0
There and Back Again Cameron Muir Chief Economist Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Coquitlam, BC December 8, 2...
Housing Market Rebound
Sales Rebound From Crisis Lows Economic Expansion; Declining Mortgage Rates; Pent-Up Demand Residential MLS® Unit Sales (S...
Units Units Source: BCREA Economics Residential Supply & Demand British Columbia
Sales-to-Active Listings (seasonally adjusted) Per Cent Balanced Regional Differences Significant Source: BCREA Economics
Large Urban Centres Rebound  Buyers’ Balanced Sellers’ 3-month moving average Sales-to-Active Listings Sources: BC Real Es...
Units Sources: CREA, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Sales Outpace Expectations REBGV MLS® Unit Sales (SAAR) Doe...
 
Housing Affordability – Spring 2009 Mortgage Payment* Mar-09 Mar-08 Change $ Change % Lowest Since Victoria $2,166 $2,873 ...
Sources:CREA, BCREA Prices Reaching for Record Highs <ul><li>Single-Detached Home Sales Driving Price Growth </li></ul><ul...
Inflation Adjusted Dollars  Sources: Statistics Canada, CREA, BCREA Per Cent Mortgage   Rate Average   Payment Affordabili...
Sources: VREB, BCREA Prices Rebound on Demand, Low Supply <ul><li>All Product Types Share in Price Recovery </li></ul><ul>...
Inflation Adjusted Dollars  Sources: Statistics Canada, CREA, BCREA Per Cent Mortgage   Rate Average   Payment Affordabili...
Sources: Bank of Canada, BCREA How Close Are We Affordability Ceiling? What Are the Risks? Price Risk  Rate Risk Inflation...
Sources: Bank of Canada, BC Real Estate Association 5-Year 1-Year Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly in 2010 Fixed Rate Variable...
Global Economic Malaise
Per Cent  Sources: International Monetary Fund  WEO (July 2009), BCREA  GDP Growth at Constant Dollars Global Recession Sl...
Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Chained 2002 Dollars Canada GDP Dollars (Millions) Slow and Choppy Canadian Recovery Jun...
Index Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Equities Rally, But Still Recouping Loss 45% 40%
SAAR Units (x 1,000) Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA US Starts BC Sawn Lumber Production (RHS) % change US Housing Botto...
Sources: US Census Bureau, BCREA Estimates Ratio of Vacant-to-Occupied Housing 1985 – 2002 Trend 1975 – 2008 Trend US Hous...
Sources: FRED®, BCREA Annualized Auto Sales (Millions) Cash for Clunkers – Temporary Reprieve
Dollars (Millions) Inflation Adjusted Sources: FRED®, BCREA US Consumers Per Cent Retail Trade (LHS) Unemployment Rate (RHS)
$(millions) Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted Exports Continue to Struggle
Sources: english.freemap.ca, BC Stats, BC Real Estate Association -27% PRC: +22% Japan: -28% S. Korea: -12% 2009 YTD -28% ...
Sources: english.freemap.ca, BC Stats, BC Real Estate Association 53.1% PRC: 6.1% Japan: 15.1% S. Korea: 5.9% 2008 0.7% 1....
Export Revenue Per Capita Source: Urban Futures – based on 2001 data
Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA $US/CDN Loonie Rises, Greenback Weakens Commodity Price Index Exchange Rate
Index Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Confidence Improving, Buying Flat Per Cent Confidence Retail Sales Growth
Room Revenues (Dollars x1,000)  Sources: BC Stats, BCREA Tourism Demand Wanes
Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Unemployment Rate Employment (x 1,000) <ul><li>Unemployment Rate Stabilizes </li></ul><u...
BC Employment Forecast 2007 - 2017 Source: COPS BC Unique Scenario
Units Sources: CREA, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Projected Sales Range Sales Outpace Expectations BC MLS® Un...
Units Sources: CREA, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Vancouver Forecast Range REBGV MLS® Unit Sales (SAAR)
Units Sources: Statistics Canada, Urban Futures BC Homeownership Rates
Per Cent  Sources: VIREB 2008 Buyer Profile, BCREA  <ul><li>Parksville/Qualicum, Campbell River are Preferred Destinations...
Building Permits (Residential) Sources: CMHC, BCREA Urban Housing Starts 45+ Year Low? 20 Year Average
Individuals Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Risk of Multi-Decade Low Starts
Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Inventory Tops Below Previous Cycles Under Const...
Individuals Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Migration Still Strong Despite Recession Total (RHS)
Net Change  Sources: BC Stats P.E.O.P.L.E Model Per Cent Growth 55+ = 36% of  Population  BC Population Distribution - 2028
MLS® Prices to Plateau Price Forecast Per Cent Change BC Average MLS ®  Price Sources: CREA, BCREA
<ul><li>Current market strength fuelled by pent-up demand and low mortgage rates </li></ul><ul><li>Pull-back in sales acti...
 
Per Cent Sources: Canadian Bankers Association, Statistics Canada BCREA *Annualized, Population denotes those aged 15+ Mor...
Sources: CFIB Business Barometer ® , BCREA Monthly Quarterly Business Outlook Improves  -22%
Per  Cent Sources: Bank of Canada, BCREA Core Inflation Target Inflation Band Total Consumer Inflation Low Inflation Dampe...
Per Cent  Sources: BC Stats, BC Government September Update Budget and Fiscal Plan, , BCREA, NBER US Recessions BC Economy...
Sources: Bank of Canada, BC Real Estate Association 5-Year 1-Year Mortgage Rates to Rise Modestly in 2010 Fixed Rate Varia...
Units Sources:CREA, BCREA Sales To Remain at Healthy Levels
Building Permits (Residential) Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Residential Building Low but Improving YTD July: -64% Sin...
Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Inventory Tops Below Previous Cycles Under Const...
Ratio (3m moving average) Sources: VIREB, BCREA Buyers’ Balanced Sellers’ All Markets Show Improvement Mar Sept
Sources: CHBA-BC, Altus Group, BCREA Ready or Not – Harmonized Sales Tax Home Price  (x 1,000) Additional Tax  CHBA-BC/Alt...
BC a Population Growth Leader Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Per Cent
Building Permits (Residential) Sources: Statistics Canada, CREA, BCREA Residential Building Intentions Low  YTD July BC: -...
Sources:  CMHC, BC Real Estate Association YTD August New Housing Starts  -80% -71% -11% -65% -63%
Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Nanaimo New Home Supply Swells Under Constructio...
Capital Region Price Distribution - 2008 Units Sources: BC Assessment Authority, BCREA  35% Below $275K
Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Unemployment Rate Employment (x 1,000) <ul><li>Unemployment Rate Remains Low </li></ul><...
Units Sources: VREB. CREA, BC Real Estate Association Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Projected Sales Range Sales Outp...
Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Victoria CMA New Home Inventory  Under Construct...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

BC Real Estate Association: GVHBA Trends 2010 presentation

1,238

Published on

This is a copy of Cameron Muir, chief economist, BC Real Estate Association, presentation at GVHBA's Trends 2010 seminar on December 8, 2009. Please note all information shared in this presentation is the property of BCREA and usage of the information requires crediting BCREA as the information source.

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,238
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
10
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • The volatility in sales this year has been astounding. Prior to the financial crisis, sales were already trending lower. High prices and rising interest rates lowered affordability, yielding lower housing demand and prices. As we know, everything accelerated after the collapse of Lehman Bros, and home sale and price declines intensified from November to about March It has been night and day. Seasonally adjusted; sales have doubled since the beginning of the year To put early year home sales in perspective, sales adjusted for population were lowest since the early 1980’s The consensus was that sales and home prices would remain low, as the worst recession in over 50 years worked its way through the economy. The worst case scenario has been averted thanks in large part to government and central bank action around the world helped slow the economic downturn and slashed interest costs
  • The province has moved from a buyers’ market to a balanced market in recent months; but this figure masks the regional differences Market conditions are improved in most areas of the province, but driven by activity in larger urban markets Areas with a greater share of local buyers, less resource dependency, and more diversified economies have turned around more quickly than other regions The south coast and the capital region area are all in Sellers’ markets Other area in the province are gradually moving into balanced conditions. This is the result of the pull-back in recreational and discretionary buying, challenges in the resource sectors and cascading impact these sectors have on local employment Victoria currently has one of the strongest markets in the province. After flirting with a buyers market earlier this year a combination of higher demand due primarily to low borrowing costs and pent-up and carry-forward demand and low inventories have essentially a shortage in housing availability. Sellers have been in the drivers seat since about May
  • This brings us back to the the explosion in sales since March despite the tepid macro economic underpinnnings Here in Victoria, sales are tracking an annualized rate of about 105-115000 in recent months, we expect around 84000 to be the more natural trend Clearly the factors are affordability and pent-up demand have boosted this market-
  • As prices fell it became increasingly more expensive to refinance homes as higher default risk was added to rates. Lenders unwilling to lend to sub-prime market. Stranglehold on demand, jumbo loans are seen as too risky For those with low equity, or option ARMs or other exotic loans, this meant negative equity. Walking away from the mortgage was rational as they were paying down a home that surpassed the value of the home. Some firms like Merril Lynch (-15% 2008), 2009 - 10% NAR -5.8% Q4
  • Sellers’ Conditions in Victoria have pushed up prices, particularly in the Single-Detached Market Prices in this market segment that are very close to early 2008 levels. Apartments are still about 10% below peak, due to the excess new inventory that had to be worked off in that segment. Nonetheless overall pricing has firmed. While a high number of sales is a good thing, given the backdrop of the economic environment, it may not be sustainable moving forward We expect a pull-back in sales to a level more in tune with a weaker economy, with price to begin to plateau as affordability once agains becomes an issue moving forward
  • Affordability has driven home ownership demand – the average payment for a new buyer plunged 26% from peak in March May be breached by price changes or minor upticks in mortgage rates
  • Sellers’ Conditions in Victoria have pushed up prices, particularly in the Single-Detached Market Prices in this market segment that are very close to early 2008 levels. Apartments are still about 10% below peak, due to the excess new inventory that had to be worked off in that segment. Nonetheless overall pricing has firmed. While a high number of sales is a good thing, given the backdrop of the economic environment, it may not be sustainable moving forward We expect a pull-back in sales to a level more in tune with a weaker economy, with price to begin to plateau as affordability once agains becomes an issue moving forward
  • Affordability has driven home ownership demand – the average payment for a new buyer plunged 26% from peak in March May be breached by price changes or minor upticks in mortgage rates
  • At current rates 10% price up or 1 percentage ppoint increase in rates
  • Mortgage Rates are Low – Full Stop Fixed Rates have plunged 2 – 3 percentage points depending on fixed rate Variable rates have fallen to below 3 per cent For those who are secure in their job, have found this a great time to buy. For the near term, these rates are expected to stick around Low inflation and choppy recovery keeps policy rate low Longer-term inflation expectation held in check Feds continue to securitize high number of mortgages Risk averse consumers continue to invest more in low yield accounts
  • Despite the resale market- one of the few glimmers of light in the BC econony Many of the economic challenges facing our province and our population is outside of our control, and reflects the ongoing impact of the global slow down, the credit markets conditions and global trade. For our small trading economy to improve, we need a recovery in the broader economy. There is evidence that a number of economies around the world are pulling out of recession and stabilizing, at least technically. IMF has upward revised global growth forecasts, but still expects a recovery to be slow and sluggish factors: Much of the growth is temporary – fiscal and monetary stimulus (Cash for Clunkers, housing tax incentive; Canada Action Plan) governments scaling back stimulus Inventory Restocking Too much slack in the economy and low private demand Rising unemployment households rebuilding balance sheets after asset value collapses Emerging powerhouses are expected to lead the way in terms of growth, helpiong commodity prices rebound, which may be good for Canada, given our resource base.
  • Canada’s recession has been relatively mild by global standards, a - plain vanilla mortgage market and more conservative banking policies perhaps - Dumb Luck -strong base of natural resources which have rebounded relatively quickly. Technical recession may have ended in June (+.1%), which showed a positive GDP reading. However, July GDP growth came in below consensus, despite growth in the manufacturing sector which was hit hard during the recession – once again thanks to the US and the cash-for-clunkers program. Unspectacular , Tilted L shaped recovery Canadian Growth negatively impacted by Exchange Rate
  • On the Consumer population is still adjusting behaviour to the new economic environment Despite a massive rebound since March, equity markets remain about 25% below peak Consumers have been stung by equity markets tumbled late last year and early this year, dividends have been cut some of the gains have been recouped, but the market is still down significantly from peak. At the end of the day this drop reflects wealth declines that impact the consumers willingness to spend.
  • The US housing markets look to have finally bottomed. Small solace to BC lumber producers. It can’t get much worse, but it was already pretty bad As the US housing market has bottomed, so has the bc lumber market –but it will be a long time before our forestry communities rebound.
  • Moving Forward the US market probably won’t get much worse, but it won’t get better quickly- the market is still over supplied There were more than 18 million homes vacant in Q4 of 2008. By my estimation, this means that there are roughly 2-3 million homes that need to be either absorbed by the population or demolished to get us back to equilibrium Population gains will help to sap up some of this inventory
  • $3 billion program; incentive to get more efficient cars $3500 - $4000 each Lowest levels since 1981 Remember though, population has increased 33% since that time in the US
  • US Consumers Aren’t doing what they are best at – buying (70% of the market) Rather given the drops in home prices, massive job losses, (unemployment is up close to 10%), they are pulling back on spending and are saving more. Home prices in the US have bottomed and have been flat since March – down 30% since peaking in 2006 This makes sense, they need to rebuild their balance sheets and recognizing that their expected income projections won’t come to fruition More recently, sales have started to see a slight uptick, which is a positive sign, but still the market is dragging. Generally this is not good for Canada, BC or the global recovery
  • Forestry has been a significant contributor to export woes. Except for agriculture and fish, export volumes are down significantly. (-24% YTD y/y) Big declines in the mineral product sector, energy, wood products – Major impacts of the recession on commodity prices and wood demand
  • April 14 While Chinese growth is spurring global growth, they still represent a fraction of what BC exports to the US. We are not as dependent on the US as the rest of Canada (75% of exports) There does not exist a decoupling of BC and US economic activity. Maybe in the future but not at the moment. Growth in China will help to offset, but we are not there yet. About 60% of our exports go to our Southern neighbors, and while this is a little lower than a couple years back, given the proximity and transport efficiencies, the US will continue to be our largest market Any pain in the US markets will definitely hurt BC
  • April 14 While Chinese growth is spurring global growth, they still represent a fraction of what BC exports to the US. We are not as dependent on the US as the rest of Canada (75% of exports) There does not exist a decoupling of BC and US economic activity. Maybe in the future but not at the moment. Growth in China will help to offset, but we are not there yet. About 60% of our exports go to our Southern neighbors, and while this is a little lower than a couple years back, given the proximity and transport efficiencies, the US will continue to be our largest market Any pain in the US markets will definitely hurt BC
  • We will continue to see a back and forth in terms of the export sector. An improvement in global demand should help to boost our exports particularly of commodities, but many firms will continue to be impacted. The Canadian exchange rate vis-à-vis the US has risen, eroding our competitive advantage to the US
  • The macro economy, and consumer financial situation are significant determinants of confidence. Confidence drives purchasing behaviour While confidence is quietly improving, as people feel the worst has passed, we are still below the long term trend and consumers are still in a recessionary state of mind
  • Not only has this impacted our goods export sector, but obviously our service export sector has been impacted Tourism measured by room revenues; Occupancy rates were down 6 per cent yr/yr; air passenger traffic down
  • Meanwhile, BC has had its share of Canada’s job losses shedding about 55,000 positions The unemployment rate has flattened to around 7.4 per cent from around 4 per cent Labour markets in the North and Okanagan, which are geared towards the hard hit forestry sectors, base materials and tourism, have been particularly affected. Here in Victoria, the labour market remains relatively robust all thing equal, despite a loss of 9,000 jobs in the last year. The unemployment rate has doubled, going from one of the lowest in the country to middle of the pack; but it is still lowest in BC. Many of the losses have come from the tourism and discretionary sectors. Given the current economy, these types of industries will remain under duress as consumers cut back on discretionary purposes. The strength of the public sector, despite wage freezes and cutbacks remains a pillar of stability for the region, and along with a larger retiree segment, will keep the underlying economy stable. The unemployment rate is not severe here and not a huge cause for concern.
  • This brings us back to the the explosion in sales since March despite the tepid macro economic underpinnnings Here in Victoria, sales are tracking an annualized rate of about 105-115000 in recent months, we expect around 84000 to be the more natural trend Clearly the factors are affordability and pent-up demand have boosted this market-
  • This brings us back to the the explosion in sales since March despite the tepid macro economic underpinnnings Here in Victoria, sales are tracking an annualized rate of about 105-115000 in recent months, we expect around 84000 to be the more natural trend Clearly the factors are affordability and pent-up demand have boosted this market-
  • Near 70% homeownershp rate- a significant increase over the last 5 years
  • While the home sales have rebound significantly, the same can’t be said about the new home market Sales have fallen off a cliff in the recession as a sharp downturn in consumer demand, credit and financing costs have cut starts, particularly on the multiple family side Tale of two markets that have a tendency to move together, sales as a leader- the question is, does the rebound in sales represent a major rebound in new home starts?
  • We expect sales to start to ramp down The economy remains a challenge and we aren’t going to bounce back quickly We will use up the pent-up demand, and affordability may be near a ceiling, as price momentum and some rate increases over the next year dampen activity
  • Better Inventory Management Higher population, but lower units in inventory Low starts and falling U/C should keep inventory in check
  • International still second best in decade in 2009 despite recession As expected, economic downturn has curtailed interprovincial migration in 2009- many interprovincial migrants are eonomic migrants
  • Look at what this means in 20 years Within 20 years, 36% of BC will be over 55 years of age. Different age groups have different needs, and while we don’t expect them to leave Vancouver and other major cities in droves, the demand for quieter, but active communities will be higher
  • Downside Risk? Economy double dips and demand pulls back Wealth shock Funding gets more expensive in mortgage markets
  • The financial and quality of life benefits of home ownership
  • Intro: Thank Garret for the speaking invitation and the introduction Current economic environment experienced 5-6 bullish years in the major stock markets, strong expansion in the economy, massive home appreciation However, It has been increasingly apparent over the last 6 months that changes imminent as the US experiences a significant economic downturn. Today we will be taking a look at our economy and Housing markets. Feel free to interrupt me if you have any questions or raise a discussion.
  • Undoubtedly, the challenging job market, wealth declines etc are having an impact on consumer finances. We have seen deliquent mortgages and bankruptcies rise. Nonetheless, mortgages in arrears are still low – reflecting the ability to pay due to stable interest rates, and only modest job losses
  • Nonetheless business has picked up some from the depth of recession In fact, small and medium businesses have a more optimistic out look than in recent months, but keep this in perspective. Hardly as confidet as wh2005/06 period, and they are not looking to ramp up employment Capacity utilization has continued to drop, but stabilizing – suggests a lot of slack
  • The weak economy and joblessness, slong with low inflation means there is little pressure to raising policy interest rates that impact variables
  • In BC the general consensus forecast is that the economy will slowly recover over the next couple of years. But Don’t expect the 3-5 per cent growth we have been accustomed to in recent years The BC economy will contract in the neighbourhood of around 2 per cent this year, alongside Canada. Next the province has projected a sub 2 per cent growth rate as the global recovery slowly unfolds. This is consistent with BCREA’s forecast, which projected slightly higher growth than the province. BC will still face a number of challenges in 2010, but will get a boost from the economic activity generated by the Olympics as well as benefit from demand for commodities from emerging markets which are still growing at a strong pace
  • Mortgage Rates are Low – Full Stop Fixed Rates have plunged 2 – 3 percentage points depending on fixed rate Variable rates have fallen to below 3 per cent For those who are secure in their job, have found this a great time to buy. For the near term, these rates are expected to stick around Low inflation and choppy recovery keeps policy rate low Longer-term inflation expectation held in check Feds continue to securitize high number of mortgages Risk averse consumers continue to invest more in low yield accounts
  • We expect sales to start to ramp down The economy remains a challenge and we aren’t going to bounce back quickly We will use up the pent-up demand, and affordability may be near a ceiling, as price momentum and some rate increases over the next year dampen activity
  • One of the big drivers of employment and growth in BC is still very weak. Access to credit markets, consumer uncertainty and issues surrounding the coming HST continues to hold back new home activity
  • Better Inventory Management Higher population, but lower units in inventory Low starts and falling U/C should keep inventory in check
  • Essentiall the rebalancing has occurred in nearly all areas of the board. Nanaimo in particular has rebounded into sellers conditions this is reflective of a lot of the other urban centres which have a much larger component of local buyers and non-discretionary buyers port alberni- hit from forestry and a shrinking population
  • We expect sales to start to ramp down The economy remains a challenge and we aren’t going to bounce back quickly We will use up the pent-up demand, and affordability may be near a ceiling, as price momentum and some rate increases over the next year dampen activity
  • The province has moved from a buyers’ market to a balanced market in recent months; but this figure masks the regional differences Market conditions are improved in most areas of the province, but driven by activity in larger urban markets Areas with a greater share of local buyers, less resource dependency, and more diversified economies have turned around more quickly than other regions The south coast and the capital region area are all in Sellers’ markets Other area in the province are gradually moving into balanced conditions. This is the result of the pull-back in recreational and discretionary buying, challenges in the resource sectors and cascading impact these sectors have on local employment Victoria currently has one of the strongest markets in the province. After flirting with a buyers market earlier this year a combination of higher demand due primarily to low borrowing costs and pent-up and carry-forward demand and low inventories have essentially a shortage in housing availability. Sellers have been in the drivers seat since about May
  • One of the big drivers of employment and growth in BC is still very weak. Access to credit markets, consumer uncertainty and issues surrounding the coming HST continues to hold back new home activity
  • Consensus forecasts have economic growth in BC surpassing the national average. Forecasters seem to suggest that we will weather the storm here better than our counterparts in Central Canada. This may seem a bit on the optimistic side, a projection for 3% growth, but despite the US downturn we have plenty of projects to keep our province for the next few years. Many are public, and less prone to economic cycles. Examples are ports expansions, Investments of “Olympic” proportions, Gateway projects, Translink upgrades to the SW
  • One of the big drivers of employment and growth in BC is still very weak. Access to credit markets, consumer uncertainty and issues surrounding the coming HST continues to hold back new home activity
  • With Affordability being a key driver this year and next, we should recognize that the spectrum of homes are wide. There is a lot of choice for buyers at different price ranges as the market has matured. Condos is almost every price range, and single-family homes In essence. Buyers in many income levels can access homeownership, in contrast to previous cycles. Mean price of SF 396K, median 368K Mean price of condo 293.3K; median 261K
  • Meanwhile, BC has had its share of Canada’s job losses shedding about 65,000 positions The unemployment rate has climbed to around 7.8 per cent from around 4 per cent Labour markets in the North and Okanagan, which are geared towards the hard hit forestry sectors, base materials and tourism, have been particularly affected. Here in Victoria, the labour market remains relatively robust all thing equal, despite a loss of 9,000 jobs in the last year. The unemployment rate has doubled, going from one of the lowest in the country to middle of the pack; but it is still lowest in BC. Many of the losses have come from the tourism and discretionary sectors. Given the current economy, these types of industries will remain under duress as consumers cut back on discretionary purposes. The strength of the public sector, despite wage freezes and cutbacks remains a pillar of stability for the region, and along with a larger retiree segment, will keep the underlying economy stable. The unemployment rate is not severe here and not a huge cause for concern.
  • This brings us back to the the explosion in sales since March despite the tepid macro economic underpinnnings Here in Victoria, sales are tracking an annualized rate of about 8500 – 9000 in recent months, we expect around 7700 Clearly the factors are affordability and pent-up demand have boosted this market-
  • Better Inventory Management Higher population, but lower units in inventory Low starts and falling U/C should keep inventory in check
  • Transcript of "BC Real Estate Association: GVHBA Trends 2010 presentation"

    1. 1. There and Back Again Cameron Muir Chief Economist Greater Vancouver Home Builders’ Association Coquitlam, BC December 8, 2009
    2. 2. Housing Market Rebound
    3. 3. Sales Rebound From Crisis Lows Economic Expansion; Declining Mortgage Rates; Pent-Up Demand Residential MLS® Unit Sales (SAAR) Record Low Mortgage Rates; Pent-up Demand; Lower Prices Financial Crisis; Global Recession; Low Confidence Affordability Concerns; End of 40-Year Amortizations; Declining Prices Sources: BC Real Estate Boards, CREA, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates
    4. 4. Units Units Source: BCREA Economics Residential Supply & Demand British Columbia
    5. 5. Sales-to-Active Listings (seasonally adjusted) Per Cent Balanced Regional Differences Significant Source: BCREA Economics
    6. 6. Large Urban Centres Rebound Buyers’ Balanced Sellers’ 3-month moving average Sales-to-Active Listings Sources: BC Real Estate Boards, BCREA
    7. 7. Units Sources: CREA, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Sales Outpace Expectations REBGV MLS® Unit Sales (SAAR) Does this look sustainable to you?
    8. 9. Housing Affordability – Spring 2009 Mortgage Payment* Mar-09 Mar-08 Change $ Change % Lowest Since Victoria $2,166 $2,873 -$707 -25% Feb. 2006 Vancouver Island $1,483 $1,839 -$356 -19% Jan. 2007 Powell River Sunshine Coast $1,221 $1,339 -$118 -9% Apr. 2007 Greater Vancouver $2,604 $3,512 -$908 -26% Mar. 2006 Fraser Valley $1,927 $2,527 -$600 -24% Feb. 2006 Chilliwack $1,426 $1,921 -$495 -26% Feb. 2006 Kamloops $1,308 $1,729 -$421 -24% Jan. 2007 Okanagan Mainline $1,692 $2,372 -$680 -29% Mar. 2006 South Okanagan $1,452 $2,037 -$585 -29% Apr. 2006 Kootenay $1,209 $1,582 -$373 -24% Jan. 2007 Northern Lights $1,063 $959 +$104 +11% - BC Northern $960 $1,169 -$209 -18% Sept. 2006 BC Total $2,081 $2,754 -$673 -24% Mar. 2006 *Based on the average MLS ® residential sales price, 20% down-payment, 25 year amortization and the average posted 5-year fixed mortgage rate for the month.
    9. 10. Sources:CREA, BCREA Prices Reaching for Record Highs <ul><li>Single-Detached Home Sales Driving Price Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Provincial Figure Reflects Rebound in Large Urban Areas </li></ul>BC MLS® Average Price
    10. 11. Inflation Adjusted Dollars Sources: Statistics Canada, CREA, BCREA Per Cent Mortgage Rate Average Payment Affordability Ceilings Tested 26%
    11. 12. Sources: VREB, BCREA Prices Rebound on Demand, Low Supply <ul><li>All Product Types Share in Price Recovery </li></ul><ul><li>Detached Market Rebounds Quickest </li></ul>Vancouver MLS® Price
    12. 13. Inflation Adjusted Dollars Sources: Statistics Canada, CREA, BCREA Per Cent Mortgage Rate Average Payment Affordability Ceilings Tested Van 26%
    13. 14. Sources: Bank of Canada, BCREA How Close Are We Affordability Ceiling? What Are the Risks? Price Risk Rate Risk Inflation Adjusted Dollars
    14. 15. Sources: Bank of Canada, BC Real Estate Association 5-Year 1-Year Mortgage Rates Rise Modestly in 2010 Fixed Rate Variable Rate
    15. 16. Global Economic Malaise
    16. 17. Per Cent Sources: International Monetary Fund WEO (July 2009), BCREA GDP Growth at Constant Dollars Global Recession Slow to End
    17. 18. Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Chained 2002 Dollars Canada GDP Dollars (Millions) Slow and Choppy Canadian Recovery June Trough?
    18. 19. Index Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Equities Rally, But Still Recouping Loss 45% 40%
    19. 20. SAAR Units (x 1,000) Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA US Starts BC Sawn Lumber Production (RHS) % change US Housing Bottoms Out, Slow Build
    20. 21. Sources: US Census Bureau, BCREA Estimates Ratio of Vacant-to-Occupied Housing 1985 – 2002 Trend 1975 – 2008 Trend US Housing Remains Oversupplied
    21. 22. Sources: FRED®, BCREA Annualized Auto Sales (Millions) Cash for Clunkers – Temporary Reprieve
    22. 23. Dollars (Millions) Inflation Adjusted Sources: FRED®, BCREA US Consumers Per Cent Retail Trade (LHS) Unemployment Rate (RHS)
    23. 24. $(millions) Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted Exports Continue to Struggle
    24. 25. Sources: english.freemap.ca, BC Stats, BC Real Estate Association -27% PRC: +22% Japan: -28% S. Korea: -12% 2009 YTD -28% -53% -51% -18% -51% Taiwan: -26% Exports Growth Negative, China Exception
    25. 26. Sources: english.freemap.ca, BC Stats, BC Real Estate Association 53.1% PRC: 6.1% Japan: 15.1% S. Korea: 5.9% 2008 0.7% 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% Taiwan: 1.8% But US Still BC’s Key Market Share of BC Exports
    26. 27. Export Revenue Per Capita Source: Urban Futures – based on 2001 data
    27. 28. Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA $US/CDN Loonie Rises, Greenback Weakens Commodity Price Index Exchange Rate
    28. 29. Index Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Confidence Improving, Buying Flat Per Cent Confidence Retail Sales Growth
    29. 30. Room Revenues (Dollars x1,000) Sources: BC Stats, BCREA Tourism Demand Wanes
    30. 31. Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Unemployment Rate Employment (x 1,000) <ul><li>Unemployment Rate Stabilizes </li></ul><ul><li>Full-Time Employment Down as Part-Time Gains – Hours Cut </li></ul><ul><li>Healthcare Sector Strong Y/Y Growth </li></ul><ul><li>Pressure on Public Administration </li></ul><ul><li>Losses in Tourism and Discretionary Sectors </li></ul>Labour Market Patterns Stabilizing BC Province
    31. 32. BC Employment Forecast 2007 - 2017 Source: COPS BC Unique Scenario
    32. 33. Units Sources: CREA, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Projected Sales Range Sales Outpace Expectations BC MLS® Unit Sales (SAAR) Affordability Induced Decline Financial Crisis
    33. 34. Units Sources: CREA, BCREA Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Vancouver Forecast Range REBGV MLS® Unit Sales (SAAR)
    34. 35. Units Sources: Statistics Canada, Urban Futures BC Homeownership Rates
    35. 36. Per Cent Sources: VIREB 2008 Buyer Profile, BCREA <ul><li>Parksville/Qualicum, Campbell River are Preferred Destinations for Albertans </li></ul><ul><li>Alberta Personal Income Weaker on Income Growth and Depressed Investment Income </li></ul><ul><li>Oil and Natural Gas Prices Impact Corporate Profits and Investment </li></ul>Alberta Buyers Key Source of Demand
    36. 37. Building Permits (Residential) Sources: CMHC, BCREA Urban Housing Starts 45+ Year Low? 20 Year Average
    37. 38. Individuals Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Risk of Multi-Decade Low Starts
    38. 39. Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Inventory Tops Below Previous Cycles Under Construction (RHS) Inventory (LHS)
    39. 40. Individuals Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Migration Still Strong Despite Recession Total (RHS)
    40. 41. Net Change Sources: BC Stats P.E.O.P.L.E Model Per Cent Growth 55+ = 36% of Population BC Population Distribution - 2028
    41. 42. MLS® Prices to Plateau Price Forecast Per Cent Change BC Average MLS ® Price Sources: CREA, BCREA
    42. 43. <ul><li>Current market strength fuelled by pent-up demand and low mortgage rates </li></ul><ul><li>Pull-back in sales activity from current high expected, but demand remains elevated </li></ul><ul><li>Prices to remain firm on attractive mortgage rates, population growth, and lack of new home construction </li></ul><ul><li>Underlying economy recovering, but slowly </li></ul>Final Thoughts:
    43. 45. Per Cent Sources: Canadian Bankers Association, Statistics Canada BCREA *Annualized, Population denotes those aged 15+ Mortgages in Arrears BC Bankruptcies Per Capita* Financial Balancing Act for Consumers
    44. 46. Sources: CFIB Business Barometer ® , BCREA Monthly Quarterly Business Outlook Improves -22%
    45. 47. Per Cent Sources: Bank of Canada, BCREA Core Inflation Target Inflation Band Total Consumer Inflation Low Inflation Dampens Rate Pressure <ul><li>Negative Inflation Signals Continuation of Low Rates </li></ul><ul><li>Continued Slack and Tepid Growth to Keep Inflation Pressures Low in Short Term </li></ul>
    46. 48. Per Cent Sources: BC Stats, BC Government September Update Budget and Fiscal Plan, , BCREA, NBER US Recessions BC Economy To Improve in 2010
    47. 49. Sources: Bank of Canada, BC Real Estate Association 5-Year 1-Year Mortgage Rates to Rise Modestly in 2010 Fixed Rate Variable Rate
    48. 50. Units Sources:CREA, BCREA Sales To Remain at Healthy Levels
    49. 51. Building Permits (Residential) Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Residential Building Low but Improving YTD July: -64% Singles : - 50% Multiples: -71%
    50. 52. Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Inventory Tops Below Previous Cycles Under Construction (RHS) Inventory (LHS)
    51. 53. Ratio (3m moving average) Sources: VIREB, BCREA Buyers’ Balanced Sellers’ All Markets Show Improvement Mar Sept
    52. 54. Sources: CHBA-BC, Altus Group, BCREA Ready or Not – Harmonized Sales Tax Home Price (x 1,000) Additional Tax CHBA-BC/Altus Group Report 2006 Censal Data 42.8 % of New Homes < $400K 18.1% of New Homes $400-$500K 23.9% of New Homes $500-$750K 15.2% of New Homes > $750K 57% of New Homes Above Threshold
    53. 55. BC a Population Growth Leader Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Per Cent
    54. 56. Building Permits (Residential) Sources: Statistics Canada, CREA, BCREA Residential Building Intentions Low YTD July BC: - 64% Victoria : - 67%
    55. 57. Sources: CMHC, BC Real Estate Association YTD August New Housing Starts -80% -71% -11% -65% -63%
    56. 58. Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Nanaimo New Home Supply Swells Under Construction(RHS) Inventory
    57. 59. Capital Region Price Distribution - 2008 Units Sources: BC Assessment Authority, BCREA 35% Below $275K
    58. 60. Sources: Statistics Canada, BCREA Unemployment Rate Employment (x 1,000) <ul><li>Unemployment Rate Remains Low </li></ul><ul><li>Full-Time Employment Down as Part-Time Gains – Hours Cut </li></ul><ul><li>Healthcare Sector Still Stable </li></ul><ul><li>Pressure on Public Administration </li></ul><ul><li>Losses in Tourism and Discretionary Sectors </li></ul>Labour Market Moderately Weakens Victoria CMA
    59. 61. Units Sources: VREB. CREA, BC Real Estate Association Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates Projected Sales Range Sales Outpace Expectations Victoria MLS® Unit Sales (SAAR) Affordability Induced Decline Financial Crisis
    60. 62. Units Sources: CMHC, BCREA Figures reflect activity in 9 large BC markets Victoria CMA New Home Inventory Under Construction (RHS) Inventory (LHS)
    1. A particular slide catching your eye?

      Clipping is a handy way to collect important slides you want to go back to later.

    ×