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Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers
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Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers

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Extreme phenomena – Floods in transboundary rivers …

Extreme phenomena – Floods in transboundary rivers
International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia

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  • 1. Extreme phenomena – Floods International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management Extreme phenomena – Floods in transboundary rivers Dr. Enrique Cifres Advisor MENBO Mediterranean Networl of Basin Organizations
  • 2. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres The annual cost to the world economy, of flooding and other water-related disasters, is between US$ 50 and US$ 60 billion The 2002 floods in Europe claimed 100 lives and caused US$ 20 billion in damage.
  • 3. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres In Asia, between 1987 and 1997, floods claimed an ..but average of 22,800 lives per annum and caused an estimated US$ 136 billion in economic damage -Floods accounted for half of the total disasters, -water-borne and vector disease outbreaks accounted for 28% and -drought accounted for 11% of the total disasters.It is estimated that one billionpeople, one sixth of the globalpopulation -the majority of themamong the worlds poorestinhabitants -live on flood plainstoday
  • 4. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Transboudnary river basinsWorldwide shared basins mean 48% of After landICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
  • 5. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Transboudnary river basins Main flooding areas SEE Countries Danube basin Adraitic and Aegean basinsWorldwide shared basins mean 48% of After landICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
  • 6. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Transboudnary river basins Main flooding areasWorldwide shared basins mean 48% of After landICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
  • 7. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres >400.000 direct casualties XX Century Indirect: related diseases, plagues, direct deaths 1931 – 145,000 economic losses, poverty.. 1935 – 142,000 1954 – 30,000 Yangtse River-206 a.c. TodayHan Dinasty Every 10 years 216 floods
  • 8. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Due to heavy storms orprolongated seasonal rains
  • 9. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Lake SarezTadzhikistan .. but also caused by GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS
  • 10. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Amongst the 200 International river basins worldwide, 55 are situated in Africa, where 80% of water resources are shared By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso) 10
  • 11. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres How to fight against floods? MODIFYING NATUREFlood control dams as morefriendly alternativesEven some dams supportedby green NGO’s
  • 12. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres <80-90’sStructural measures
  • 13. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresPast mistakes- lessons for the future
  • 14. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresLesson learnt: Multipurpose projects. Sustainable operation
  • 15. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresEFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCEFUNCTION) F 1 NATURAL REGIME RISK REDUCTION DUE TO FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS 0 Q
  • 16. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresEFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION IMPOSED(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCEFUNCTION) F 1 NATURAL REGIME RISK REDUCTION DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODS FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS REMAIN PROBABLE BE AWARE OF INDUCED FALSE SAFETY 0 Q
  • 17. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres <80-90’s 90’sStructural measures Non structural measures Just management
  • 18. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Will we be able to face requiered floodmitigation challenges without phisical actions?
  • 19. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres <80-90’s 90’s Late 90’s and XXIst centStructural measures Non structural measures Both plus proactive strategies Just management
  • 20. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres•Induced false safety•Growth of vulnerabilityThe increasing pressure of urban and industrialdevelopment on metropolitan areas means a growthin the value of settled capital.Investments on protection measures, structural or not,has to be based on a concept of sustainability, so thatthe creation of infrastructures do not generate an Bco. la Saleta. 26/10/00acceleration of the vulnerability of the territory.WOULD BE IT IS POSSIBLE?Non structural measures:: Incentives to leave flood plains, Land use management Appropriate warning systems, Emergency plans Insurance policies, etc
  • 21. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres GOVERNANCE? Amongst the 200 International river basins worldwide, 55 are situated in Africa, where 80% of water resources are shared By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso) 21
  • 22. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres BORDER (no for water)
  • 23. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
  • 24. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresImpacts of Climate Change on floods Precipitation amount, Air temperature timing and typeRunoff timing and Sea level risequantity
  • 25. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresAre we able to assess really high return period floods? Extrapolation con present statistics Raingauge = RAFELCOFER. SQRT GUMBEL GEV TCEV T=500 T=100 T=50 Uncertainty!! T=10 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL
  • 26. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresEffects of climate changeSensitivity analysis. Just modifying the temperature of sea waterit’s possible to estimate a new distribution function of probabilitiesand new expected risks. 1 00 000 10.000 Precipitation Peak flow of 10 000 of the storm the flood Periodo de retorno (años) 1.000 Pe rio d o d e reto rn o 1 000 100 100 Dp Referencia 10 10 Dp +3ºC Dp Ref e renc ia Dp +3 º C 1 Probability of catastrophic 1 0 20 0 4 00 600 8 00 100 0 floods would be 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 P r e c ip itac ió n m e dia Caudal punta (m 3/seg) considerabily increased Climate change
  • 27. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Conclusions… may be just comments  Risk 0 never will be reached by humankind  Negotiate with nature. Don’t forget the fable of “Tang and the Tree”  River cannot be divided by reaches. Floods cross borders without visa  Regarding climate change, remember “precaution principle”Valencia, 1957
  • 28. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Thank you for your attentionDr. Enrique CifresAdvisorMediterranean Network of Basin Organizartions

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