK 3 (Hutchison 3G)
Netherlands Sweden Italy Austria Germany Luxembourg Belgium Finland Greece Spain France Switzerland Portugal Norway Denmark Australia Hong Kong Japan Ireland UK Czech Rep Poland
Quarter 1 2003 2004 2005 W-CDMA Commercial Launches By Country in Asia Pacific Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter4 Quarter 1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Quarter4 2006 +
GSM/GPRS operators with 3G licenses:
Migrate to W-CDMA.
GSM/GPRS operators operating in markets where 3G licenses have yet to be awarded or GSM/GPRS operators who failed to secure 3G licenses:
Migrate to EDGE. Likely candidates are Peoples (Hong Kong), DiGi.com (Malaysia), DTAC (Thailand), Smart (Philippines), and Globe Telecom (Philippines).
CdmaOne operators or those with existing AMPS spectrum:
Migrate to CDMA2000 1x e.g., China Unicom (1Q 2003), Telstra (Dec 2002), Telecom New Zealand (Jul 2002), au (Apr 2002), KTF (May 2001), LGT (Apr 2001), SKT (Oct 2000).
TD-SCDMA Commercial Prospects Likely to be a niche technology in China, overlaid onto existing GSM network. Commercial in 2005. Asia Pacific Wireless Services Deployment Australia Hong Kong New Zealand South Korea China Singapore Thailand Indonesia Philippines Malaysia India Taiwan Commercial CDMA2000 1x by New Entrants: Hutchison CAT Wireless Multimedia (Feb 2003) Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless (Jul 2003) Pre-2003 W-CDMA Commercial Launches: NTT DoCoMo (FOMA) Oct 2001 J-Phone (Vodafone Global Standard) Dec 2002
Wireless Services Evolution in South Korea 2000 2002 2003 2001 CDMA2000 1x commercial service, 1 Oct 2000 CDMA2000 1x commercial service, May 2001 CDMA2000 1x EV-DO commercial service, May 2002 2004 VOD Service BREW service (MultiPack) W-CDMA Service (likely in Nov 2003) W-CDMA Service (likely in 2H2003) CDMA2000 1x EV-DV Service (?) CDMA2000 1x EV-DV Service (?) Merger of 2G and 3G operators
When W-CDMA services start, KTF and SKT will have four different networks: IS95A/B, CDMA2000 1x, CDMA2000 1x EV-DO, and W-CDMA.
The target market for CDMA2000 1x EV-DO and W-CDMA will overlap.
Carriers want to postpone investment in W-CDMA as long as possible. However, considering regulator's concern and carriers' propensity to invest, migration to W-CDMA will happen from 2005 quickly.