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Grain analyst - 2014 soybean outlook - December 2013
As the calendar turns from 2013 to 2014, the soybean market set-up is very similar to where it was last year at this time, but our forward outlook is different. This report is designed to bring you - producer, processor, trader or market observer - up to speed on the fundamental factors affecting
the soybean market in 2014 and how we at Grain Analyst
would approach them.
Just like Adam Smith’s invisible hand helped corral the corn bull market of recent memory, we look for similar action to occur in soybeans over the 2014 growing season and 2015 marketing year. High prices during the United States’ (U.S.) pre-season planning will dictate that marginal producers,
who have the ability to plant soybeans, do so at the expense of crops like corn. This will result in soybeans being planted at a record pace in both the U.S. and South America, bringing prices down from the historically high levels we have seenin recent years. Price action resulting from this should bring
relative price value relationships between crops back in line with historical averages, after extended periods of being away from average levels. We hope this report will set the table for the story that will be the 2014 soybean crop year.