EIU - Capital markets to 2030: Global re-alignment - December 2013 …
EIU - Capital markets to 2030: Global re-alignment - December 2013
This Economist Intelligence Unit study sponsored by Deutsche Asset and Wealth Management examines how global capital markets will evolve to 2030. In so doing, it aims to shed light both on how the industry expects a range of today’s issues to play out, as well as – crucially – some of the potential implications of such developments for tomorrow. It draws on a detailed survey of 353 senior executives from companies active in capital markets; in-depth interviews with 16 experts, corporate leaders, and senior executives.
Date Published: December 6th 2013
Executives involved in capital markets are guardedly optimistic despite the global financial system’s unresolved risks. Between 60% and 70% of survey respondents expect that by 2030 global capital markets will have each of greater depth, efficiency, and liquidity. In every case, only 10% or fewer foresee deterioration.
Executives expect that having substantial investments in emerging markets will become the norm: the proportion with under a quarter of assets invested in these economies is expected to plummet from 60% today to 24% by 2030. At the same time, those surveyed say that by then the United States, China, and India will have the foremost equity markets, and the US, China, and Japan the most important debt ones.
More than four in ten survey respondents say that each of US dollar, the Chinese renminbi, and the euro will see inflation levels which will have a substantial negative effect on international markets by 2030. EIU’s own projections are much more benign at present. However, any rise in inflation as economies recover, if not carefully watched, carries the potential to grow uncontrolled.