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IBR 2014 Global optimism infographic

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  • 1. Grant Thornton IBR Q4-2013 results How optimistic are you for your economy over the next 12 months? 80 United States Business optimism in the US 60 fell back to 36% in Q4; a new 40 government budget and debt ceiling extension need to be 20 agreed in early 2014 following the recent shutdown. 0 80 eurozone Confidence remains at just 60 8% in the currency bloc with 40 German (51%) and French (the lowest globally at -38%) 20 business leaders at opposite ends of the scale. 0 80 United Kingdom UK business optimism 60 remains elevated at 71% – 40 the seventh highest globally; unemployment and inflation 20 are falling, with house prices and growth on the up. 0 80 Russia As growth forecasts are 60 slashed, Russian business 40 optimism fell for the fourth straight quarter and now 20 stands at its lowest since 2009. 0 80 China Optimism in China slipped 60 again to 22% although the 40 third plenum promised a number of positive measures 20 including SOE, judicial and fiscal reform. 0 80 Japan Business optimism in Japan 60 climbed back into positive 40 territory for only the second time since 2003 with the 20 business community continuing to 0 back Abenomics. 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 20 -80 0 2012- 2013- 20 -80 0 2012- 20 -80 2013- 0 2012- 20 -80 2013- 0 2012- 2013- 20 -80 2012- 0 20 -80 2013- 0 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -40 -40 -40 -40 -40 -60 80 -60 80 -60 80 -60 80 -60 80 -60 80 -80 60 2012- -80 60 2012- -80 60 2012- -80 60 2012- -80 60 2012- 2013- -20 -40 2012- 2013- 2013- 2013- -80 60 2012- 2013- 40 20 Key: A score above zero indicates net optimism 0 40 40 20 20 2013- 40 20 40 40 20 2013- 20 0 0 0 0 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 80 -20 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 60 -40 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 40 -60 20 -80 20 -80 20 -80 0 0 2012- 2013- 0 2012- 2013- 0 36 2012- 2013- -20 -40 Global -40 -60 -60 -80 40 2012- -80 2013- 2012- 2013- 20 -80 0 -20 -40 -60 80 2013- 0 -20 -20 -80 60 2012- 71 20 -80 1 8 2012- 2013- -20 -40 -40 -60 20 -80 2013- 0 -60 -80 2012- 30 2013- -80 27 20 2012- 22 2012- -20 -40 -60 2012- -80 2013- 2013- 6 2012- 2013- 45 69 80 800 80 80 80 80 80 60 -20 60 2660 60 60 60 60 40 -40 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 -60 20 20 20 20 0 -80 0 0 0 0 0 0 -20 2012- 2013- 40 42 20 20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -40 -40 -40 -40 -40 -40 Latin America -40 -60 Confidence in Latin America -60 fell again to 26%, with Brazil -80 2012dropping to a new 2013- low record -80 of just 10%; Argentina and 20122013Mexico optimism also dropped but Peru and Chile ticked up. South Africa -60 Business optimism rose back to 40% from a record low in -80 20122013Q3; it remains to be seen what effect the passing of Nelson Mandela will have on the economy. Turkey -60 Turkish business optimism climbed back up to 30% -80 20122013in Q4 as social unrest India -60 Indian business optimism arrested its recent slide -80 20122013as hopes increased that new central bank governor, Raghuram Rajan, can boost growth while taming inflation. Australia -60 Optimism in Australia climbed for -80 the third straight quarter 20122013reaching its highest since 2010 as businesses react positively to the election of Tony Abbott. ASEAN -60 Optimism in Southeast Asia -80 ticked up for the third 20122013straight quarter, boosted 80 80 80 80 80 80 60 60 60 60 60 60 40 40 40 40 40 40 20 20 20 20 20 20 subsided although the US Federal Reserve tapering announcement last month could hurt the lira. by Indonesia (78%) although Thai businesses (-20%) remain unsettled by ongoing political unrest. 0 0 0 0 0 0 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -20 -40 -40 -40 -40 -40 -40 -60 -60 -60 -60 -60 -60 -80 2012- 2013- -80 2012- 2013- -80 2012- 2013- -80 2012- 2013- -80 2012- 2013- -80 2012- To examine IBR results going back to 1992, use our data visualisation tool: https://dataviztool.internationalbusinessreport.com/ibr.html Sample: 3,300 mid-market business leaders interviewed in 45 economies Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2014 80 60 2013-

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