2 feed black box to forecast hazard Analysis Critical Control Points
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2 feed black box to forecast hazard Analysis Critical Control Points

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The 2 double feeds black box is a modelling with 2 variables (human geography, physical geography) of the risk encountered. I have assumed for the presentation these risk were irrationalbehaviors. ...

The 2 double feeds black box is a modelling with 2 variables (human geography, physical geography) of the risk encountered. I have assumed for the presentation these risk were irrationalbehaviors. have presnted the with a mtrix risk portofolio and a combineee

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2 feed black box to forecast hazard Analysis Critical Control Points Presentation Transcript

  • 1. GEO-HEALTH JOB2 FEED BLACK BOX TO FORECAST HAZARD ANALYSIS CRITICAL CONTROL POINTS Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013
  • 2. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points A FORECAST METHOD Curves of Disaster forecast reconciled with the organization environment to cope with tenses and the stress (psycological, brunts i.e wellbings,...assets, lives, properties of the hazardous event -tsunamy, earthquake,...) Number of affected people How, when, Yes we where, can ! who, forecast what,... Can we make Recovery x ? it ? indicator real No we cannot ! Time line T (event) T? ΔT : recovery leadtime Graphs and the representation of the gap/risk Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013 © GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 3. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points BRUNTS (AFFECTION OR RECOVERIES) AND JOBS (LOSSES) DURING A DISASTER Before the crisis During the crisis After the crisis Gross Domestic DISASTER Product (GDP) Real GDP GDP max x People affected or Average Gross GDP recovering Domestic Or deads Product GDP Maximum Maximum GDP job losses GDP production production Less GDP production GDP min JOB x Job Affectation Job changes, less jobs, returning and leveling humanitaire jobs to normal JAN. FEB . MAR. APR. MAY JUN. JUI. DEC. Calendar (timeline) HURRICANE SEASON IN USA (FLORIDA-GULF COAST) Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013 © GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 4. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points INDICATORS Indicators Survivor progress 100 0 Survivor numbers Method Probability important Brunts (Physical deterministic method 100 affectation) 0 A F F uncertainty E weak C 0 ---- T Scale of the recovery E D ++++ Recovery (R) 100 Maxi- Psychological illness 0 100 Recovery (R) Risk source (losses of lives, losses of their family members, livelyhood and properties- insurance cannot return the wellbeing of survivors (as these are material assets- while survivors have lossed their psychological assets) Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, © GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013
  • 5. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points BRUNTS (AFFECTION OR RECOVERIES) AND JOBS (LOSSES) DURING A DISASTER PROCESS 1 PROCESS 1 PROCESS 2 PROCESS 2 DATA INPUTS OUTPUTS 1- VARIABLES (A,R) COST 2- ASSESSMENT Parameters (*) GDP 3 STATUS Parameters (*) Parameters (*) (spatial, time) Parameters (*) RESOURCES (spatial, time) (Survivors...) (M,m,m) (Survivors...) ALLOCATIONS For any variables ASSISTANCE (parameters) …. 3- uncertainties Uncertainties (δ) (δ) (*) Encyclopedia of Geography: geography risk = physical geography + human geography Interdisciplinry CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Boagota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013 © GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 6. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points L E V E L S O F R I S K S (AND RISK EQUIPROBABILITY) Lucky survivors, No they have been able recovery/ Survivor 50% recovery Survivors 100% to recover mentally 0% and physically, but Affected they have no A Affected by People partially People fully recovered Survivors houses, no food, tsunami recovered (but, no physical 33,33% (without assets livelyhood F (survivor with brunts (but, no physical assets or assets or brunts) F livelyhood) livelyhood) and properties E People lives Affected by People partially 50% (Brunts) C affected people (Physical recovery tsunami (survivor with recovered (but, no physical Brunts T No mental recovery brunts assets or livelyhood) 33,33% Affected E People never People lives Affected by Survivors affected people D recovered, (life physical and (mental recovery No physical tsunami (survivor with 33,33% (100% With Psychological brunts brunts- full recovery damages) burnts) Most Affected Between survivors 33,33% 33,33% 33,33% of the tsunami first instant R E C O V E R Y (Survivors) Equipro-probability (P) for each/every scenario cases of survival (recovery) with various brunts/affectations case ~ P = 1/9 ≈ 0.11= 11,11.% Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 7. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points RISK MATRIX PORTOFOLIO A REGION A3 A3 R1 A3 R2 A3 R3 A2 A1 R2 A2 R1 A2 R3 Risk A2 R1 class A SITE A1 A1 R1 A1 R2 A1 R3 R1 R2 R3 Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 8. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points AFFECTATION TABLE (DUAL GRAVITY TABLE 50% SURVIVORS-50% NTO SURVIVORS) People lives (A) affected People by physical affected likely SURVIVORS brunts To not survive MORE THAN Psychological 50% illnesses (Sufferers) -People less affected People lives And Survivors NOT SURVIVING affected Recovering- with brunts UNDER Physically psychological 50% brunts (Sufferers) -People more affected People lives and affected not recovering- psychological brunts Intangibles-mental illness, psychological distress (R) Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013 © GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 9. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points RISK PORTOFOLIO MATRIX WITH A SCENARIO RISK CLASSES DETERMINISTIC PROBABLISTIC Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 10. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points HYBRID ORGANIZATIONS Keys -codes- Weight of an organization 1 ½½ ¼¼¼¼ b: blue g: grey B: black P+p = 1 (99.99%) ≈100%A1 R2 A1 R1 A2 R1 A3 R1 A2 R2 A1 R3 A2 R3 A3 R3 A3 R2 b g b b g b g g B g g B B g B g b b b g b g g B g B g B B g Probability p Probability P Trend: not survivors Trend: survivors Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013 © GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 11. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points RESOURCE PLANNING DATA IN DATA OUT 3 = not surviving CRISIS DISASTER 0-25% NORMAL (ASSUMED) 2= likely to survive STARTS STARTS REFERENCE 25%-50% people survived 3= 50% -100% survivors 3 2 1 UNCERTAINTIES + 50% Time 0 T1 T2 T3 T4 T5 T6 EXPERIENCE (REAL) REFERENCE Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013 © GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 12. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points QUESTIONS / IMPROVMENT actions Can we make it better means ? expectations Direct road Indirect road map/action map/action Can we reduce..... Can we save.... Can we reduce the risk Can we save people lives Can we increase people resilience Can we protect their assets Can we prevent the risk occurrence Can we protect their Can we adapt the environment to livelihoods hazards Can we protect their Can we manage hazards properties …... …. Results/outputs = Conciliation between actions and expectations need to be materialized- if not => there will be a gap or a failure causing increasing risks Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO
  • 13. 2 feed black box to forecast hazard analysis critical control points THANK YOU! GEORGES RADJOU Business Innovation Research Development BIRD gsradjou@outlook.com Www.facebook.com/gsradjou Www.slideshare.net/gsradjou Interdisciplinary CODATA Conference CEGeoIC, Bogota, Colombia, February 6- 8, 2013 – CEGeoIC_2013© GS RADJOU, BIRD CEO