09082010 global warming and tree planting

628 views
539 views

Published on

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
628
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
6
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

09082010 global warming and tree planting

  1. 1. From Global Warming and Water Management (3 R): Water Retention, Recharge and Reuse to crisis recovery [email_address]
  2. 2. SAMPLE OF CRISIS / WORLD TEMPERATURE CONTROL (global warming and climate change) 1° changes the world
  3. 3. Data : Δθ (observed) = 0.74 °C (between 1906 and 2005) 1.1°C <Δθ (estimated) < 6. 4 °C (temperature increase expected by 2100) Source: Philippe Coll,Gardening with climate change, Hachette Publishing house, p.7 GS RADJOU TEMPERATURE INCREASE SCENARIOS
  4. 4. GULF STREAM BANQUISE GS RADJOU N. AMERICA S. AMERICA AFRICA EUROPE WARM DRAFT COLD DRAFT DRAFT TEMPERATURES WORLD MAP [EXTRACT] Atlantic ocean N S E W EQUATOR LINE CANCER TROPICAL LINE
  5. 5. Climate change-Global warming Δθ = + 1° celsius Climate change-Global warming source amplification transmission GS RADJOU CRISIS DROUGHT FLOOD ETC UNCERTAINTIES CO2 Others 40 ° C
  6. 6. FOCUS ON TREES
  7. 7. Rainwater Water for growth Soil Water for growth Evapotranspiration Underground water GS RADJOU Water management: knowing how much water goes in and out the tree. CRISIS DROUGHT FLOOD ETC
  8. 8. 3 + 4 = 2 =1 5 6 + 7 7 = 1 – 6 – 4 Water flow equation for a tree (3' + 3'' + 4) 5 - 4 = 2 1 equation: WATER STAYS IN THE SOIL - 3''soil retention Assumptions : - 3: no water stay in the soil under the tree. 3'' 1 = 7 + 6 + 4 5 = 1 - 4 GS RADJOU 0 = total rain 1 = water part for one tree WATER BALANCE FOR TREES/ [management And leadership] New Theory Money grows On trees
  9. 9. Conclusion: Managing water during global warming is easy if one know how to count the water flows. We have the technologies that help to control the water inflow-outflows, thus the water balances. (See also the link with the flood concept and the soil permeability -Darcy Law to have a proper assessment of water retention, recharge and reuse)
  10. 10. Source: Philippe Coll,Gardening with climate change, Hachette Publishing house, p.26 Windy Where leaves stack in a place and make a bed is the sign of the wind aerodynamism. Cold Start to freeze first and also warm up first Wet Watch where water is flowing down to see if plant are adapted to the water in excess. The idea is to plant trees in places where they can stand the water balance Dry Water speeds up and the wind dry the land. Alsa, it helps the tree/plant evapotranspiration. While le soil subsurface is wet, the underground soil is dry. Various cracks on the soil is the sign that one can use camel plant -plant that need little water- Micro-climat in the garden GS RADJOU
  11. 11. 21RST CENTURY PROTECTION NATURAL HAZARD AND DISASTERS TO INCREASE COMMUNITY RESILIENCE AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE AND GLOBAL WARMING GOAL : REBUILD FORESTS
  12. 12. WEATHER CONTROL TOOLS Tools to measure elements of the air emperature and pressure, the wind speed and direction, the soil and water presence
  13. 13. HAVERSTING WATER
  14. 14. GREEN WALL (with leaves and tree branches) BEHAVES LIKE A DEFREGMENTATIONSCREEN Wind before the wall Wind after the wall Whole wind Fragmented wind GS RADJOU HIGH PRESSURE SMALL PRES SURE TREE EFFECTS ON WIND (AND DEFENCE) B
  15. 15. WIND EFFECTS ON WALL WALL AVOIDANCE WIND BEFORE THE WALL WIND JUMPS THE WALL GS RADJOU Turbulence zone/area WIND AFTER THE WALL (HURRICANES ? )
  16. 16. Crisis Recovery CRISIS SEEN AS AN EVENT AND A PROCESS
  17. 17. MY INTERPRETATION OF THE 5 STEPS (AND WHAT I HAVE SEEN INSIDE)THE CRISIS MANAGEMENT A HEAD OF Managing ahead of Crises: Rising towards a Model of Adaptability Yap Kwong Weng * , University of Glasgow, UK You can’t solve problems with the same type of thinking that created them. - Albert Einstein 1° Signal detection 2° Preparation/prevention 3° Containment/damage limitation 4° Recovery 5° Learning [Steps in a crisis encapsulate a traditional crisis cycle, source: Managing ahead of Crises: Rising towards a Model of Adaptability]
  18. 18. CRISIS RECOVERY ? Linearity curve Crisis curve? Risk analysis! Disaster Occurrence Probability theories Watch for signs Indicators variance variance Strategy scenarii good bad Medium WHO DECIDES THERE IS A CRISIS ? Rising the alarm (alert) Pre-alarm (warning) bad Escalation (crisis start) forecast real Policy zone/meeting/ taking decision. Is the prediction matching the threat RISK PROJECT MANAGEMENT UNCERTAINTY MANAGEMENT + OPPORTUNITY MANAGEMENT MANAGEMENT ZONE EVENT OR RISK OCCURENCE HOW DO ONE MANAGE THE OCCURRENCE OR THE RISK ? Crisis theory
  19. 19. A SAMPLE WITH A VOLCANO ERUPTION
  20. 20. Volvano eruption (Island) ASHES Weather forecast (Wind direction) Policy zone/meeting/ taking decision. Is the prediction matching the threat Who decides? What decides? Do we have a crisis? What makes the crisis real? EVENT PROCESS Natural hazard
  21. 21. QUESTIONS IN MIND: IS AN HAZARD (ANY HAZARDS) + A CRISIS A MANAGEMENT ACTIVITY + A PROCESS + AN EVENT + A RISK + NORMAL
  22. 22. GENERAL RULES FOR ALL HAZARDS AND/ OR RISKS
  23. 23. U NCERTAINTY AND SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY MANAGEMENT ZONE PRE-ALARM AND WARNING POLICY MAKING DECISON TAKING TECHNICAL EXPERTISE FORECAST INDICATORS THE REAL WORLD M A N A G E M E N T O R C R I S I S Process EVENT
  24. 24. CRISIS PREVENTION CRISIS TREATMENT CRISIS RECOVERY MANAGERIAL ACTIVITIES AND WORK LOADS FOR MANAGERS VARIED ACCORDINGLY TO THE TYPE OF CRISIS EXPECTED AND ALSO THE TYPE OF MANAGERS (EFFECTIVE ? COMMUNICATIVE? TRADITIONAL?) ALSO THE TYPE OF PROJECT ( PROJECT MANAGEMENT VERSUS RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT) GENERAL RULES FOR MANAGING PRE-CRISIS (IN MY VIEWPOINT MANAGEMENT IS DIFFERENT THAN CRISIS BUT MANAGERS CAN WORK ON THE DIFFERENT PHASES OF A CRISIS THE MOST SATIS FACTORY STEP IN REDUCING CRISIS FOR MANAGEMENT IS BEFORE (PREVENTING THE CRISIS)
  25. 25. POWER CRISIS TREAMENT (viewpoint) BEFORE DURING AFTER MANAGEMENT Theory Of crisis Real world Of crisis The crisis is not detected Or confused or other mixed in the agenda What management Should have prioritized And they did not Neutral crisis Solving line Focus on crisis With risk And opportunities Crisis Is not prioritize in the agenda « queing »
  26. 26. TREATMENT OF CRISIS (METHOD OPTIONS) GS RADJOU MY OPTIONS BUSINESS MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT PROJECT PROJECT MANAGEMENT POWER MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE APPLIED TO A CRISIS) CRISIS SOLVING BUILD ON RISK PROKJECT S OURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES AND RISK UNCERTAINTIES WITH A RISK REDCUTION PROJECT USE OF OPPORTUNITIES KEEPING THE ORGANIZATIONAL BALANCED BY THE GAME OF STAKEHOLDERS AUTHORITY AND LEVERAGE OF POWER
  27. 27. HOW DE WE SEE THERE IS A CRISIS ? (My viewpoint from this above personal analysis) 1- POSSIBLY WHEN THE SYSTEM IS DESORGANISED 2- OUT OF CONTROL IF AN IRREVERSIBLE MANNER 3- ONE CANNOT TREAT THE STRUCTURE/FUNCTION 4- CHANGE THE ORGANIZATION / IN THE ORGANIZATION 5- IRREVERSIBLE CHANGES FOR LESS PROFITABLE OPTIONS 6- UNFAVORABLE OPTIONS 7- NOT FORSEEN OR PREDICTED THE EVENT/OCCURRENCE, SOURCES AND UNCERTAINTIES 8- FAILURES TO DETECT EARLY CHANGES IN THE SYSTEM, EVENT, PROCESS, RESOURCE ALLOCATION, QUALITY OUTPUTS 9-ETC.
  28. 28. Steps in a crisis with new thinkings for adaptation strategy in the 21 rst century. (Adaptation Model) 1°Indicator and survey of the system monitor the business intelligence 2° Being agile and responsive ready to answer to threats in real time 3° act to compensate the systems by means fulfilling the needs 4° returning to normalities is the main option through stratgies of essays (the exception is not inavoidable)- new experience 5° recovery is a mix of alterntives not 100% the initial status.
  29. 29. EQUILIBRIUM GAP DESE QUILI BRIUM CRISIS BLACK BOX CAUSES ISSUE BOX RETURN TO NORMALITIES Solving system GS RADJOU Indicators Pb: Problem (s)
  30. 30. You can’t solve problems with the same type of thinking that created them. - Albert Einstein STRATEGY ADAPTATION ? Inputs: (corrective measures) Ouputs: New strategies With various components inputs ouputs directives incentives Projects
  31. 31. TYPE OF THINKINGS CAUSES EFFECTS LINEARITY THINKING PIPE OBTURATOR (O1) DESOBTURATING (O2) O1 O2 INDICATOR ? Traditional thinkings New thinkings Leadership zone Management zone
  32. 32. Preservation Conservation New thinking > Old thinking New thinking < Old thinking [(? ? ) ] Environmental Management World Hesritage Management Economicrationals Mixed withNew thinkingsfor conservation Goals is a new blend responding to complexity of the production activities in respect to the organizational economy Probably today (and certainly tomorrow), there will be more innovative thinking to conserve the scarce resources. New thinking can be applied to « conserve » ancient hesritage (Pure preservation) Ultimate example: St Jacques Tower in Paris (Chatelet square). The momument is virtual one e.g. a copy was created with the use of technologies to restore what it is supppose to be. Old thinking applied to preservation. The meaning would be using a linear/traditional thinking and keeping it intact: avoid spoiling it! Like a sanctuary! Ressource And Strategy Blends For sustainability
  33. 33. END

×