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Global Q1 business optimism (IBR 2014)

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  • 1. Grant Thornton IBR Q1-2014 results How optimistic are you for your economy over the next 12 months? To examine IBR results going back to 1992, use our data visualisation tool: https://dataviztool.internationalbusinessreport.com/ibr.html Sample: 3,300 mid-market business leaders interviewed in 45 economies Source: Grant Thornton IBR 2014 United States Business optimism is the US climbed to 66% in Q1, its highest since 2004, driven by strong consumer spending supported by steady job creation. eurozone Confidence hit its highest level since mid-2011, boosted by a return to optimism in Spain (15%), continued strength in Germany (65%) and a record high in Ireland (94%). United Kingdom UK business optimism hit a fresh high of 83% in Q1 as positive news on economic growth, employment, house prices and inflation continues. Russia Russian business optimism remains weak and could be set to slip further as capital flows out of the economy following the Ukraine crisis. China Optimism in China climbed back to 38% in Q1, although it remains markedly below pre-crisis levels as fears about levels of local government indebtedness persist. Japan In a further boost to Abenomics, Japan recorded consecutive quarters of economic optimism for the first time in IBR history, climbing to a record net 17% in Q1. -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- 60 80 Latin America Confidence in Latin America rose to 43% with Brazil (36%) and Mexico (78%) bouncing back from falls the previous quarter; Argentina (-34%) remains in the doldrums. South Africa Optimism hit a fresh low of just 16% in Q1; no change of economic direction is envisaged following the elections in May which are expected to see the ANC remain in power. Turkey Confidence turned negative for the first time since 2009 as political uncertainty and pressure on the lira dampens the business mood. India Indian business optimism climbed to its highest since the end of 2010 as the country gears up for an election which is expected to return a more business-friendly administration. Australia Business optimism slipped slightly to net 36% but remains above the long-term average, with recent trade and labour market indicators positive. ASEAN Optimism ticked up for the fourth straight quarter to 50%; unrest in Thailand (-10%) is mitigated by strength in Philippines (88%), Indonesia (78%) and Vietnam (76%). Global -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- 83 25 6 38 50 36 -2 89 43 16 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 2014-2013-2012- Key: A score above zero indicates net optimism 66 17 44