Nielsen - Q3 2013 global consumer confidence report - November 2013

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Nielsen - Q3 2013 global consumer confidence report - November 2013

  1. 1. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE Concerns and Spending Intentions Around the World QUARTER 3, 2013 2013 CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SERIES | 3Rd EDITION
  2. 2. A CHANGING L ANDSCAPE Consumer confidence improved in the U.S. and western Europe, WHILE HOLDING Steady in Most Developing World Markets Global consumer confidence indexed at 94 in the third quarter, no change from Q2 2013, and a two-point increase from the same period last year (Q3 2012), according to consumer confidence findings from Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and insights into what consumers watch and buy. The Nielsen consumer confidence index measures perceptions of local job prospects, personal finances and immediate spending intentions. Consumer confidence in Europe increased three index points to 74, the biggest quarter-on-quarter increase since Q1 2010 and an improvement from three consecutive quarters fixed at 71. Confidence in North America increased two index points to 98, the third consecutive quarter of increases and hit its highest level since Q3 2007. Marginal consumer confidence increases were reported in Latin America and Middle East/ Africa, increasing one index point each to 94 and 92, respectively, compared to Q2. Confidence in Asia-Pacific declined one index point to 104, the first regional quarter-on-quarter decline since Q2 2012. GLOBALLY • Global consumer confidence held steady in Q3 with an index of 94 Regionally • • European confidence posted biggest increase in three years • North American and Asia-Pacific respondents were ready to spend • 2 Quarterly confidence increased in all regions except Asia-Pacific Recessionary sentiment improved in advanced and troubled economies Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  3. 3. CONFIDENCE IMPROVED IN 57% OF MARKETS The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions, established in 2005, measures consumer confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among more than 30,000 respondents with Internet access in 60 countries. Consumer confidence levels above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism and pessimism. In the latest round of the survey, conducted between August 14 and September 6, 2013, consumer confidence increased in more than half (57%) of markets measured by Nielsen, compared to less than half (45%) in the previous quarter. Despite declining four index points, Indonesia (120) reported the highest consumer confidence index for the third consecutive quarter. Seven of 10 countries reporting the highest index scores declined in the third quarter; six hailed from Asia-Pacific. Hungary reported the lowest index of 45, but posted a four-point increase from Q2. Portugal reported the biggest quarter-on-quarter index increase of 22 points for a score of 55. ABOUT THE GLOBAL SURVEY METHODOLOGY The findings in this survey are based on respondents with online access across 60 countries. While an online survey methodology allows for tremendous scale and global reach, it provides a perspective only on the habits of existing Internet users, not total populations. In developing markets where online penetration has not reached majority potential, audiences may be younger and more affluent than the general population of that country. Additionally, survey responses are based on claimed behavior, rather than actual metered data. Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 3
  4. 4. GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY 60 COUNTRIES – 3-MONTH TREND Q3-2013 NIELSEN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX +6 0 +1 +4 -4 IND -3 EX -6 ES AB -2 CO NF LES S -5 -1 +1 NTRY 120 INDO 118 NESI A PHI 112 LIPP INE IND 112 S 111 TH IA AI 11 UN LAN 0 D CH ITED IN AR A AB EM IR AT ES HE +1 +8 -1 NORTH AMERICA 0 +12 LATIN AMERICA +1 +9 +1 EUROPE -1 +6 -3 +3 +6 -2 +3 +2 0 -1 97 CANADA 97 SA UDI AR ABIA 97 VIET NAM 97 NEW 96 ZEA NO LAN 96 RW D 95 AU AY ST 94 CH RA LIA PE ILE RU ( 0 change from Q2-2013 ) NE T +5 A -1 COU GLOBAL AVERAGE VE N -4 0 IL NG AZ KO BR NG K O 9 AR 10 6 H ENM SIA D 10 LAY 3 10 MA ORE GAP 101 SIN ATES 98 ED ST UNIT 98 D ZERLAN 98 SWIT 97 PAKISTAN Y AN RM O GE IC EX L M 92 AE IA ISR 88 M STR GDO 88 AU KIN 87 TED UNI Y 87 URKE 85 T A TH AFRIC 84 SOU 84 COLOMBIA +2 INDEX 94 EZ UE RL AN LA DS RU 76 SS AR 78 IA GE NT INA 80 LITH UAN 80 IA BELG 81 IUM 81 SWEDEN 82 EGYPT 83 +4 IC M +3 D IS +2 IN IM MO RE CO N T EN ID NT DE FI +8 54 BI 55 A AIN 56 RA 56 INE SLO 59 VAK IA 60 FRAN CE 61 BULGAR IA 63 POLAND 66 ROMANIA 66 D 68 FINLAN 69 AND 72 IREL LIC 2 PUB A 7 RE NI 74 CH O CZE N EST 76 PA 76 JA A VI T LA AN IW TA UK SP CE A AL VE EE GR RE ER UG TIA RT **S KO -13 H PO OA UT CR SO +8 +4 PT LO 0 -2 5 Y 4 GAR 47 HUN LY ITA 47 NIA 48 48 **S +22 00 O +3 E1 TE +3 OV +4 +8 0 -1 -3 +2 +4 -2 -2 +1 -5 +2 +5 +4 MIDDLE EAST, AFRICA, PAKISTAN ASIA-PACIFIC *Survey is based on respondents with Internet access. China survey results reflect a mixed methodology. Index levels above and below 100 indicate degrees of optimism/pessimism. **Serbia and Slovenia are new markets in Q3 2013. 4 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  5. 5. CONFIDENCE IN ADVANCED ECONOMIES IMPROVED In key developed economies, the United States saw consumer confidence increase eight index points to 98 from the same period 12 months ago, its highest score in six years (Q3 2007) and nearing prerecession levels. Germany increased six index points year-on-year to 92. Japan rose to an index of 74 from 59 in Q3 2012. France increased eight points to 61 from 53 in Q2 2013, and the United Kingdom reported an index of 87, the highest score since Q3 2007, up 10 points from Q3 2012. While consumers in India and Brazil remain some of the most confident in the world, confidence in these key growth economies continues to show modest downward movement over the last few quarters. India delivered a score of 112 for its third consecutive quarter of declines, and confidence in Brazil declined one index point to 109. China and Russia both held steady from Q2 2013 with index scores of 110 and 80, respectively. “Given the size and scale of these economies, it is encouraging to see significant gains in consumer confidence within the United States and Western Europe as we consider where we were last year and look ahead to 2014,” said Dr. Venkatesh Bala, chief economist at The Cambridge Group, a part of Nielsen. “At the same time, we have to keep modest developing market declines in perspective. While India is significantly off peak optimism of 131 measured three years ago in 2010, it is still one of the largest and most confident countries in the world, and that has an impact on the entire region.” Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 5
  6. 6. ADVANCED Economies: CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS RECOVERING 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 UNITED STATES GERMANY 2013-Q2 2013-Q3 2013-Q1 2012-Q4 2012-Q2 UNITED KINGDOM 2012-Q3 2012-Q1 2011-Q4 2011-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q1 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2009-Q1 2009-Q2 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3 2006-Q3 2006-Q1 2005-Q3 2005-Q1 40 JAPAN FRANCE * Note: Due to a Tsunami in Japan during Q1 2011, there is no data this quarter. BRIC Economies: Consumer Confidence is Slowing 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 INDIA CHINA BRAZIL 2013-Q3 2013-Q2 2013-Q1 2012-Q4 2012-Q3 2012-Q2 2012-Q1 2011-Q4 2011-Q3 2011-Q2 2011-Q1 2010-Q4 2010-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q1 2009-Q4 2009-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q1 2008-Q3 2008-Q1 2007-Q3 2007-Q1 2006-Q3 2006-Q1 2005-Q3 2005-Q1 60 RUSSIA Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only 6 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  7. 7. Ready to Spend Nielsen information shows that around the world, discretionary spending intentions increased across all categories measured in the third quarter compared to intentions from three months prior. Plans to buy new clothes (38%), spend on holidays/vacations (38%), out-of-home entertainment (35%) and home improvements (25%) increased 5 percentage points each in the third quarter. Intentions to buy new technology products (29%) increased 4 percentage points compared to Q2. An intention to spend was most evident in Asia-Pacific and North America, where discretionary spending intentions increased across all categories. Plans to spend on holidays, new clothes, out-of-home entertainment, new technology products and home improvements increased an average of 7 percentage points in the third quarter. “In line with confidence findings, it is not surprising to see that consumers are planning to increase their spending across all industries measured, which will be encouraging to many retailers as they get ready for the endof-year holiday season,” said Dr. Bala. “However, it’s going to be a slow climb for economic conditions in the global economy to recover, and there is no sign of rapid expansion around the corner. Additionally, it remains to be seen if consumer concerns potentially caused by the recent U.S. government shutdown and debt ceiling crisis will have a lasting effect on consumer confidence.” Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 7
  8. 8. Q3 2013 Intentions to Spend Increased, And So Did Actions to Save INDIA CHINA UNITED STATES Percent spending spare cash Percent taking actions to save + PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 _ 61% 43% 31% 38% +7 +14 21% 29% + PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 _ +11 +9 +3 50% 47% +5 -5 +7 +3 43% 45% 59% 51% +5 +2 36% 35% +7 +2 37% 35% HOLIDAYS/ VACATIONS +7 +9 +5 +3 29% 41% 33% 33% OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT +4 -1 +4 0 46% 37% 56% 48% +4 62% 42% 29% 38% NEW CLOTHES +5 +2 NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS +10 +10 +7 +5 64% 28% +12 -10 24% 35% GLOBAL AVERAGE +2 +5 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only 8 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  9. 9. Saving, Investing and Paying Down Debt Were Priorities Around the world, plans to save for the future saw buoyant increases, with 52 percent of all respondents putting spare cash into savings, and 25 percent investing in shares of stocks and mutual funds, a quarterly increase of 5 and 6 percentage points, respectively. Investment sentiment increased in 57 percent of all markets measured, with marked increases and a return to pre-recession levels in China (56%), India (34%) and the United States (14%), up 14, 9 and 7 percentage points, respectively, compared to Q2. Paying off debts, credit cards and loans was the priority for 28 percent of all respondents, an increase from 25 percent in the second quarter. Fourin-10 (38%) North Americans said they intend to pay off debts, a quarterly increase of 7 percentage points. One-third (34%) of Latin American respondents focused on debt reduction, a decline of 3 percentage points compared to Q2. One-fourth of Asia-Pacific (25%) and Europe (26%) respondents, and one-fifth (18%) of Middle East/Africa respondents planned to reduce their outstanding bills in the third quarter. Saving for retirement was most pronounced in Asia-Pacific (20%) and North America (16%), reporting quarterly increases of 6 and 5 percentage points, respectively. Respondents in China (25%) and India (27%) exceeded the regional average for planning ahead for their golden years, reporting increases of 10 and 8 percentage points, respectively, compared to three months ago. Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 9
  10. 10. Investment Sentiment Brightened in Q3 Percent utilizing spare cash for investing in shares of stock/mutual funds 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 INDIA 2013-Q3 2013-Q1 2013-Q2 2012-Q3 2012-Q4 2012-Q1 2012-Q2 2011-Q3 2011-Q4 2011-Q1 GLOBAL 2011-Q2 2010-Q3 2010-Q4 2010-Q1 2010-Q2 2009-Q3 2009-Q4 2009-Q1 CHINA 2009-Q2 2008-Q1 2008-Q3 2007-Q1 2007-Q3 2006-Q1 2006-Q3 2005-Q1 2005-Q3 0 UNITED STATES Saving, Investing and Planning for Retirement Were Growing Priorities Percent spending spare cash (CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2) SAVINGS PAYING OFF DEBTS, CREDIT CARDS, LOANS +5 52% | Global Average +3 28% | Global Average +10 71% | China +7 27% | China +13 66% | India +7 32% | India +4 43% | United States +8 38% | United States INVESTING IN SHARES OF STOCK/MUTUAL FUNDS RETIREMENT FUND +6 25% | Global Average +3 14% | Global Average +14 56% | China +10 25% | China +9 34% | India +8 27% | India +7 14% | United States +6 16% | United States Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only 10 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  11. 11. Recession Still on the Minds of Many More than half (58%) of global respondents believed they were still in a recession in the third quarter, a three-point quarterly increase, but a four-point decline from 12 months ago. Recessionary-sentiment improvements were reported in key economies with year-over-year, double-digit declines. The United Kingdom measured a decline of 18 percentage points to 74 percent, the United States declined 13 points to 68 percent, Germany decreased 12 points to 46 percent, and China, declined 13 points to 26 percent. While the overwhelming majority of respondents in Italy (97%), Ireland (93%), Greece (90%), Spain (89%) and Portugal (88%) still felt mired in recession, each reported improvements. Portugal reported a recessionary sentiment decline of 9 percentage points in the third quarter from a three-year average at 97 percent, and Spain declined 5 percentage points quarterly from a three-year average at 92 percent. Conversely, double-digit quarterly recessionary sentiment increases were reported in India, Brazil and Indonesia. Three-quarters of Indian respondents (76%) said they were in a recession in the third quarter, an increase of 25 percentage points from Q2. More than half of Brazilians (55%) felt mired in recession, a rise of 14 percentage points, and 65 percent of Indonesians believed they were in recession, an increase of 11 percentage points. Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 11
  12. 12. Biggest Improvement IN Year-Over-Year Recessionary Sentiment Percent believing they are in a recession 2012 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2012 TO Q3 2013 100% UNITED KINGDOM 2013 2012 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2012 TO Q3 2013 74% 92% -18 100% HONG KONG UNITED KINGDOM 2013 60% PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q3 2012 TO Q3 2013 43% 92% -17 74% 2012 -18 100% LITHUANIA HONG KONG UNITED KINGDOM UNITED STATES LITHUANIA HONG KONG CHINA UNITED STATES LITHUANIA NEW ZEALAND CHINA UNITED STATES NEWGERMANY ZEALAND CHINA GERMANY NEW ZEALAND 57% 43% 74% 68% 57% 43% 26% 68% 57% 53% 26% 68% 46% 53% 26% 46% 53% 2013 70% 60% 92% 81% 70% 60% 39% 81% 70% 65% 39% 81% 58% 65% 39% 58% 65% -13 -17 -18 -13 -17 -13 -13 -13 -12 -13 -13 -12 -13 -12 -12 46% 58% -12 GERMANY Biggest Improvement IN Quarterly Recessionary Sentiment Percent believing they are in a recession Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100% DENMARK Q3 Q2 48% 57% PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 -9 100% PORTUGAL DENMARK Q3 Q2 88% 97% 48% 57% PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 -9 -9 100% Q3 FRANCE PORTUGAL DENMARK AUSTRIA FRANCE PORTUGAL BELGIUM AUSTRIA FRANCE UNITED KINGDOM BELGIUM AUSTRIA UNITEDLITHUANIA KINGDOM BELGIUM LITHUANIA ARGENTINA UNITED KINGDOM SPAIN ARGENTINA LITHUANIA SPAIN ARGENTINA 84% 88% 48% 49% 84% 88% 74% 49% 84% 74% 74% 49% 57% 74% 74% 57% 76% 74% 89% 76% 57% 89% 76% 92% 97% 57% 57% 92% 97% 82% 57% 92% 81% 82% 57% 63% 81% 82% 63% 81% 81% 94% 81% 63% 94% 81% -8 -9 -9 -8 -9 -8 -8 -8 -7 -8 -8 -6 -7 -8 -6 -5 -7 -5 -6 -5 -5 SPAIN 89% 94% -5 Q3 Q2 PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 100% JAPAN Q3 74% Q2 37% PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 +37 100% 100% Biggest WORSENING Recessionary Sentiment Percent believing they are in a recession INDIA JAPAN Q3 76% 74% Q2 51% 37% PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2 TO Q3 2013 +25 +37 LATVIA INDIA JAPAN BRAZIL LATVIA INDIA THAILAND BRAZIL LATVIA PERU THAILAND BRAZIL INDONESIA PERU THAILAND INDONESIA SOUTH AFRICA PERU SOUTH AFRICA INDONESIA 60% 76% 74% 55% 60% 76% 79% 55% 60% 45% 79% 55% 65% 45% 79% 65% 77% 45% 77% 65% 45% 51% 37% 41% 45% 51% 66% 41% 45% 33% 66% 41% 54% 33% 66% 54% 67% 33% 67% 54% +15 +25 +37 +14 +15 +25 +13 +14 +15 +12 +13 +14 +11 +12 +13 +11 +10 +12 +10 +11 SOUTH AFRICA 77% 67% +10 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only 12 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  13. 13. Positive Confidence Momentum Continues in the U.S.; Canada Declines Consumer confidence in the United States increased steadily over the past three quarters from an index of 89 in the fourth quarter of 2012 to 98 in the third quarter of this year. Conversely, confidence in Canada reported the opposite trend, measuring two consecutive quarters of declines, from an index of 102 in Q1 to 98 in Q2 to 97 in Q3. North America led the strongest regional quarterly increases for optimistic perceptions about local job prospects (47%), personal finances (58%) and a good time to buy (43%), rising 5, 4 and 2 percentage points, respectively, compared to the second quarter, driven by improvements in the United States. In Canada, the outlook for job prospects and plans to spend declined by 1 percentage point each, and personal finances held steady compared to the second quarter. The growing positive sentiment in the Unites States was reflected in American’s increased spending intentions. Home improvement projects reported the biggest quarterly increase of 8 percentage points to 24 percent in the third quarter. Plans to take holidays and vacations also measured a 7-point increase to 29 percent. Spending intentions for new clothes (31%), out-of-home entertainment (24%) and new technology products (21%) reported quarterly increases of 3, 2 and 2 percentage points, respectively. “With U.S. inflation in check, confidence is now at the highest levels since 2007 giving consumers enough tailwinds to keep momentum moving forward, which may bode well for the upcoming holiday season,” said James Russo, senior vice president, Global Consumer Insights, Nielsen. “Fast-moving consumer goods dollar sales are up 2.1 percent year to date, and unit sales reversed a negative trend, now up 0.4 percent. However, residual effects from the government shutdown, debt ceiling, an uneven recovery, and the overall uncertainty that permeates the consumer mindset will likely curtail robust gains in sales.” Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 13
  14. 14. SENTIMENT FOR JOBS, FINANCES AND SHOPPING WERE POSITIVE IN THE U.S. Percent saying good/excellent in the next 12 months UNITED STATES Local Job Prospects Percentage Point Change from Q2 2013 +5 CANADA Percentage Point Change from Q2 2013 50% -1 56% 0 41% 46% -1 Personal Finances +4 58% Time To Buy +2 44% UNITED STATES Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only 14 CANADA Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  15. 15. RecessionBattered Europe Showed Signs of Recovery Consumer Confidence Improved in 70% of European Countries Measured Q3 INDEX (CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2) +22 55 | Portugal +9 81 | Belgium +8 87 | United Kingdom Consumer confidence index scores were highest in Denmark (103), Switzerland (98), Norway (96) and Germany (92), and most improved in Portugal (55), Belgium (81), United Kingdom (87), France (61), Spain (56) and Italy (47), compared to Q2. +8 61 | France +8 56 | Spain +6 +6 103 | Denmark 47 | Italy “German consumers were optimistic in the third quarter, which was noteworthy given the survey was fielded during the phase of election campaigns where cost-critical topics such as tax increases, the rescue of the euro, and energy costs may have played an important role,” said Ingo Shier, managing director, Nielsen Germany. “Rather than take a pessimistic view of the future, it appears that Germans remained somewhat unaffected by the political environment as fundamental economic data were likely perceived as robust. As the development of coalition talks continue, however, consumer confidence sentiment will be closely monitored.” +5 88 | Israel +5 76 | Latvia +4 85 | Turkey +4 66 | Romania +4 45 | Hungary +3 66 | Poland +3 48 | Croatia +2 92 | Germany +2 72 | Czech Republic +2 63 | Bulgaria +1 82 | Sweden +1 81 | Lithuania +1 72 | Estonia +1 48 | Greece 0 98 | Switzerland 0 87 | Austria 0 80 | Russia -1 78 | Netherlands -1 69 | Ireland -2 96 | Norway -2 60 | Slovakia -5 68 | Finland Seventy percent of European markets reported consumer confidence increases in the third quarter as improvements across all confidence indicators showed positive, albeit marginal, regional momentum. Positive perceptions about local job prospects (26%), personal finances (36%) and a good time to buy (29%) increased 2, 1 and 2 percentage points, respectively, compared to the second quarter. On average, European discretionary spending intentions for new clothes, holiday/vacations, out-of-home entertainment, home improvements and new technology products reported marginal improvements in the third quarter, which were aligned with a slight retraction in strategies taken to save across these categories. -13 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only * Slovenia and Serbia were not included in Q2 2013 Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 59 | Ukraine * 47 | Slovenia * 56 | Serbia 15
  16. 16. Good news was reported among Europe’s most troubled economies, with consumer confidence increases in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. In addition to Portugal’s double-digit confidence boost of 22 index points, other hard-hit austerity markets showed increased optimism. Spain’s index increased eight points to 56, Italy rose six points to 47, and Greece inched up one point to 48. Despite a one-point quarterly confidence decline in Ireland, an index score of 69 was a threepoint improvement from one year ago. “In Portugal, second quarter GDP results reported an improvement after 10 consecutive quarters of declines, which has likely ushered some confidence back to consumers,” said Gustavo Nunez, market leader, Nielsen Iberia. “But while recent employment figures, which have improved after two years of declines, have possibly elevated consumer sentiment, discussion about a second rescue and the potential for new austerity measures may impact this optimism.” Troubled Economies: Consumer Confidence is Improving 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 IRELAND SPAIN PORTUGAL GREECE 2013-Q3 2013-Q2 2013-Q1 2012-Q4 2012-Q3 2012-Q2 2012-Q1 2011-Q4 2011-Q3 2011-Q2 2011-Q1 2010-Q4 2010-Q3 2010-Q1 2009-Q3 2009-Q1 2008-Q3 2008-Q1 2007-Q3 2007-Q1 2006-Q3 2006-Q1 2005-Q3 2005-Q1 20 ITALY Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q2 2013 Based on respondents with online access only. 16 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  17. 17. Consumer Confidence in Asia-Pacific Declined, But Intentions to Spend Increased Overall consumer confidence in Asia-Pacific took a negative turn in the third quarter, declining one index point regionally to 104, which was the highest index of the five regions. Eight of the 14 countries measured in the region posted a consumer confidence index decline, with India (112), Japan (74) and Indonesia (120) decreasing most with declines of six, four and four points, respectively, compared to Q2. China’s index of 110 held steady from the second quarter. The outlook for job prospects and personal finances declined in half of the Asia-Pacific markets measured. The steepest job prospect quarterly declines were reported in India and Japan, declining 10 and 8 percentage points, respectively. Perceptions of personal finances declined most in India and Indonesia, with declines of 4 percentage points each, compared to Q2. More Asia-Pacific respondents felt mired in a recession (47%) in the third quarter, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to Q2. While respondents in the region were cautious about future job prospects and personal finances, their intentions to spend on discretionary indulgences were more optimistic. Half of regional respondents planned to spend on holidays/vacations (50%), new clothes (46%) and out-of-home entertainment (45%), up 7 percentage points each from Q2. Spending on new technology (40%) and home improvements (30%) increased 6 and 7 percentage points, respectively. Increased spending intentions in India and China exceeded the regional average for all categories. “The devaluation of the Indian rupee, the decreasing GDP, and negative news coverage on the economy has most probably contributed vastly to the low levels of confidence for consumers in India in the third quarter,” said Piyush Mathur, president, Nielsen India. “However, consumers are still willing to spend more in the festival season. Festival time involves high consumption on travel, gifts, new clothes and entertaining.” Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 17
  18. 18. “Although consumers are acutely aware of the economic pressures, manufacturers and retailers activate deals and discounts during this festive time period to give consumers more value for the money, which helps to ease their spending concerns,” continued Mathur. “The combination of the Chinese government’s domestic consumptionled growth strategy, and the continued recovery and growth of the U.S. economy, China’s largest export market, has likely contributed to the optimism among Chinese consumers,” said Yan Xuan, president, Nielsen Greater China. “Looking to the future, we believe stepped up expansion by both multi-national and local Chinese companies into lower tier cities and the rural markets will further bolster consumer confidence levels in these parts of the country.” Consumer Confidence Declined in 57% of Asia-Pacific Countries Measured q3 2013 Consumer Confidence Index (CIRCLES DENOTE PERCENTAGE POINT CHANGE FROM Q2) DECREASE INCREASE no CHANGE Malaysia 120 Indonesia JAPAN 74 Philippines 118 112 Thailand Malaysia AUSTRALIA Hong Kong -6 New Zealand 97 +4 -4 Singapore 98 +3 -4 112 India South Korea -3 Vietnam -2 TAIWAN 101 -2 +3 97 +2 76 +1 -2 96 54 106 China 110 0 -1 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only 18 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  19. 19. L atin Americans Showed Eagerness to Spend Consumer confidence in Latin America increased one index point in the third quarter to a score of 94. Brazil led the region with the highest index of 109, which decreased for the second consecutive quarter with a one point decline compared to Q2. The biggest quarter-on-quarter index increases were reported in Argentina (80) and Venezuela (76), which increased 12 and eight index points, respectively. Consumer confidence in Mexico (88) and Chile (95) increased four and one index point(s), respectively in the third quarter. Peru (94) and Colombia (84) declined five and three index points, respectively. “In Brazil, inflation pressure remains high and GDP growth remains low, which is likely eroding consumer confidence,” said Eduardo Ragasol, country manager, Nielsen Brazil. “Riots and demonstrations are the most visible result of the stressful situation lived by many low- and medium-income consumers who are feeling the pressure of past debts and price increases.” “In Argentina, the surge in consumer confidence is attributed to a series of government measures launched to activate consumption,” said Martha Lucia Giraldo, country manager, Nielsen Argentina. “In essence, employees are now paying less taxes and retirees are getting more income. This action affected a significant percentage of employees who have benefited from the increased purchasing power. And it is evident at retail—according to Nielsen shopping basket trends, retail consumption has grown 6.8 percent in the year ending July 2013.” Regionally, discretionary spending increases were reported across most spending categories measured. Spending plans for new clothes (29%) increased four percentage points, and intent to spend on out-of-home entertainment (30%) and holidays/vacations (20%) increased by 3 percentage points each compared to Q2. Spending on new technology (19%) and home improvement projects (18%) inched up by 1 percentage point each. DISCRETIONARY SPENDING INCREASED IN LATIN AMERICA percent utilizing spare cash after covering essential living expenses Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Malaysia OUT-OF-HOME ENTERTAINMENT NEW CLOTHES 27% 27% 27% 30% 27% 30% 30% 30% 25% 25% 25% 29% 25% 29% 29% 29% HOLIDAYS/VACATIONS 17% 17% 17% 20% 17% 20% 20% 20% NEW TECHNOLOGY PRODUCTS 18% 18% 18% 19% 18% 19% 19% 19% HOME IMPROVEMENTS/ 17% 17% DECORATING 17% 18% 17% 18% 18% 18% Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 19
  20. 20. Consumer Confidence Held Steady in the Middle East/ Africa Region Consumer Confidence Increased in 3 of 5 Middle East/Africa Countries Measured Consumer Confidence Index INCREASE FROM Q2 2013 DECREASE FROM Q2 2013 Malaysia EGYPT Consumer confidence increased in three of five Middle East/Africa markets, increasing the regional average by one index point in the third quarter to 92. Egypt (83) reported the biggest three-month increase of six index points, followed by a rise of four points in United Arab Emirates (111), and three points in South Africa (84). Confidence declines were reported in Saudi Arabia (97) and Pakistan (97), which declined three and one point(s), respectively. “Drastic changes over the past three years in Egypt have impacted the pockets of Egyptians,” said Tamer Elaraby, managing director, Nielsen Egypt. “After the revolution in January 2011, there was a spending slow down due to job losses and a lack of clarity amid the tumultuous environment. Despite the scarcity of jobs and low wages, however, Egyptians are optimistic by nature and are hopeful that a new regime will bring them social justice and freedom, which is likely translating to improved consumer confidence results reported in the third quarter.” Discretionary spending intentions increased marginally in the third quarter, with plans to buy new clothes (27%) increasing most by 3 percentage points, compared to Q2. Spending on out-of-home entertainment (22%) and new technology (19%) increased 2 percentage points each. Plans to take holidays/vacations (17%) and conduct home improvements projects (16%) declined 1 percentage point each. +6 83 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 111 +4 SOUTH AFRICA +3 84 SAUDI ARABIA -3 97 PAKISTAN -1 97 Source: Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence, Q3 2013 Based on respondents with online access only 20 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report
  21. 21. MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION MARKET INTERNET PENETRATION ARGENTINA 66% MALAYSIA 61% AUSTRALIA 89% MEXICO 37% AUSTRIA 80% NETHERLANDS 93% BELGIUM 81% NEW ZEALAND 88% BRAZIL 46% NORWAY 97% BULGARIA 51% PAKISTAN 15% CANADA 83% PERU 37% CHILE 59% PHILIPPINES 32% CHINA 40% POLAND 65% COLOMBIA 60% PORTUGAL 55% CROATIA 71% ROMANIA 44% CZECH REPUBLIC 73% RUSSIA 48% DENMARK 90% SAUDI ARABIA 49% EGYPT 36% SINGAPORE 75% ESTONIA 78% SLOVAKIA 79% FINLAND 89% SOUTH AFRICA 17% FRANCE 80% SOUTH KOREA 83% GERMANY 83% SPAIN 67% GREECE 53% SWEDEN 93% HONG KONG 75% SWITZERLAND 82% HUNGARY 65% TAIWAN 75% INDIA 11% THAILAND 30% INDONESIA 22% TURKEY 46% IRELAND 77% UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 71% ISRAEL 70% UNITED KINGDOM 84% ITALY 58% UKRAINE 34% JAPAN 80% UNITED STATES 78% LATVIA 72% VENEZUELA 41% LITHUANIA 65% VIETNAM 34% Source: Internet World Stats, June 30, 2012 Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company 21
  22. 22. About the Nielsen Global Survey The Nielsen Global Survey of Consumer Confidence and Spending Intentions was conducted between August 14 and September 6, 213 and polled more than 30,000 online consumers in 60 countries throughout Asia-Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa and North America. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%. This Nielsen survey is based on the behavior of respondents with online access only. Internet penetration rates vary by country. Nielsen uses a minimum reporting standard of 60 percent Internet penetration or 10M online population for survey inclusion. The China Consumer Confidence Index is compiled from a separate mixed methodology survey among 3,500 respondents in China. The Nielsen Global Survey, which includes the Global Consumer Confidence Index, was established in 2005. About Nielsen Nielsen Holdings N.V. (NYSE: NLSN) is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement. Nielsen has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA and Diemen, the Netherlands. For more information, visit www.nielsen.com. Copyright © 2013 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. Other product and service names are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective companies. 13/7077 22 Quarter 3 2013 - Global Consumer Confidence Report

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