Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
2013 UTTARAKHAND DISASTER IN HIMALAYA AND THE GIANT FLOOD IN MOUNTAIN
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

2013 UTTARAKHAND DISASTER IN HIMALAYA AND THE GIANT FLOOD IN MOUNTAIN

641

Published on

What has caused the return of the water hazard is unknwon- What is special is that unlikely events can create catastrophic losses and vulnerabilities with the poor segment of the communities. Issue is …

What has caused the return of the water hazard is unknwon- What is special is that unlikely events can create catastrophic losses and vulnerabilities with the poor segment of the communities. Issue is to differentiate direct causes and indirect causes of risk. So, one can focus on the real causes in order to prevent negative impacts of the risks, when it wil return a next time. In absence of data or statistical records, it is hardship to predict when the flood in mountain will be back. So, best is to prepare new options and scenario based on modelings. I has been said, it was God event and also people or the engieering works, urbanisms, pilgrims, aged techonologies. all these searches for risks sources are confudig with the risk impacts (direct or secundary). The real concern, according to me is people. Uttarakhand was a disaster made by men. Some, experts started to see the truth and root causes of the disaster- I believe, before the next occurence, they will take the opportunity to re-organize Uttarakhand urbanism and geography according to the numbers and sizes of the villages and municiplaities in relations with these debris and sediments zones aswell as carbages in link to the river channels and flows, so that when there is monsoon or heavy rais i Himalaya, river can expend in the river beds in the valley, which is quite a normal weahter phenomenum, but mainly if there is a municipality service to control the waste and the waste management services, to prevent waste and carbages accumulation, which could create artificial water reservoirs mountains. If no water drainage of the reservoirs is not made, the risk is like dam rupture, under the water elevation, the water pressures and tenses on the debris, garbages, sediments that are components of the reservoirs walls will reached a dangerous limit before the reservoir rupture. Then Uttarhakand gentle river flow can become a real monster.

Published in: Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
641
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. MODELING THE UTTAKAHRAND FLOOD- TUSNAMI IN HIMALAYA MOUNTAIN-DISASTER IN UTTHARAKHAND Mountain lake reservoir modeling Georges Radjou CEO MBA DUPEBH Georges.radjou@yahoo.com (Business Innovation Research Development - BIRD)
  • 2. Risk concept Source(s) Issue (s) Impact (s)
  • 3. AS I HAVE ASSUMED WITH THE TEAM (UNESCO, INDIAN EXPERTS AND EMMA -EXPERT IN PREDICTIVE MODELING- THE ROOT CAUSES (SOURCES OF RISKS) OF THE DISASTER IS TEMPORARY WATER ACCUMALATION IN ARTIFICIAL RESERVOIR FOLLOWED BY THE RESERVOIR WALL RUPTURES HAVE IMPACTED (PRIMARILY AND SECUNDARY IMPACTS) ON THE COMMUNITY LIFE, LIVELIHOODS AND PROPERTIES, AS WELL AS THE WELL-BEING ; THE RESERVOIR RUPTURES (WHICH WAS THE RISK ISSUE) WHEN THE RESERVOIR MATERIALS (RESERVOIR WATER + SEDIMENTS + RESERVOIR WALLS (THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES OR DEBRIS AND SEDIMENTS...) ? SOIL SURFACES AND SUB-SOIL I.E SOIL UNDERGROUND AND THE SHALLOW LAYERD OF AQUIFERS). DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT BIRD CEO Source ; author
  • 4. I think the most appropriate and adapted technology model to mimic / reproduce/model wiith the assumptions recoded on the Flood tsunami experience from conversation and narrative with / of risk masters (UNESCO hydrology experts, Emma hydraulic prediction expert, India experts on the tsunamin disaster) and the information given by the media the Himalaya water, is according to me, and the nature and the scale of reservoir lake in mountain ruptures that created that let to the disaster without possibilities for rescuers to save lives, assets, livlihoods and propertie IT IS A WASTE WATER PUMPING MACHINE Water out Water in SOURCE OF RISKS Water reservoir accumulate d in the Himalaya Mts TEMPORARY LAKES WITH HEAVY RAINS, THE MOUNTAIN MATERIALS COMPOSING THE RESERVOIR REACHED A CRITICAL RUPTURE POINT AND THE CAUSES OF LANDSLIDES AND THE TSUNAMI IN MOUNTAINS THAT FLOW IN THE VALLEYS Fig. 1: PROJECT GLOBAL ARCHITECTURE AND BUSINESS MODEL BUSINESS MODEL ANALOGY TO A WASTE WATER PUMP MACHINE MANUAL HAND Pump Body Waste water pumped in storage Business case Modeling DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT BIRD CEO Source; author
  • 5. Q -water flows (M³ /second) Surface water reservoir Bottom H Without sediment and debris the water is clean, then the pump can treat a higher volume of water (H) Water out Pump performance (W) linked to H → W = W(H) Fig 1a : Uncertainty on Knowledge of the nature of soil structures, and sediments accumulatioon could create a landslide The waste water pump modeling is interesting, because if the stakeholder knew that temporary lakes during the monsoon could create a flood in mountains, they could have prevented it by using pumps to drain the water formation (H) in the artificial lakes, so that the reservoir materials can resist to the water tenses on the reservoir wallls (soil and mountain slopes)-reservoir bottom. Solution to people displacment waspumping water or preventing the water accumulation by avoiding water stock reaching a critical levels (H), also the pump performance limit. With sediment the pump performance is reduced as the (power of the pump is concserve)- H- T = e Excess of water, which is stagnant i.e. and if not drained is about to reach a critical mass leading to tenses over the reservoir materials and risk of ruptures, leading to a flood in the valley- impacting on peoples securities and safeties T Fig. 1: Uncertainty on the role of sediments- sediment volume Influencing the water elevation and the reservoir peak of discharge or the reservoir rupture, if no drainage action is providing either by preventing sediment accumulation or maintaining the reservoir drainage to avoid the criticals With reservoir ruptures sources Of flood in the valleys and tsunami in mountains with landslides DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Sediments BIRD CEO Source; author
  • 6. What are the risks created by the sediments (in case of a large land surface is covered -it is always more often the case in flood plain in valleys are the slopes of the mountains are sharper than on flat surfaces- 10%Flood Good- Flood farming Houshold living area h Valley slopes Flat land slopes (Modeling the Flood Plains) Flood plain maximal 10% 90% 90% Flat land with a small slope Valley land with a high slope Fig 3 : uncertainty on valley slopes Flood division at WMO said, if a land is 10% covered with sediment, it is good for flood farming But, if over 40% of the country land surface is covered by the flood waters during the inundation, it will be a disaster In montain valleys slopes are rarely small, therefore expect a minor flood for a flat land to be a giant flood or tsunami DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT BIRD CEO Source; author
  • 7. END (part 1) Georges RADJOU BUSINESS INNOVATION RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT 27 Ter Bld Saint Martin, 75 003 PARIS Tel. 01 44 59 64 90
  • 8. DISASTER RISK ASSESSMENT AND ANALYSIS Model used is mimic tha valley (Peoples, Systems and organizations) The rivers (water river basin where the floods occurrred) Mainstreeam going to the lower lewer part of the valley (water out) Individual Vallay river drainage Z Total size of the valley water basin where the flood the monsoon ePhysical elements Urbanism Roads, infrastrucutre industrialization Dry feet zone Zo > Z= e Flow in (Monsoon water in from the rain) Fig. 4: Uncertainty on Dry feet zones i.e. urbanism, roads and infrastructures, aged technologies, Over population (Pligrims), pollutions and lack of maintenance of the valley and lack of land planning and management, risk mapping... DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Source; author BIRD CEO Sediments and the reservoir are creating temporary water buffers
  • 9. Fig. 5 : Recommendation Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a disaster resilience program. NAME OF CITY SEDIMENT MONITORI NG RESERVOIR FILL START DATE OF RUPTURE MAINTENANE City X City Y City Z DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Source; author BIRD CEO
  • 10. Fig. 5 : Recommendation Stakeholders should moniitor quality of valleys and invest in the mainteance of valleys to avoid flood in mountains. The critical mass for the infrastructures are also paramountin planning a disaster resilience program. NAME OF CITY SEDIMENT MONITORI NG RESERVOIR FILL START DATE OF RUPTURE MAINTENANE City X City Y City Z DAVOS 2014 RISK MANGMENT PROJECT Source; author BIRD CEO

×