Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey
Africa 2013
Getting down to business
Growing Beyond
Cover: Durban, South Africa
Ernst & Young’s attractiveness surveys
Ernst & Young’s attractiveness surveys are widely recog...
02
04
26
8
40
50
64
Contents
Reality
The FDI numbers: glass half empty or full?
Trends in economic activities, with a mark...
Welcome to the third annual edition of
Ernst & Young’s Africa attractiveness
survey. We release this at a time of ongoing
...
Seeking the opportunity,
managing the risk
Standard Chartered has a unique profile in Africa. Our business
is balanced acr...
1 Africa’s rise
is real
Africa’s rise over the past decade has been
very real. While skeptics still abound, and
there are ...
2 However, FDI numbers do not fully reflect
the broader growth story
Despite the ongoing growth and progress,
greenfield F...
4 Focus on enabling those already
doing business in Africa
The fact that there are a number of
companies with an already-e...
Principles for action
Five critical success factors, developed by Ernst & Young for the Strategic Growth Forum – Africa 20...
ContextDiverse African economies outperforming other regions in the world
Nairobi, Kenya.
Ernst & Young’s attractiveness s...
Africa’s growth is real
and sustainable
Key points
1 Despite some ongoing skepticism,
the past decade has been one of robu...
several states that remain fragile. Despite
the progress of many, there continue to
be failures. Unfortunately, though, it...
Projected GDP growth rate
(% change year to year – 2012–17)
Algeria
4.29
Mali
4.06 Chad
3.5
Ethiopia
6.3
Kenya
4
Tanzania
...
Source: adapted from Shantayanan Devarajan and Wolfgang Fengler, Is Africa’s recent economic growth sustainable?, World Ba...
During a trip to Ghana in 2009, I had
breakfast with a senior banker. I highlighted
the challenges of an established Ghana...
One would expect these numbers to
speak for themselves. Indeed, if the focus
were on Asia, or even Latin America, we
suspe...
The 2012 Ibrahim Index of African
Governance ranked Mauritius first in good
governance. Also in 2012, Mauritius’s
sovereig...
There is no one overriding factor that
makes us confident about the sustainability
of Africa’s growth trajectory. Instead,...
2Diversification of sources of
growth 
There is a fairly common view that Africa’s
growth over the past decade has been
dr...
Africans have known for more than 50 years that infrastructure
should be a key priority. So why now? Why are we focusing o...
4Investment in infrastructure
Infrastructure gaps, particularly relating
to logistics and electricity, are consistently
ci...
5Democracy has taken root
From the early days of independence
in the 1960s right through the 1980s,
almost every African c...
African election calendar 2013
Updated April 2013
Country Election Date
Cameroon National Assembly, Senate and communes 14...
Every country has a unique history, is
coming from a different place and has a
different set of aspirations, but actually,...
Global best practices in Africa by Doing Business topic
Practice Examples
Making it easy to
start
a business
Having no min...
7The quality of human life is
improving
Improvements in the quality of life are
not only a key indicator of the ultimate
i...
A 30-year journey?
No right-minded person is suggesting that Africa has been
transformed into an economic powerhouse in th...
October Bridge and River Nile in Cairo.
RealityFDI in Africa today
p.28  Greenfield investments
into Africa declined in 20...
The FDI numbers:
glass half empty
or full?
“This time the continent really is on the rise … the
engines of development are...
“We are seeing a trend where
African leaders are now prioritizing
visible infrastructure programs
and opportunities across...
But UNCTAD FDI data shows an increase in FDI
capital flows
This year, we have extended our analysis
beyond the core data s...
Viewpoint by Ernst & Young
Sandile Hlophe
Africa Leader,
Transaction Advisory
Services
Developing sustainable private sect...
There has been a growing focus on key sub-Saharan
African markets
When one looks at trends over the course
of the past dec...
Top key growth markets (new projects FDI)
CAGR (2007–12) 2011–12 % YoY CAGR (2007–11)
Ghana 50.8% Mali 300.0% Ghana 75.1%
...
We start up businesses from scratch. Over the years, we have
become Africa’s largest IT company in terms of footprint, and...
Emerging markets continue to grow their share
of investment into Africa
There was a strong resurgence in 2011 in greenfiel...
United States United Kingdom France India South
Africa
UAE Spain Germany CanadaChina
Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young an...
South Africa emerges as a leading investor on the continent
The prominence of intra-Africa investors among the growth lead...
Ongoing diversification of economic activities
Another key theme that we have
highlighted over the last few years has
been...
This diversification trend is arguably even more pronounced when
one analyzes the data from the perspective of types of ec...
Over the past decade, the number of middle-class consumers in
Africa has expanded by more than 60% to 313 million, accordi...
PerceptionHow Africa is viewed by foreign investors
p.42  Perceptions of Africa’s
attractiveness remain positive
p.43  Afr...
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013

898
-1

Published on

E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
898
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
35
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

E&Y - Africa attractiveness survey: Getting down to business - 2013

  1. 1. Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 2013 Getting down to business Growing Beyond
  2. 2. Cover: Durban, South Africa Ernst & Young’s attractiveness surveys Ernst & Young’s attractiveness surveys are widely recognized by our clients, the media and major public stakeholders as a key source of insight on foreign direct investment (FDI). Examining the attractiveness of a particular region or country as an investment destination, the surveys are designed to help businesses to make investment decisions and governments to remove barriers to future growth. A two-step methodology analyzes both the reality and perception of FDI in the respective country or region. Findings are based on the views of representative panels of international and local opinion leaders and decision-makers. Emerging Markets Center The Emerging Markets Center is Ernst & Young’s “Center of Excellence” that quickly and effectively connects you to the world’s fastest-growing economies. Our continuous investment in them allows us to share the breadth of our knowledge through a wide range of initiatives, tools and applications, thus offering businesses in both mature and emerging markets an in-depth and cross-border approach, supported by our leading and highly globally integrated structure. For further information on emerging markets, please visit: emergingmarkets.ey.com Attractiveness
  3. 3. 02 04 26 8 40 50 64 Contents Reality The FDI numbers: glass half empty or full? Trends in economic activities, with a marked shift toward investment in more value-added activities. Context Africa's growth is real and sustainable Economy has trebled and a critical mass of economies is poised to drive structural transformation. Conclusion Perception Investor perceptions: the persistent gap Positive in relation to other regions with a shift in sector focus; the shift is from "why" to "how" for doing business. Actions Getting down to business How Africa can move forward; the principles for action for business and government. Africa2013 Foreword Executive summary Getting down to business 1 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  4. 4. Welcome to the third annual edition of Ernst & Young’s Africa attractiveness survey. We release this at a time of ongoing uncertainty in the global economy, with the Eurozone in particular continuing to struggle. In contrast, economic growth across much of Africa has remained robust, with a number of our economies still among the fastest growing in the world. This continues a remarkable decade of growth and development, with not only economic, but also social and political indicators all trending in the right direction. Despite the ongoing growth story, the situation for FDI was a mixed one this year. Overall, project numbers were down, reversing the growth trend we saw last year. This is disappointing and somewhat surprising to us, particularly given the levels of interest we experience from a range of international companies in doing business in Africa. It does reveal to us, though, that the perception gap does remain a factor, and that while many potential investors are flirting with the idea of Africa, work must still be done on bridging the gap. Having said that, there are a critical mass of companies already doing business on the continent that are very positive about the continent’s current and future prospects. These companies, many of which have been doing business across Africa for decades, understand the real risks and opportunities, and are investing in and for growth. We are ourselves among these investors, not simply analyzing from the sidelines, but, in our 163rd year of doing business on the continent, actively driving our growth and integration journey. Last year alone, we opened new offices in Cameroon, Chad and South Sudan, bringing to 33 the number of African countries in which we now have a physical presence. In addition, we are utilizing our Africa Investment Plan to expand our senior level capacity and capabilities in key markets such as Nigeria, Angola, Kenya and South Africa, and to continue the process of integrating our people across the continent into a tightly knit, coordinated and responsive pan-African network. As we look forward, there are clearly many challenges that must still be addressed if the African growth story is going to be sustained over the coming decades. First and foremost, solutions to these challenges will start with Africans themselves – from a growing self- belief and confidence in the future of the continent, and the outstanding leaders that are emerging across government, business and civil society. There are, however, an increasing number of multinational investors that are believers and actively investing for long-term growth in Africa. These, too, should be viewed as critical partners and enablers of Africa’s future. This year’s report reinforces the point that those already doing business in Africa are overwhelmingly confident about the continent’s progress and prospects. They are growing their investments and operations, expanding into ever-more diverse activities, and supporting the long-term growth and developmental agendas of an increasing number of African economies. It is our view that, in this context, it's time for a shift of emphasis and mindset away from trying to persuade the Afro-skeptics toward just getting down to business and promoting the successful growth of private enterprise across the continent. The emphasis should be on what needs to be prioritized in order to further improve conditions for those already doing business in these economies and across the continent. We have no doubt that, with a critical mass of us pulling in the same direction, and with collaborative leadership across governments and those already doing business on the continent, Africa will continue its rise and will become an investment destination of choice in the decades to come. Jay Nibbe  Area Managing Partner, EMEIA — Markets, Ernst & Young Ajen Sita  Chief Executive Officer, Ernst & Young, Africa Investing for long-term growth Foreword “The sounding of the battle drum is important; the fierce waging of the war itself is important; and the telling of the story afterwards — each is important in its own way. I tell you there is not one of them we could do without. But if you ask me which of them takes the eagle feather, I will say boldly: the story … So why do I say that the story is chief among his fellows? ... Because it is only the story that can continue beyond the war and the warrior. It is the story that outlives the sound of the war drums and the exploits of brave warriors. It is the story, not the others, that saves our progeny from blundering like blind beggars into the spikes of the cactus fence. The story is our escort, without it we are blind.” Extract from Chinua Achebe. Anthills of the Savannah. Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 20132 Foreword
  5. 5. Seeking the opportunity, managing the risk Standard Chartered has a unique profile in Africa. Our business is balanced across 37 markets in East, West and Southern Africa - including 15 countries in which we have a full presence as a substantial local bank, and 22 in which we operate on a transaction basis. This provides a varied investment portfolio for our clients and covers 92% of Sub Saharan GDP. Africa has been central to Standard Chartered for over 150 years, but the opportunity and the global focus now feels palpably different. When I visit our clients in other parts of the world — particularly Asia — the first thing they want to talk about is Africa. The growth opportunities in Africa are increasingly evident: by 2035, the continent will have the world’s largest workforce, with over half of the population currently under the age of 20; the past 10 years have seen vast improvements in macroeconomic stability, and a burgeoning and fast-growing South-South trade and investment flow (with over US$170 billion of trade with China alone). Africa presents a significant opportunity across multiple sectors – with US$2.6 trillion of revenue expected by 2020 across resources, agriculture, consumer and infrastructure, of which US$1.4 trillion will be in consumer industries alone. The rapid emergence of a middle class, already equal in size to India, makes consumption a major driver of economic growth across the region, and is one of the most interesting yet less explored opportunities across Africa. We are often asked about the risks of operating in Africa. While the existence of corruption, poverty and limited infrastructure mean that the continent can still be a challenging place to do business, we are seeing steady progress across most markets. Over the last 10 years, governance and political stability have improved significantly. Although the levels of education, employment and skills vary substantially across the continent, there are increasingly deep talent pools in a number of key markets. Importantly, while many of these challenges facing businesses in key African markets are no more significant than elsewhere in the world, the rewards on offer are substantial. Critically, it is this risk-reward equation that makes African investment so compelling – the returns remain among the highest in the world, while risks are diminishing and can be effectively managed. Standard Chartered has found a number of factors helpful in harnessing this opportunity and managing the risks. The first is commitment: Africa rewards those who invest with a long-term agenda, both in respect of time and in conscious contribution to the economy and society. Second is local understanding: these are markets where critical information is not published or uniformly accessible and taking the time to build local relationships and teams is key (98% of our staff in Africa are African and many of our client relationships are multi-generational; both key to giving us a differentiated risk understanding). Third is people: ensuring that you hire, and more critically train, the best in the market can be transformational. Fourth is portfolio: although the growth trend for Africa is unequivocally positive, there will be more bumps in the road than in the case of Asian growth, and having the ability to balance risk across a number of markets can be extremely helpful. Investors who take the time to understand the nuances, risks and opportunities in Africa will be rewarded. Standard Chartered is a leading international banking group. It has operated for over 150 years in some of the world’s most dynamic markets and earns more than 90% of its income and profits in Asia, Africa and the Middle East. “By 2035, the continent will have the world’s largest workforce, with over half of the population currently under the age of 20.” Diana Layfield Africa CEO, Standard Chartered Getting down to business 3 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  6. 6. 1 Africa’s rise is real Africa’s rise over the past decade has been very real. While skeptics still abound, and there are people who still seek to debate the point, the evidence of the continent’s clear progress over the past decade is irrefutable. Over this period, a critical mass of African economies have grown at high and sustained rates; so much so that, despite the impact of the ongoing global economic situation, the size of the African economy has more than tripled since 2000. The outlook also appears positive, with many parts of the region forecast to continue experiencing relatively high growth rates and a number of African economies predicted to remain among the fastest growing in the world for the foreseeable future. The skeptics will most often point to the widespread perception that most of this growth has been driven by natural resources. Due to the volatile nature of commodity prices, an over-dependency on a few key sectors clearly raises questions about the sustainability of growth. The sub-text of such skepticism, though, is also often one tainted by negative historical beliefs about Africa as a conflict-ridden, politically unstable, hopelessly corrupt basket case. However, a far more positive story has emerged in the post-Cold War and post-Apartheid era: one of significant economic, political and social reforms; of a process of democratization that has taken root across much of the continent; of ongoing improvements to the business environment; of exponential growth in trade and investment; and of substantial improvements in the quality of human life. These fundamental improvements have provided a platform for the economic growth that a large number of African economies have experienced over the past decade. And, despite perceptions to the contrary, less than one-third of Africa’s growth has come from natural resources. The rest has come from a range of other sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and, in particular, services. There is, therefore, good reason to pause and celebrate the progress that Africa has made. At the same time, though, individual countries and the region as a whole still need to address significant challenges in order to sustain this progress, and to emulate the kind of developmental path we have seen in places like Southeast Asia over the past 30–40 years. We are of the view that FDI will play a key role in this process as both a source of capital, but, more importantly, as a catalyst for job creation, skills development, technology transfer, and ultimately, the longer-term diversification and transformation of key African economies. Executive summary Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 20134 Executive summary
  7. 7. 2 However, FDI numbers do not fully reflect the broader growth story Despite the ongoing growth and progress, greenfield FDI projects1 into Africa dropped year on year in 2012. Although this is obviously disappointing, it should be noted that the decline occurred in a context in which there were substantial declines in FDI projects globally. In fact, the global situation was such that Africa actually grew its overall share of FDI project flows from 5.4 to 5.6%. Nonetheless, investment from developed markets in particular was disappointing. Although FDI projects from the UK grew, those from the US and France, the other two leading developed market investors in Africa, were considerably down. In contrast, greenfield investments from emerging markets into Africa grew once 1.  Our primary source of FDI data is the fDi Markets database. This tracks greenfield (i.e., a form of foreign investment where a parent company invests in establishing a completely new enterprise) and significant expansion (brownfield) FDI projects, and does not include mergers and acquisitions (MandA), joint ventures (JVs) or other forms of equity investments. There is no minimum size for a project to be included, but every project has to create new direct jobs. again in 2012, continuing the trend of the past three years. In the period since 2007, this category of investment from emerging markets into Africa has grown at a healthy compound rate of over 20.7%, in comparison to investment from developed markets, which has grown at only 8.4%. Intra-African investment has been particularly impressive over this period since 2007, growing at a 32.5% compound rate. South Africa has been at the forefront of growth in intra-African and broader emerging market investment, and was, notably, the single largest investor in FDI projects in Africa outside of South Africa itself in 2012. This underlines a broader trend of growing confidence and optimism among Africans themselves about the continent’s progress and future. There has also been an important shift in emphasis in investment into the continent over the past few years, in terms of both destination markets and sectors. While investment into North Africa has largely stagnated (mainly due to recent political dynamics), FDI projects into sub-Saharan Africa have grown at a compound rate of 22% since 2007. Among the star performers attracting growing numbers of projects have been Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Mauritius and South Africa. At the same time, the trend of growing diversification continues, with an ever-increasing emphasis on services, manufacturing and infrastructure-related activities. To illustrate the point, in 2007, extractive activities represented 8.1% of FDI projects and 26.1% of capital invested in Africa; in 2012, it was a mere 1.8% of projects and 12% of capital. In comparison, services accounted for 70.2% of projects in 2012 (up from 45.2% in 2007), and manufacturing activities accounted for 43.1% of capital invested in 2012 (up from 22.4% in 2007). 3 The perception gap remains a barrier for new investors Our 2013 Africa attractiveness survey shows some progress in terms of investor perceptions since our inaugural survey in 2011. The majority of respondents are positive about the progress made in and the outlook for Africa. Africa has also gained ground relative to other global regions: whereas, in 2011, it was only ranked ahead of two other regions, this year, it was ranked ahead of five other regions (the former Soviet states, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, the Middle East and Central America). However, the big take away for us from this year’s survey is the stark and enduring perception gap between those respondents who are already doing business in Africa versus those that have not yet invested in the continent. Those with an established business, who understand the real rather than perceived risks of operating in Africa, who have experienced the progress made and see the opportunities for growth, are overwhelmingly positive. Some 86% of these business leaders believe that Africa’s attractiveness as a place to do business will continue to improve, and they rank Africa as the second most attractive regional investment destination in the world, after Asia. In contrast, those with no business presence in Africa are far more negative about Africa’s progress and prospects. Only 47% of these respondents believe Africa’s attractiveness will improve over the next three years, and they rank Africa as the least attractive investment destination in the world. Getting down to business 5 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  8. 8. 4 Focus on enabling those already doing business in Africa The fact that there are a number of companies with an already-established presence in Africa that are very positive about the continent’s growth prospects and are getting down to business is crucial. These are believers in the Africa growth story, who do not need convincing; they are growing their investments, creating new jobs and focusing on long-term, sustainable growth opportunities across the continent. The numbers also indicate that these companies, many of which have been doing business on the continent for decades, are expanding their operations in Africa, increasing their investments in greenfield projects, reinvesting their local earnings, strengthening local supply chains and enterprise, developing local skills, and generally focusing on long-term growth in Africa. These companies are already deeply committed to the future of the continent, both financially and emotionally. We believe it is, therefore, time for a shift of emphasis and mindset away from trying to persuade the skeptics toward promoting and enabling those already investing and doing business in Africa. Our survey highlights two key constraints that these companies face in doing business across the continent, and for which solutions should be prioritized: • Transport and logistics infrastructure There remains a significant deficit in physical transport infrastructure (roads, rail, ports, etc.) in Africa, and this clearly needs to be addressed. However, The World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI) illustrates that the quality of infrastructure is only one of several factors contributing to transport and logistics cost and inefficiencies. The LPI analysis indicates that the inefficiency of customs and border management, for example, is as important a factor in the relative underperformance of many African countries. Countries, such as Morocco, that are making substantial improvements in transport and logistics, are the ones that have implemented long-term and comprehensive reforms and investments across the transport and logistics supply chain. While there is no “cut- and-paste” approach, case studies indicate that, as important as investment in physical infrastructure is for improving transport and logistics in most African countries, so too is related improvements in customs, border management and regional facilitation and integration. • Anti-bribery and corruption initiatives Perceptions are often that corruption is rife across Africa. The facts, though, tell us that the extent to which it is a major issue varies widely, with several African countries benchmarking well against other emerging markets. Nevertheless, people doing business on the continent clearly identify bribery and corruption as a key constraint. In terms of addressing this constraint from a government perspective, the gap is arguably less in developing relevant anti-bribery and anti-corruption (ABAC) legislation as it is in the effective implementation thereof. And, of course, bribery and corruption are not issues for government alone; attention also needs to be given to addressing the role of the private sector. Drawing on work of the African Development Bank, OECD and Transparency International, we provide some thoughts for improvements in addressing the challenge of bribery and corruption. Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 20136 Executive summary
  9. 9. Principles for action Five critical success factors, developed by Ernst & Young for the Strategic Growth Forum – Africa 2013. Getting down to business implies a bias to action; we need to see a shift toward moving on and getting things done. However, we also need to ensure that government, business, the donor community and broader civil society are all working together toward achieving the same long-term objectives of economic growth and social development. This does happen, but often haphazardly and to a greater or lesser extent across different parts of Africa. To accelerate our progress, we need a more systemic and joined-up approach to working together to increase private investment, create more sustainable jobs, transfer new technologies and skills, and realize Africa’s true economic and human potential over the next few decades. But effective action needs to be grounded in an intellectual and emotional framework that ensures we are all on the “same page.” We believe it is, therefore, important to consciously frame a set of principles about doing business in Africa, not as a philosophical inquiry, but rather because our principles critically influence how we behave as individuals and organizations. They lead us to participate or sit on the sidelines, to be bold or meek, to build or to pull down; a clear set of principles provides a framework for belief, which, in turn, helps provide the confidence and courage to act. While we do not pretend to have all the answers, based on our own experience of growing an African practice across 33 countries, and of engaging with numerous private and public sector clients developing and executing strategies for growth in Africa, we suggest a set of five key principles. These, we believe, provide a framework for action for business and government, and for supporting the productive and mutually beneficial expansion of private investment in and across Africa. • Perspective: assuming a glass-half-full perspective that focuses first on opportunity, and only then on the risks that need to be managed. • Partnerships: investing in building strong collaborative partnerships across government, business and communities. • Planning: adopting careful long-term planning, and patience; persistence and flexibility in implementing those plans. • Places: embracing Africa’s diversity, but ensuring the whole is greater than the sum of the parts. • People: celebrating, nurturing and developing Africa’s human talent; arguably the continent’s greatest resource. Getting down to business 7 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  10. 10. ContextDiverse African economies outperforming other regions in the world Nairobi, Kenya. Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 20138
  11. 11. Africa’s growth is real and sustainable Key points 1 Despite some ongoing skepticism, the past decade has been one of robust and sustained economic growth in Africa. 2 In the period since 2002, and in the face of a tough global economy, the overall size of the African economy has more than trebled. 3 High growth rates of individual economies are set to continue, with the IMF forecasting that 11 of the 20 fastest-growing economies in the world through to 2017 will be in Africa. 4 Twenty-seven African countries have already attained “middle income” status, and at current growth rates, as many as 40 (i.e., 75% of countries on the continent) could reach that status by 2025. 5 The directional trend of several economic, political and social factors give us confidence that a critical mass of African economies are poised to drive the structural transformation required over the coming decades to not only sustain, but even accelerate, growth and development. In last year’s Africa attractiveness report (Building bridges), we highlighted the perception gap between negative historical beliefs about the continent and the positive reality of Africa’s growth over the past decade. In recent months, we have noted some commentary that criticizes the “irrational exuberance” associated with the Africa growth story, suggesting that the growth comes from a low base, is mainly driven by commodity prices and is not likely to be sustainable. Skepticism, and the outdated image of Africa as a poverty-stricken, disease - and conflict-ridden basket case that informs this skepticism, still runs deep. And there is, unfortunately, still enough bad news in Africa to reinforce the negative stereotypes. The reality of such a vast and diverse continent is that as much as we may want to celebrate the many economic success stories — from Botswana to Mozambique, to Zambia, to Rwanda, to Angola, to Nigeria, to Ghana, and so on — there are also Africa’s economic output (GDP, US$b) 2000 2004 2007 2009 2011 2012 2013 2015 2017 344.1 251.7 560.9 287.1 877.2 449.8 949.5 527.7 1295.8 618.7 1334.2 692.6 1415.7 741.2 1607.6 798.7 1844.6 899.9 Sources: IMF World Economic Outlook Database; Ernst & Young analysis. North AfricaSub–Saharan Africa Multiple since 2002 CAGR 2002–12 CAGR 2007–12 Sub-Saharan Africa x3.8 14.2% 8.7% North Africa x3 11.6% 9.0% Africa x3.5 13.3% 8.8% Getting down to business 9 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  12. 12. several states that remain fragile. Despite the progress of many, there continue to be failures. Unfortunately, though, it is too often the failures — increasingly the exception rather than the norm — that dominate the news headlines and reinforce outdated stereotypes. The reality is that a diverse range of African countries have now experienced consistent and robust growth for over a decade — certainly the longest period of sustained growth since most countries attained independence in the early 1960s. In the period since 2002, the size of the overall African economy has more than trebled (and grown at twice the population growth rate) — over this period, the size of the sub- Saharan African (SSA) economy has grown well over three-and-a-half times. What makes this economic performance all the more remarkable is that half of that decade has been marked by a deeply troubled global economy. Although many African economies have been negatively impacted by the situation in key trading partners in Europe and North America, most have remained remarkably resilient. Whichever way one analyzes it, the numbers tell us that a diverse and critical mass of African economies are consistently outperforming those in other, more celebrated regions of the world: • According to research conducted by Renaissance Capital, 11 African countries grew at an annual rate of 7% or more between 2000 and 2009.2 • The well-documented fact, based on IMF data, that 6 of the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world over the period 2001–2010 were in Africa, adds further substance to a story of robust and sustained growth. 2.  Charles Robertson, Yvonne Mhango and Nothando Ndebele, “Africa: The bottom billion becomes the fastest billion,” Renaissance Capital, July 2011. • The story looks set to continue through this year, with The World Bank, among various other notable institutions, forecasting growth for SSA (excluding South Africa) of 6%, with a full third of countries in the region growing at or above 6%. • Looking forward, and according to the IMF’s most recent forecasts, 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies through 2017 will be African.3 • As of today, 22 SSA countries (45% of the total), as well as five North African countries, have attained “middle income” status as defined by The World Bank4 and, if current growth rates are sustained, 13 more could reach middle income status by 2025.5 3.  Based on IMF estimates from the World Economic Outlook Database, October 2012. 4.  The World Bank’s criterion for classifying economies is gross national income (GNI) per capita. A country is classified as "middle income” if it has GNI of between US$1,026 and US$12,475. We have counted Equatorial Guinea as middle income, although it is, in fact, the first African country to be classified as “high income” (i.e., GNI per capita in excess of US$12,475). 5.  Shantayanan Devarajan and Wolfgang Fengler, “Is Africa’s recent economic growth sustainable?”, Institut français des relations internationals, October 2012. Asia Source: Renaissance Capital. Africa CIS Middle East Latin America and Caribbean CEE Africa accelerates past Asia With the highest number of countries that grew at 7% pa on average over 2000–09 1980–89 1990–99 2000–09 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201310 Context
  13. 13. Projected GDP growth rate (% change year to year – 2012–17) Algeria 4.29 Mali 4.06 Chad 3.5 Ethiopia 6.3 Kenya 4 Tanzania 6% Rwanda 6.5% Uganda 5.8% South Sudan 5.7% Tunisia 5.5% Zimbabwe 5.3% Cameroon 5% Senegal 4.7% Ghana 4.5% DRC 6.2% Zambia 6.2 Botswana 5.63 Mozambique 6.88 Malawi 7% South Africa 4.21 CAR 4.5 Angola 6.5 Namibia 3.75 Niger 4 Nigeria 5.1 Morocco 4.7 Libya 4 Egypt 5.58 Source: Oxford Economics; Ernst & Young Growing Beyond Borders™. <3% 3% to 4% 4% to 5% >5% Getting down to business 11 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  14. 14. Source: adapted from Shantayanan Devarajan and Wolfgang Fengler, Is Africa’s recent economic growth sustainable?, World Bank classifications. Sierre Leone Senegal Liberia Côte d'Ivoire Niger Nigeria Benin Togo Ghana Chad Central African Republic Cameroon AlgeriaMorocco Libya Tunisia Eritrea Madagascar Comoros Seychelles Mauritius Reunion Egypt Ethiopia Somalia Djibouti Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Burundi Democratic Republic of the Congo Angola Zambia Mozambique Malawi Namibia Botswana South Africa Lesotho Swaziland Zimbabwe Gabon Congo Mali Mauritania Cape Verde GuineaGuinea-Bissau Gambia Sao Tome and Principe Equatorial Guinea Burkina Fasso Sudan South Sudan Likely middle income by 2025 Possibly middle income by 2025 Unlikely middle income by 2025 Already middle income Africa's rise to middle income Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201312 Context
  15. 15. During a trip to Ghana in 2009, I had breakfast with a senior banker. I highlighted the challenges of an established Ghanaian software business to secure a loan at the prevailing interest rate of 25%, a concern echoed by several successful companies. He explained that many other investments that the bank was financing deliver significantly higher rates of return. Granting the loan at that interest rate was simply financially less attractive to the bank. His observation epitomises what we found in our research at Oxford University (Now is the time to invest in Africa, Harvard Business Review, 2009): profits across a large sample of firms in Africa exceed those of similar firms in Asia and Latin America, but investment is scarce. Today, the opportunities Africa offers for attractive commercial returns are increasingly appreciated in boardrooms around the world, and frequently touted in the financial press. As of 9 April 2013, the MSCI Frontier Markets Africa Index gained 64% over the preceding 12 months, more than four times the gains of the SandP 500 Index. The Ghanaian stock exchange, as an example, delivered 45% this year to date. Investment flows, however, remain relatively small compared with other regions, and are often concentrated in sectors that do not have a sufficient job- creating impact. Unemployment is arguably the continent’s single biggest challenge going forward. The 2012 African Economic Outlook reports that of the continent’s 40 million unemployed youths, 22 million have given up on finding a job, many of them women. The jobs gap is much wider once underemployment – low-paying self- employment and family work – are taken into account. Prolonged periods of jobless growth pose grave risks to Africa’s promise of stability and prosperity. Investors have historically avoided establishing major manufacturing facilities in sub-Saharan Africa that could serve as sustained drivers of employment. There are, however, encouraging global trends that increase the region’s competitiveness in manufacturing and services, with prospects to create millions of new jobs. Our analysis of gains in political stability, deep investments in infrastructure and improved environments for doing business in select geographic regions in Africa suggests that the time for large-scale manufacturing clusters is ripe. These trends are further amplified by Africa’s expanding consumer market, with the world’s fastest growing middle class and recent data on wage inflation and exchange rate pressures in China and other Asian manufacturing hubs. In light of the shift in political and economic fundamentals, Africa’s top performing economies now have a credible opportunity to aggressively pursue diversified investments that draw young talent into an expanding workforce. Jean-Louis Warnholz Co-founder and Managing Director, Fastafrica “There are, however, encouraging global trends that increase the region’s competitiveness in manufacturing and services, with prospects to create millions of new jobs.” Interview Africa offers attractive commercial returns Getting down to business 13 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  16. 16. One would expect these numbers to speak for themselves. Indeed, if the focus were on Asia, or even Latin America, we suspect that the validity of the economic growth story would be considered self- evident. At the very least, it should give us reason enough to pause and celebrate the remarkable progress of a continent that was dismissed at the beginning of the 2000s as “the hopeless continent.”6 That said, it is important, too, that we do not get caught up in a latter-day “gold rush” mentality. Most African countries still have a long way to go to emulate Asia’s sustained meteoric growth. In many respects, Africa is today at a point where many of the east Asian economies were in the 1970s, and the likes of India, Mexico and Turkey were in the 1980s. However, while there is no 6.  The reference is to a 2001 cover story in the Economist. In fairness, and given the significant progress since that story was published, the Economist has done an about turn, and more recently published two far more positive cover stories documenting the Africa growth story ("Africa Rising," December 2011, and "Aspiring Africa," February 2013). “cut-and-paste” answer to effective economic growth and industrial policy, we strongly believe that a critical mass of African economies are poised to drive the structural transformation required over the coming decades. This will not only sustain, but even accelerate, the growth and development we have seen over the past decade. Gross national income per capita (2005 PPP US$) Note: PPP is purchasing power parity. Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office (HDRO) calculations. 1990 2,100 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201314 Context
  17. 17. The 2012 Ibrahim Index of African Governance ranked Mauritius first in good governance. Also in 2012, Mauritius’s sovereign credit rating was increased to 1, with a stable outlook, by Moody’s Investors Service. This positive momentum and robust growth can be attributed largely to the close partnership between its public and private sector. Breaking the barriers to improve the ease of doing business has seen Mauritius break through many African stereotypes. If I had to pinpoint a key factor in our success, it would be the reforms that we enacted in the 1980s. This was when personal and income taxes were halved, and we enacted legislation to attract foreign direct investment from Asia for our exports. We empowered labor laws to ensure our people do minimum overtime, so that companies can be profitable. A directed lending policy was adopted – banks were obliged to lend to our export processing zone at rates lower than elsewhere. Mauritius focused on growing key sectors of its economy, such as tourism. At this time, when other countries in the region were focused on centrally managed economies, we opted for a very different approach to bring us the outcomes we were looking to achieve. Today, the country is in a strong position. Having maintained reasonable growth rates through the years of the financial crisis, it also has excellent economic fundamentals, such as a 1.8% budget deficit. We have continually been able to reduce taxes, while, at the same time, still receiving increases in tax revenues. We are also looking into moving to new sectors, such as financial services, as we believe in supporting our different sectors of the economy. Further, to simplify the ease of doing business, we are streamlining regulations and the permit process. All of these reforms and initiatives have placed Mauritius in good stead and have forced many business people across the world to reconsider their perceptions of Africa. I believe that our region can be prosperous. The winds of change are sweeping across Africa, albeit at different rates, but I am optimistic about the future. Hon. Xavier-Luc Duval Vice Prime Minister, Mauritius “The positive momentum in Mauritius and its robust growth can be attributed largely to the close partnership between its public and private sector.” Interview Improving the environment for doing business in Africa Getting down to business 15 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  18. 18. There is no one overriding factor that makes us confident about the sustainability of Africa’s growth trajectory. Instead, there are a number of economic, social and political factors that are all moving in the right direction; it is this directional trend since the end of the Cold War and Apartheid that is critically important. Among the more important factors for us are the following: 1Sound macroeconomic management  We do not feel that it is an exaggeration to suggest that a large number of African economies have been better managed over the past decade than their developed market counterparts. Economic reforms that began being implemented in the 1990s have laid a foundation for the sustained growth that we have subsequently seen. Significantly reduced budget deficits and debt levels, for example, have been a key factor. In a sample of 15 SSA countries,7 the debt burden — 7.  Analysis by Skolkovo Institute for Emerging Markets. Averages have been calculated for the following 15 countries: Botswana, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Rwanda, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia. measured as the stock of external debt to gross national income (GNI) — decreased from an average of 120% in 1994 to 21% in 2011.8 While many developed markets continue to struggle with massive debt burdens, many African governments have had far greater flexibility to invest in growth. Our own calculations9 also show that Africa’s ability to cover its total debt service through export earnings has strengthened on average fourfold since 2007, when compared with 1990 levels. Similarly, and despite growth rates, inflation levels have dramatically improved over the past decade. 8.  World Development Indicators, World Bank, 2012. 9.  Using export income from goods and services and taking its ratio against total debt service. World Bank Development Indicator figures. Improvement in macroeconomic indicators Inflation External debt or GNI 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 Botswana 10.8 10.8 8.7 8.9 23.2 13.6 6.6 11.6 Burkina Faso 5.0 4.5 3.0 2.8 26.9 47.4 35.6 23.3 Cameroon 9.1 5.6 2.6 2.9 41.0 95.3 56.4 13.5 Ethiopia 4.6 8.0 10.9 33.2 55.2 104.0 48.3 24.1 Ghana 48.3 27.6 18.5 8.7 48.2 79.8 73.3 27.2 Kenya 11.8 17.4 10.9 14.0 63.0 79.7 37.0 26.9 Mauritius 11.2 7.6 6.0 6.5 45.6 31.8 13.5 11.0 Mozambique 45.1 34.5 10.7 10.4 130.4 252.5 83.6 43.8 Nigeria 20.9 30.6 12.2 10.8 77.0 118.1 35.6 4.5 Rwanda 4.7 8.6 8.2 4.9 20.6 63.1 53.7 14.2 Senegal 6.9 4.5 2.1 3.4 72.8 76.7 45.1 28.5 South Africa n/a 9.9 6.1 5.0 n/a 17.8 16.6 12.7 Tanzania 30.1 23.1 6.8 12.7 129.9 131.2 55.2 37.7 Uganda 111.2 13.0 6.4 18.7 40.2 74.3 42.7 17.9 Zambia 69.3 76.2 17.3 8.5 192.2 218.2 103.5 25.8 Average 27.8 18.8 8.7 10.1 69.0 93.6 47.1 21.5 Source: World Development Indicators (2012), The World Bank Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201316 Context
  19. 19. 2Diversification of sources of growth  There is a fairly common view that Africa’s growth over the past decade has been driven by natural resources. However, while they are and will continue to be an important contributor to growth, resources have contributed less than a third of Africa’s growth since 2000. The rest has come from a range of other sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, construction and, in particular, services. These growth patterns are reflected in the overall structure of Africa’s total GDP (which is this year forecast to break the US$2 trillion mark). During a period in which the size of Africa’s GDP has tripled, natural resources (excluding agriculture) have made an average contribution of less than 20%, while services are moving ever closer to accounting for 60% of value added. 3Growth and diversification of trading partners Growth in Africa’s trade with the rest of the world has grown over fourfold since 2000 and has been another key driver of Africa’s sustained economic growth. The EU as a bloc remains Africa’s largest trading partner, and trade between Africa and the EU has grown at a compound rate close to 10% since 2000. However, the EU’s relative share of trade with Africa has shrunk considerably over that period — from over 50% in 2000 to around about 30% today — as growth in trade with other markets, particularly those in the emerging world, has picked up. Standard Bank, for example, estimates that that BRICS’ (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) total trade with Africa reached US$340 billion in 2012 (i.e., Africa’s total trade with the rest of the world in 2000), representing a more than 10-fold increase over the course of a decade.10 10.  Simon Freemantle and Jeremy Stevens, “BRICS trade is flourishing, and Africa remains a pivot,” Standard Bank Research, February 2013. Source: adapted from Standard Bank Research. 2015 (est) 500 2000 11.3% 2010 22.9% 2000 27.9 2010 220.2 2012 340 2012 29% BRICS – Africa bilateral trade BRICS Africa total trade (US$ billion) BRICS of Africa total trade (%) 60% China-Africa proportion of BRICS trade with Africa. 25% China-Africa trade was roughly US$220 billion in 2012, up to 25% year on year. x2 Since the 2007 global financial crisis, the trade between BRICS and Africa doubled. 12,3% Sub-Saharan Africa’s contribution to GDP (%) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2011 Average (2000–11) Source: The World Development Indicators, World Bank, 6 Feb 2013. Agriculture Natural resources Manufacturing Services 16,3% 19,7% 17,1% 16,1% 13,2% 12,1% 15,7% 13,4% 11,6% 15,4% 18,6% 22,5% 17,0% 18,1% 15,9% 14,9% 13,7% 13,7% 12,8% 13,5% 12,4% 11,8% 13,5% 54,2% 50,3% 52,0% 52,3% 55,2% 57,7% 58.0% 53,9% Getting down to business 17 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  20. 20. Africans have known for more than 50 years that infrastructure should be a key priority. So why now? Why are we focusing on this? African growth has generated greater demand. We have huge demographic shifts creating higher expectations, as well as increasing urbanization, which means that 40% of Africans are projected to live in cities by 2030. And, since 2006, intra- African trade has increased from about US$48 billion a year to over US$100 billion a year. Again, what has not kept pace is the infrastructure itself. Today, 30 countries are affected by chronic power problems. Transportation costs are on the up — increasing the costs of goods by at least 75% in some landlocked countries. We also know that only 4% of African GDP is invested in infrastructure, compared with about 14% in China. If we can close the gap, we will add two additional percentage points to African GDP. It has been well established that Africa needs to spend approximately US$90 billion a year for the next decade to upgrade and maintain its infrastructure. We have financing for about US$40 billion a year, so the deficit each year is estimated about US$50 billion. We will also need to focus on the maintenance and rehabilitation of existing infrastructure, where a huge funding gap also exists. Clearly, the need is urgent, and innovative and bold approaches are required — a business-as-usual approach will not suffice. We are seeing a trend where African leaders are now prioritizing visible infrastructure programs and opportunities across different regions of the continent. We’re also seeing new sources of financing developing. The reliance on overseas development aid has fallen back since the financial crisis, and infrastructure financing must look beyond aid. This won’t be straightforward, because if you divide up the project life cycle of financing and look at it in terms of preparation, construction and operation, in the first phase we don’t see a lot of private sector activity — it tends to be reliant on aid. We now have to look to different flows of capital, such as Africa’s foreign exchange reserves invested abroad, pension funds, domestic issued and diaspora bonds, remittances and sovereign wealth funds, all of which can catalyze private sector investment in infrastructure. In addition, we’re also seeing massive quantitative easing programs in Europe and the US. So there are a lot emerging market funds that are seeking yields elsewhere. We think a lot of these funds will try to find a home in Africa. But, of course, there is competition. For example, Eastern Europe needs over €2 trillion for its infrastructure over the next decade. This means we need to move from having a wishlist of investable projects to having bankable projects. Establishing bankability and making it easier for the private sector to come in is a key priority. What we need now is an area conducive business environment and projects that are transformative, and commercially viable, that inspire investor confidence and have a catalytic role on the economy. From a regional and continental infrastructure development perspective, the Programme for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA) already provides good candidates with high-level consensus. The African Development Bank (AfDB) is a regional multilateral development finance institution established to contribute to the economic development and social progress of African countries. Ebrima Faal Regional Director, African Development Bank “We need to move from having a wishlist of investable projects to having bankable projects.” Interview The infrastructure deficit and opportunities in Africa Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201318 Context
  21. 21. 4Investment in infrastructure Infrastructure gaps, particularly relating to logistics and electricity, are consistently cited as the biggest challenges by those doing business in Africa. At a macro level, too, Africa’s growth will be inherently constrained until the infrastructure deficit is bridged. The flip side of this challenge, though, is that strong growth has been occurring despite such infrastructure constraints — consider the potential not only to sustain, but to accelerate, growth as the gap is narrowed. And the facts tell us that the gap is being narrowed: • Our analysis indicates that, in 2012, there were over 800 active infrastructure projects across different sectors in Africa, with a combined value in excess of US$700 billion. • South Africa had the most infrastructure projects (with a combined value of close to US$130 billion). The South African Minister of Finance also recently announced that approximately US$100 billion has been allocated in the Government’s budget for spending on infrastructure projects over the next three years. • Nigeria is next, with 106 infrastructure projects with a value of close to US$100 billion. The East African countries of Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania, together with Mozambique, are also all in the top 10 in terms of number of infrastructure projects, while Angola has the 4th highest capital value overall. • The large majority of the total infrastructure projects are related to power (37%) and transport (41%). Source: Africa Project Access, Business Monitor International; Ernst & Young analysis. 37% 299 projects 36% 293 projects 27% 225 projects Conceptual to feasibility Financial closure to early implementation In progress and near completion Number of projects (% share of total projects) Top 10 African destination countries for infrastructure projects, up to February 2013 Number of projects Sum of capital invested (US$ million) South Africa 134 129,934.0 Nigeria 106 95,480.5 Egypt 82 60,164.7 Uganda 63 17,730.3 Kenya 60 32,851.5 Algeria 34 87,154.1 Mozambique 31 32,085.0 Libya 29 20,668.4 Tanzania 29 16,185.1 Cameroon 25 8,470.8 Source: Africa Project Access, Business Monitor International; Ernst & Young analysis. Power plants and transmission grids Source: Africa Project Access, Business Monitor International; Ernst & Young analysis. Roads and bridges Rail Water Airports Ports Commercial construction Industrial construction Oil and gas pipelines Housing Health care Residential construction Education 24.9% Africa's infrastructure projects up to February 2013 % share of total number of projects and capital invested – by different sector activity (ranked by most projects) Share of total capital invested Share of total projects 37.0% 11.5% 17.6% 4.7% 10.3% 3.3% 4.6% 2.6% 4.7% 1.5% 9.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 10.6% 20.9% 7.3% 3.1% 7.2% 1.8% 6.4% 7.3% Transport and logistics sectors account for: 42% of projects (as % of the total) 41.5% of capital invested Getting down to business 19 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  22. 22. 5Democracy has taken root From the early days of independence in the 1960s right through the 1980s, almost every African country was ruled by some form of dictator.11 However, the democratic elections in Namibia in 1989 symbolized a turning point in Africa’s political development. Within months after the Berlin Wall had fallen, Nelson Mandela had been released from jail, and an era of 11.  Between 1960 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, only five African countries held elections on any kind of regular basis. Of those, there was only a single instance — in Mauritius — of a peaceful, democratic transfer of power. political reform and democratization had begun. Looking back on almost 25 years of slow but steady progress, Africa’s political landscape has changed dramatically. Some form of regular democratic elections has become increasingly the norm across most parts of Africa. Although the process is often not perfect, and there is still a long way to go in many countries, the process is very real and substantial. To illustrate the point, between 1960 and the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, only five African countries held elections on any kind of regular basis, and there was only a single instance — in Mauritius — of a peaceful, democratic transfer of power. In contrast, since 1990, we have seen well over 30 ruling parties or leaders changing through a democratic process — Kenya’s presidential elections in March this year being the most recent example. Anyone with an appreciation of history will know that it took centuries for democracy to evolve and stabilize in Western Europe. In this context, Africa’s trajectory over the past 20 years is remarkable. Source: "African Elections Calendar 2011," African Democracy Encyclopedia, The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa website, www.eisa.org.za, accessed 15 April 2013. Sierre Leone Senegal Liberia Côte d'Ivoire Niger Nigeria Benin Togo Ghana Chad Central African RepublicCameroon AlgeriaMorocco Libya Tunisia Eritrea Madagascar Comoros Seychelles Mauritius Reunion Egypt Ethiopia Somalia Djibouti Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Burundi Democratic Republic of the Congo Angola Zambia Mozambique Malawi Namibia Botswana South Africa Lesotho Swaziland Zimbabwe Gabon Congo Mali Mauritania Cape Verde Guinea Guinea-Bissau Gambia Sao Tome and Principe Burkina Fasso Sudan South Sudan Sierre Leone Senegal Liberia Equatorial GuineaEquatorial Guinea Côte d'Ivoire Niger Nigeria Benin Togo Ghana Chad Central African RepublicCameroon AlgeriaMorocco Libya Tunisia Eritrea Madagascar Comoros Seychelles Mauritius Reunion Egypt Ethiopia Somalia Djibouti Kenya Tanzania Uganda Rwanda Burundi Democratic Republic of the Congo Angola Zambia Mozambique Malawi Namibia Botswana South Africa Lesotho Swaziland Zimbabwe Gabon Congo Mali Mauritania Cape Verde GuineaGuinea-Bissau Gambia Sao Tome and Principe Burkina Fasso Sudan South Sudan No elections 2011 No elections held Elections 2011 No elections 2012 No elections held Elections 2012 African elections calendar 2011–12 Updated May 2012 Updated December 2012 Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201320 Context
  23. 23. African election calendar 2013 Updated April 2013 Country Election Date Cameroon National Assembly, Senate and communes 14 Apr 2013 (postponed from Jul 2012) Côte d'Ivoire Local 24 Feb 2013 Djibouti National Assembly 22 Feb 2013 Egypt House of Representatives 2013 – postponed from 27 Apr (in four stages), ending in Jun; date uncertain Shura Council Second half of 2013 Ethiopia Local Early 2013 House of the Federation (indirect) 2013 President (indirect) Oct 2013 Equatorial Guinea House of People's Representatives and local 26 May 2013 Gambia Local 2 Apr 2013 Guinea National Assembly Postponed to 30 Jun 2013 from 12 May 2013 Guinea-Bissau People's National Assembly and local 2013 (postponed from 2012) Kenya Presidential, National Assembly and local 4 Mar 2013 (postponed from 14 Aug 2012) Libya Constitutional referendum 2013 Presidential, parliamentary and local 2013, after referendum Madagascar Presidential first round Postponed to 24 Jul 2013 from 8 May 2013 Presidential second round and National Assembly Postponed to 25 Sep 2013 from 3 Jul 2013 Local 23 Oct 2013 Senate (indirect) Oct or Nov 2013, after local Mali Presidential, National Assembly and local 7 Jul 2013 Mauritania Senate (1/3 members), National Assembly, regional and local 2013? (postponed indefinitely from May 2012) Mauritius President (indirect) Sep 2013 Mozambique Local Nov 2013 Rwanda Chamber of Deputies 2013 Somaliland House of Representatives May 2013 Swaziland House of Assembly and rural local Late 2013 Togo National Assembly and local 24 Mar 2013 (postponed from Oct 2012) Tunisia Presidential, parliamentary and local Late 2013 Presidential second round 17 Jul 2013 Zimbabwe Constitutional referendum 16 Mar 2013 Presidential, National Assembly, Senate and local 2013, after referendum Source: "African Election Calendar 2013," African Democracy Encyclopedia, The Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa website, www.eisa.org.za, accessed 15 April 2013 Getting down to business 21 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  24. 24. Every country has a unique history, is coming from a different place and has a different set of aspirations, but actually, when you cut across borders, a lot of the countries are facing common challenges. There are several African countries that have risen up the ranks of the World Bank’s Doing Business indicators. Mauritius is a leader — number 19 in the most recent assessment. South Africa is in the 30s, and Rwanda is another up-and-coming country. But there are still a number of African countries that are clustered in the lower ranks, and this brings the average for Africa down, which is still pretty low. We know what the frontier is — it is a question of how to get governments to cut through the red tape and make it easier to do business. The recent successes of Mauritius break through so many stereotypes, such as the notion that a lot of African countries are small and, therefore, cannot grow. Mauritius has dispelled that by going global and opening up its borders. Another notion is that African countries are stuck in a trap of undiversified economies and are not creating jobs — but Mauritius has shown that jobs can be created, particularly for youth and women. This is particularly important. I can think of several ways to build trust between governments and the private sector. First, countries need to start by developing a common vision for their future. These can bring people together as they pursue common goals, such as fighting poverty, inequalities and creating jobs. Second, there also needs to be strong institutions (judiciary, free press and civil service), as they are the interface between the private sector and the state. Third, there needs to be a consistency in the tax regime. Fourth, there needs to be clear communication between the two sectors and, finally, transparency, which is essential around public finances, procurement and the government-business relationship. These are all extremely important to build trust with the private sector. Asad Alam Regional Director, World Bank “Mauritius has dispelled many stereotypes by going global and opening up its borders.” Interview Improving the environment for doing business in Africa Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201322 Context
  25. 25. Global best practices in Africa by Doing Business topic Practice Examples Making it easy to start a business Having no minimum capital requirement Kenya, Madagascar, Morrocco, Rwanda Having a one-stop shop Burkina Fasso Making it easy to deal with construction permits Having comprehensive building rules Kenya Using risk-based building approvals Mauritius Having a one-stop shop Rwanda Making it easy to obtain an electricity connection Streamlining approval processes (utility obtains excavation permit or right of way if required) Benin Reducing the financial burden of security deposits for new connections Mozambique Making it easy to register property Setting fixed transfer fees Rwanda Making it easy to get credit Allowing a general description of collateral Nigeria, Rwanda Maintaining a unified registry Ghana Distributing data on loans below 1% of income per capita Kenya, Tunisia Distributing both positive and negative credit information South Africa Distributing credit information from retailers, trade creditors or utilities as well as financial institutions Rwanda Protecting investors Allowing rescission of prejudicial related-party transactions Mauritius, Rwanda Requiring external review of related-party transactions Egypt Making it easy to pay taxes Allowing self-assessment Rwanda Allowing electronic filing and payment Mauritius, Tunisia Having one tax per tax base Namibia Making it easy to trade across borders Using risk-based inspections Morrocco, Nigeria Providing a single window Ghana Making it easy to enforce contracts Making all judgments in commercial cases by first-instance courts publicly available in practice Nigeria Maintaining specialized commercial court, division or judge Burkina Fasso, Liberia, Sierra Leone Allowing electronic filing of complaints Rwanda Making it easy to resolve insolvency Requiring professional or academic qualifications for insolvency administrators by law Namibia Specifying time limits for the majority of insolvency procedures Lesotho Source: World Bank/IFC Doing Business 2013. 6It is getting easier to do business While Africa’s size, diversity and fragmented economies make it an inherently complex place to do business, conditions have significantly improved over the past decade. Using The World Bank’s Doing Business research as one key indicator of trends, many African economies have made substantial progress. Focusing only on SSA, the World Bank’s research shows that 45 out of the 46 sub-Saharan economies they track have improved their regulatory environments for doing business since 2005. In fact, among the 50 economies that have made the biggest improvements over that period, the largest share — 19, or well over a third — is in Africa. Of these, Rwanda has made the most progress overall, with the Government pursuing a systematic program to improve the environment for doing business and promote private sector growth. However, several others, including Mauritius (the highest-ranked African country, and also ranked above the likes of Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands and France), Ghana, Nigeria, Angola, Senegal, Egypt and Morocco, have all made substantial progress. Easy 100 Source: World Bank/IFC Doing Business 2013. Doing business The regulatory environment for doing business is improving Doing business is South Africa Mauritius Namibia Kenya Ghana Swaziland Ethiopia Uganda Lesotho Gambia, the Nigeria Madagascar Comoros Cameroon Rwanda Benin Senegal Togo Mauritiana Mali Angola Guinea-Bissau Congo, Rep. Burkina Fasso Congo, Dem. Rep. Chad Complex 0 Getting down to business 23 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  26. 26. 7The quality of human life is improving Improvements in the quality of life are not only a key indicator of the ultimate impact of economic growth, but also of long-term sustainability. While there is obviously still a long way to go, the trends point to significant progress not only in raising income levels, but in areas of health, education and general welfare in many parts of Africa: • According to The World Bank, the poverty rate in Africa has been falling by one percentage point a year since 1995. They estimate that the proportion of Africans living beneath the poverty line will have reduced from 60% in 1995 to 38% in 2015. • At the same time, based on UNESCO data, average literacy rates in Africa have improved from 52% in the 1990s to almost 65% today. • Reduction in the annual rate of child mortality is accelerating (averaging over 3% for sub-Saharan Africa since 2000, according to UNICEF data). • An analytical study by Xavier Sala-i-Martin and Maxim Pinkovskiy backs up the view that the quality of life in Africa is steadily improving. In their paper, African Poverty is Falling … Much Faster than You Think! they reveal that there has been a sharp and widespread reduction in poverty and income inequality in Africa since 1995. Source: Human Development Report Office (HDRO) calculations, UNDP. Source: Human Development Report Office (HDRO) calculations, UNDP. Human development Sustained improvement in the UN’s Human Development Index (HDI) for African countries (0=worst, 1=best) 0.371 0.405 0.437 0.468 0.496 0.523 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 Overall health levels are improving Sub-Saharan Africa HDI Health Index (0=worst, 1=best) 0.5 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.60 0.61 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2012 142.5 96.4 Source: Human Development Report Office (HDRO) calculations, UNDP. Sub-Saharan Africa under 5 mortality (Deaths per 1,000) 1990 2010 Notes: The Education Index is one of the three pillars on which the overall HDI is built. The Education Index comprises two indices; 1. expected years of schooling (children), and 2. mean years of schooling (adults). Source: Human Development Report Office (HDRO) calculations, UNDP. Steady progress in education levels HDI educational index for Africa (0=worst, 1=best) 0.249 0.324 0.397 0.419 0.445 0.445 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2011 Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201324 Context
  27. 27. A 30-year journey? No right-minded person is suggesting that Africa has been transformed into an economic powerhouse in the space of a few short years. There are still many challenges ahead, not least of which is a robust structural transformation — required across many economies — that will not only lessen dependency on commodities, but also expand the private sector, increase productivity levels and, most of all, create jobs. However, with an increasingly solid foundation of economic, political and social reform, together with resilient growth rates, we are confident that the continent as a whole is on a sustainable upward trajectory. This direction of travel, rather than the current destination, is what is most important. A critical mass of African economies will continue on this journey. Despite the fact that there will undoubtedly be bumps in the road, there is a strong probability that a number of these economies will follow the same developmental paths that some of the Asian economies, as well as economies such as Mexico and Turkey, have over the past 30 years. By the 2040s, we have no doubt that the likes of Nigeria, Ghana, Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Africa will be considered among the growth powerhouses of the global economy. Getting down to business 25 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  28. 28. October Bridge and River Nile in Cairo. RealityFDI in Africa today p.28  Greenfield investments into Africa declined in 2012 p.29  But UNCTAD FDI data shows an increase in FDI capital flows p.31  There has been a growing focus on key sub- Saharan African markets p.34  Emerging markets continue to grow their share of investment into Africa p.36  South Africa emerges as a leading investor in the continent p.37  Ongoing diversification of economic activities Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201326
  29. 29. The FDI numbers: glass half empty or full? “This time the continent really is on the rise … the engines of development are still going strong. Democratic governance, political participation and economic management look set to improve further. Many reforms already introduced have yet to take full effect. New infrastructure, better technology, growing urbanization and the return of emigrants will keep fueling business. Some economists believe that Africa’s GDP numbers, if anything, underestimate its real growth.” "Cheerleaders and naysayers,” The Economist, March 2013. Key points 1 Greenfield FDI projects into the continent were down by 12% year on year, reversing the strong growth in projects during 2011. 2 This decline, however, occurred in a context in which global project flows shrunk by 15% year on year. 3 In fact, as a proportion of global flows, greenfield projects into Africa actually grew from 5.4% to 5.6% year on year. 4 Furthermore, according to preliminary 2012 FDI data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), capital flows into Africa actually increased by 5.5% last year (in a context in which capital flows declined in every one of the BRICS, except for South Africa). 5 A group of sub-Saharan economies, including Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Mauritius and South Africa, have been among the growth leaders in terms of attracting FDI projects in the period since 2003. 6 While FDI projects from developed markets into Africa declined markedly (with the exception of the UK), emerging markets continued to grow their investments. 7 The stand-out performer in terms of emerging markets investment into (the rest of) Africa was South Africa, sustaining the trend of robust intra- African investment. 8 Intra-African contributions to FDI projects continue a strong upward trend, recording a high compound rate of 32.5% since 2007, compared with 15% CAGR for (non-African) emerging markets project investment into Africa, and only 8.4% for developed markets over the same period. 9 Diversification of greenfield FDI projects also continued apace, with services accounting for more than 70% of projects in 2012 and 73.5% of capital being invested into manufacturing and infrastructure-related activities across all sectors. Getting down to business 27 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  30. 30. “We are seeing a trend where African leaders are now prioritizing visible infrastructure programs and opportunities across different regions of the continent. We’re also seeing new sources of financing developing.” Ebrima Faal, Regional Director, African Development Bank Greenfield investments into Africa declined in 2012 At face value, 2012 was a disappointing year, in that it reversed the year-on-year growth we experienced in 2011, and somewhat dampened our expectations of steady growth in FDI projects. Having said that, we do need to put these trends in perspective: • Globally, greenfield projects were down by over 15% year on year in 2012, so the background is one of decline across the board. • In this context, Africa’s proportional share of global greenfield projects actually grew, continuing a trend that has seen this share grow, in the course of a decade, from 3.5% of the global total in 2003 to 5.6% in 2012. • It is also worth noting that the 764 new greenfield projects this year is still higher than the 678 in 2010, and significantly higher than anything that preceded the peak of 2008. Global FDI trend for number of new projects 2003 2007 2008 2011 2012 Africa’s total Africa’s share of global totalRest of the world total 9 212 12 652 16 387 15 138 12 832 339 421 899 867 764 3.5% 3.2% 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. New projects FDI inflow trends into Africa (2003–12) 2003 20052004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. North AfricaSub-Saharan Africa 209 169 255 275 216 532 489 646 458 592128 108 205 198 202 367 258 220 221 172 -12% New projects (2011–12) Growth trend in new projects FDI CAGR (2007–12) CAGR (2003–12) Africa 12.8% 9.5% Sub-Saharan Africa 22.3% 12.3% North Africa -3.2% 3.3% Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201328 Reality
  31. 31. But UNCTAD FDI data shows an increase in FDI capital flows This year, we have extended our analysis beyond the core data set we receive from fDi Markets, and also looked at FDI data from UNCTAD. It is important to note the differences in the two datasets: • The fDi Markets database, which is our primary source, tracks new greenfield and significant expansion (brownfield) FDI projects, and does not include mergers and acquisitions (MandA) or other forms of equity investments. There is no minimum size for a project to be included, but every project has to create new direct jobs. • The UNCTAD data looks more broadly at net flows of FDI capital, including equity capital, reinvested earnings and intra- company loans. What is interesting is that, despite greenfield investment into Africa having declined last year, the broader UNCTAD category shows an overall growth of FDI into the continent of 5.5%. This at a time when global FDI flows, according to the UNCTAD definition, declined by 18.3%. What the UNCTAD data also tells us is that Africa’s overall stock of FDI (i.e., the accumulated amount of active foreign investment capital and reserves, including retained profits) has increased almost fourfold since 2000. With the relative decline in greenfield investment last year, the UNCTAD numbers also indicate that foreign companies with existing operations in Africa are increasing their equity stakes or reinvesting a large proportion of their local earnings (components not directly measured in the fDi Markets data). This is a critical point that we will return to, because it highlights again the confidence of those already doing business on the continent. FDI inflows 2010–12 (US$ billion and %) Region or economy 2010 2011* 2012** Growth rate 2011–12 (%) World 1,381.0 1,604.2 1 310.7 -18.3 Developed economies 674.9 807.8 548.9 -32.1 European Union 358.0 440.0 287.0 -34.8 United States 197.9 226.9 146.7 -35.3 Australia 35.2 65.8 48.5 -26.3 Japan - 1.3 - 1.8 - 0.4 .. Developing economies 630.9 702.7 680.4 -3.2 Africa 43.2 43.4 45.8 5.5 Brazil 48.5 66.7 65.3 -2.0 China 114.7 124.0 119.7 -3.4 India 24.2 31.6 27.3 -13.5 Russian Federation 43.3 52.9 44.1 -16.6 * Revised. ** Preliminary estimates. Source: FDI inflows 2010-2012, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), January 2013. UNCTAD FDI inflows into Africa (2003–12) 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 FDI capital inflows (US$ billion) Capital inflows (% of global FDI) 3.1% 3.1% 4.4% 3.5% 18.2 30.5 51.5 52.6 43.4 45.8 2.6% 2.7% -18.3% World 2012 year on year change +5.5% Africa 2012 year on year change Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Getting down to business 29 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  32. 32. Viewpoint by Ernst & Young Sandile Hlophe Africa Leader, Transaction Advisory Services Developing sustainable private sector growth in Africa — the role of private equity Private equity (PE) firms have invested nearly US$12 billion in Africa over the last five years, and raised almost US$10 billion. Furthermore, a number of firms are currently in the market and targeting funds of US$500 million and above to invest across Africa, including BTG Pactual, Development Partners International and Carlyle. PE has a vital role to play in the growth of the private sector in Africa. The growth of SMEs in Africa is constrained by the relative scarcity of capital from banks and public markets, and high interest rates on loans. PE, therefore, provides an important alternative source of funding to facilitate the growth of these companies. However, PE firms are not just financiers of businesses in Africa. A recent study by Ernst & Young and the African Venture Capital Association* demonstrates how PE adds value over and above the provision of capital in supporting the operational and strategic growth of businesses: • Firstly, PE firms work in partnership with the management teams and entrepreneurs of companies they back, ensuring the cross- fertilization of ideas and the transfer of skills and knowledge from the PE team to the company. • Secondly, PE firms actively leverage their extensive networks to bring in additional skills and expertise to the company, identify acquisition targets, help with regulatory requirements, introduce potential clients and identify future partners for the business. • Thirdly, PE firms are instrumental in driving improvements in the environmental, social and governance policies of firms, in areas such as financial reporting and protocols, management incentive schemes, improvements in health and safety and establishing community projects, such as clinics. • Finally, PE firms are playing an important role in supporting the pan-regional development of the private sector. By supporting the operational and strategic development of companies they back, PE firms are making local companies more attractive to trade buyers from other African countries. Indeed, a third of all PE exits over the period 2007–12 went to African trade buyers. Furthermore, at the larger end of the deal spectrum, some PE firms are actively working with portfolio companies to expand their regional presence. Flexibility and adaptability are key to PE’s ability to add value to companies in Africa. PE firms invest minority or majority stakes, provide equity and quasi- debt financing (e.g., mezzanine), are sector-agnostic (although with a preference for sectors benefiting from consumer growth), can invest from as little as US$1m to over US$100m, and will buy from a range of sellers. How successful has PE’s investment been in Africa? According to Ernst & Young and Africa Venture Capital Association's (AVCA) report, PE deals have outperformed public markets, returning almost double the JSE ALSI. This strong performance benefits the entrepreneurs and companies that PE backs, as well as the PE firms themselves. What can companies do to attract PE financing? It goes without saying that companies need to have a unique growth proposition to attract PE funding. However, PE firms prefer to work with partners who are adequately skilled, dependable and trustworthy – and many PE firms will undertake due diligence on companies and management teams prior to investing. Proprietary deals are generally more attractive to PE firms, so it is important for companies to be selective about which PE firms to approach. Additionally, companies should openly engage with the PE firm from the start about the PE firm’s timeline – and requirements – for a successful exit. Given the many benefits PE confers, it is encouraging to see that PE firms are committed to investing on the continent. With the large number of private companies requiring growth capital and limited availability of alternative funding, PE is well placed to become a significant enabler of private sector growth across the African continent. * How do private equity investors create value?: 2013 Africa Study, Ernst & Young and AVCA, 2013 Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201330 Reality
  33. 33. There has been a growing focus on key sub-Saharan African markets When one looks at trends over the course of the past decade, FDI inflows into Africa tend to be dominated by a small number of countries — South Africa, Egypt and Morocco alone account for 37% of new projects over that period; add in Nigeria, Angola, Tunisia and Algeria, and that proportion goes up to over 60%. What this trend masks, though, is the strong growth in FDI inflows in more recent years into many parts of SSA. In the period since 2007, during which investment into North Africa has stagnated (largely due to recent political dynamics), FDI projects into SSA have grown at a compound rate of 22%. Among the star performers attracting growing numbers of projects have been Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Mozambique, Mauritius and South Africa. This shifting pattern is evidenced in some of the relative rankings in terms of most FDI projects for 2012, with Nigeria in tied second with Egypt, and Kenya close behind, ahead of all the other North African countries. Ghana ranks as the fourth most attractive SSA destination, and ahead of Tunisia, while Tanzania, Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and Uganda all rank ahead of Algeria. South Africa Egypt Morocco Nigeria Tunisia Algeria Angola Kenya Ghana Tanzania Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Top 10 African FDI destinations since 2003 The top 10 African country destinations have attracted 71% of new FDI projects since 2003 16.5% 977 10.5% 622 10.0% 590 6.2% 365 5.9% 348 5.8% 345 5.2% 309 4.4% 260 3.7% 218 2.7% 159 South Africa Egypt MoroccoNigeria Tunisia MozambiqueAngolaKenya Ghana Tanzania Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Top 10 African FDI destinations 2011 and 2012 Countries ranked by most new projects in 2012 154 159 60 60 95 58 54 51 39 47 35 37 26 40 31 31 28 25 52 50 2011 2012 Getting down to business 31 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  34. 34. Top key growth markets (new projects FDI) CAGR (2007–12) 2011–12 % YoY CAGR (2007–11) Ghana 50.8% Mali 300.0% Ghana 75.1% Republic of the Congo 47.6% Republic of the Congo 250.0% Cameroon 73.2% Kenya 43.1% Cote d'Ivoire 200.0% Zimbabwe 59.7% Cote d'Ivoire 43.1% Sierra Leone 200.0% Kenya 59.3% Tanzania 38.9% Libya 100.0% Tanzania 55.4% Mozambique 33.0% Mauritania 100.0% Zambia 55.2% Zambia 30.6% Benin 100.0% Mozambique 44.3% Zimbabwe 24.6% Mauritius 83.3% Burkina Faso 41.4% Cameroon 24.6% Gabon 66.7% South Africa 29.8% Nigeria 23.4% Sudan 60.0% Nigeria 24.2% Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Ghana Republic of the Congo Kenya Cote d’Ivoire Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Top 10 destinations highest growth rate in FDI projects CAGR 2007–12 50.8% 47.6% 43.1% 43.1% Tanzania ZambiaMozambique Cameroon NigeriaZimbabwe 38.9% 33.0% 30.6% 24.6% 24.6% 23.4% Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201332 Reality
  35. 35. We start up businesses from scratch. Over the years, we have become Africa’s largest IT company in terms of footprint, and Africa’s largest call center company. Today, we are exploring new sectors, including glass manufacturing, maize farming and many more. We currently operate in 19 sub-Saharan African countries, which we hope to expand to 22 by the end of this year. I believe that the real opportunities lie in creating new businesses. Our business model consists in partnering with international companies that bring in subject matter expertise, while we possess in-depth local domain knowledge. We co-invest and typically do a 50/50 joint venture. To date, we have never exited any of our businesses because there has still been such high growth. When it comes to assessing an opportunity, it comes down to having a physical presence on the ground and actually spending time in these countries. There is no substitute for that. At the end of the day, reports are only theory. Until you are on the ground, getting your hands dirty and getting a feel for what’s happening, you simply cannot assess the situation properly. Reality can be very different to perception; the perceived risk is bigger than the actual risk. In fact, the larger risk lies in your general approach. If a company deploys a “copy-and-paste” strategy, the risk automatically increases because they are just not managing it well. In terms of the challenges we face, I constantly hear about the skill deficit. However, I am convinced that this deficit can be breached. For instance, we set up a call center business two years ago, employing several thousand people in nine different countries. Starting out, the skills did not exist, but we put training mechanisms in place and today we have an oversupply. When required, we can create the skills on the ground. The willingness is there, the ability is there, and that’s what you need more than anything. Similarly, I like to look at the infrastructure challenge as an opportunity. The fact that we have to set up power units sometimes makes the entry barrier higher, because it simply increases the cost of doing business. Nevertheless, there are opportunities here too, and so it is all about about how you tap into it. Overall, strong leadership is really important. It sets the tone for how your business runs. We don’t do anything under the table; everything is done in a transparent manner. And, most importantly, we make sure that every single one of our projects has a positive social impact on the local country and its people. Some people see this as profit for purpose, but to me, it is simply running an ethical business. Being local in the true sense of the word is absolutely crucial; we are a for-profit company, but, at the same time, we strive to make a difference to communities. Mara Group is a multi-sector family business that has evolved into an investment company. Based out of Dubai, Mara has pan-African interests, with operations in 26 countries spanning 4 continents, and employs 7,000 people. Ashish J. Thakkar Founder, Mara Group “I like to look at the infrastructure challenge as an opportunity.” Interview Leading growth in Africa Getting down to business 33 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  36. 36. Emerging markets continue to grow their share of investment into Africa There was a strong resurgence in 2011 in greenfield investment from developed markets into Africa. In 2012, however, there was a decline almost across the board, with the UK being the only substantial investor into the continent that actually grew its project numbers (by 9% year on year). The US, the UK and France do, however, in that order, remain the three largest investors into the continent in cumulative terms over the past decade. In contrast to developed markets, greenfield investments from emerging markets into Africa grew in 2012, continuing the trend of the past three years. In the period since 2007, this category of investment from emerging markets into Africa has grown at a healthy compound rate of over 20%, with India, South Africa, the UAE, China, Kenya, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and South Korea all among the top 20 investors over that period. In terms of growth in project numbers since 2007, emerging market investors again stand out, with the African countries of Kenya, South Africa, Tanzania, Nigeria and Angola notably prominent. Top 20 FDI New projects source countries investing in Africa New projects (2007–12) CAGR (2007–12) United States 516 11.2% UK 456 25.1% France 398 -6.3% India 237 24.0% South Africa 235 56.5% UAE 210 13.3% Spain 194 -15.2% Germany 173 14.9% China 152 15.5% Portugal 137 -26.8% Kenya 113 60.0% Japan 105 16.3% Switzerland 105 3.7% Italy 94 3.4% Canada 86 13.2% Nigeria 78 20.1% Australia 69 -4.9% Netherlands 58 7.4% South Korea 57 51.6% Saudi Arabia 56 45.4% Other investor countries 844 Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. 80% The top 20 country investors contribute 80% of all new FDI projects for the duration of 2003–12. Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201334 Reality
  37. 37. United States United Kingdom France India South Africa UAE Spain Germany CanadaChina Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Top 10 FDI new projects source countries investing in Africa (Countries ranked by most new projects, 2003–12) 12.6% 754 10.3% 607 % share of total New projects 9.8% 583 5.2% 308 4.9% 289 4.6% 270 3.8% 225 3.8% 222 3.3% 196 3.1% 181 United Kingdom United States IndiaSouth Africa China FinlandKenyaUAE France Germany Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Top 10 FDI new projects source countries investing in Africa (Countries ranked by 2012 position) 98 124 64 6497 75 56 41 39 37 32 30 21 19 90 61 25 29 3 20 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. New projects investment from developed and emerging markets 289 563 129 336 492 255 429 249 546 321 433 331 Developed markets Emerging markets +8.4% CAGR (2007–12) developed markets +20.7% CAGR (2007–12) emerging markets Getting down to business 35 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  38. 38. South Africa emerges as a leading investor on the continent The prominence of intra-Africa investors among the growth leaders underlines a trend we have highlighted over the past few years. South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria have been leading the way with investing into other parts of Africa, but we anticipate that others, such as Angola, for example, with its US$5 billion sovereign wealth fund, will become increasingly prominent investors across the continent over the next few years. Even though 2012 intra-African projects were mostly flat year on year, the trend since 2007 has remained extremely robust, with a 32.5% compounded growth rate in project investment, more than double non-African emerging markets and almost fourfold faster than developed markets. This is a critical trend, because it underlines a growing confidence and belief in the future of the continent by Africans themselves. It is worth briefly dwelling on the growth in South African investment into the rest of the continent. South Africa is ranked fifth overall in terms of cumulative FDI project numbers in the rest of Africa since 2003. In other words, overall, South African headquartered companies have invested into the fifth most FDI projects on the continent in the past decade. These numbers have, however, increased steeply, with compound growth of 57% in South Africa-originated FDI projects into the rest of Africa since 2007. In 2012, South Africa was ranked third overall in terms of FDI projects in Africa, and, in fact, when one strips out investment from other countries into South Africa itself, it was the single largest investor in FDI projects in the rest of Africa in 2012. South Africa 5 Overall rank by cumulative new project FDI (2003–12). 536% Absolute increase in FDI new projects (2003–12). 23% 2012 YoY growth in new project FDI. 57% Growth in new project FDI (2007–12). 45,776 Cumulative FDI jobs created (2003–12). Top 3 Nigeria, Ghana, Namibia: top 3 African country destinations for new project FDI (2003–12). Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201336 Reality
  39. 39. Ongoing diversification of economic activities Another key theme that we have highlighted over the last few years has been the increasing diversification of greenfield FDI into Africa. Just as there is a common assumption that Africa’s overall economic growth has been driven by natural resources, it is also often assumed that they attract by far the largest attention from foreign investors. This is true to some extent, with the capital- intensive oil and gas sector in particular, having attracted almost 40% of greenfield FDI capital into the continent since 2003 (although the sector has only attracted 7.8% of the FDI projects for the same period). The trend, however, has been toward greater levels of investment into relatively less capital-intensive sectors, such as manufacturing and particularly services, resulting in a growing number of FDI projects in relation to the capital amounts being invested. As an example, whereas in 2003, the oil and gas and metals sectors together accounted for 28.5% of total FDI projects in Africa and 77% of FDI capital, today, they only account for 7.2% of projects and 40% of capital. In contrast, the relative share of projects for sectors such as financial services, business services and communications has grown considerably. Top 10 sectors ranked by proportional share of projects (% share ot total, 2003–12) Sums of 2003–12 2003 2012 Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Financial services 16.2% 11% 17.9% Business services 7.9% 3.9% 12.8% Coal, oil and natural gas 7.8% 17.2% 3.0% Metals 7.1% 11.3% 4.2% Communications 6.9% 3.0% 12.2% Software and IT services 6.0% 5.9% 6.3 Food and tobacco 5.3% 5.9% 6.4% Hotels and tourism 4.1% 3.9% 1.8% Automotive OEM 3.3% 4.2% 2.4% Transportation 3.3% 2.1% 3.9% Top 10 sectors ranked by number of projects and growth rate New projects (2003–12) % CAGR (2007–12) Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Financial services 958 18.4% Business services 469 22.2% Coal, oil and natural gas 461 -5.8% Metals 419 -2,9% Communications 407 32.2% Software and IT services 356 5.9% Food and tobacco 313 26.7% Hotels and tourism 240 -14.1% Automotive OEM 198 17.6% Transportation 197 30.3% 70.2% of greenfield FDI projects in Africa were in services in 2012, while 73.5% of capital was invested in manufacturing and infrastructure-related activities Getting down to business 37 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  40. 40. This diversification trend is arguably even more pronounced when one analyzes the data from the perspective of types of economic activity within and across sectors. If one breaks down the value chain in the oil and gas sector, for example, one can identify a set of activities from the extraction of the raw material through the manufacturing processes, and then a range of services (marketing, business support services, retail, and so on). In other words, even with the “extractive” industries, the process of actual extraction is only part of the overall value chain. As we examine the trends in terms of economic activity over the past decade, another seemingly mistaken assumption is highlighted: that foreign investment into the extractive sectors has simply been about extracting raw materials and sending them offshore without adding any value. What the trends show is, in fact, a considerable swing toward some form of onshore added value. Looking more broadly at the trends in economic activities across all sectors, it is clear that there has been a marked shift toward investment in more value-added activities over the past decade. In 2012 in particular, only 1.8% of greenfield FDI projects and 12% of total capital invested was in extractive activities. In contrast, 70.2% of projects in 2012 were in services (up from 57.3% for 2011 and 52.1% for the decade), while 73.5% of 2012 capital was invested in manufacturing and infrastructure-related activities (up from 69.2% in 2011 and 68.3% for the decade). Resource sector (coal, oil and natural gas, metals, and minerals) Breakdown by % contribution of economic activity as a proportional of total FDI new projects Source: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 103 projects 80 projects 100 projects 60 projects168 projects 978 projects Sum 2003–12 78 projects Extraction Services Manufacturing 19% 37% 44% 19% 26% 55% 28% 23% 49% 31% 29% 40% 32% 30% 38% 50% 27% 23% 22% 26% 52% New project FDI attracted by economic activity (% contribution over given time frame) Capital-invested FDI attracted by economic activity (% contribution over given time frame) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sum of 2003–12 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Sum of 2003–12 Sources: fDi Markets; Ernst & Young analysis. Service Manufacturing Infrastructure-related Extraction Others 18,2 45.2% 24.4% 17.5% 8.1% 4.8% 46.5% 22.8% 16.6% 10.2% 3.9% 58.8% 19.1% 12.7% 6.7% 2.7% 57.2% 21.7% 12.7% 4.7% 3.7% 57.3% 25.3% 9.6% 4.4% 3.5% 70.2% 15.4% 9.2% 1.8% 3.4% 52.1% 23.2% 12.6% 8.5% 3.5% 3.9% 24.4% 47.0% 26.1% 0.5% 2.8% 28.8% 48.2% 19.9% 0.4% 5.3% 28.4% 45.2% 20.7% 0.4% 5.6% 44.7% 30.5% 18.4% 0.7% 8.1% 39.1% 30.1% 21.8% 0.9% 13.4% 43.1% 30.4% 12.0% 1.1% 4.3% 30.3% 38.0% 26.8% 0.6% Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201338 Reality
  41. 41. Over the past decade, the number of middle-class consumers in Africa has expanded by more than 60% to 313 million, according to the African Development Bank. This growth is coming off a very low base, setting the table for what could be years, or even decades, of rapid economic progress. The International Monetary Fund projects that 7 of the 10 fastest-growing economies in the world from 2011–15 will be in sub-Saharan Africa, and it expects Africa to take from Asia the title of the world’s fastest-growing region. Such reports form part of an increasing body of evidence demonstrating the existence of a fast-growing consumer class across the continent. Despite this growing evidence, there remains a lack of insight about the reality of doing business in Africa. Many investors and business people still see Africa as a high-risk proposition, which has prevented them from venturing into the opportunity and the potential that this region offers. This has been propagated by media keen on outlining the less-favourable aspects of the continent. Despite these perceptions, the reality of Africa is quite different. Economists expect to see US$1.4 trillion in spending by African consumers in 2020. Over the next five years, the average African economy will outpace Asian counterparts. The continent is extraordinarily rich in minerals, energy resources and uncultivated land. Although less than half of its land has been surveyed, Africa is thought to hold more than half of the world’s gold, more than 40% of its platinum and vast deposits of copper, diamonds and iron ore. Large new oil and natural gas fields are being discovered across the patch. According to the United Nations, Africa also holds more that 60% of the world’s uncultivated land, yet only 10% is currently planted. Greater disposable income, a developing consumer banking infrastructure and the sponsorship of entrepreneurs mean more Africans are getting richer; South Africa alone has 71,000 dollar millionaires. The African consumer is not only a reality, but is increasingly empowered to spend. I am often asked who the African consumer is. It would be short-sighted to qualify consumers as one generic type, such is the great diversity of Africa and Africans. However, the one factor that is common to all is the need to demonstrate new-found economic and social status through quality branded products, and to aspire to brands that reflect inherent values. At Brandhouse, our brands satisfy these needs. At the recent Ernst & Young Strategic Growth Forum, it was pointed out that consumer segmentation is critical to driving business on the continent. Segmentation is highly pertinent, given the diversities that exist across regions and individual countries, and allows us to market, innovate and create brand experiences across a broad range of consumer segments. While segmentation is a first step, to be profitable, companies must understand the consumer insights and act upon them with pace. Indeed, every consumer segment is different and, at the Ernst & Young Strategic Growth Forum, delegates were reminded not to forget rural consumers or rule out those at the base of the economic pyramid. These consumers are increasingly enfranchised into the formal sector and offer companies such as Diageo opportunities to participate in this segment. Critical to building scale among lower-income consumers is to provide products that are accessible and affordable, and therefore routes-to-market and flexible supply chains are crucial. A case that comes to mind is that of Senator Keg, which, through innovation in supply and distribution, along with viable tax structures, has led to a strong performance of the brand in East Africa. I believe that our success can be attributed to a match between the product, a social need and the consumer desire for a quality branded product. The African consumer is a reality. Many investment opportunities on the continent are under-researched, underappreciated and, consequently, undervalued. African investments are currently cheaper relative to their growth potential. Businesses that choose to ignore this fact do so at their own peril, because the cost of entry into Africa will be higher in the future. Brandhouse is the joint venture in South Africa between international beverage companies Diageo, Heineken and Namibia Breweries. Gerald Mahinda Managing Director, Brandhouse “Consumer segmentation is critical to driving business across Africa’s regions and individual countries.” Interview The rise of the African consumer: myth or reality Getting down to business 39 www.ey.com/attractiveness
  42. 42. PerceptionHow Africa is viewed by foreign investors p.42  Perceptions of Africa’s attractiveness remain positive p.43  Africa’s attractiveness relative to other regions has improved p.44  There has been a marked shift in sector focus p.46  South Africa is perceived as the most attractive investment destination p.47   The perception gap remains a significant factor Luanda at night. Ernst & Young’s attractiveness survey Africa 201340
  1. A particular slide catching your eye?

    Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

×