I think it is a low estimate with assumptions regarding the exact numbers of disaster related people. Also, drone need to be modify to keep close to the humanitarian action. No assessment has been done for the cost of resources like the human resources, fix and variable costs. $4 bn is just a fix envelop for the items.
Amendment to previous slide GOALS: HELP TO GENERATE MORE SOLUTIONS WITHIN THE SAME BREAKDOWN OF ASSETS. A RE-INGINEERING SOLUTION COMBINES 2 MAIN BRANCHES: LEFT BRANCH : ORGANIZATION PRODUCTS/SERVICES RIGHT BRANCH : MBA PRODUCTS/SERVICES I HAVE SUGGESTED THE COMBINED ORGANIZATION RESULTING OF FUSION OF 2 SINGLE ENTITIES (COMBINED, GROUPING OR INTEGRATION) SO, AFTER THE AMENDMENT IS MADE INSTEAD OF MBA PRODUCT REPLACED BY ORGANIZATION PRODUCTS. GS RADJOU (MY OWN PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN DEALING WITH VARIOUS STYLES OF PROJECT MANGEMENT WORLWIDE; MY OWN MIX BETWEEN PMBOK, PRINCE 2, ITDG.... (05/04/2010)
( Kenneth Laudon, Management Information System (MIS), Managing the Digital firm, Chapter 1, p.15) Useful for deployment Useful for starters Useful for binary systems Useful for societies
b)Water H 2 O 2 Water properties linked with the free electronic doublet O-- H+ H+ d+ d+ 2d- 2d- O-- H+ H+ 2d-
As a rule, project management goals are to induce changes in organizations, and because changes deal with ressources, processes and ouputs. It would be nicer to understand these forces that are shaping the present environment in order to take a rational decision (manage with full rational controls). For instance, if these ressources are water in all their contexts, an expertise in water would help. Similarly, if it is a business activity, some knowledge of Market theories (Michael Porter,...) would help to master the dynamic of changes in a rational way. Embedding my project organization GS RADJOU Addition: 05/04/2010
Basic box process Process inputs Ouputs Feed-back Very cybernetics way to organise matters and energies in all kind of organization. All, businesses are organized in that way in order to sustain production activities, product and services orientations whether results porientate or not. With a driver toppling the whole basic box (either the: chief, boss,...or committe). It at the base of the creative engineering and the knowledge of the interactive forces betwwen all these elements GS RADJOU Addition: 05/04/2010
c)Samples of Time Bombs for the Sustainability Development 98% 2% Hazards Water scarcity No sanitation No Safe water 3 1 3 3 billion individuals Water Borne diseases 80% diseases Asia 4/5 Water related disasters 20 second Child + Contaminated water Drougth Flood Water issues Energy crisis Food crisis Population growth Environment Development Financial crisis Climate change US/EU rest of the world Few facts and data H20 Solid Liquid Gas Bio diversity CO2 reduction US$ Oil crisis War for Water ? Washington Consensus Water traded good Asian Delta Africa Coasts Islands Artic Global Warming
e)Pareto Analysis (I) Flood Earthquake Volcanic eruption Tsunami Landslide Hurricane Snow melt Surge Rain … .. Interesting points with WAER project: the waste water treatment during a disaster Most disasters include a flood
d) Water need contexts in flood prone regions Urban and rural zones/ Disaster Natural WAR Technology Industrial Others 20 litres 2 litres. ? Disaster Technology Geography Human geography Physical geography Risk= asset x probability x vulnerability
f)Pareto analysis (II) Water Malaria Thyphoid Poisoning Cholera … . Interesting points with WAER project: the vector disease reduction Water the source of most of our diseases
g)Water needs in towns and fields in disaster zones WATER AERO EMERGENCY RELIEF OR PROJECT WAER IS A WATER SUPPLY FOR PEOPLE AT RISK OF FLOOD (AND A STRATEGY ACCESS TO FRESH WATER) ___________________________________________ +It is a Project benchmarking as no corporates ever try before to deliver fresh water from aircrafts through 2 oz pocket water purifier air drops over flooded lands by using drones, microlights,.... +It is in the right new thinking and the innovation proned by the UN to reduce flood increases in a world of global warming
b)Main business sources World Co : - Business: Japanese women’s apparel retailer World Co Ltd (« World ») - President, Hidezo Teri, believes in speed and responsiveness for his business -Championing the SPARC , the Super –Production- Apparel Retail –Consumer- Satisfaction -Start with new Brands and monitor them, then improve the production system , -Insure coordination with planning, production, development and marketing , and allows each store keeping units (SKU) to make better production: lead-times and volumes -Importance of cost in the space (Real Estate): influencing the retailer organization: independant – stand alone stores -, shops in fashion malls –grouping of stores in a building, or shops within Department stores . Stores are targeting different kind customers, implying various brands (40) - Lead-time for replenishment (from the order to the delivery: 2 weeks - Design, produce and ship new products to the retail stores within 6 weeks -Interesting point: WORLD produces on forecasted demands. The reference store for the Forecast is Obermeyer (OberMeyer forecast method) –forecasts based on previous season, then through adaption with P-D-C-A and also the annual meeting in Japan. (OberMeyer Vote meeting) - Dream project: cost cutting, reduction of inventory and the quality of the SPARC network [Ref.: Dr Schallembaum IIM MBA CNAM, Havard Business Cases, Operation Management Case Book]
c)No waste Production Principle Energy Information Products Waste Recharge Reuse Retention 3R System
d) Sample of production on forecast Water crisis unit mangement Prediction and outputs P-D-C-A Annual meeting Idea: nobody can manage water stocks, but if we know where water is in quantity and quality, we may be able to make something Forecast like the Ober Meyer method Raw material/ labor inspectorate Lead-times, Communication Management Transport Start Checked forecasts Water locations: look-out point Base, MIS) New deci- sion to pro- duce for next year forecast H E A D - Q U A R T E R S Lead-times, Communication Management Transport IFM branches Overseas Vertical integration Out sourcing home Foreign country End Lead-times, Communication Management Transport Lead-times, Communication Management Transport Needs and representation GS RADJOU
e)Business source: CEMEX (dealing with changes: diversity & sustainability) CEMEX : 98 years old Mexican multinational, Ready Mix Concrete and Cement, (based in Monterrey), 53 Plants around the World (including USA,…, Phillipines) - Business characteristics: Cemex: concrete business asset intensive and of low efficiency with umpredictable demands - 8000 grades of mixed concretes and forward them to 6 regional mixing plants, each with its own fleet of trucks . - customer routinely changed ½ of their orders , sometimes only hours before delivery and it may be re-routed because of weather changes, trafic jams or problems with building permits, Cemex’phone lines were often jammed as customers, truckers and dispatchers tried to get orders strait… - Boss: Laurenzo, Zambrano grand son of the founder.1985 implement IT in the business From no technology to the use of a build in system to link trucks with GPS to monitor dispatchers for location, direction, speed of every vehicules. - Customers, distributors and suppliers can use internet to place orders directly, check Shipment delivery times, and review payement records without having to telephone A customer representative services (Source: Kenneth Laudon, Management Information System)
Note: What is humanitarian is looking like CEMEX dealing with customer uncertainties Criticisms on humanitarian actions for not being proactive, reacting to events, the lack of anticipatory mangement The world of hazard management like the CEMEX business is full Of sources of risks and uncertainties WAER project is a possible model of fresh water delivery to manage these sources of uncertainties to the supply of fresh water during the flood
f)Today firm Management Information System Management Organization Technology MIS Business solution Business challenges Develop fast fashion strategy Develop design and production processes Deploy inventory replesnishement process (Source adaptation: Kenneth Laudon—MIS--) Water Aero Emergency Relief Information System [Source adaptation: MIS] Environment Cost cutting Energy saving Job creation CRS Water infiltration Malaria reduction Water trucking Flood people Their expectations
Real time versus forecast (new: 10/06/2010) Idea origin: development of i-pod -> into i-pad allied with google earth make it a usefull tool for huanitarin actions on the disaster fields I gave it is new name: open field virtual classrom (ofvc) It describes the life of a master of emergency at headquarters instructing or educating (perhaps simply a mean of the daily environment) staffs or citizens at very remote places -in these disaster zones – how to survive in the real time. There is no forecasts or predictions (this tool could be under construction) or software modelling , but all instructions are in real time.
g)Project Business Model Water trucking Drone C U S T O M E R B A S E CRM Flood Event Water supply Decoupling More than one alternative to Water trucking Data base Schools Hospitals Businesses Tourists Armies Households disabling enabling 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier GS RADJOU
h)Planning ressources (a conciliatory match betwen needs and supplies) Planning Resources Space Time Calendar Assumptions on flood types Classes of activities or standard Work ? Coverage of the dark zones (uneasy to forecast) Flood increase Product Base Planning Finish with tasks And allocate resources: Manpower per hours Materials GS RADJOU
various links: Flood policy and Flood measures in link with the project windows
Contacts Outside SIWI
IBM Chief Technology Officer (Mr Williams)
The Federal Emergency Management Assistance
US Geology Dept (Flood Marketing and training division)
US Rothchild Fondation for Education
Other various contacts
j)For more info: reference Mains 1-Institute International of Management (IIM CNAM MBA) =>Lectures of MBA topics representing the real world of Corporate multinationals 2-Stockholm Water International Institute (SIWI): =>World Water Making policy organization and my last participation in 2009 for the consulting project (SIWI Administration, communication officer Joshia Paglia: firstname.lastname@example.org) 3-World Meteorological Organization (WMO): =>about forecasts and better predictions (influence of lead-times), meeting in Costa Rica in 2006 NOAA, USAID and WMO and email@example.com (WMO Homepage) 4-IFR HelpDesk (WMO/GWP Flood division): =>about IFR HelpDesk (Director C. Avanashi of the flood division or type directly on the internet « GS RADJOU » for my individual contribution with Dyamashita) 5-Water subsidies and Water Human rights => Collective participation in decision making process: SIWI Administration, Dr. Ahmadaza Husamuddin and UN expert on Water Human rights In addition FEMA (US Federal Emergency Management Assistance): =>I am registered in their database and I have regular contacts with the Flood assistance, adaptation and mitigations services. US Fed Geology Survey Department: => Through their Marketing department, I learned about their flood software International Business Machine (IBM): => Mr William, Chief Technology Officer, I shared through emails with the CFO a common vision of a water infrastructure service: IBM Water leadership, really. GreenBizz (Green Business): =>Organization that runs a Webmedia front runner in matter of discovery new entries in the world of green stewardship in all framework of activities
b)Data on Natural disasters 2009 : 55 millions people suffer severe stresses with disasters (Mr J. M. Jarraud, WMO President Ref: WMO website) 2008 : -214 millions humans affected by natural disasters, -235 000 killed ones - Total Billing: $190 billions in damages -Disaster Costs increase since 1960 -Number of dead stabilized at: 200 000/year -United Nations warned to take specific actions since 2005, if not there is a risk to jeopardize development A few disaster figures
International community tools against disasters
-give the alert (raise the alarm)
-inform the rescuers of disater places
-play a major role in dispatching the aids
-phenomenal speeds of the calulators help to deal with the need to treat huge flux of data. –
(For instance Meteo France 2007, Net SX 6R, treats 2300 billions of operations per second.)
c) Sattelite network:
250 sattelites with tools to observe the Earth –up to 10 tools-
A 4 day forecast is equivalent to a 1 day forecast , 15 years ago
Environment Research « Le Monde, Special Science », Nov-Dec 2009 p-42
b)Project flood communication DRINKING WATER SUPPLY AND FLOOD PLAN
Environmental: sand bags, walls are environmental uncompatible
Cultural: drones and water purifiers are technologies for everybody –developped or
Economy: drone: $30, pocket water purifier: $10
GDP: diseases and deaths reduce the country task force and revenues
International projects: in principle, some water project horizon lines are too long (it is
one option of the vicious cycle of the pover chain)
Displacement: increase of refugees during a disaster fleeing the flood zones
Urbanism: impervious surface and mass productions. Flat surfaces
Description of the project in non-technical terms I think, there is an analogy to be drawn with what François Careme, Programme Network and Energy Management Director at EDF-The French National Energy Company- when he said in Environment Research « Le Monde, Special Science », Nov-Dec 2009 p-41 the following points helping me to comment for debating of my project orientation, and, again by analogy. 1°-…« Recours grandissant aux énergies renouvelables pourraient conduire à un accroissement des perturbations du réseau Électrique »… Due to the fact that the wind flows are not continuous –wind is an intermediate energy, illimited but variable in flows- (I think it is correct, because networks may be compatible to a certain limit) 2 °-….also, the text adds …« Germany is number one in the world for the electricity generated from wind mills- Decentralized production units-, but supplies are often disrupted. There is great disavantadge, when the wind falls down, the electrical power supply would be annuled if the germans did not introduce a kind of compensation In the ways of more traditonal ways to produce electricity »…(I think it is correct, we are never sure when the wind will stop blowing-there are still a solution with batteries to stock energy, I suppose) As I understood the text, german households proeminently –firstly- use electricity generated from soft supplies (not nuclear or oil electricity generated power supplies), then when there is a potential/real defiency in the soft supply sources, there are tops-up energy contributions by national more traditional centred energy firms -sourcing with hard energies. The delivery of electricity needs match an in-ward process- orientation from the peripherial drives –mission unit organizations eg households, firms..- supplying its own electrical energy, and afterward if households/firms lack of electricity, there is an external assistance call made for more traditional sources, this time, I suppose, in charge of the German Federal State companies to deliver from and above the insufficiences
Description of the project in non-technical terms 3°- The Programme Network and Energy Managing director at EDF added : « … in France electricity network architecture are heading only one way, as well as power supply framed – I suppose EDF monopolistic (?) electricity state company, with all the good willing to advocate for decentralization cannot deliver on the promise of set a perfect network of self autonomous ways to produce electricity at decentralized scale levels – your own facility to produce your own electricity, with your own sources to my knowledge are still inexisting or not developped, today. One reason is what the Progamme Network and Energy Managing director had suggested in the text eg. the bottlenecks of past energy infrastructure options, which would render uneasy decentralized electricity production units –therefore keeping a more functional way to produce electricity in France (maybe not the case in Germany) The other reason is about expenditures raising from diversification of sources -from the mission units. Theret would be a Cost to pay for the policy energy diversification. The energy fragmentations with no correlation with people needs. And again, the french Electricity society may end-up with the need to another kind of concentration or centralization. My conclusion is , « I think, France is a small country in size, with a small population with an influence based on the use of technological prowesses to produce electricity generated from traditional forms of energy – the dominant way is Nuclear energy, which shaped the network infrastructure and development options, reversely for germany with another production option, which may be difficult to reverse because of the small size of the population, also. A centralized way to generate electricity matters for France –as a decentralized way for Germany. Now what direction for the future of electrical networks, when addressing large scale organizations with significant population sizes. In fact, as the Programme Network and Energy Managing Director at EDF is questionning, in « Le Monde »: … «Can we introduce a large Scale decentralized production? » …
Description of the project in non-technical terms My project contribution tends to answer positively to the question of large scale organizations and I am taking to illustrate my debate on qualified flood organizations that have a long history of fighting floods. I have already described in the project paper (ref.: Wateter needs in towns and fields in disasater zones) the case of America, with FEMA-the US Fedal Emergency Management Assistance and the State of California flood organization. There is an obvious relationship between weather and hydrology services linked to the nature of the commerce of weather and hydrology. NOAA –National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration- is in charge of this service and NOAA is a branch of the US Federal Dept of trade. I felt, coming from the media attention –Katarina or Mexico gulf hurricane predictions-, emergency trends tend to be a rather centralized oriented way to solve flood issues under control of FEMA. The role model of the service and the Emergency infrastructures, options are probably attached to the particular characteristic of the population nature and the size, which FEMA is serving. Now, comparing to Holland or Bangladesh, which have different flood strategies, I would qualified more adaptative and decentralized. They helped me in a way to illustrate my flood model partly for the emergency rescue builders with a participation approach focus on decentralized forecast production units, using firstly basic local resources before applying to external assistance -as I felt more predictions need more acccess to data, in turn there is a need for more traditional investment in hard material in order to capture these software needs (for the forecast simulation) Instead - like Germany for electricity supply network (and also Bangladesh and/or Holland applying adaptation using Basic networking, I have fancied much more a model of flood fighting based on decentralized unit of forecast productions –first. I found these models more appropriate to international agenda and perhaps may avoid future bottlenecks in network Infrastructure –my viewpoint taking into account the experience of electricity supply network and energy source Diversification described in the text: « Environment Research, Le Monde special science, Nov-Dec 2009.
c)Floodplan –including drinking water supply- and Health plan In principle, factors that favour diseases –germs- development are the hazards –physical, chemical and biological and their drivers: For instance, factors that can fuse germ multiplications are: -Water temperature, -Water pH and water contaminants -Germ types and behaviors (carriers and pests) -People hygiene and vaccines -People –including staffs- motivation and training -Architecture, design and urbanism of the environment -Health system performance (collectivity, private or hybrid) -Water physical appearance (cleanliness, turbidity, presence of soil) -Water flow speeds (speed up or slow down flows) -Water treatment and waste water treatment -Research & development on cross contaminations during floods -Price of medicaments and affordability during disasters -The hygiene laws, principles and guidelines and pervasions ....... - A full project Picture is about correcting all these Source of risks
a)Lab 1: Flood type influences [rather risk orientate] (Severity, Influences on the people expectations, options and planning) Flash floods In few hours with great Impact on the water elevations River floods Water Flowing out of the river banks Monsoon Create great Damages in case of flat/ coastal countries Melting snow Surprisingly specially with climate changes Soil perviousness Influence of cities and urbanism Tidal Sea water Huge impacts on the coastal lines with possibility to penetrate far inner lands Natural disasters Giant waves With a mega flood. Also, landslides and hurricanes Man made disasters Landslides wars and dam ruptures Tsupoles Water droning … . Defences: Walls Abstracts … . Raising the house The salvation comes from the ability to be above Flood water Going against Water, Which is a fluid Mitigations: enforcement Quality, Planning … Technical preventive measures to avoid the damages Adaptations: Strategy, Waterscape, Digging … Organizing the space to live rooms for water expansion Politics, policies and police Land planning, Environmental controls, Tree planting evacuation orders … Shelters Refugees Appeals Compensations Insurances … . Human activities to help
b)Lab 2: Flood type influences [rather spatial orientate] Flood from the sea The Sea Inland flood from surge Rain waters River Flood Country Y Country X A river Water elevation outside the river bed flash flood Rain Country Z
c)Lab 3: Flood Plan (Timing) (Ref.: project flowchart slides) Base Prototype preparadness Long-term Planning (Policy, access to base) Flexible Planning (strategy Deploy ment) Instant planning (operation) -Adaptation Strategy -Long-term mitigation- Water Supply During flood Within a year (1day) 3 days Week 15 days 1 month 3 months Key symbols Capacity building Preparadness Prototyping operation Flood detector Look-out point RFID 1 to 3 years Medium Range plan S3 S2 S1 Long-term preparedness Medium term preparedness Emergency Ref.: from the flowchart
Preparedness cycles S1:Preparadness Long-term S2:Preparedness Medium term S3: Emergency Capacity building Need analysis And engineering Sampling Activation Production Tests M A N D A T E Forecast 25 days-to 4 months 60’ 72 hours
Tasks and timing of the mission works Engineering works adapted to the sufferer needs-types of contractual agreements with the customers 1-All engineering works-all around the year 2-Weekly works-emergency rescue 3-Holidays works-individual household or small communities with possibility of discounted prices 4-Dream works to cater customer needs-all phases of the project Lists of tasks : T1: MIS implementation T2: Warning Alarm/alert communication T3: Process for membership T4: Flood surveillance T5: Flood reporting and communication T6: translation T7: Business and trade T8: Preparedness for the emergency T9: Call centre, Webdesk and Telephone alert T10: kid preparedness
e)Lab 5: Mission plans 3 days 5 days 7 days 15 days Mon Tue Wen Thu Fri Sat Sun W1 1 day W2 W3 W4 W5
b)Lab 1: Brundtland Commission and Millenium Development Goals Mrs Gro Harlem Brundtland (formerly WHO Chairwoman) +Deterioration of human habitat +Our common futur +Long-term perpective for development (>2000) + UN Resolution: A/RES/38/161 +(UN GA 1983, prepares the commission) Brundtland Report : full version, it is about sustainable development and the policy change engagement for achievement, a Centre for the World balance) --Report accepted in A/Res/42/187--. MDGs: 1, 7, 8 [Ref.: Wikipedia]
c)Lab 2: UN-Water and the concept of Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) a spur a mountain crest a river course + + + + + + a sea a delta a village house a reef (or an artificial island) a lake IWRM a road Scenario case: 1 river basin=1 IWRM (Influence zone on the life of the community around the River. Comprehensive changes occurs in a package of solutions that harmonize/integrate the whole river basin activities.
d)The same concept applies in flood management ( Integrated Flood Management --IFM) Sea rises Spurs + + + + + Water penetrations into the land Mountains Village (Houses) IFM IWRM IFM Flood
e)Sustainable development - taking decisions- Cultural values Free discussion Clear decison Full support New choice Contractual Agreement (laws) Conflict zone Individual (Market) DEPENDANCE I N D E P E D A N C E More or less…. Source: High Output Management
a)Lab 1: Living with floods (Waterscape orientations) Putting people over flood waters at all times Leaving water to its natural expansion river Rooms for expansion Pools Canals Parks Tunnels Artificial rivers Drains Refill aquifers -Islands -Boats -Shelter -Dry feets -Elevation houses … New architectures Tower Cathedral Water castle Light houses Scaffolders Platforms Sky scrapers … . debordement Water is a fluid, when it is blocked, water comes somewhere where it is unexpected.. Creating Dry feetconditions
I-THE FLOOD SCIENCE TO BACK-UP THE DETECTORS (sensors)
a)Lab 1: The flood concept (Source: WMO flood programme) The rain Run-offs Pollutions Floods Sediments The land The river The Sea [Source adaptation: WMO Flood program] FLOOD IS GOOD FLOOD AND/OR BAD
b)Lab 2- Measuring run-offs and forecasting: -the hydrograph-
Flow (cfs: cubic feet second) 2,400 0 Time (Days) Peak of the discharge (for a strench of a river) 6 Type II 24-hr Rainfall=5.20’’ Runoff Area=768.000 ac Runoff Volume=167.195 af Runoff Depth > 2.61’’ Tc=20.0min CN=75 [Source adaptation: EROSION CONTROL US WATER SURVEY] A sample of simulation for IFMA1 (Pond 3) -See slide in project WBS for explanation- Pond 2 Pond 1 Pond 3 Analogy System: pond collectors
c)Lab 3-The soil water infiltration capacity (« The flood laws ») Transmission zones Wetling front soil with Antecedent water context Saturated zones Water supply to soil surfaces Theoritical zonation fo to fc tc Infiltration Capacity Maximum of water Time Decline of infiltration capacity During rainfall events (Sources: Joseph Holden-(J.H.) John Anthony Allan (J.A.A.), ILEA, SIWI) Impervious surfaces due to : -urbanism, -no adaptation -unfunctional waste treatment -no trees … .. Soil structure: Cracks in the soil Soil moistures Soil texture Soil compaction … . 100km (J.H.) (J.A.A.) (ILEA) (SIWI)
d)Lab 4: The project reporting reference: -World Water Week 2009- Natural water features (Naturally contaminated) 100km Look-out point Best places were a watch person can contemplate a flood Directly –no technology- or with the flood indicator. Boundary land/ water feature [ More flood Indicators (sensors) in the 100 km Where the likelyhood of flood is important (Balancing act between benefits, costs for risks)] 100 km boundary A water feature (river, lake,...,sea) The pollution risk area on land Sensors on the ground help to map these Advance of the flood front and assess location and speeds (See slide on flood detector map for the redeploiement strategy of flood stations Source: World Water Week 2009 Uncertainty distance for hazards due to water flows either at subsurfaces or underground infiltrations Sensors Hazard Early Warning System Source Issue Detection
e)Lab 5 - Flood crisis monitor - 100km risk zone - 100km Run-off curve (normal) crisis Return to base line (Statistics) Aquifer Flood Prevention Mitigation Adaptation Engineering Works, maintenance (Time) Distances Drone flight distances June Nov Jan 0 km Sea Other networks Hh Discharge lines Flood Predicitions from forecasts (International Organizations, Weather forecasts) WAER Flood predictions (Or WAER confirmed floods Through its own network) Long lead-times Short lead-times Recommendation 1 WAER Stand-by WAER Activation Risk run-off curve (deviation) WMO, IHO, IMO Other networks Legend -WMO: World Meteorological Organization -IHO: International Hydrology Organization -IMO International Maritime Organization -Hh : house location 100km line helps to find likelyhood flood locations installation of the look-out points Validation Model In density population areas Drone activity + Business Model [Ref: SIWI, adaptation of World Water Week 2009 Reporting-see the annex-] Dec Land
f)Ref.: Numbers of validations models behind the science from World Water Week 2009 +The 100 km zonation from a water feature is significant for preventing pollution damages -Ref.: Swedish Enforcement Dept, +The 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier deals with a high number of populations -Ref.:World Meteorological Organization, Flood Division, Technical Unit, in the authorization process to place my main project business component in the Integrated Flood Resource Management Helpdesk. +The blue line is a monitor curve—a sample of flood water elevation with the period of the year—it is an expectation from forecasts, a contemplation of river feature water run- offs, synonymous of river discharges at certain points in time in the wonder world free of flood disasters.What should be if mitigations were perfect to avoid negative impacts occuring during a flood (deviation curve): loss of lives, destructions of properties and the livelihood, various casualties and injuries, deathtoll increases and disease spreads up to certain deaths… + The flood seasons: assumptions are based on the hurricane starts in June in the USA and ends in Nov-Dec --Ref.: World Bank i.e. worst Hurricane in Haiti ever was end of November 2008– and, the drougth period in Phillipines is between January and May of the year —Ref.: WMO and the dam discharges in the Phillipines.
h)Lab 7: Environmental significance of the 100 km boundary zone of water features 100 km boundary zones of water features are likely to be impacted more severely by pollutions. Aquifer/sub-surface waters can travel far away enough from their original sources with good soil facilitation Factors: infiltration capacity, structures, perviousness and soil surfaces. Floodwaters infiltrated into the land combines their pollutions with the ones carried by natural water courses during normal conditions. Loads of pollutants are: the soil unwanted materials, germs, others… Flood events are the most common disaster (with the highest predictability), still predictions are unreliable. For instance, if there is a strong rain, an earthquake, the municipality water supply disruption,…most places – except in places with serious flood indicators -- have no reliable flood plan and cannot control them. The pollution context in 100 km risk zone, add ambiguity to the cultural aspect of flood. For such reasons, the importance of good quality predictions has a higher significance in the 100 km . Physical Chemical Biologocal Types of Pollutions GS RADJOU
i)Lab 8: important remark on the 100 km (flood is good, flood is bad) Normally, the flood prone regions and floods are very relevant to the development of most country economies (GDP). In principle, the soil natural sedimention process due to flood run-off waters contain the natural ingredients for the soil fertilization. It is a crucial/trivial cultural agreement/ingredient for flood sediment inputs for small or large farms (Ref.: FAO, UNDP, WMO…). With the increase pressure of development drivers, pollutions with floods are complex and impacting traditional mode of productions. In the project, the flood water will never be as good as willing so, thus supply of fresh water sources are very likely to be contaminated by the fertilizers –and also, artificial pollutants- The rational assumption is water supply unfit for the human consumption during a flood. And, if there is no evidence based policies that secondary sources are well mitigated, all waters in the flood prone region are perillous to drink. The project business case is an alternative way to supply drinking water in emergency conditions. Thus, making the 100 km zonation irrelevant for drinking water.
a)Project strategy THE IDEA IS A LEVERAGE SYSTEM THAT SPEEDS UP AND INTRODUCE SOME SHORT-CUTS INTO THE SUPPLY OF FRESH WATER DURING EXTREM WEATHER/HYDROLOGY CONDITIONS LIKE A HURRICANE, FLOODS… Starting point of the strategy + Rare are the cases when you can move people outside their cities during a flood predicted time. (because lead-times are always uncertain –nearly, and emergency evacuations when started are never 100% successfull at completion). + The municipality water supply is disrupted and water trucking cannot go to deliver fresh water to citizen at risk of flood. +Harvesting water from wells or other water alternatives are impossible. + We have to realize than nobody can stay without drinking over 3 days. People would not stand alone and refrain drinking dirty water. Vision : World free of water poisoning during a flood. Statements : reduction of death tolls and maalria reduction in the aftermath of the flood. Development based on mission organizations. Missions : +More than one alternative to water trucking and emergency +Building green and the sustainable environment +facilitate the water flow through adaptative strategies +Use of modular scaffold to improve infrastructures
LOCAL BASE SIDE (DRONE) FLOOD SIDE (IFM) Retailing structure Energy Power Supply Households WAER WATER AERO EMERGENCY RELIEF (WAER) COUNTRY ASSISTANCE MODEL Local (Or Parcel delivery On-line Shopping) 2 oz Pocket water purifier b)Partnering for retail infrastructures & trade Traditional purchase, supply and delivery system Capacity building (IF 1, NO 2) Order Supply Flood detector Assembly base Data collection MIS MIS Delivery GS RADJOU 1 2 RELIABILITY PRINCIPLE
LOCAL MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM HOUSEHOLDS MIS MIS W.A.E.R. MIS BASE SIDE HOUSEHOLD SIDE c)Plant partnering for flood information system MIS : -Internet access -Computer -Mobile phone -Flood detector -RFID … Existence of a MIS community Capacity building Boundary
WAER ACTIVATION MIS MIS RETAILING ON-LINE SHOPPING ENERGY POWER SUPPLY FLOOD SEASON Households d)Country activity break-down structures flood Capacity building Flood Management Information System (FMIS) MIS boundary Assistance cell Country cell
WAER IN STAND-BY QUIET SITUATION HOUSEHOLDS ARE NOT AT RISK OR THE FORECAST HAS NOT BEEN YET CONFIRMED WATER TRUCKING COMPARING NPV > 0 OF BOTH SYSTEMS CHOICE ? e)More than one alternative to supply fresh water Drone In principle, water trucking is disabled during a flood disaste and WAER is enabling the fresh water Capacity building
f) Firm organization Air IFM zones water Drone Assembly base Flood detector Parcel delivery On-line shoping Trade Domestic Spate Tree planting Pipes (Soft, hard) reservoir Scaffolds Water pumps House elevation Stone Aqueduc Look-out points Forecast no detector Walls GPS Camera Phone RFID Internet Telecom. Depart. Geography Retailing WAER MULTINATIONAL: MULTI PRODUCT/SERVICE BUSINESS BLOBAL CORPORATE, BUT NOT A CONGLOMERATE --ONLY ONE BUSINESS WATER SUPLLY DURING A FLOOD-- Executive Board Finance Non executive board Inter national Project Technology Orthodox Non Orthodox Disaster and hazards Insurance Assessment CSR Hub Technical Barges Canals Project components
a)The basic of production Operational Drone ready Manufacturing flows Selling process Inputs Progress Drone assemble with water purifiers Prepredness Flood ? Alert confirmed Pre-alert Assembly Warehouse Drone Water purifier Preparedness Prediction (6-7 days) (60’ responsiveness In day 0 of the preparedness) Assembly authorized order selling prospect Drone Flights 2 oz pocket water purifier/ good quality drops Flood identified zone Households Drinking water Water trucking disabled Forecast (deliverable: weather bulletin) Production on forecast demands Control/Monitor zone Deliverable (happy people) A project starts with a deliverable and finisheswith a deliverable. Manufacturing flow is the project operation Output Inputs Materials Labors Data Flood MIS Base Look-out Points (IFM) ‘ flood
b)The Project Life Cycle (Preparedness and Emergency) Project starts Project ends Meeting Investment decision Gas phase R & D of the business system +Flood forecasts +Flood mitigations +Scaffold resistance +Lead-times +alternatives +project benchmarks +project funding +project equity Decisions Growth Time Birth date development phase Maturity phase Death phase decaying phase ascent phase launch phase NPV>0, project viability Planning the project Execution Directing the project
c)Project Product PLC 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier Modular scaffolds ULM Balloon Helicopter Drone Delta wing Assembly Launcher Supports Car Scooter Bike Truck Van Rails Aircraft carrier Air drop products Sea drop products Canoe Boat Raft Speed boat Water bike Water scooter Local stores On-line shopping Household purchase Fresh water During a flood Before flooding During flooding 2 4 4 1 2 6 4 Tracks n° Hydrocraft Hoovercraft Water scooter Water cycle
d)Sustainable development (CSR&Change Management) Initial stage Indirect Direct old Combining system (reliance on both for a while) new Transitory period Final choice Business Engineering System that could match environment and regulation for changes constraints Time Help to Understand The choice Of the technology Linked with The sustainability development Economy, society and the environment Firm choices T-2 T-1 T-0 c’’ c<c’<c’’ c’ c
e)The building a flood process Data Centres UNDP Flood zones Sustainable World National Governments Spates UN UN- Habitat Centre for the World Balance: focus on flood zones ABS
a)Ref case: Haiti, Nov 2008 –Worst flood in a century ever- Worldbank grants/IDA financing the recovery
b)WAER Project Mandate (1) (PROJECT BASE LINE BUDGET FOR THE FIRST YEAR IN OPERATION)
Project estimate for the first year is a projected amount based on the number of water related disaters. This is the base-line budget for the initial investment during the 1rst year for the 10.000 « base-vies » also called segements, bases or platforms and look-out points . These contain the following components: drones, 2 oz water purifiers and the daily overheads and costs for running the project (items).
Cost of 2 oz water purifier: $10
Cost of a drone: $30
Revenues in multiple of 250 million (Source: Sample estimate based on multinational earnings. For instance, Walmart 2 first quaters net profit in 2009 Equalled $1.5 billion
c)WAER Project Mandate (2) - Millenium Development Goals (MDGs) -Based science -Sustainable development -Environmental change -Energy conservation -Bio-diversity -Job creations -Innovation -Crisis integration: finance and disaster -Park development: flood zone, planting trees and clean water -Geneva zones: flood zone improvement for protection of women and kids -Partnerships -Task force: EAP (Eastern Europe, Caucasus and central Asia (Note in EUWI EU Water Initiative) -Tax, trade and transfer. … .
a)People needs (1) Psychology Security/safety Society Self-Esteem Actualization Old theories based on fears from bottom-up to top down fxplains people needs and drivers of our behavioral motivations Modern theories explain there is no only one unique way into the need Pyramid. It is illustrated with lots examples in life: money, water…
b)People needs (2) + It is an engineering need : it is about the component one would need to ensure the project success. It is going beyond the 2 oz pocket water purifier only (single project). +In order to drink water. Users may need the water purifier--of course– but firstly, before drinking the water, one should ensure, the household is not drowning, for instance the flood sufferer has a senior house. It does not crumble with the flood flow. +The 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier is directing the project (cut people thirst within 72 hours of the flood arrival time and refraining people to drink dirty water within this period of time). + Also, how do you market the need …. It is the Portofolio project management that would answer this question in the WAER project. So, there are lots of business components –products and services- to satisfy fresh water supply needs. My favorite solutions are on next slide and they are composing the ultimate goal of the WAER project
Water needs in town and field during a flood. Engineering needs required : A- single project : drop of pocket water purifiers to cut people thirst in a safe way. B- Portofolio project : it may not be enough to ensure that people do get access to fresh water, WAER needs to contribute more than just drops to help: ensure people are safe ideally look after maturity of their houses (senior houses) and the presence of an MIS for communication purpose. Pocket water purifier drops still required during the emergency. c)The business case
d)The project goals Ensure : self-sufficience reliance and independance when facing flood adversities based on the sustainable strategies. Also, achievement of the MDG and the building of a new urbanism (the adaptation strategies and the mitigations) cooping with flood in the 21rst century.
e)The projects of various organizations Demand for Assistance Providers of Flood products and Services The Flood Platform WAER PROJECT FLOOD DIVISION WMO Weather/Hydrology FORECASTS (Bulletins,…) Assumption: easy distinction, but not so strict, as all of them needs each others: evidence based: global changes; environment, finance,… NOAA is a branch Of the US Dept of commerce WMO: provider of weather/hydrology services to individuals/ businesses Project components: Deliverables Forecast Networks IFR HelpDesk Bases Look-out points
c)Deliverables Weather/Hydrology deliverables Bulletins Outlooks Warnings Forecasts Country Executive Organization deliverables Country president speech Federal states executive orders Emergency Evacuation orders UN/UN related Organisations resolutions Peace keeping forces MINUTASH Appeals Various deliverables during a water hazard (Source: internet) Construction Utility Permit
d)Mailing list from my own network People participation (prospectives, contacts, partnerships) UN Firms Fondation Others WMO Flood division UNDP World Bank US Federal Governments IBM Water Rockyfeller Education FEMA Geology Survey SIWI IIM MBA CNAM Pole Emploi Cadres Including: 2 oz Pocket Water purifier and Technology Pole against tsunamis WHO ITDG U.K. Taxes Abbey bank Friends Starting from (The tsunami* in South East Asia– December 26 th , 2004) Like a flood, a tsunami is a giant wave with a mega flood. I have already described, in various papers, a technology against tsunamies (Ref.: SIWI 2007-08 and CNAM University and the following contacts)
d)Project P.B.S. types PBS Single Intermediate Integration Grouping 2 oz Pocket water purifier Typhoon season Planting trees Water aerator machine Water droning Supply chain Flood detection network Households’ Flood Information System Strategy access to bases Detection buoys Flood detectors Flood data stations Drone launchers Mobile phone camera Internet (landline, wi-fi) Retail infrastructure/ trade capacity Civilian Flood platforms
e)Single project It is called single project because the project it-self cannot be breakdown further The business system engineering of the project is about supplying fresh water during a flood: +either directly through the use of the 2 oz pocket water purifier , +or indirectly , in addition flying objects (drones, helicopters, balloons, Ultra light motorized, wings…) will support the delivery. --Also, speed boats in the case accessing to flood zone is through river corridors-- of the 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers to users. Still, the main product remains 2 oz pocket water purifier, which can be found at the local store, on-line shopping before the flood predicted arrival time, or with the drone Delivered during emergnecy situations (flash floods, hurricanes, unpredictable floods…. A sample of practice for the flood preparadness if the house can crumble under the flood: water reserve and food for 3 days, a secure safety boat for the emergency evacuation, safety blankets to keep warm, safety belt, plastic sheet to protect the boat against the rain water inflitration, a pot to clear the excess water from the boat, a rope to tighten the Boat to a fix point…--non exhaustive list--
II-PBS & GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE 2-OZ POCKET WATER PURIFIER
a)Lab 1: PBS- 2oz Pocket Water Purifier- H2O H2O Bacteria A Bacteria D Bacteria B Bacteria C (Global Architecture and Specification) Plastic case Active part Hazardous water side User’s mouth side Manufacturer Claims Claim 1 Claim 2 Claim 3 Claim 4 Digesting process Water waste treatment principle Water hazards eats Legend: Bacteria eats eats eats eats Hazards Bacteria D- eats Bacteria C -eats Bacteria B -eats Bacteria A- eats hazards Bacteria Levels Level A Level B Level C Level D Single Project
b)Performance: 2oz Pocket Water Purifier (Interface specification) Flood water 2oz Pocket water purifier Sufferer can’t refrain to drink dirty water During 72 hours This time the water purifier saved his life The water purifier helped him to re-discover the loss water quality. The 2oz pocket water purifier Placed on the water cycle, as it is cleaning The water, it is a real pocket waste treatment during the flood Clouds
c)Drinking water supply - Water Safety Health Plan (Global architecture) ( Source: WHO internet) Water Resource And sources Treatment Drinking System Consumer system Structure assessment Monitoring Management communication All these components are in WAER project 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier Water sources Drinking system treatment Consumer system
Drone base definition An effective drone base equals: Compulsory items (flood data measures are outsourced) - Item 1 : a drone launch pad : a small size real estate, vehicule or vessel equipped with a drone launcher, - Item 2 : a warehouse to shelter/keep water purifiers and basic recoding tools and The drone operator dash board and computer and radio transmittor, - Item 3 : the flood station to send flood signals captured by the flood detectors, Transmitted by long distance RFID in order to activate the drone launches Additional -Item 4: the flood detector (flood data measures are insourced) Note 1: Flood detectors can be replaced by the look out points. These are special elevation features, artificials or natural equipped with RFID. Flood Detection means or an observator –flood watch person– could anticipate without technology the likelihood of a flood (forecast without technology) Note 2 : A base (grounded) can be replaced with a mobile vector (indirect for the water purifier: a truck, a car, a train, a boat for the drone Launchers or indirect incase water purifiers are dropped from an helicopters or transported by shuttle or speed boats to households)
PBS for a drone (Easy one!) (Terrain Identification Equipment In-board drone) (Drone Inboard Global positioning System) An Optical Flux system Real Drone (it owns inboard navigational devices) False Drone (non autonomous) Drone* (flying robot) *Also known as unmanned aircraft (Ground floor Radio Control Equipment) (Help of operators to assist the flight)
IV-PBS & GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE: RIFD (Easy one!)
a) A definition & history of the RFID 1-Definition - RFID : R adio F requency Id entification. Also, synonymous of tagging. -Nano technologies (using radio wave frequencies) -For the: ->emission, ->transmittion and, ->detection of signals The code bar is the simplest one -for identifying objects/carriers with RFID- (tagging) 2-History : Code bar: use to track a mobile living being by emissions of radio waves (ref.: internet) Other places of randomization of code bar: items (fruit juices, cloths…) in stores are marked (identified) with RFID tags 3-Samples of RFID products -Code bar –passive tagging- -Ingecom RFID -Model IP 65 aquaproof
+ the receiver (tag controller) during a transmission process. It is either passive if the bearer pass is just reflecting the tag controller identification signal. The bearer tag can be self power with its own identifcation ( active tagging) and energy supply.
+ mission box , active part have the same electronic performance and characteritics when supplying the radio waves.
h)Long distance RFID The use of screen antenae increases the power of transmission
i)Lab 2: RFID Global architecture Flood Management Information System Long transmittance detector via RFID or cable or internet The choices of linkage between a flood prone region and the households will depens on the type of Management Information System (MIS) and their connectivity with the environment. Regulatory roles of national/government trade and telecom departments in facilitating the technology development to protect their citizens. Anyway, I think such system efficiency would be based on: -wifi -telephone -access to bases -detector facilities -computer networks -television -RFID … .
j)Household MIS/Flood Detection Network Service (Global architecture) Mobile Phone Camera Flood detector Flood base RFID Socio-media event Water quality Water speed Water elevation Treament Internet Computer Broadband GPS Visual data Flood context capture F L O O D Water station Drone base Households Flood process World Meteorological Organization Network Weather and hydrology forecasts RFID hydrology forecast Network service Network powered with nanotechnologies, mobile phone cameras, internet, wi-fi and GPS for flood event captures/media
a)Lab 1: PBS - Flood Indicator Components- (Active parts) Water flows Rotating wheel beam A float Water ascent Float mobilization Up-lift Vertical rotating wheel configuration
b)PBS: Flood Indicator components (distal parts- (Cyclometer type) Rotating wheel Detector mast (pole) bottom To top beam Side slopes 3.6m/s mA Speedometer Mode A (Speed) Mode C (Elevation) Aluminium pole Cables Also, wireless Configuration (RFID) Flood height Sited in the house environment Cyclo computer Internet GPS Mobile Data centers x=vt RFID H (cm) Mode B (Time) -Clock -Chrono
c)PBS: flood indicator components (Performance and interface specifications) mast Wheel Stand Solar Panel Cell battery RFID Box For signal transmittance Flood computer Power Cable Data cable Cell -Speed -Elevation -time -location WAER PLAN Flood detector Configuration With a solar panel A stand And a vertical rotating wheel Warning system Flow
d)Lab 1: PBS - Flood Indicator, fixing ends and stands: various configurations - Modular scaffolds A rotating wheel -with palettes- moves up and down when the flood flow tides Various configurations for the ground part of the Detector mast Mast (tube) b) A stand shape for flat surfaces a) Cone shape to (Pick the earth soil) c) Nailing on a piece of wood To a computer For speed and Water elevation Transmittance uses the RFID. Wheel Palettes Mast (or pole) Configuration management Tide down Tide up
e)New versions and configurations for the flood detectors Empty tube section with a ruler bottom To top Float Flood water flows penetrating inside the tube through the window section lift a float. The water elevation in the tube can be read manually or electronically Ball Ascent Increasing layers of water is an Indication of the flood arrival Ruler stick Ho H2 Water ascent Ground: initially without water Calibrated Stones with Light Electoluminescent Diods (LED) for flood night detections The disappearance of the stone light means that water Subsurface reached the warning level New configurations New versions H1 H2>H2>H1 New versions
f)Lab 3: New configuration of flood indicators a water level subsurface a float a water feature bed ° a fix a variable line With the water elevation a rising flag as an indicator shows the importance of the flood safe low high medium danger Water tucking Water droning Flood Tsunami 0 1 2 3 4
g)Flood Indicator (New version) Gamma source Receptor transmittance Signal transmission Flood water h Signal strength Linked to gamma numbers New version The dash line represents the receptor support Cable or RFID for long Transmitance Signals: N(t) (Radio waves, RFID, internet, GPS..) Geiger comptor principle: Detection of number impact N(t) = k (h) on the receptor is a variable of the flood water thicknesses (h) To data centres for analysis, Forecasts and Decision making
b)Lab 2: Flood Indicator / global architecture (Interface specification ) Flood Indicator House RFID transmission 30m-50m Alimentation: Solar energy Flood In development Sited in the garden Security zone (x) Possible Solution: WAER Preparedness (needs) Emergency-Evacuation (needs) x=v.t t=x/v Solution planning Hh Hf Hf-Hh= 30 to 50m Data captures
c)Lab 3: House unit coordinates (Look-out points) D µ H O d H=dsinµ D=dcosµ Tgµ=H/D tgµ = sin µ/cosµ [0<µ<90°] House height (Hh ) Hmax D’ H’ H’Hmax = HHh = tgµ OD’ OD _______ __ ___ __
d)Lab 4: The flood detector and the slope influence Land 100km Flood detector h1 h2 h3 H0=h0 HM Hm H Risk areas RM Rm R d0 d1 d2 d3 100% Safe Conclusion : as long as the house is in the safety zones: no worry a bout flood whatever the season. The house location is function of the season: Hh > Hf and detector not too far from The house. 100km is relevant only if the soil is flat HM: Maximum water Hm:Minimum water H :Average water elevation Hf:Flood elevation Hh:House location Di=hi, with i=1,2,3 house Location (hi) & detector Location (di) with 30-50 Meters variation for the RFID House 100% secure Boundary* 100% safe House at risk depending on the flood water elevation and the house mitigations: walls, piloti, fencing,… Max. risk Min. risk Average risk d0: Flood calibration (Ref:point, GPS location) water Tower zone Piloti house New urbanism Floating house 100% safe House mitigations Low Medium High *Except for flood prone regions
e)Lab 5: The extrem scenarios Saint Michael Mount bay Sea: water elevation at the speed of a horse (60 km/h) Maximum risk house Owner needs a perfect mitigation Himalayian mountains Flood safe house Water rises (8km/h) but the house is safe being located on the mountain slope No need of particular flood mitigations except building high In the mountain Out of reach house The flood trajectory is not a strait line. The real –apparent- flood speed in direction and intensity combines various speed components to culminate to the horse race speed-60 km/h-
A sample of Speeds Body or system Speed (average) walking 10 km/hour (average human walk) Cycling 20 km/hour (flat road) Tsunamy 40km/hour (near the coast) St Michael Mount 60km/hour (Horse race speed) Escape road 80km/hour (From a hazard source)
f)Lab 6: Flood Indicator locations (Global architecture) Along a road (combines with lamp post New version) River bed Crossing a road ( New version 2 ) X=Water elevation µ:time to travel in the water Laser or doppler detection Equation 2 2(d+x) = c[t+µ] d : pole length t : time to travel in the air Equation set 1 D-d= X T=2 (t+µ) c (or v) : speed of light (or sound (doppler)) T : measure between two signals (d,t) Signals 1 2 T Interface specifications In-house Flood indicator Outdoor flood detectors (New version 1) Colorimetry detection (Computer reading in both cases) Cable or RFID transmittance, Also sattelite detection with GPS Flood New versions Based on light waves: 1-the water colometry analysis (opto density: the water thickness) is an indicator of the water depth-elevation- in some cases. 2- Water elevation measures directly -telemetry- the water level
g)Lab 7: Risk drivers (a tool for assessment) (A sample of flood detection influences for forecasts with very reduced lead-times and very fast response) Discharge (flood elevation) Terrain slopes House location Presence of a detector Time Speed Competitors: Increase lead-times Use of software modelling 1 Zone A : Importance of Discharge (6), detector Location (6) and time (ease to solve a flood issue)– easy zone Slopes (2) and house location (2) are minor Flood speed likely to be Medium (3) Discharge : water elevation, strength Location : proximity to the water Time : influenced by the quality of the solution to flood …. In this case it is risky: Flood risk and rupture of water supply, vital For livelyhood and properties flood detector location, senior house with piloti or mitigation. Preparedness for emergency evacuation/water supply individual food ration/safety boat Causes Problems Impacts Zone:importance of slopes only House on a mountain (6.5). It is not at risk-- if not the house is in a flood prone zone = likelihood of danger. For intance a house with a (1) indice House highly perched on the top of a valley slope 2 3 4 5 6 the driver indice For the event intensity The driver type 6 6 5 2 2 For instance: case Zone D
h)Lab 8: Prediction horizon-lines Long range Short-term predictions F O R E C A S T S 6 months to 1 year 1, 2 and 3 years 5-6 years 1 day 3 days 5 days 1 week 1 month Function organization Mission organization Weather Hydrology Medium range
a)Lab 1: Level curves and flood indicator distribution: -the best scenario location- profile A profile B Hm HM Detectors Land sub-surface profiles (topography) 100 km H 0 Plan Profile curves Ho Ho Influence of 100 km Recommendation zone River course Good Water Elevation Average line d 0 dm d Safety beam (100km) Level curve (Profile A) d ’ d’ m d’0 Projection Terrain profile 0 [Ref.note: Spot satellite detection accuracy is 2.5 meters] Profile B
b)Lab 2: PBS: The best location for a flood detector: In search of the look-out points R+ R° Level curve Profile A Hh: house location Hx+=Hx°+dx Hy+=Hy°+dy Hz+=Hz°+dz d µ 100km d0 Hh dM dm Hh 100 km safety range (Likelihood of a pollution zone from a water feature) Radar lectures at various range distances of the water elevations o R° House In danger Flood can be prevented if there is a flood detector And/or mitigations Flood increases and detections Give: speed, timeand distance with RFID mapping d0 dm d dM Flood detectors at various distances: H min, H int., H max The frontline for the rising flood water. The inundation is between 100 km and the d0 Distance line. from the house inside The 100 km zone Flood frontline detectors d
Linkages between flood protections (Personal projects) Technology pole Against tsunami Flood detection mission organized Giant floods Up to 20 meters Speed of the flood –Tsunamy- when crushing the coat line 40 km/hour Detection and warning ten kilometers before the coastline. Emergency evacuation –running fast- towards the Technology pole against tsunamies. Protection system is a 15 minutes emergency preparedness to insumersible safety boats. In approach, they are analogous to those boats found. in Disneyland Parks or the Queen mary safety boats. Capacity: 50 people. The structure is totally covered and waterproof. Boats are attached –linked- to a very high poles (40 meters)-like those found in highways or football stadiums. The cable –like those used for jumping-- are a mix of elastic cable with the property to amortize the crash between the tsunamy wave and the tsunamy safety boat. Flood stations for data communication with civilian protection units Flood detectors based on the use of local resources at look-out points for floodf warning and forecasting coupled to the flood stations with RFID and personal technologies: internet wireless, the mobile phone camera…. The platdorm for water droning. modular scaffolds fixed/raising with the flood elevation. Civilian protection can be extended by using the adap- tation strategies and re- organizing the flood space with buildings analogous to water castles, lighthouses, cathedral architectures, old market places as elevation points-dry feet assembly zones) for civilian protection against flood
PROJECT PLATFORM CONCEPT SCAFOLDING ARCHITECTURE/ PIPES OF VARIOUS SIZES AND STRUCTURES FLOOD Lab1:The Flood Platform: various scaffolds of different sizes Scaffolds: pipes of different Sizes and diameters give more Versatility to the flood architecture Either for strenghteneing a house of Building an instant waste treatment to drain water, or making drone launchers. Modular scaffolds Look-out points Drone bases Water platform House strenghtener Flood detection Launcher station Flood protection House consolidation Vertical scaffold Horizontal Scaffold (waste treatment-pipes) Foundation N
Modular Scaffold (Versatile fixing point) -New configuration- The build-up components for the new architecture –scaffolds and nail scaffolds-- in order to make the house resilient to the flood flow-. Also, modular scaffolds help to make instant elevation points (dry-feet zones) for an affordable price. Pieces of metallic tubes (scaffolds) fixed together or on the bed rock or the house, put people above the flood water like reffinery –oil- platforms Metallic tube (scaffolds) The kneel (gripping part of the scaffold) Scaffold nail A hole in the kneel A ring with holes give 360° flexibility to The flood architecture The scaffold nail into the kneel hole (ring) achieve and maintain rigidity between scaffolds And the flood body architecture A Scaffold 5 m - 10 m kneel
Attachs to fix points: walls, poles… + Supporting body (wall) Scaffold (pipe) screws ( Section view) Scaffold (Axis) (Profile view) To the body architecture (the platform) Bed rock
The flood platform for civilian protection Space lived for flood flows 5m 10m 15m Quick and affordable elevation Points in flood prone regions Kneel and nails Bed rock A wall Details in Slide 137 Scaffold branch Details in Slide 138 Details of the grips
Raising Platform House: elevation house Mini-base for the drones Elevation points Assembly point Refuge-shelter Look-out point Watch Forecasts Flood elevation Flood Indicator for alternative Aids: WAER, Water trucking Local Flood detector RFID GPS Pole Internet GPS Drone + Water purifier computer Mobile phone USB key Cloud technology Optical Flux Assembly Base Surge rain My answer: choice The flood platform
Architecture for important floods – over 10 meters-- Goal : Rendering people more reliant, self-sufficient and independant. Sub-goal 1: Completion of flood adaptation strategies (advocated by ILEA the dutch water architecture and others and various schools, which philosophy orientations are to leave water floods to their natural expansions In digging pools, raising houses/villages with flood tides, building on elevation points or using the fengshui philosophy instead of building walls Sub-goal 2 : Keep a middle trend between adaptation strategies and raising villages in order to get dry feet points during an important flood by changing our representation of ancient buildings like urban/villages cathedrals/ churches, water castles, lighthouses that are vanishing from the countryside landscape for more up to date technologies and organize them for new roles like safety buildings during important floods. (All these building are proeminent buildings, strong and big enough to be assembly building during a flood rescue at predicted arrival times.
New developments for the project (16/12/09) -Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.48-- Divisions harmoniques d’un segment de droite 1/2 1/2 2/3 1/3 1/3 2/3 1/4 3/4
New developments for the project (16/12/09)- adaptation from:(Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.48) Alberti, proportion de la loge Ruccelai (Florence) d H=9d Modular order: ideally the height is a multiple of the corresponding column diameter kD D k=1,…,n n c N Platform d kd
New developments for the project (16/12/09) (Adaptations from: Ref.: Jean Taricat, Histoires d’architecture, Dessin de Jacques Ziegler, Editions Parenthèses, p.80) A 11 m A A A/2 A/2 A 22 m B B 1 2 3 4 5 6 8 7 The dry feet platform Above the flood water Are towering like islands Surrounding with coral Reefs. People will find a safe flood place at the top of high building like churches, cathedrals or ancient market Places. The building undernith allows water flows to circulate while The top stores (over the water play the role of sheltering floors. Connections between wings of various buildings can Be entirely with the use of Modular scaffolds. (analogous to ancient Market places. Note: whole safety zones could be built with modular scaffolds.
Civilian protection against flood: The water castle. Water castle part (receiving humanes) During a flood Water castle foot Perhaps some castle could be Empty from their natural Water before the flood predicted Arrival. To shelter humans at risk of flood. It means That community castle would Have a system to pump out The water before flood. Stairs Sheltering room: 50 people or more
Island development Flood prone region The flood water (innundation) Safety island (dry feet zone) river The Building of a canal is a trap for water Little bridge island bridge Canal (with more or less a drain)
The light house tower Flood subsurface Lighthouse Entrance door (under water During the flood) road Water elevation 4 th floor window
a)Lab 1: Basic description of the river bed compartments Land surface River bed rbs H 0 (average elevation) River section H 0 min H 0 max Land surface Flow (m3/s) = river section x velocity= (H0) x (w) x (d) Canal width (w) river 1s H 0 w d River bed rock River channel strand
b)Lab 2: Hypothetical river regimes (discharges) H 0 H 0 min H 0 max Time Elevation [H = E(t)] Drougth season Wet season annual mean Jan- Dec- Calendar Equatorial river discharge Tropical river discharges Flood line June E(t)
a)Lab 1: The real work is on tHARhe flood line 90°-- Flood detectors located every 20km, at a specific time frequency gives: the flood water elevation. It is the vertical speed of the flood. 90° ½ village 100km 80km 60km 40km 20km 0km river H (elevation) 5m 2m 2.5m 5m 1m The flood average travel is 10km/h on line 90°. At 6 am, the flood frontline was at 40 km from the village. Flood elevation recorded at that time was 1 meters –local detection using the flood detectors. At 8 am, the flood frontline reached a lowest peak. It means the flood receeded during the Last 4 hours before reaching the village. Certainly it was a flash flood of 2 hours away from the village. Detection 2 Detection 1 0.5 m increases between 100km 80 km and Assumption from previous slide Flood speed =10km/h First detection at 0 h 00 (6 hours trip) 0h00 6h00 Detection of the vertical flood speed ?
b)Lab 2: The real work is on the flood line 90°--It is made by the flood detectors placed every 20km. Data collected along the line gives the flood frontline distance and horizontal flood speed (the flood velocity) 90° ½ village 100km 80km 60km 40km 20km 0km river 6 12 18 0 24 Day hours Case : Flood trip : 6 hours. Travel distance: 60 km (on line 90°) Average flood speed, S = 10 km/hour (at night) [60/6=10] Flood frontline: The flood is at 2 hours out of reach of the village. First detection at 0 hour First detection at 6 o clock What is the flood status expectation in 2 hours or with a detector placed at 20 km from the village? ?
c)Monitor 1: Variance of the flood water level with time -Ref.: average level of run-offs in the flood corridor)- Hours (Height) 1m 1h 2m 2.5m 5m 1m Meter per hour Vertical speed of the flood (Variance per hour) 4h 6h (Time)
d)Monitor 2 :Other representation of the flood elevation -at specific distance points- 0.5 With flood detectors spaced of 20 km, the organization is measuring average results 2.5 4 m Average water increase Between 2 measurements of 20Km (In principle every 2 hours) 100km detection 2 increase detection 3 Increase detection 4 decrease 1m 80km 60km 40km 20km +2 2+0.5=2.5 +2.5+2.5=5 5-4.0=1 2m Detection 1 Increase Variance per hour Multiply by 20km => it is the tranche of debit if multiply by the corridor aperture. ? 1 4 3 2 5 0km >0 <0 +2.0 +0.5 +2.5 +1.0 +6.0 -5.0 +1.0 -5.0 d1 d2 d3 d5? d4 Total Data recorded Database fillings Forecasting
a)The link between sediments and flooding Sediment processing over the river bed rock The river water sediments travel down the river Increase of the thickness of the sediment layer Increasing layers of sediments inducing the flooding portion Volume of water over the sediments The water lifted outside the river bed under the influence of the sediment layer formation Level subsurface 1 Level subsurface 2 Before the sediment process After the Sediment process Water flowing downstream the river
b)Flooding due to canal sediments The sediments in formation creating the flooding portion The flood portion in formation (rise up and eventually flooding) River flows Downwards X X’ P1 (flooding sediment –traceable layers) P2 (After) P1 (Before) Accumulation of Sediment layers
c)The link between sediment layers and the flooding portions Riverbed rock Natural sedimentation of the river bed The sediment top layer Equilibrium 1 (Before the hydrolgy hazard) Equilibrium 2 (After the hydrology hazard) X X’ T=t1 T=t2 Y’2 Y2 Y’1 Y1 A2 (t2) A1 (t1) T: time A: sediment layer F: flow (with the sediment) The sediment top layer Flow 1 Flow 2 Water subsurface 2 Water subsurface 1 Flowstream Flowstream A1-A2- = H1+H2 2 H1 = F1+A1 H2 = F2+A2 F1 =/ F2 F2 = F1+A2
d)Lab 3: Issues from Lab 2:. Overflow = run-off inflitration in excess of water infiltration Initial flow volume Excess (due to rain) Flood zone L70° L115° Village location 00 20km 40km 60km 80km Flood detectors Run-off infiltrations in excess cannot be drained by the flood prone zone during flooding. The local detectors are measuring the speeds and the elevations of an excess of water that cannot be drained by the river canal and the split water from the canal spreads on the strand as run-off infiltrations in excess + Run-off infiltration in excess Flooding portion
a)Lab 1: The water flow mouvement (the flood portion model) A River bed A Section of water from the river River flow (Q= m3./s) Land surface (B:b1, b2, b3) Initial increase : Increase 1 = B. It has 3 components (b1: speed, b2: elevation, b3 flow A section). It is less than the riverbed security (rbs) rbs – b2 = rbm (river bed margin) room left over before the flood starts. Flood starts if b2 > rbs Second increase : increase 2 = C (C1, C2,C3). This time, b2+c2 > rbs and b2 = b’2 with b’2 = rbs (with b2 + b’2= rbs) (rbs) River canal River bed margin (rbm) River bed security (rbs) Flood portion Debordement formula (rbs-rbm) +d= c+d d c (1) (2) (3) Equilibrium equation rbm = 0 when rb = rbs+a Canal equation rb = A+rbs
b)The study of the flood portion model Flood portion Flowing into land Sediment layer obstructing the canal
a)Lab 6: Project Risk Cause Problem Impact i Impact j Impact n … . (Warning:project risk case: a water hazard –a flood- with one cause and one problem only with various impacts)
b)Various causes for water trucks being disabled. Here, I selected a water infiltration source-flood- Cause Pb Pb Pb Cause Cause Various causes Flood infiltrations Disabled Water trucking Driver killed Impact Impact Impact Impact Hazard Multi-hazard event Hazard Hazard Looting Looting water Van stolen Impact Water House scrambling Sheltering
c)Problem: Disabled water trucking (and project product life cycle -PLC-) H1 H2 Time Flood condition requirement definition => H2 – H1 > h value at which water trucking Is not physically possible h Elevations Average Run-off line Average Run-off line Project starts Project ends (Project life cycle) Water trucking Deviation increases Water discharge curve Control 1 Control 2 -Monitor -Look-out Points -Flood detector -RFID -MIS Production zone Flood Forecast WMO Look-out points Forecast before flood On order during flood >0 Capacity building Manufacturing Drops Preparadness Project operation
Lab 1: Issue on the technological detections -Where to position the first flood detector?- D2 T=t D1 T=0 River Average water rises between 2 detections How long it takes The water—water river) to be 2 m high (elevation 2m) Importance Of the location Of the first detector To inform about the Real water elevation in order To reduce the variance between The real elevation and the average Too close To the river Laws on flood maybe sum up in: -the soil structure, and -the infiltration capacity. 2 cases: predictible and unpredictible flood Predictible :Look-out points, evidence based policies of the very likely places Where statistically the occurrence of robust floods are highly ( In this case one should not leave in this area ) See statistics on standard deviation and risk (1 sigma, 2 sigma….)
Issue with the detection of the first flood: where and when the 0.5 meter water increase occurs, in between the 2 detections. [When does 0.5 meter added to 2 meters ?]--towards a simulation of the first water elevations, non-fixed discharge-- 2m Detection 1 T=0.00 2.5m Detection 2 T=2.00 River The real curve of the flood elevation: The Flood level increases Average water levels through 2 detections at intervals of 2 hours Excess Of water From the 1rst detection Detection 1: Portion of river flow that travels inland and can create the flood.
Issues : What is the appropriate interval of time for 2 flood measurements? – Normally, the simulation of an hypothetical flood trip travel time between 2 detections allow the determination of the flood speed by the relation: x=vt , x being the trip distance travelled by the flood during the time (t). In principle, the distance x is unknown until, it has been measured (or simulated). In our case, it is known when the flood detectors are put in the flood zone for Monitoring purpose. In real works, the implementation of a distance indication with flood detectors preceeds the speed measurement and also, the time delay measurement between 2 detections that suceed. Note: Besides using technologies to record flood speeds, an experienced flood person --from the local environment presumably-- may be able to have a feeling for the flood speeds—as with various monitors, also-- and do the reverse operations to assess several flood parameters.— It is flood forecasting without technologies.
d)Flood portion as open system exchanging with the environment Flooding portion underground soil Bed rock River bed rock Flood occurs if the soil impervious to a certain extent (see slide 68: flood science and the soil water infiltration capacity) Flood prone regions canal wall Sediments obstructing the canal river channel Sub-surface Soil permeability ( K) Water movements in/out K= kh (soil structure) + kv (infiltration capacity/perviousness)
e)Visualization of the run-off infiltration in excess (Horizontal Permeability/perviousness coeff. kh) Flooding Saturated zone Transition zone Impervious surface Pervious soil Wetling front with antecedent water penetration flood Run-off infiltration in excess if too high it is creating a flood Flood risk: H-h > 0 (water trucking cannot go) kv kv : coefficient of perviousity (soil vertical permeability) River canal Soil
h)Flood detectors are measuring 2 kinds of excessive waters (run-off waters in excess) Transition Saturated Wet with antecedent Soil structure by a river stream (underground under-influence of the canal with the permeability Kt ) River canal in and out Water movements Underground Water circulations K: permeability coefficient, K=kv +kh, kv :vertical permeability --when there is the subsurface water that penetrate the soil sourced from the flood (if the surface is not impervious kv=0) kh: horizontal permeability due to infiltration cpacity depending of the soil structure –see slide 68- kv Natural river channel
i)River flow equations River bed characteristic equations rb = A (a1, a2, a3) +rbs rb = a +( b +rbm) rb= a + b + c (equilibrium equation with b+c= rbs) Debordement formula (rbs-rbm) +d= c+d Equilibrium equation rbm = 0 when rb = rbs+a
j)Lab 8: Departure detector (Dd) river Flood indicator (Dd) A B Annual mean rb-A-G = BA __ b= BA __ Gauging capacity Detection (Indicator) G rb Departure Visual check (room left) Flood portion Where the first flood detector should be placed (Departure detector: Dd)?
k)Lab 9: Special cases for the inundation equation Case 1 rbs – rbm = 0 rbs = rbm -river bed of the canal is with the annual mean of water elevation Case 2 rbm – rbs < 0, river flows varied between the average Water elevation and the maximum water elevation
l)Lab 10: Split Over Strand condition (SOS) b2+c2+d2 > rbs split over strand (sos) I have divided the space over the H 0 in 3 parts: -One part related to variations within the standard deviations (part within the river bed security and such: c2 < rbm) -no debordement- -The part that creates the flood within the rbm that does not split over (sos), when the equilibrium equation is satisfy (desequilibrium equation) The split over condition is validate (sos) for a d2 >0 -Part 3: the sliding part is when the rbs is reduced due to change in the Weather conditions, H varies within the standard deviation outside flood and the river bed security is reduced due to increases of H c [Hmin, Hmax] It is a factor affecting the flood severity H 0 b2 c2 d2 rbs The Sliding theory d2/rbs= [rb – H(t)]/rbs rbm d2
a)Lab 1: Basic models for flooding River bedrock = 0 (elevation) [Maximum height of the river canal= rb (river bed)] rb known Canal charactristics Sub-surface water (average: annual mean) H 0 Notes: 1- Index (0) in H (0 ) is for a specific River, it could be river 1, or river 2 Etc… 2- A means Sum Ai/ n (i=1,2…n) n c N, is the mean of a discret distribution of n measurement for A specific period of time (in the example 1 year. Thus, H 0 the annual mean is a year mean in the region 0 (see slide 90 on various river dischar- ges and standard deviation – variance Of the annual mean of water eleva- Tion in a river canal (Y) River strand River canal (Flood prone area) Land subsurface Y = y(t) variation of the flood portion over time. Also, portion of the river above the river bed Security (rbs) rbs *Normally known through detections of the water advancing inland--flood water raising up, water elevation occurs because of the lack of soil inflitration with the time and soil structures and the distance travelled by the flood from the river channel (see slides 67) Flooding formula (rbs-rbm) +b= a+b rbm
b)Model 1 for flood (improvment):remarks Preliminary remarks Parameters that influence Y= y(t). Y= y(t) is the water elevation due to flooding on the land sub-surface. But does flood occurs? How, When and where? What are the characteristics of the flood? Which elements are influencing the flood characters: -weather types, -river flows, -canal characteritics, -landsurface crossed by the flood. Models presented here and their improvment will attempt to answer these questions in order to find the best detection network.
c)Model 1 for flood (improvment):bis (validation framework) Understanding the basic flood model Conditions for the basic flood model to be applicable. 2 steps process to validate the model: Step one : what are the important data to captures in the flood predicted arrival (or real flood undetected with traditional Means –but could be detected with the new technology) Step two : enouncement of the requirements:
d)Model 1 for flood (improvment):ter (description of the flood with ordinary words) Description of the flood concept (application for the strand of A river –water innundation coming from water flowing over its upper riverbed limit --- called the river strand portion of the river canal facing the land). Perhaps, it can also goes beyond –question to answer later After crossing the river bed, the flood portion travel a distance Variable according to the characteristic of the travel surface on,which it has occured [Intermediate questions? How far the model can be applied beyond the strand? Is the detector well placed at the fringe of the strand?]
e)What happen when water goes beyond its average mean and above the river bed security: Inundation equation (rbs – rbm) + b = a+b –study of the river bed security and flood conditions) H 0 rbs rbm b a
f)Excess of overflow --run-offs in excess in the river due to the rain than cannot be drained and, which is createing the split over the river bed –flood-- River bed security(rbs) River average Normal elevation A (a1, a2, a3) B (b1, b2, b3) Excess of run-off that does not Create flood River bed margin (rbm) b2 a2 Flood detector 1 Flood detector 2 20km C (c1, c2, c3) Excess of run-off that Create flood FlowA FlowB FlowC c3 (rb) flood=c3+b2 -rbs Flood portion FlowP Split of the flood portion ouside the river bed I think it is the portion of water over the river bed that creates the flood over a period of time related to the time being spent by the Water outside the river bed. This portion need to be detected
VII- Sampling Model of the flood portion E (t) E (t): thickness of the flood portion varying with time River width River height rbs Average water discharge (river flow) H 0 Hmin Hmax
A gauging method applied to the river canal dry river (empty) Maximum water river subsurface (or upper limit of the river canal or river bed or strand for the flood event) Strand river bed or canal height H Gauging equation H = rb - rbs rbs Gauging = reading Reading zone on the rulers rb rbs : river bed security Maximum discharge Acceptable in the river bed before flooding (possible flood or innundation) assumption : outside dry bed season, the River bed is not empty
Flood equations for the river flood=c3+b2 –rbs>0 (equation 0) Equation 1: b2 +c2 > b2 + rbm (flood innundation condition) Equation 2: a2+b2+c2 – rb < 0 ( river flow equation) Flood equation: a2 + b2 + c2 - rb > 0 Equation 3: c3 > rbm = rb – (rbs+a2) (2nd equation for flood condition) b2=rbs (identity condition) Equilibrium equation: a2 + b2 +c2 = rb = rbs + margin + a2 Issue with the flood equations: these equations take into account only the elevations factor of the water River flow, in which is our interes : components (2) (a2, b2, c2 of flows A, B and C) of the various flows (normal A, excess B and excess creating the flood C). Component 1 is for speed, and 3 the flow sections. Such basic flood equations supposed that the speed and/or the sections of the flows are unchanged during the riverflow (total river flow) and the various river flows. Later, we will see that only the dimension of the flow (Q) is conserved. It is the volume Of water per time, which can be conserved (with assumption of a fix regime– false Assumption I suppose depending of the type of flood as flood flow is never fixed but Transitory. I may expect to find the time that would help for this fix regime and to Position the flood indicator during the season and the right place on the ground in order To reduce uncertainties though the detections Adventages: good for a first simulations of the flood detection model. Locations of detectors and going Beyond average measure that could be dangerous in assessing flood water speed and elevations
Lab 8: Assumption on the flood frontline speed
Toward a conclusion A simulation model: transport Travel of a water package That varies with time Start time t= t0, flood occurs Flood portion QF? First flood Initial Flood portion QF = [w (m)] x [y (m) x speed record]
Issue with the flood detection: is it really relevant to differentiate vertical speed (water elevation of the flood/second) and the horizontal speed (the distance travelled on the land by the flood front line? Exploration of the mobile model to simulate flood dy/dt (vertical speed) dx/dth (horizontal speed) dz/dt (lateral speed Flood as a mobile Resp: different casescenario from the flood type classes: 1-flood flows can be very very slow (so slow that one may think there is none, the flood network is not working). This Relative muteness is measlideng as for sur the likelyhood of a flood is high.(emergency evacuation order would fail because of the long lead time for the flood predicted arrival time. 2-Short lead-time: speedy flood with low elevation 3-giant flood/short time responsiveness 4-giant flood long-time to arrive This is related to the flood power P=W/t (robust flood versus non robust flood
This package of water (variation 2.5m X 20km is travelling instantanetly to is new configuration (water package) either new water increases or decreases the total mass of the flood water. In physics it is the flood movement quantity. It help to assess the impact of the flood water during a crash collision on its trip. 20km 0 2.5 meters Line 90°
Assessment of the initial flood flow The first flood flow is different than the first flood portion FT: Flood travel RT: River travel 2 3 1 2 1 TT: Total travel 3 Travel = flow Flow equation 3= 1+2 are supposed To be constant and conservative Flow eq: speed x elevation x width S3V3 – S1V1 = S2V2 With S (section) =W x elevation : x(t) . y(t). z. x y z a (t) b(t) c a(t) . b(t). c C A (t) B(t)
Conservative Equation of flows (Velocity measured during 1 second Section of Flow 1 d(a) d(a): distance travelled for 1 second is the velocity d(b) d(b): total water elevation before flooding dx: quantity loss from flooding (elevation component) dy:quantity loss from flooding (width component) dz: quantity loss from flooding ( dz dx dy Flood flow Total flow (before flood)
Very important assumption: Hypothesis all water flows passing from the river into the flood travel and keep travel on the same axis (da (variation on the river bed goes on dx) dx drx drx=dr-da r a rx dw dw
Obviously it may not be the case. It is why we work with the pressure (pipe representation) Flow before flood Flooding flow Flow after flood Flow 3 Flow 2 Flow 1 P 3 P2 P1 P= F/S
Bernouilli equation ½ µV(i) + m(i) g H(i) + P(i) =cte i=1,2 and 3 Flow equations Fi= X(t) (i) . Speed (i) i=1, 2 and 3 2
flows after the flood (assumption river flow and flood flow speed are the same and section? A(t) – a(t) = x(t) B(t) – b(t) = y(t) C(t) – c(t) = z(t) Flow= section . Speed Flow 1= Flow 2 + Flow 3 Flow 1= w . rbs. A (1) Flow 2= z(t).y(t).z(1) Flow 3= Flow 1-Flow 2 t= second unit
Conclusion: Flood front line speed: average and real –simulation- Horizontal distance 10 km 1hour 1.25m Water elevation Horizontal speed
2 questions: 1- Can we simplify bernouilli for flood 2- Can I validate the model developed without taking into account some assumptions
Lab 6: My own flood laws The flood laws: the transformation of flooding into flood Law 1: The water suppply to the soil surface (water infiltration) Law 2: The soil structure (For details of these laws see slides on water infiltations -Ref: the geographer Joseph Holden- and, the soil struc- Ture –Ref. Dr. John Anthony Allan-)
A sample model for simulated flood (flood stimulation?) Water in excess from The river bed security That create flooding rbs = rb – H (gauging eq.) strand canal river width (w) Flow ( m3 / s )= [w ( m )] x [H ( m )] x [V ( m / s )] (flow equation) X = a Y= 2 X 2 D1 D2 Y=2.5 In my flood prone zone, assumption is a = 0 and (di – dj) = 20 km are fixed distances between the flood Detectors. (i= 1…n, and j =i+1). (i, j) c N x N H 2 O 2 m
a)Lab 9: Flood detection, forecast and accuracy 1-Based on: the flood velocity, the flood elevation, the flood pollution, the road congestion and a disabled water trucking 2-Possible Emergency response: WAER is alternative health and flood plan 3- Flood Modeling with : 1-Basic radar analogy detection 2-Basic math: arithmetic, statistic and geometry for the simulation of flood flows, flood elevations and flood packages 3-Transport system with queueing (waiting line), stock of passengers for fine tuning 4-The fluid Bernouilli law model is the ultimate for flood detection and what are the the adaptation for the indicators 5-Importance of subsurface slopes and soil status in flood elevation and speed formation 6- assumption : flood events are predictable and flood sources are: water inflitration capacity due to the sediment accumulation in the channel river obstructing the flow and creating a flooding condition. The flood occurs, again, due to water infiltration capacity this time on the flood travel land (flood prone regions). --Normally a bank river channel fits its flow -- and vice-versa, a river flow creates the perfect conditions for accomodating its seasonal flooding.– All disasters come from the fact added to the physical geography is a human geography.
d)Lab 2: Radar map detections (without radars) 100km pollution zone From the water feature (1) Flood indicator (speed -cyclometer type- and water elevation – hydrogaph type-- Resulting from gauging detections -New technologies- Flood detector Technology (1) river Distance range circles 100 km Mount Protective Wall River zone Surveillance (sector) North 90° 45° 0° 180° 270° 235° 135° 315° 115° 70° Community village
b)Assumption with 2 flood indicators – the flood velocity and the flood elevation detector spaced 20 km away. Flood detector functions: are equivalent to one man or 2 men carrying field activities 1 and/or 2 : Activity 1 : measurement of time (with a clock/watch) Activity 2 : measurement of the elevation with a ruler Notes: A-The technology –flood detector-- is an automation of both activities. B-One or 2 operators depending of their skills and the difficulties to access to measurements during the flood. C-If the technology is implemented, one should not need labour for gauging (the flow elevation) and measuring the flow velocity.
c)Lab 1: The flood map drawing Not a ready made one -should be drawn before/jointly implemention of a flood detection system. -1° find the true north (map orientation) -2° define obstacles in the landscape that determine the flood corridors -3° draw them on the map: obstacles + corridors -4° position the equipment relatively to the detection goals -5° find entry/exit roads to the flood prone corridor to bring :material and equipment safely -6° power (energy and data cables or wireless) all material and Equipment. -7° Install safety zones for humanes -7° testing and stand-by (operations)
e)Lab 3: River surveillance with the flood detector -Potential flood corridors- Mount 70° Wall 115° 155° 42° Elevation (H), speed (S) and time (T) H and d=ST river Flood detectors Flood penetration inland (outside the river banks) d :Distance range (GPS location) Community village 100° GPS location or RFID mapping Database Computer treament Speed And elevation Water alternatives Flood prone zone
f)Lab 4: Community village protection:event scenario 70° 115° Mount Village zone walls Flood Detectors 100 km 80 km 60 km 40 km 20 km 90° Flood station a river N Flood frontline 80° 100° Flood corridor (70°,115°)
g)Lab 5: Importance of a flood detector map 070 Community Village (30,000 households) 080 090 100 110 120 115 110 100 80 60 40 20 00 32 68 Flood frontline The flood detectors convey information on : -flood speed -flood elevation These knowledge give time for a solution: Water supply, evacuation, Other preparedness for Future risks km degree Flood station H00 -H20 = 20 km N To read the map Corridor 070° – 115°
Benefits brought by Virtualization Lower expenses (physical assets reductions) Business continuity (No redunancy or back-ups ratio 1:1 is avoided) High availability (independence of virtual devices) Fast Installation (Use of a software) Corporate governance (Transparency rules for the central point=security) (Source adaptation AT &T) Hardwares Hypervisor Operating System
Definition: computer device reductions (compactation) to serve primary machines and getting out a biggest bang for the bugs
Interests: Cost, energy and environmental savings of the IT infrastructure
Consolidations of servers and data centers
Operating system works with one type of hardware while virtualization helps to standardize: no worry about hardware or softwares
The virtualization software, firmware or external providers (hypervisors or virtualization layer) maps real and virtual resources
WBS New Technology (NT) RFID Grouping in the virtualization process at Integrated Flood Resource Managament Levels RFID (A2) RFIDs Operating System RFID (A1) RFID (A3) Configuration Management Adaptation :Sample case of organisation with RFID Is in the RFID Journal: the Dolphin Stadium California State, people security
Sample of case study: RFID and security (Dolphin Stadium) Also, AIRBUS -Wireless network able to support POS systems -RFID is competing with WI FI (less equipment) -Adventage of the stadium: possibility to run high bandwidth services: voice mail, data and video tansmisssion, interesting in outdoor transmission and specific environments -illuminating of blackholes and reducing stocks by 50% -- Ref.: Technology Provider/integrator: check points systems, KooBra software; Location Pfaeffikon, 8808, switzerland, Charle Vogele group, largest Clothes retailer in Switerzeland-- (Source internet: RFID Journal
WBS of New Technology (NT) – RFID network Hypervisor Hypervisor Hypervisor Operating System RFID RFID RFID Manufacture Levels: -Assembly bases -Water stations -Buoys -Flood detectors IFM Level
Indicators (output management) Flood data Sustain ability Daily Business Quality Output Alter natives 6 sigma Dow Jones index Sales Inventory Raw material Manpower Quality Flow speed Elevation Hazards Causes Problems Impacts River size Infiltations Softwares 10-20 Too much Too little average Stock
1-Flood indicator for forecasts The flood Indicator is an appropriate technology and its coverage zones would help to scale-up flood detections that cannot be predicted by the software simulation modelings or the radar detections. Either because, there is no data captures: « I have considered there are more unknowns – uncertainties– than flood evidences/certainties or valid predictions due to the fact that the Earth planet is still empty with direct presence of humanes. or if increasing lead-times of predictions are WMO new goals to improve forecasts (Ref.: WMO conference in Costa Rica 2006), it implies additional investment in more data captures in order to scale-up the new coverage zones till today not covered, for instance the sea, swamps…other unhabited areas on Earth or the outer space. » These additional traditonal means are: vessels, aircrafts, sattelites,…weather stations and there are till today not being consider as sustainable.The software modeling successes the data captures and the new investment.
2-Flood indicator for forecasts Today, more factors need to be taken into account to get eventually these flood forecasts right: weather, climate, hydrology, population growth, new urbanism, sustainable development, policies… However, my viewpoint is flood studies are a dependancy of the weather and climate studies. The importance -- various types-- of floods in the economy allow to think that flood forecasting should have an independant status from the weather forecasts. The weather forecats can play an important part in the prediction of the hurricane seasons--, but, flooding conditions can occur in places very loosely connected with the flood place. For, instance the flood in Sudan can are sourced from the rainy season in Ethiopia. Also, the fact that countries are sharing water basing, they order to develop its own methodology. Can flood also develop without the weather elements (?)
3-Flood indicator for forecasts Anyway, being independant does not mean absence of collaboration. Flood hydrology development would always needs the weather forecast and an autonomous research actions. in this case the flood indicator is an appropriate technology, non-administrative, favouring intermediate technolgies, decentralization, use of local materials and assistance to complement existing system (WMO, IHO…(?)) and improvment of non technology flood forecasts
Quality in detecting the water rise (a) They are placed in strategy points (see PBS for flood indicator for flood detector locations). It is very relevant in zones, I previously called ponds or dark zones (holes) where their is no predictions. Dark holes (Swamps, Camargue,… remote places on earth) ? Look out-points and flood Detectors in between the Forecast knowledge points Uncertainty 1 (Horizontal uncertainty) Horizontal line (subsurface)
Quality in detecting the water rise (b) Uncertainty 2 (Vertical uncertainty) Horizontal line (subsurface) Upper horizontal line « Known » prediction zone « Known » prediction zone ? Uncovered, Unknown predictions, Uncertainty zone Solutions Direct indicators. Measurement: Gauging manually or technically using Non traditional technologies
Lab 1: Integrated Flood Resource Management: WAER Project version Delta Sea Flood station Drone Assembly base Flood detectors Warehouse (With water purifiers) Direct transmission RFID transmission Water basin To data centre (Network) Drone At sea Vessel drone (stand-by) Drone before launching Mount Role of the capacity builders Coordination IWRM Data centre
Organisation project Start Initiation Planning Stage Management control Closure Board Work package Mandate
WBS Level 1: Work Breakdown Structures (Division) (Country Administration representatives- IFRM) IWRM A IWRM B IWRM C CEO IFRA1 IFRA2 IFRA3 IFRB1 WAER Integrated Flood Management units Region A: means Flood zone in region A (highly probable flood occurrence in some part of the world at regular interval of time during a season. Predictions through internationl forecast offices (official and forecasting clubs)) IFR A1 means: Integrated Flood Resource Management of the WAER Network using the drones and pocket water purifiers in thregion A, flood unit Location 1. Prediction through WAER network is a tuning of official networks That do not predict flood in the real world. 1 IWRM= 3 regions Depending the size of The IWRM (100km zone as a reference distance) Resource Break down structure Project organization W.B.S. Administrative organization, linked with power, externalities, use of forces to control weather and hydrology events, responsibilities for deliverables….
WBS Level 2: Work Break down structures(Hybrid) People representation-IFRM level) WBS CEO Products MIS System Spate WAER Internet RFID Accounting Land, Real-estate Merchandising Purchasing Personal Self integrated Country or region level of organization Integration of the flood prevention water disability project. Work Break Down Structure (WBS). This organization is facilitator of the Flood mission units (IFRs) as it gives The CEO has more control on the business component and the function let him play A greater role in administrating the assets Supplies
WBS Level 3: Work Break down structure (at Flood Service level) Systems Marketing R & D Manufacturing CEO Computers Components IFMs Products IFMA IFMB IFMC IFMD Support Project Manager Sample of Project Manager avtivity in IFRB, equiping with computers And building a base Finance
Lab 1: Project Flowchart The representative flowchart of the project for flood Forecasting and services --emergency preparedness and assistance are based on the WMO weather and hydrology service. It is an hybrid organization combining the WMO with a model of flood detection, responsiveness, leverage that is proactive and local base (before asking for external assistance). A flood detection mission unit with rapide reponse will help to reduce the lead-times between flood detections (predictions) and the intervention: preparedness-emergency and assistance.
Flow chart focuses on: 1-Understand the business environment of the flood detection activities and ouputs – forecasts--, the couplage of the weather and hydrology services, the importance of the uncovered flood zones --unscaled-up flood areas or prone regions on earth--, which carry the flood uncertainties and the disaster likelihoodness impacted by the flood. These are permanent risks for weather and hydrology service organizers/stakeholders, mainly today through the lens of global warming, raising waters, population growth, modern, urbanism, land planning,… 2- I supposedly emphasis the importance of dark zones/pools/ponds (refering to UN and other UN related organizations) for the increasing numbers of flood and severity situations –where flood controls are difficult if none or no controls at all. 3-The new opportunities of flood development systems offers to the business community new potential markets, a water finance for all by using appropriate and compact solutions that do not disconnect people and their environment. 4-These chart flows are conveying an information for better leveraging the flood forecast organization: the purpose of the WAER project.
Engineering works: rules of engagement? (contracts, rules of law, politics…)
Sharing knowledge: analogous to SIWI platform
Real world of floods
WAER project is rather business orientate, but can ensure public service missions. (WMO is intergovernmental)
Phase 1 :
The possible answer is global (water purifiers+drones) e.g. project starts with a technology business --Rapid Response Unit i.e. like the firefighters in action but for floods. Data are captured through users’ camera mobile phones and internet or forecasts at look-out points. A relevant samples of villages or part of a city could be investigated for the trials.
Phase 2 :
A multibusiness caters customer needs with water adaptation strategies:
« the Spate engineering » for flash floods to complete WAER is the ultimate goal.
While the IFR HelpDesk is a tool of WMO and Global Water Partnerships to link users, but the responses would not be a unique answer (Words of the Director Avinash C. Tyagi: « I do not know yet if it would be a single answer or can take various forms ».
Also, extension of phase 1 to more households than previously.
Phase 3 :
Recruitement and training new staffs, people MIS development. Networking
Basic of productions: limiting steps, off-set activities, throughout time
Speedy water supply chain: no waste, pollution reduction, « low water stocks », production on forecasts
I-Flowcharting for production activities –outputs
Lab 1: Production Flow Chart Non evident Flood Drone Base search Operational drone WAER Stand-by WAER Activate W. Forcast deliverables Evident flood Flood Forecasts >0 Flood evidence Base found Surge Rain Flood forecast Flooding Checks Drone order Sirenes RFID alarms Visit check No forecast No technology Dark ponds Software simulation Radar detection WAER detection Bad Weather Visual forecast Purifier order Drone Preparation order Drone in progress Launcher In progress Drone voucher Purifier voucher Proceed voucher Proceed voucher Launcher ready Drone ready Assembly authorization Operational Drone ready Fired drone Flood Zone identification Identified Drop zone dropped Purifiers Drinking water Activation order Surge water Hurricane Flood Map Flood Zone identified Rain report Hurricane report Preparadness (pre-alert) Flood Forecasts <0 variation WMO forecast WAER forecast Personal warning Visual forecast H2-H1>h Hydrograph Typhoon alert No coverage Forecast Need Preparadness alert Mandate Capacity building No water trucking Radio decodeur For. need analysis Forecast resolution Forecast Meeting A rescue team Options Water surface Base ready Preparadnes starts Test Flood zone access Authorization
Lab 2: Grouping chart simplification Mandate Tests Weather Capacity building Hydrology detection Weather detection Prepa- radness Detection technology Hurricane Surge rain Flash flood No detection Needs Bases Flood Detector Look-out points RFID Prepa radness Activation Production Drops Pole B: Preparedness Long-term Pole D Emergency Pole A: Administration Pole C: Preparedness Medium-term Pole E: Forecast development
Flowcharting the 21 rst century flood issues: – no forecasts, flood scale-up issues and protection systems Pole Administration Pole Emergency Pole Preparedness Medium range Flood Forecast development Pole Preparedness Long Term Financing Mechanism National country External Goal Friendly banks and customers Broadband developement RFID Internet Mergers New capacity building Old Capacity Cuilding BTSA Consulting group Mandate
II-Flowchart for financing -including the Camdessus 2003 report-
Flowchart for the financial assistance Low Earnings (LE) Scenario cases Above (LE) Benefit card No resources Alter native resources Households Individuals citizen visitors Duration/ Time length Over 6 months deliverables Less than 6 months deliverables deliverables deliverables The balance between giving a small loan and alternatives –like a membership cards for free –goods and services- ideally Can be found in many developped economies in down tur crisis. This kind of help could be extended to emerging eco- Nomies dealing with distress flood situations.
Flowchart taking into account the integrated environment For the System Environment Economic Accounting - SEEA – (Ref. UN Statitical Division on internet And the text of: Jinhua, Social Sciences in China, Vo, XXX, Nr 3, August 2009, 5-24, design and discussion of a model for China’s environmental and economic accounting system, financial contribution was made for by the National Social Science Foundation project )
Drone Work Package (Ref.: Christophe Leroux, CEA) WP 1: Project Management WP 2: Specification and design WP 3: Mission control system WP 4: Location and autonomous navigation WP 5: Obstacle avoidance WP 6: Drone prototyping and operation system (Air robot) WP 7: Evidence based concept: 2 prototypes in operation to validate the experimentation in-board camera (3pixels) WORKPACKAGES AS DEFINED BY THE AUTHOR OF THE DRONE PROJECT IN ABOVE REF.
Basic flood management principles: Influences -Influence on the project Sustainability Standard and -The global integration with trade, trade barriers, strategy development… -Function or mission organizations regarding Appartenance to groups - (philosophy, commerce, North, south, east west…marketing strategy) -And pro poor business devlopment, technology transfer and International aids and coordination Influence quality control, norms and globalization Role of regulations across borders, corridors, tax incentives Strategies of development, group pressures, lobbying,…. History is never ending, the beating of times… Business partnerships, governments as a resource Inter mobility, infrastructure, environment…
Measuring results: World Bank Project & Operations, from the comprehensive Development Framework, 1998 Board of Executive Directors Implementation Completion (End of disbursement Period) Information purposes Disbursement period: Pb, lesson learnt Project performance Assessment (6weeks) Field Mission sustainability impacts Bank operation and Evaluation staff Reports Impact eveluation (5 to 8 years) Inspection panel Review claims of Bank Project failures Development activities Bank performance Conformity With Bank CAS Single Project Country Assistance Evaluation (10 studies/y) Sector And thematic Reviews (6 studies/y) Process Reviews (2-3 studies/y)
BUSINESS CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY (CSR)
Environmental news: acquisition of an environmental company Interlab to strenghen its environmental dedicated division Aquagest Medioambiante : analysis of water and air
Certification, Profile: branches in Andulusia, Catalonia and Valencia. Turn over 7 million in 2008.
Also, Taeyoung Entec , an environmental Technology Korean firm acknowledged a €20 milllion investment from AGBAR. This is part of its development process in East Asia (with high economical growth potential)
Portofolio Project Management Water aerator Planting trees Modular scaffolds Water pumping Product Breakdown Structure (P.B.S.) CO2 reduction Water run-offs Sustainability No stagnant water Pollution treatment Water evacuation Drainage Water Cool down Stop germ production Anti smell Senior house Elevation house Assembly base Sub-goals Water stocks Infiltrations
Impact list due to flood flow infiltrations, only -Flood law, compensation and risk -Adaptation strategies, mitigations and urbanism -Contractual agreements, cultural aspects and sociology -Innovation in product development -Job creations linked to the IFRM (web, engineering,…) -Loss of earnings, GDP and country economy –indirectly…- -Death toll increases, water poisoning and diseases (due to contaminated water) -Loss of properties and livelihoods -Multihazards: violence, crimes, looting… -Re-settlement (close to a source of water), evacuation and sheltering -Male asylum seekers and unprepared migrations -Women and children stress increases -Firms unabled to manufacture products and services without water: a farmer, ice maker… -Water pollution, people sanitation and hygiene -Energy: electrical consuption and the water source -Environmental changes -New thinking for technology, design and R&D -Humanitarian actions -Financing flood crisis and insurances -Others: Education, land planning, food security -Governance, poverty cycle, corruption… … .
Project finance Start Of the year End Of the year Money Money Profit Sound financial management Sound business managemnt Pile of assets At this stage there is no distinction between N.G.O.s, Non-Profit- organizations and firms’ finance Asset development Community service Wealth creation
Returns On Assets ROA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 16 Sales N . unit sale price Service Water supply Supplies Drone+Raw Mat Returns Supports Plc Passive returns Ratio 1/6 (ADB) … . Real estates Land price Equipement Raw materials Inventory Waterpurif.stock Assets Cash Profi Trade receivables Customer debt Others Assets: bases…
Accounting Rate of Return (A.R.R.) Average Annual Profit Average investment Theory base and problems with ARR ROA, ROI, NPV approach
Valuation method: project NPV Future Casflows = Initial Investment (1 + r) power N, N > 0 +N is the number of years: 1, 2…n (project range) Depends on the time horizon line of the investment +The rate (r): in the water sector 10% to 20% (banking rate) IDA offers grant without interest rate +The higher the hurdle rate for the project and the better it is for the investors + Comparing 2 NPVs during a same time horizon line (project range) NPV (Water trucking) – NPV (Water purifier drops) > 0
Starting point for the project finance and how it serves the risk analysis What I want to show from my feelings and based on the analysis: the project is viable and which are these conditions if the business is to survive. 1°My feeling is water trucking is a nice way to deliver water during a flood « if the level of water is sufficiently low to allow tuck traffics on the innundated roads »(Still I will have to have a look at the distance trip between the source of water supplying the trucks and the delivery place. What is the proportion of cost incurred on the whole water service) Problem identifications : 1a) Which level of water prevent the traffic and/or how to choose eventually the good truck to reverse the truck charge during flood and also to satisfy the sustainable development principle—more energies and less pollutions-- 1b) Also, could I anticipate these water level values through the forecast (prediction) before any moves for the water supply with drones. This would help to make an early choices for a water trucking alternatives –in the case the floodwater rises dangerously, and disable the water trucking. What is the risk for a water system to deliver water from aircraft drops of pocket water purifier?What are these risks?
Productivity analysis of more than one alternative to water droning Bottled water Water droning Tap water Water trucking Water solution comparative adventage analysis Harvesting water
Comparing 2 water systems System 1 (NPV 1) System 2 (NPV2) Gain My viewpoint is sustainability Is about efficiency of water systems Profit (gain) is an indicator of sustainable development No profit Does not mean The system is sustainable Is it sustainable, In the way of the Brundtland report? Water trucking Water droning
Estimation 1 : Numbers or fraction of 1.5 litres in 10000 litres : 3,333.33 –or the number of persons able to drink for one day with water trucking or water purifier truck equivalent per one day. Water trucking 10,000 litres per truck 2 oz pocket water Purifier 1.5 litre/day Humane water consumption 1.5 litre/day 1 water purifier per person per day 3,333.33 people water purifiers per day (people for one day) Conclusion : 1 water trucking is equivalent to 3,333- 2 oz Pocket Water purifiers (in one day). Now if an emergency service wants to supply fresh water for 3,333 people. It would have to drop an equal amount of water purifiers e.g. 3,333.33 the same day.
Estimation 2 : If a pocket water purifier lasts 3 months, how many water purifiers are needed per equivalent for one truck volume of water per one day. +A 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier delivers during its life time –3 months– 135 litres of water (3 months x 30 days x 1.5 litre per day) The number of fractions of 135 litres in a water trucking with a water capacity of 10,000 litres are: 74 (10,000 water litres/ 135) It is also, the total of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers for 3 months for a community Survival with 74 member Conclusion: 10,000 litres of water, which is the delivery of one truck in a day can help a community of 74 persons at risk of flood to survive 3 months (assumption of water consumption of 1.5 litres per day). It is the equivalent of water. Capacity truck per day and 74 people drinking the same amount of water for 3 months: X 74=k 3(Y), K is a natural number with one truck capacity equivalent to 10,000 litres. The index 3 means for 3 months and 74equals 74 people
Issues: where is the balancing act between water trucking and water droning Issues Where is the balance What is the right proportion For the emergency efficiency? 1 day 10,000 litres 1 truck 3.333,33 people 3.333,33 purifiers 90 days 135 litres Per person 74 people 74 purifiers
Treatment of the equation X (74) = K (3) (Y) Y (10000 litres per truck) X grouping of 74 people per drone 1 1 2 2 3 3 Curve 1:1 1drone =1 truck for 1 truck Per day with 10000 you can supply 3333.33 person 1:1 (1, 10000, 3333.33 1 drone, 74 person, 3 months, 135 individuals) Curve 1:3 drone/truck= 1/3 74p, 3 month, 135 l. People need more water Curve 2:1 Drone/truck=2
New ratio table Water needs: 1.5 litre/day truck drone 10000 1
2 oz Pocket water Purifier: 55g. 100 x 55g = 5500g=5.5kg
Assumption : How many drones are needed for the emergency every 3 months (Life time of a water purifier) 100 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers/drone Summary Truck capacity:10,000 litre 3333 people/day 74 people with one water purifier for 3 month Time (month) People 1.5 litre/person 50 pax. 1 month 50 1 1 drone 60 persons (40 Pocket Water Purifiers For security
Water alternative productivity and debate 74 persons = 135 litres = 3 months= 90 days 8.22 persons per day 2.74 per 8 hours 74 people per day Average: 3 people/hour 1 person every 20 minutes 1person=60 kg 3kg/minute 3,333 people= 1days = 1.5 litres 1,111 people per 8 hours 3,333 people per 24 hours Average:138 people/hour 46 persons per 20 minutes 78 kg /minute Water droning Water trucking Deliver quickly a great quantity of water for a cheap price but it is not working during a flood Do not deliver a lot of water but can deliver during worst weather conditions Obstacle 2: Good with volumes of activity e.g.. intersting point But no delivery During a severe flood Obstacle 1: The risk is it can do it during a flood But is it worth investing in this project taking into account is low Volume of delivery
Theory of fresh water supply productivity during flood (Time: in 20 minutes) In 2 people unit X X X X X X X X X X Water delivery from a drone X Water delivery By a truck Emergency Response Productivity Curve Deliver Volume but flood disabled Love floods but deliver little 20 minutes 1 people Slope: 1 person/20’ Slope 46 persons/20’ 46 (1hour=60’ ) X Trucking: 138 p./h Droning: 3 p./h
Balancing act between water trucking and water droning 46 p. 1 p . Water trucking Water droning ? Issues: Which alternative is the best? How to find it ? 20 minute units 1p: 1 person
Lessons learnt from the Productivity analysis I-Productivity analysis Competitors of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier drops from aircrafts to supply fresh water i.e. tap water, water trucking have a comparative advantage outside the flood zone due to the discounted prices of the litre of water: =>tap water: US 0.56 cts/litre, =>water trucking: US 0.86 cts/litre, =>water purifier: US 7.69 cts =>and bottled water: US 38.45 cts/litre. =>harvesting water : cost of infrastructures to protect water But during a flood experience supplying fresh water with taps and trucks are cancelled and bottled waters are remaining too expensive. --It is sending mixte signal for an air drop delivery instead of doing nothing or lately (or plastic bottled waters)-- The only alternative is water droning still cheaper than bottled water (I suppose if it has not been used yet it because it is innovative and the humanitarian aspects of drone are still under R & D and the little Gain, also. To reverse the charge on water droning would be to consider, it is a health plan (and not a pure business or add more Corporate Social Responsibility)—these are valid reasons. Physically, the water rescue is either no alternatives or the 2 oz pocket water purifier drops from aircrafts to supply safe water. Drones can flight during a hurricane.
Equipment total costs (Tc) : Fixed costs (Fc)* +Variable costs (Vc) Platform Civilian flood zone Protective Area Base 2oz Pocket Water Purifier Water supply system Vectors: drones with launchers -on a soil -on a boat -on a truck Supports Shopping only Variable costs
Cost distinctions Remark 1 : (*) As long as the number N (the number of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier) is not execessive and Do not necessite an additional base to drop the excess of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers, the base and all infrastructures are consider as fixed costs for and during the incurred emergency mission. These costs incurred mainly during the preparedness and are related again to infrastructures, vectors and personal in salaries. The only parameter, which varied is the number of flood water sufferer equals to n (n is also equalled to N: assumption one water purifier per household The flood disaster database with number of household members and total population in the flood zone or density population in the inundated area is relevant to know the exact absolute value of water purifier to be dropped, plus an additional security number in order to reach a saturation capability e.g. all flood sufferers should be able to have access to one water purifier or more – specifically, the children and women--
Cost distinctions and relevant costs Remark2 : I think it is not necessary to assess them accurately now for the purpose of the Project. At this stage a rough guide should be to consider water droning fixed cost lower than water trucking fixed costs (Assumption on fixed costs (Fc)) Anyway, there is no alternative to failure of water trucking during a flood except than airdrop survival means and also the fact that a permanent platform in the assisted country seems cheaper than a truck or car carrying the drone launcher and equipment, at large it should not exceed the cost of a truck (in the case the drone launcher is carried by a vehicle). The drone launcher is preferable to be mobile – carried with vectors like a truck or a boat– as the likelyhood of flood can be difficult to detect in place and time. The car carrying the drone launcher goed beyond the mobility that is attached To the flood uncertainty (analogy with flood fighters or firefigters of the local fire station. Also, the cost of a unique item that serves once is relevant to the 1rst project operation and do not incurred Later in any new development for future emergency even if the same item is used. Once paid, they are paid once.
Assumption: n*=1000, Cost of 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier= $10, => Revenues = $10,000 $10 $2 $6 $2 Raw materials Manpower Profit Fixed Costs (**) (*) n: number of people likely to suffer of fresh water supply shortage due to flood **Variable cost related to (n): the number of people at risk of flood. For a water purifier unit: Manpower and raw material are fixed. If (n) starts to increase importantly the cost of the water purifier remains the same
The « false » break-even curve for the emergency Fixed costs N: water purifier units BEP=0 **** N Sale unit= N x var cost per unit + Fixed cost N= Fc/[sale unit – vc] Fc (Revenues(5*)) N=n=1000*** K= unit price Sales=kN +Fc Sales=10 n +Fc (***) Assumption 1 individual per household n=N (****In the emergency situation,the break-even point, BEP = 0 $ (5*): Here, I have supposed that the only variable is the number of persons (n=N). The revenues earned from the emergency situation is in fact a cost to the community. What is the reason for profit? $2 Vc (N)
Few considerations on the break-even points In principle, the real emergency should be able to deliver water, as soon as it has 1 customer, BEP =1, continuous variable: 0-1. The revenue equation is a strait line – only function of the number of flood sufferers – this value indeed indicates that the gap between profit and loss can be small and even smaller if (n): the number of people at risk of flood is small. Is it worth investing? Importance of the database and reporting to assess exactly the flood context and exact numbers of flood sufferers. Roles of household MIS, mobile phone, internet, flood detectors and the RFID transmittance,…for the real time flood event captures Forecasting and rapid response units of water purifier drops from small aircrafts.
Few considerations from the cost analysis Remarks: Some humanitarian actions are not validated because of these small numbers. Database starts with an important number of sufferers. It is important to reorganize world databases and improve the captures of data to describe exactly what happens during a flood in details: quality and quantity and not approximatetly. Also, the hydrology service should be autonomous from the weather service.
The break-even curve: the real one Fixed cost Total cost curve Variable cost Revenue curve Volume of activity $ 0 B.E.P. b Loss zone Profit zone
Break even point Here, BEP (b) is different than zero because of the relevant costs to get the revenue. I had opted firstly to temove them (the false break-even curve) for the debate as normally drones and water purifiers are considered to be sustainable alternatives and if infrastructures are to be built, in principle their small sizes reduce cost of investment. But is it worth investing for a profit –outside the humanitarian action ? One difference would remain in the operating costs: raw materials and labors. As the project develop the use of local materials and resources would be a priority. Also, in the case of drone launchers attached on a truck to give more mobility to the emergency rescue through this means – the flood occurence carries uncertaintie--, it is ultimately a real challenge to compare water droning based truck with water trucking and the winner. Both systems are vectors by trucks and the only parameters to differentiate the quality of alternatives would be (H-h) the water elevation over the truck water tolerance to flood elevation (h) and/or n: the number of people at risk and a reasonable capacity e.g. not enough building that would be worth investing into a drone project for the purpose of the humanitarian action --n also equals N: number of water purifiers. In this case the drone could be implemented with a basic base of assets (infrastructures) With the use of local resources and materials –to reduce costs even more.
Distinction between Break Even Curves The difference with the false curve is that I have considered only the purchase of 2 oz pocket water purifier was a relevant cost. Other costs like the preparedness: capacity building, acces base negotiation deals, costs of infrastructures: platforms, the network, the drone purchase occured once and are reused during several emergencies (Projects). Therefore there are just relevant once and not for future Flood event assistnce projects in the same country.. The BEP Occurs as soon as there is a flood and there is no minimum requirement for household numbers. If 1 person is requiring for help: BEP=0 a volume of activity for which Total cost equals total revenue. In fact this is fictious as the first profit is $2 Which is the profit revenue, which is in the 1rts water purifier sold (False break even curve). The real Break Even Curve considers various approximations: the cost of staffs, costs of contengcies, fuels….small costs. In this case the BEP is different that the « 0 » value All these approximations could be received in kind by assisted countries. In that case the False Break Even curve would be with an apparent simplicity linked with the fact that Total cost would be equals to revenue if $2 profit on each 2 oz pocket water purifier is reused for: training, flood development, other contingencies or miscellineous. This is by definition what makes the difference between a NGO and Non for profit organizations and a multinational. Today, with the introduction of the Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), global firms have an awarness about their responsibilities toward the communities they are serving.
$2 Raw materials N= numbers of product deliver $2 (N) Variable cost $2 $6 Labour $6 (N) Fixed cost Profit ? Water supply service Contingencies Risks Development Training Costs and profit analysis
Water trucking high profile with various reserves
Water trucking break even points and load factors
High profile when H<h, because of the Volume of Activity dealt during the water rescue
46 persons/20’. The price of water is low – US 0.86 cts (excluding transport, oil, maintenance, driver salaries…).
So benefits come from the volume, but bying a truck, paying for the drivers and transporting water from long distances in perillous countries can peak up costs easily. At the end, there are no benefit and the revenues are low (and operations risky ). Is it worth investing in water tucking with all the volume advantages, but also with adversitie?
High number of people at risk for emergency starts –in the database dealing with number of households
The flood elevation: H<h (can the truck deliver during the flood)
The distance to carry the water from sources to the flood zone
The use of oil or diesel as propelant is not sustainable
Costs of maintenance, new trucks, driver wages…
Risks:looting the truck, killing the rescuers, wheather conditions
Conclusion : Prices can escalate and prevent the rescuer to help.
One Positive point for water trucking (sus the volume)
The International community knows the return of such Humanitarian action (return on investment, ROI) And there is no surprise when the flood is low (H<h), there is a real benefit because of the volume 10,000 water litres for 3,333.33 people in one day or 74 people for 3 months
Water droning low profile but can deliver in worst conditions. Why ? Condition 1 : water trucking disability (as indicator) H (Flood water elevation) - h (elevation of the truck)>0 -assumption for the truck: value for h=50cm (small trucks) to 1 m (high elevated trucks) => H > 0.5 to 1m (flood elevation) . H – h >0 water droning can go (indicator 1) Condition 2 : water droning to be equivalent to water trucking during a flood should be able to deliver for 74 persons X 135 litres of water for 3 months. (which is equivalent of 1 truck per day with capacity of 10000 litres.) Note: if the truck was enabling during the flood, such volume of water per truck would allow 3,333.33 people to drink 1.5 liter of water per day. Water trucking is a volume activity, if working. Condition 3 : is it worth investing in such Water droning project. How much it would cost In infrastructure to implement. From now I have the Feeling that water droning should be reserved to special types of flood (with risk adverse communities, Communities with a good habitat –senior houses that do not crumble with the flood). Condition 4 (last) as establishing water droning On a permanent basis and an additional alternative to Water trucking outside important flood conditions, When H-h<0 need to makes some more break even Analysis regarding, investment, margin and security
Lesson learnt from the Risk analysis Water droning Water trucking $ How to make it really profitable Iceberg investment cost of infrastructures are unseen still not Important and it makes water Droning an efficient sustainable Alternative to water trucking and Others (explanation see following slides) Low break-even BEP =0-1 High break even Load factor Load factor Costs than can be invisible or reduce to a strict minimum Profit is a multiple of n: people BEP level revenues Profit BEP High break-even Point, it should not be profitable but truck are carrying volume of activities, therefore a high return on the operation 2 different Strategies? Low break even It should be profitable If there is a high number Of people at risk and water Trucking is disabled Flood ? n H-h Choice Balance Equation
Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (1) II-Break Even (Curve) analysis The delivery of safe water from an aircraft is not a risky experience . It is not a risky experience at condition to have a small load factor, which is the case with minimalistical infrastructure scenario assumptions. Tiny load factors can be significant in achieving the mission success by reducing the total cost for initial investment AND balancing water droning for small size communities. In theory, profit –the small earning- would be achieved by housholds numbers willing to use the service for their water needs. If numbers drop to 0. No profit is made and the company incurred no cost as long we stay within the above condition.
Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (2) The delivery of safe water from an aircraft is a risky experience . 2 extremes : a)Lots of investment for a small community: The preparadness investment and fixed costs attached to drone launchers (base, truck, boat..) can be permanent (highest risky assumption in the case of small commmunities is not the favoured solution). Explorations of various avenues: -Way to think about flood rescues by analogy with the firefighter brigade station in a civilian flood community Service –volunteering more or less paid contributions ? -Flood rescue relying entirely on private firms (and not international assistance) where the profit is not Garanteed. What will be these Private frm structures ? -Mix of hybrid organizations best suiting the community in flood prone zones (target of flood uncertainties). A real match between flood uncertainties and catering a flood answer –in the instant emergency. -New roles of NGOs, less governmental dependant and more privately orientate –with more or less government participation –a kind of flood democracy. Note: it is different that the consensus building at inter governmental level to bring the flood assistance to communities?
Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (3) b) Is it worth investing for a larger community where flood occurrences are well studied ? In this case, solutions have been brought by national governments in charge of the civilian protection in terms of disaster planning, the studies of the disasters and preventing mitigating the occurence, educating people, insurance policies, flood engineering works, people re-location, building flood architectures, hedge funding, also and etc. – All these precautionary measures belongs to the framework of the flood adaptation and mitigations of the UN Integrated Water/Flood Resource-IWRM/IFM) management policies and tools. Considering the case, one wonder how responsive can be the flood community to such package of deals and how peacemeal, it is still remaining ? Is it the role of the System Environmental Economical Accounting to Answer –SEEA- ?
Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (4) New exploration and how to answer? Water droning choice compare to other alternatives –if existing. -I suspect obstacles can be cheaper than the investment for trucks and/or other alternatives ). Also, NPV /rate of return for the project may not reach investor hurdle rate (of returns) but still, if the flood does not materialize these investment may not be lost and may not be difficult to bail out (Even if low). -After all, these ivestment are not so heavy: a drone cost $30 and a Pocket water purifier $10. Is it worth taking risk for a very little return (a part from taking risk to save people)? This answer is in the Humanitarian action, the faifth the world in one, the trust in the community of destiny, the environmental pressure of globalization- Would this had happened if the today globalization did not existed? I think, this question leaves a room for another debating about past courses of human history –energy history, migration history, reasons for Wars, technological choices, humans resitance to stress…and their goodness?
Lessons learnt from the Break-even analysis (5)
The only reasons to be engaged in a water droning system would be :
the change in heart of organization for flood sufferers,
Development of broadband technologies in mission organization (but not leaving room for cahotic
networks. A bit of coordination would be an added value, thus avoiding the formal/paper organization
with conflicting rules and a hierarchical/functional organization to cut costs –but is it really cutting cost
when salvation army of flood forecaster and forecast at the scale of the world, always need more
spending for materials and people. –How to insure that there is a goog coordination? Perhaps, the
equilibrium is a « de facto » balancing act due to the reality. Is it good to just let it running to pave
a way for flood sufferers. Tough job, also in:
improving the legislations,
flood civilians themselves like the idea of pocket water purifier drops from drone
instead of drinking contaminated water,
gouvernment themselves take in charge humanitarian drone projects,
interesting parties could be also philantropic organizations, and bankers for poor people.
Another way to lever the water droning is to reduce costs of infrastructures, increase the CSR in global
firms and also create a flood civilian society that go beyond what is doing firebrigade station or
intergovernmental organization. Like improvment of the democracy and governance.
Sales 10 10 People 6 6 Raw materials 2 2 Fixed costs 0 0