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Extreme phenomena – Floods                International Roundtable on                                       Transboundary ...
International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management       MENBO     Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011         Dr. Enrique Ci...
International Roundtable on                                    Transboundary Waters Management       MENBO                ...
International Roundtable on                                                 Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO       ...
International Roundtable on                                                 Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO       ...
International Roundtable on                                                 Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO       ...
International Roundtable on                         Transboundary Waters Management       MENBO                           ...
International Roundtable on         Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO              Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011     Dr. ...
International Roundtable on                      Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                           Zagreb,...
International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management             MENBO     Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011               Dr...
International Roundtable on                             Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                           ...
International Roundtable on                      Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                           Zagreb,...
International Roundtable on                     Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                          Zagreb, 1...
International Roundtable on                       Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                            Zagre...
International Roundtable on                              Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                          ...
International Roundtable on                                  Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                      ...
International Roundtable on                                 Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                       ...
International Roundtable on                    Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                         Zagreb, 15-...
International Roundtable on                                 Transboundary Waters Management         MENBO                 ...
International Roundtable on                                          Transboundary Waters Management              MENBO   ...
International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management     MENBO     Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011       Dr. Enrique Cifres...
International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management   MENBO     Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011     Dr. Enrique Cifres    ...
International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management   MENBO     Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011     Dr. Enrique Cifres
International Roundtable on                     Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                          Zagreb, 1...
International Roundtable on                             Transboundary Waters Management                    MENBO          ...
International Roundtable on                                                                                   Transboundar...
International Roundtable on                  Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO                       Zagreb, 15-16th...
International Roundtable on                                            Transboundary Waters Management   MENBO            ...
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Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers

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Extreme phenomena – Floods in transboundary rivers
International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia

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Transcript of "Int. Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management, 15-16.12.2011, Enrique Cifers"

  1. 1. Extreme phenomena – Floods International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management Extreme phenomena – Floods in transboundary rivers Dr. Enrique Cifres Advisor MENBO Mediterranean Networl of Basin Organizations
  2. 2. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres The annual cost to the world economy, of flooding and other water-related disasters, is between US$ 50 and US$ 60 billion The 2002 floods in Europe claimed 100 lives and caused US$ 20 billion in damage.
  3. 3. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres In Asia, between 1987 and 1997, floods claimed an ..but average of 22,800 lives per annum and caused an estimated US$ 136 billion in economic damage -Floods accounted for half of the total disasters, -water-borne and vector disease outbreaks accounted for 28% and -drought accounted for 11% of the total disasters.It is estimated that one billionpeople, one sixth of the globalpopulation -the majority of themamong the worlds poorestinhabitants -live on flood plainstoday
  4. 4. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Transboudnary river basinsWorldwide shared basins mean 48% of After landICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
  5. 5. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Transboudnary river basins Main flooding areas SEE Countries Danube basin Adraitic and Aegean basinsWorldwide shared basins mean 48% of After landICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
  6. 6. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Transboudnary river basins Main flooding areasWorldwide shared basins mean 48% of After landICOLD Report on Shared Rivers
  7. 7. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres >400.000 direct casualties XX Century Indirect: related diseases, plagues, direct deaths 1931 – 145,000 economic losses, poverty.. 1935 – 142,000 1954 – 30,000 Yangtse River-206 a.c. TodayHan Dinasty Every 10 years 216 floods
  8. 8. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Due to heavy storms orprolongated seasonal rains
  9. 9. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Lake SarezTadzhikistan .. but also caused by GEOLOGICAL HAZARDS
  10. 10. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Amongst the 200 International river basins worldwide, 55 are situated in Africa, where 80% of water resources are shared By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso) 10
  11. 11. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres How to fight against floods? MODIFYING NATUREFlood control dams as morefriendly alternativesEven some dams supportedby green NGO’s
  12. 12. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres <80-90’sStructural measures
  13. 13. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresPast mistakes- lessons for the future
  14. 14. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresLesson learnt: Multipurpose projects. Sustainable operation
  15. 15. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresEFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCEFUNCTION) F 1 NATURAL REGIME RISK REDUCTION DUE TO FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS 0 Q
  16. 16. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresEFFECTS OF FLOOD PROTECTION IMPOSED(PROBABILITY NON EXCEEDENCEFUNCTION) F 1 NATURAL REGIME RISK REDUCTION DUE TO CATASTROPHIC FLOODS FLOOD PROTECTION WORKS REMAIN PROBABLE BE AWARE OF INDUCED FALSE SAFETY 0 Q
  17. 17. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres <80-90’s 90’sStructural measures Non structural measures Just management
  18. 18. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Will we be able to face requiered floodmitigation challenges without phisical actions?
  19. 19. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres <80-90’s 90’s Late 90’s and XXIst centStructural measures Non structural measures Both plus proactive strategies Just management
  20. 20. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres•Induced false safety•Growth of vulnerabilityThe increasing pressure of urban and industrialdevelopment on metropolitan areas means a growthin the value of settled capital.Investments on protection measures, structural or not,has to be based on a concept of sustainability, so thatthe creation of infrastructures do not generate an Bco. la Saleta. 26/10/00acceleration of the vulnerability of the territory.WOULD BE IT IS POSSIBLE?Non structural measures:: Incentives to leave flood plains, Land use management Appropriate warning systems, Emergency plans Insurance policies, etc
  21. 21. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres GOVERNANCE? Amongst the 200 International river basins worldwide, 55 are situated in Africa, where 80% of water resources are shared By Mr. Nombre Adama (ICOLD, Burkina Faso) 21
  22. 22. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres BORDER (no for water)
  23. 23. International Roundtable onTransboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres
  24. 24. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresImpacts of Climate Change on floods Precipitation amount, Air temperature timing and typeRunoff timing and Sea level risequantity
  25. 25. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresAre we able to assess really high return period floods? Extrapolation con present statistics Raingauge = RAFELCOFER. SQRT GUMBEL GEV TCEV T=500 T=100 T=50 Uncertainty!! T=10 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 MAXIMUM DAILY RAINFALL
  26. 26. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique CifresEffects of climate changeSensitivity analysis. Just modifying the temperature of sea waterit’s possible to estimate a new distribution function of probabilitiesand new expected risks. 1 00 000 10.000 Precipitation Peak flow of 10 000 of the storm the flood Periodo de retorno (años) 1.000 Pe rio d o d e reto rn o 1 000 100 100 Dp Referencia 10 10 Dp +3ºC Dp Ref e renc ia Dp +3 º C 1 Probability of catastrophic 1 0 20 0 4 00 600 8 00 100 0 floods would be 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 P r e c ip itac ió n m e dia Caudal punta (m 3/seg) considerabily increased Climate change
  27. 27. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Conclusions… may be just comments  Risk 0 never will be reached by humankind  Negotiate with nature. Don’t forget the fable of “Tang and the Tree”  River cannot be divided by reaches. Floods cross borders without visa  Regarding climate change, remember “precaution principle”Valencia, 1957
  28. 28. International Roundtable on Transboundary Waters Management MENBO Zagreb, 15-16th Dec 2011 Dr. Enrique Cifres Thank you for your attentionDr. Enrique CifresAdvisorMediterranean Network of Basin Organizartions
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