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Want a better estimate ?                     Alexandre Cuva  Coach Agile, CSM, CSPO, LTM3 HSPTP                   PMDay Bu...
Alexandre CuvaEmail :                    Organizational Coachingalexandre.cuva@altran.co   (Management 3.0, Scrum)m       ...
ObservationThe complexity is growing fast
ObservationThe current standard management system, does not providesatisfaction to all.
My Actual MissionHelp companies to make this sentence True for them“Organizations can become learning networks ofindividua...
How to have an Accurate Estimation ?
Common ScenarioHow long do youthink this project                      I think in 6will take ? we need                     ...
Problem of estimation                   From this picture                   Estimate the size of                   my subm...
3 points estimationThe 3 point estimate          1. Take the worstbelongs to the time              scenariomanagement know...
Things that influence EstimatesProject Size            Culture                        ToolsType of Software               ...
Are estimate important ?                               Scheduling      Defining      Iteration                  Estimation...
What is estimate?                  Estimate                                            Target   CommitmentSource : Want a ...
Estimation ChallengesProvides an 95% Confident estimation for: How old I am ? How many bugs will have on the next project ...
Important Laws of Nature       Parkinson’s Law            The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount...
5 law to Ponder from Joel Semeniuk        ESTIMATION LAWSource : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
Estimate Law #1                  Don’t estimate if you                  can measure
Estimate Law #2Estimate in a way human are good at !Compare instead estimate unit
Estimate Law #3         Measure things that are Measurable                   Eg Start-Finish Time                         ...
Estimate Law #4                   To mitigate the risk of        Vision     incorrect effort       Roadmap                ...
Cone of Uncertainty
Estimation Law #5      Use the different Metrics for different Estimates
GOOD PRACTICE TO START
Simple Practices that Work             Use Sizing for Requirements                   Measure Velocity          Decompose i...
Use Sizing for RequirementExample : Ski trail difficulty              Numeric Values              ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20...
Measure VelocityThe amount of product backlog that a team can handle in one singlesprintQuantified in story pointsStory po...
Size StoriesStory should fit in one IterationStory too complex should be split on multiple simple one
Fixed Cycle Time              Remember Law #1 : Measure instead guessing           Measure the time to resolve
SummaryEstimation Law  1.   Don’t estimate if you can measure  2.   Compare instead estimate unit  3.   Measure things tha...
Resources
Alexandre CuvaEmail :                    Organizational Coachingalexandre.cuva@altran.co   (Management 3.0, Scrum)m       ...
Want better estimation ?
Want better estimation ?
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Want better estimation ?

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Presentation made at the PMDays Bucharest 2012 from the PMI Romania Chapter

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Transcript of "Want better estimation ?"

  1. 1. Want a better estimate ? Alexandre Cuva Coach Agile, CSM, CSPO, LTM3 HSPTP PMDay Bucharest - 2012
  2. 2. Alexandre CuvaEmail : Organizational Coachingalexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum)m Team CoachingTwitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban)Blog: http://agile- Technical Coachingalexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy)Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training (Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)
  3. 3. ObservationThe complexity is growing fast
  4. 4. ObservationThe current standard management system, does not providesatisfaction to all.
  5. 5. My Actual MissionHelp companies to make this sentence True for them“Organizations can become learning networks ofindividuals creating value, and the role of leadersshould include the stewardship of the living ratherthan the management of the machine.”http://www.stoosnetwork.org
  6. 6. How to have an Accurate Estimation ?
  7. 7. Common ScenarioHow long do youthink this project I think in 6will take ? we need month weto finish in 3 will be donemonth. Didn’t hear me I say it should be done in 3 month !!!
  8. 8. Problem of estimation From this picture Estimate the size of my submarine ?
  9. 9. 3 points estimationThe 3 point estimate 1. Take the worstbelongs to the time scenariomanagement knowledge 2. Take the best scenarioarea. It can also be used 3. Take the medianduring Cost Estimation.A three point estimate is abetter estimate, compared E = (O+M+L)/3to a single point estimate.Single point estimatesimply gives you a singlenumber scenario
  10. 10. Things that influence EstimatesProject Size Culture ToolsType of Software Team CohesionPersonnel Factors ManagementProgramming Languages …ComplexityConstraintsTurnoverExperience
  11. 11. Are estimate important ? Scheduling Defining Iteration Estimation Prioritization Break Work
  12. 12. What is estimate? Estimate Target CommitmentSource : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
  13. 13. Estimation ChallengesProvides an 95% Confident estimation for: How old I am ? How many bugs will have on the next project ? What is the distance between the earth and the moon ? What is the % surface of water on Earth ?Question: What make you are confident at95%
  14. 14. Important Laws of Nature Parkinson’s Law The amount of time which one has to perform a task is the amount of time it will take to complete the task. The Student Syndrome Start as late as possible Exponential Error Aggregation The more detailed – the further from truth you will beSource : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
  15. 15. 5 law to Ponder from Joel Semeniuk ESTIMATION LAWSource : Want a better estimates ? Stop Estimating by Joel Semeniuk
  16. 16. Estimate Law #1 Don’t estimate if you can measure
  17. 17. Estimate Law #2Estimate in a way human are good at !Compare instead estimate unit
  18. 18. Estimate Law #3 Measure things that are Measurable Eg Start-Finish Time versus Actual versus Planned Effort
  19. 19. Estimate Law #4 To mitigate the risk of Vision incorrect effort Roadmap estimations we reduce the precision of our Release estimates according Iteration to how much we know about what we’re estimating. Day This in turn helps us to be more accurate.
  20. 20. Cone of Uncertainty
  21. 21. Estimation Law #5 Use the different Metrics for different Estimates
  22. 22. GOOD PRACTICE TO START
  23. 23. Simple Practices that Work Use Sizing for Requirements Measure Velocity Decompose into Task Just in Time in Hours Calibrate and Recalibrate Use cycle Time to Predict Expected Duration
  24. 24. Use Sizing for RequirementExample : Ski trail difficulty Numeric Values ½, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20, 40, 50, 100 Green Trail : ½, 1, 2, 3 (16) Blue Trail : 5, 8 (8) Red Trail : 13, 20 (8) Black Trail : 50, 100 (8)
  25. 25. Measure VelocityThe amount of product backlog that a team can handle in one singlesprintQuantified in story pointsStory point is an arbitrary measure to quantify the required effort tofinish an user story. Namely, how hard the story is. Loosely based onFibonacci series. Business Solutions
  26. 26. Size StoriesStory should fit in one IterationStory too complex should be split on multiple simple one
  27. 27. Fixed Cycle Time Remember Law #1 : Measure instead guessing Measure the time to resolve
  28. 28. SummaryEstimation Law 1. Don’t estimate if you can measure 2. Compare instead estimate unit 3. Measure things that are Measurable 4. Reduce the precision of our estimates according to how much we know 5. Use the different Metrics for different EstimatesGood Practices • Sizing for requirement • Hours for small task • Velocity • Size Story • Fixed cycle time
  29. 29. Resources
  30. 30. Alexandre CuvaEmail : Organizational Coachingalexandre.cuva@altran.co (Management 3.0, Scrum)m Team CoachingTwitter: @cuvaalex (Scrum, XP, Kanban)Blog: http://agile- Technical Coachingalexcuva.blogspot.com/ (TDD, BDD, C#, Java, Groovy)Phone: +41 78 715 8309 Agile Training (Management 3.0, Agile, Scrum, XP)
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