Presentation to Istanbul Carbon Finance conference covering SinCo perspective on investing in a low-carbon economy and the role of the ISE Sustainability Index project ISESI in Turkey.
2. Carbon Finance: Investment Risks and Opportunities*
• Investment Risks and Opportunities
• The traditional and emerging risks involved in carbon mitigation project
• Overcoming credibility challenges
• What types of offsets attract the most investment?
• What are the risks of investing in pre- 2012 VERs? How can these be
addressed?
2
3. Carbon Finance: Investment Risks and Opportunities
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
• “Climate change investment covers several key areas - clean energy, energy efficiency, agriculture
and water, and is a secular beneficiary of global growth trends, particularly in developing markets.
• Overall, clean energy, energy efficiency, water and agribusiness managed to outperform the
world equity markets from the bottom of the market through the end of 2009. They also exhibit
out-performance on a three year basis.
• Market drivers for climate change investments remain robust driven by mandates and innovation
policy. Our 2010 Outlook is bullish for public markets, private equity / venture capital and
infrastructure investments.”
RISKS
But direct and indirect investors must KNOW the risks
– Legal
– Project/regulatory
– Political/country
– Financial markets/carbon pricing
FOR TURKEY
• Emerging markets best space for emerging capital especially if with appropriate underwriting.
• What role for Turkey?
Sources: Investing in Climate Change: Strategic Asset Allocation Perspective, Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors, Jan 2010
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5. ISE Sustainability Index Project 2010 - 2011 Launch Briefing
Istanbul Turkey, 10 August 2010
isesi.org
6. About ISE Sustainability Index
APPROACH KEY MILESTONES
• Opportunities to attract capital • Project launch announced @ ISE on 10
• Identifying winners in sustainability meta- August 2010 by Presidents of ISE + TBCSD
theme; competitive context drives changes • Briefing to companies, investors and
• Indices will be used by investment managers stakeholders in Turkey on project; input on
to integrate Environmental, Social and core ESG issues for Turkey, Oct 2010
Governance criteria into their investment
– Further briefings and workshops to develop
processes for benchmarking, asset allocation.
relevant criteria that map to international
standards developed for Turkey.
TEAM – Regular updates and reporting online
• ISE seeking local and international partners: • Criteria finalized and first annual rating
– TBCSD/WBCSD - company initiative process begins; companies assessed on ESG
promoting sustainability, Cheryl Hicks
factors; rating agency and company
– SinCo - sustainable investment architect
– SAM - ESG ratings and indexes
reporting.
• Index model tested with company ESG
ARCHITECTURE profiles based on data/criteria/ranking
• Universe of ISE-listed companies ranked on
financial fundamentals and ESG factors e.g. LAUNCH
energy efficiency, jobs creation, separation
• Index modeled and launched by ISE +
of executive/board positions
TBCSD around Dec 2011.
• Index committee of Turkey /investment/
sustainability experts. Third-party rating
method with verification, review of ratings
6
7. What do investors want? 1/3: global marketplace
• Global SIFs identified USD
6.7 trillion [2009] is
invested in sustainable
investment. But where is
data for Turkey?
• How may we define what
the challenges are for
investment integrating ESG
factors in Turkey today?
• “Institutional portfolios with
Socially Responsible
Investment (SRI) and
environmental, social and
governance (ESG)
mandates have been
obvious early adopters and
climate change is likely to
remain an important
theme.”
Sources: Investing in Climate Change: Strategic Asset Allocation Perspective, Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors, Jan 2010, AfricaSIF analysis, 2009.
What is the state of responsible investment1 in South Africa in 2007? UNISA/UNEP Fi/NOAH Financial, Oct 2007. 7
8. What do investors want? 1/3
• Institutional GEM:
– CalPERS USD 250 bn pension fund USA emerging markets guidelines include 1.
Promotion of sustainability. Appropriate disclosure on ESG; 2. Dedicated Clean Tech and
Green Real Estate funds seeking deals
• New themes:
– US-based fund launched 15 Sept 2010 specializing in markets for ecosystem services such
as carbon, water and biodiversity; “Capturing Carbon Opportunities.”
– Appetite for green bond fund focused on “investing in ‘green’ projects and initiatives that
support a conversion to a low carbon economy in emerging markets.”
• New asset classes:
– Private equity: At least 10 private equity funds looking to raise up to USD 3.6 billion, with
the four cleantech dedicated funds making up USD 1.4 billion of the sum. Actis USD 10
bn Private Equity goal: to promote sustainable growth in emerging markets to ensure “a
lasting tangible and positive difference” in target countries. ESG Guidelines, policies and
methods for monitoring the ESG approach in companies within portfolio and under
consideration [environmental, climate change]
– Green DFI bonds: Allocated capital to existing global development bank green bond
programs. World Bank/IFC both issued green bonds, new issuers are expected to come to
market in 2010. Both are AAA rated entities with zero risk weighted capital treatment.
Investor takes on World Bank or IFC credit and does not face direct/indirect project
exposure. All project screening is by qualified teams of environment specialists within bank.
Investments can replace existing exposure to government bond allocations to created a
“greener” Aggregate Bond Fund
8
9. What do investors want? 2/3: mainstreaming through pension funds
• 2009 influence survey: Asset Owners: do you expect to implement ESG
policies in your emerging market investments within the next 3 years?
Yes 81.5%
No 18.5%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
…however 80% also state that they are currently not able to find fund
managers with the required capacity
Source: IFC/Economist Intelligence Unit, 2009 international investor opinion survey, 2009
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11. What do investors want? 3/3: indexes offering carbon exposure; driving projects?
• Environmental indices represent the MSCI Global Climate Index
performance of focused investment • The MSCI Global Climate Index is an equal
opportunity sets that reflect specific weighted index consisting of 100 developed
environmental themes, such as renewable market large, mid and small cap companies
energy or clean technology that are leaders in mitigating the causes or
impact of climate change
• MSCI Global Environment Indices include
developed and emerging market large, mid • Constituent companies are classified as
and small cap companies that have pure- leaders in one of three themes: Renewable
play involvement in five environmental Energy, Future Fuels, or Clean Technology
themes [A company that derives 50% or and Efficiency
more of its revenue from products and
services from one of the five environmental • Criteria for being a leader include market
industries]. share, strategic commitment, investment in
research and development, intellectual
property and reputation. Constituents are
• The MSCI Index is the aggregation of the added and removed at Quarterly Index
five thematic sub-indices Reviews
– MSCI Global Alternative Energy Index
– MSCI Global Clean Technology Index
– MSCI Global Sustainable Water Index
– MSCI Global Green Building Index
– MSCI Global Pollution Prevention Index
11
12. Carbon markets
Compliance markets
• Cap and trade/“Price on
carbon”
• $144 BILLION or 8,625
MtCO2e in 2009
• Geographic coverage (mostly
EU; US regional)
• 15% Offsets by volume (tons)
Voluntary markets
• Differential value/ton based on
quality and co-benefits of
reductions (“charismatic” or
“boutique” carbon)
• $388m or 94 MtCo2e in 2009
• Global in supply; demand
driven by U.S. and EU
Sources: Adapted from EKO Asset Management, Sep 2010, correspondence with author 12
13. Risks & opportunities 1/3
SIZE SELECTION
• Carbon projects have not existed on the scale • Focus on eligible credits; highest value
necessary to attract large institutional investors. • Lack of standardization amongst project
Developing conservatively sized investment vehicle types – scope of “Green Projects” is
takes into account current regulatory uncertainty very wide.
• Does “aggregator” either ring-fence existing – Renewable energy systems
projects or create captive pools of capital. – Energy efficient retro-fit initiatives
– Avoided deforestation, reforestation,
Afforestation
PROCESS – Methane capture technology
• Without rigorous investment process marketing – Global greenhouse gas abatement
hype and emotion cloud investments
TRENDS
DIVERSIFICATION
• Key trends in environmental markets:
• Hedge risk through portfolio diversified by:
– Trading in compliance AND pre-
– Registry and standard (e.g., CAR, VCS and ACR)
compliance Carbon market
– Project type (e.g., avoided conversion, reforestation
and ag)
already taking place
– Investment type e.g., options, forwards, project – Strong regulatory interest in
equity “Green Carbon” in OECD
– Geography (by state/province, region and country) countries [from why to how?]
OPTION – Long-term: pricing of ecosystems
• Protect downside exposure to slow-moving and their services will create more
compliance markets by ensuring credits also have mega-markets
appeal to high-value (“boutique”) voluntary buyers
Sources: Adapted from EKO Asset Management, Sep 2010, Bill Page CFA in GEOS Strategy Sep 2010 courtesy of Bill Page, Sep 2010, correspondence 13
14. Risks & opportunities 2/3
Legal risks
RISK MITIGATION & MANAGMENT
Third party claims ownership to credits - Performing due diligence. Warranties in ERPA
Litigation affecting project - Due diligence. Warranties
Counterparty fails to make payments -Due diligence regarding counterparty’s credit
-Third party guarantees obligations (Guarantor)
Environmental liabilities - Due diligence. Warranties. Indemnities
Failure to obtain/ comply with local - Due diligence. Warranties. Indemnities
authorizations/ permits
Project/regulatory risks
Failure to obtain letter of Approval - Letter of Approval as precondition in contract. Guarantee
from Host Country. Option to sell credits as “VERs” (Seller)
Project fails validation or registration - Validation as a precondition. Payment only upon delivery
(Buyer). Option to sell credits as “VERs” (Seller)
Methodology fails to be approved - Methodology approval as a precondition
Project under-performance - ERPA obligation to source replacement credits. Duty to pay
liquidated damages
Registry delays / malfunctions - Flexible delivery provisions. Force Majeure. Alternative
accounts for delivery
Source: Managing carbon project risks Presented by Adam Shepherd, Regional Workshop on Legal, Institutional and Financial aspects of Carbon Finance, Istanbul, Turkey, 21-22 January 2008
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15. Risks & opportunities 3/3
Host Country/Political risks Financial Risk: carbon markets risk
• Participants in carbon projects will • Managing Market Risk:
consider political risks in the host
– Pricing
country prior to making investment
decisions • Fixed price
• Sample Host Country risks… • Floating price with floor/ceiling
– Delays in obtaining Letters of Approval – Secondary sales (forward)
– Uncertainty regarding criteria for
• Passing on the market risk
Letters of Approval
– Uncertainty regarding taxes • What about delivery issues?
– Nationalization of project assets or
carbon credits
– Coup d'état or civil strife
– Strikes: labor, transport
“IEA urges Turkey to take on emissions target: Turkey’s fight against climate change should include a carbon
market and an emissions target.”
- Point Carbon 23 Jul 2010
“Turkey eyes domestic carbon trade: Turkey could launch a domestic carbon scheme in a few years’ time, a
government official said today.”
- Point Carbon 28 Sep 2010
Source: Managing carbon project risks Presented by Adam Shepherd, Regional Workshop on Legal, Institutional and Financial aspects of Carbon Finance, Istanbul, Turkey, 21-22 January 2008
15
16. Investment case for environment: driving carbon finance 1/2
• Realities
– Most countries very slow to establish carbon capital & finance.
– Carbon finance still too peripheral.
– Developing countries only beginning to understand how to position and communicate
investment opportunities…
– Emerging markets best space for emerging capital; especially if with appropriate
underwriting. Combining/coherence of ODA. Carbon capital finance based on FTT etc.
• Multiple, long-term global catalysts.
– Rise of sustainability as economic development meets “Tragedy of the Commons”
– Environmental regulatory direction intact
– Clean tech is now a competitive advantage
• Broad opportunities not recognized by the markets.
– Beyond the solar horizon
– New solutions, old benchmarks
– Most significant environmental externality is pricing
Sources: Investing in Climate Change: Strategic Asset Allocation Perspective, Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors, Jan 2010;
WWF Sep 2010; Bill Page CFA in GEOS Strategy Sep 2010 courtesy of Bill Page, Sep 2010
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17. Investment case for environment: driving carbon finance 2/2
•“We will vigorously develop renewable energy and nuclear energy. We will endeavor to increase
the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 15% by 2020.”
- Chinese President Hu Jintao, address at UN Climate Change Summit, September 22, 2009.
•At least USD 10 trillion dollars of infrastructure investment overall, to be deployed globally into a
variety of projects over the next 5-10 years, with a significant component going to water (50%),
power (22%) and critical infrastructure for agriculture such as roads and rails (19%).”
- Source: Investing in Climate Change: Strategic Asset Allocation Perspective, Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors, Jan 2010
Photo courtesy of The Guardian. View from the Shanghai World Financia 17
18. Carbon Finance: Investment Risks and Opportunities
INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES
• “Climate change investment covers several key areas - clean energy, energy efficiency, agriculture
and water, and is a secular beneficiary of global growth trends, particularly in developing markets.
• Overall, clean energy, energy efficiency, water and agribusiness managed to outperform the
world equity markets from the bottom of the market through the end of 2009. They also exhibit
out-performance on a three year basis.
• Market drivers for climate change investments remain robust driven by mandates and innovation
policy. Our 2010 Outlook is bullish for public markets, private equity / venture capital and
infrastructure investments.”
RISKS
But direct and indirect investors must KNOW the risks
– Legal
– Project/regulatory
– Political/country
– Financial markets/carbon pricing
FOR TURKEY
• Emerging markets best space for emerging capital especially if with appropriate underwriting.
• What role for Turkey?
Sources: Investing in Climate Change: Strategic Asset Allocation Perspective, Deutsche Bank Climate Change Advisors, Jan 2010
18
19. Thank you
Sustainable Investment Architects
Graham Sinclair
graham.sinclair@sinclairconsult.com
sinclairconsult.com
19
20. EU Emission Trading Scheme cap&trade improves economics of low carbon technologies
20
26. Who We Are: Sustainable Investment Architect
• SinCo at a Glance • Experienced
– SinCo is a boutique investment advisory firm – Established boutique in Boston in Q4 2006.
specializing as an ESG investment architect Inaugural engagement for Wall St
for sustainable investment in frontier and proprietary and third party manager with
emerging markets. USD 900bn AUM, 200 analysts, mutli-asset
– Bespoke investment advisory focused on classes
sustainable investment architecture – Sabbatical to establish PRI in Emerging
– Architect + 2 analysts with support team Markets Project for UN Environment
operating projects with partners in Geneva, Programme Finance Initiative 2007/8.
Seattle, London, Nairobi, Washington DC, Ramped membership in EM 57%
Cape Town, Istanbul – Since 2006, SinCo has delivered sustainable
– Word-of-mouth, below-the-radar approach investment architecture globally to pension
funds, asset managers and international
organizations integrating environment, social
• Philosophy and governance (ESG) factors into
– SinCo offers the domain knowledge and investment practice.
global experience to help investors
understand the threats and opportunities of
the sustainability meta-trend.
• Proven Project Leader
– SinCo helps clarify questions, design & – Multi-year, multi-stakeholder, multi-country
develop answers, and project manages project management experience.
thinking into action. – Developed framework for 25 country
rollout by PRI in EM project.
Investment architect that believes sustainability + investment are integrated
26
27. Who We Are: SinCo helps leading clients tackle challenges
• Developed strategy for assessing innovative financing mechanisms to attract new capital in new
ways 2008-. Designed global ESG index architecture for developed, emerging and frontier markets
covering nutrition sector 2009-2011.
• Prepared strategy and lead the Africa Sustainable Investment Forum (AfricaSIF) project team
developing pan-African network for investment stakeholders 2009-.
• Supported stakeholder engagement connecting investors, analysts and companies assessing practice
of investment valuation globally in 2008.
• Designed sustainable investment ESG architecture across trillion-dollar AUM, 200 analyst private
equity, equity, fixed income and global real estate asset classes. Provided peer benchmarking for
ESG strategy and developed change management program for global ESG roll-out 2006-2009.
• Developed strategy for 25 emerging markets in 2007 and launched EM project for sustainable
investment by institutional investors. Created network infrastructure, stakeholder relationships and
built PRI in EM through 2008.
• Conducting seminal study of sustainable investment in sub-Saharan Africa [S.Africa, Nigeria, Kenya]
across PE and listed equities in 2010 in partnership with RisCura; conducting primary research
interviewing over 130 investors. In PE and listed asset classes inside/outside Africa 2009-2010
• Developed investment map and index architecture for Istanbul Stock Exchange/ Turkish Business
Council for Sustainable Development covering 100+ ISE-listed stocks on ESG profiles 2010-2011.
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28. Credentials: testimonials for SinCo…
• “Graham is an exceptional professional in all that he does. His work is at the crossroads of business intelligence,
finance and investments and sustainability. His ability to clarify objectives and execute on solutions has demonstrated
the fruitful success of the business case for sustainability.”
– Director and Senior Investment Analyst, global institutional asset manager, New York City.
• Graham served as a strategic adviser to a large US Asset manager as we worked together on developing their
sustainable investment strategy. He provided on-going support to their internal team and served as a knowledgeable
and helpful sounding board as their staff tried to move sustainability forward
– - Senior Client Relationship Manager, Global ESG ratings and research provider, London
• Graham is a very focused, passionate and results driven promoter and believer in the change role that a shift to of
Responsible Investments can and will effect in our globalising world. He is comfortable with holding a strong opinion
yet cable of being a consensus builder
– - Portfolio Manager, Responsible Investment equity portfolio, Cape Town.
• "For many investors, getting to grips with ESG issues in emerging markets is a top priority. [He] was crucial in
encouraging new partnerships in diverse markets..."
– Clean tech private equity fund manager and former Executive Director, ASRIA, Hong Kong.
• Graham has shown a fantastic drive and commitment to the PRI initiative. He clearly helped promote the ESG
thematic to the top of our priorities.
– - Chief Risk Officer, hedge fund-of-funds investment house, Zurich.
• “Graham is a hard-working, dedicated investment professional. He approaches his work with a creative pragmatism
and is committed to promoting the importance of ESG thoughout the value chain.
– - Project team member, Principles for Responsible Investment, Geneva.
• "Graham is one of our leading thinkers on SRI. The work that Graham is doing will transform SRI and take it to the
next level."
– Managing Director, equity investment manager, Boston.
• "Graham Sinclair's work is excellent."
– Executive Diretor, billion-dollar global foundation, Philadelphia.
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29. Who We Are: About Graham Sinclair
• Graham Sinclair is a sustainable investment strategist, ESG architect and global project leader at
Sinclair & Company [SinCo]. Graham has eight years specialist experience in sustainable investment
globally after eight years in pensions consulting and investment banking in Africa. Recent consulting
engagements in sustainable investment include:
– Leading IFC-funded research into private equity and liquid equity ESG strategies in sub-Saharan Africa in South
Africa, Kenya and Nigeria to be published in Q2 2010.
– Developing innovative financing mechanisms strategy and ESG index architecture for developed, emerging and
frontier markets for a Swiss-based international organization.
– For a global institutional investment firm in New York with a USD 1 trillion AUM portfolio, designing ESG
architecture across private equity, liquid and global real estate portfolios covering philosophy and process
innovations and investment strategies.
– As consultant to the UN, developed strategy for 25 emerging markets and launched PRI in Emerging Markets
project in Q3 2007 for UNEP FI, creating a network infrastructure, building relationships with 108 investor
stakeholders including in Africa through 2008.
– Lecturing on ESG in investment strategies at investment practitioner symposia and leading business schools in
Europe, Africa and the US. Currently developing case studies on ESG investment in emerging markets for his
forthcoming book.
• Before starting his eponymous investment advisory boutique SinCo in 2006, he was Product Manager
at KLD Research & Analytics, Inc, based in Boston. He is a former contributor to the CSR Initiative at
Harvard Kennedy School, Distinguished Member of Net Impact, alum of WWF One Planet Leaders
programme and the Tallberg Forum New Leaders Program. He holds diplomas in retirement funds
and insurance law, and in 1998 he was one of the youngest ever dual-FILPAs. He currently leads the
AfricaSIF Project building a not-for-profit Africa Sustainable Investment Forum network.
• Graham earned his MBA on scholarship at Villanova University USA where he co-managed the
Arnone-Lerer SRI Fund equity portfolio in 2004. He holds a B.Com from the University of Natal and
LL.B from its Howard College School of Law as well as numerous industry specialist certifications.
29
30. About Project team
Name Location Biography
Formerly he was Product Manager at KLD Research & Analytics, Inc, based in Boston. In 2006 he started his eponymous
investment advisory boutique SinCo, where he is a sustainable investment strategist, ESG architect, and global project leader. He
Graham Sinclair Cape Town currently leads the AfricaSIF Project building an independent, not-for-profit Africa Sustainable Investment Forum network.
Mr. Sinclair received his M.B.A. From Villanova where he co-managed the Arnone Lerer SRI Fund equity portfolio in 2004. He
holds a B. Com from the University of Natal and LL.B from Howard College School of Law. He holds diplomas in retirement
funds and insurance law, and in 1998 he was one of the youngest ever dual-FILPAs.
Pierre Taljaard Cape Town Mr Taljaard has been an analyst at SinCo since April where he conducts research and analysis for sustainable investment
strategy, processes and indexes. He has since spent a year working as a fund administrator at Close Fund Services, a subsidiary
of Close Brothers. He has also been pursuing his CFA Charter and in June 2010 passed the Level III exam. He received his
Bachelor of Business Science [Finance Honours] from the University of Cape Town in 2007.
Roselyne Yao Dakar Ms Yao is a analyst at SinCo on special projects. Formerly, she was a Research Analyst for JPS Global Investments [a California-
based money management company focusing on sustainable investing] and an Intern in the Social Research and Advocacy
Team at Walden Asset Management [a Boston-based socially responsible investing company]. She is currently an AfricaSIF
Steering Committee member. Ms Yao received her M.B.A. [Finance and Marketing] from the University of Illinois in 2009. She
passed the CFA level I exam in June 2009 and plans on sitting for the CFA level II exam in June 2011.
30