Confrontation Manager and Florilandia  Rev Ev ©   War Game Mary Crannell,  Idea Sciences Ben Sheppard, Ph.D.  Institute fo...
Agenda 09:00  Afghanistan Narrative 09:30  Introduction to reverse war gaming:  Rev Ev 10:00  Florilandia War game: Scenar...
War Gaming – Introduction <ul><li>War Gaming is… </li></ul><ul><li>A strategic tool originally used by the military and re...
How can War Gaming help you? <ul><li>Test strategy in a safe, confidential environment </li></ul><ul><li>Map  the likely c...
Essence of Rev Ev War Gaming CHANGE RISK… AND  OPPORTUNITY UNCERTAINTY WAR GAMING creates leads to need for strategy strat...
War game structure 1-2 day meeting Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Team(s):  interaction of  people War game outputs Consequences ...
Return on investing in RevEv © <ul><li>Reverse Evolution ©  wargames </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce more insights than stan...
Reverse Evolution Wargame © <ul><li>Starts with a hypothetical yet credible condition, goal or requirement in 20xx </li></...
Typical simulation work-flow <ul><li>Workshop 1  </li></ul><ul><li>(1 day): </li></ul><ul><li>Design Meeting </li></ul><ul...
Our Process <ul><li>Our approach accounts for complexity by: </li></ul><ul><li>Exploring and exploiting conditions on an o...
<ul><li>FLORILANDIA CASE STUDY </li></ul>
Scenario Briefing:  Florilandia background <ul><li>Small hypothetical Latin American country of 8 million </li></ul><ul><l...
Florilandia Simulation Trade Unions Opposition : Pro private sector Government (Legislature) Government (Executive) Privat...
Group Tasks <ul><li>As your assigned group, identify:  </li></ul><ul><li>What do you want to achieve? What is your stated ...
Room allocations Room 302: BLUE / AZUL Government (Executive) - Al Elkins Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLO Government (Legislat...
Group Tasks <ul><li>PART B: </li></ul><ul><li>Do you believe the other parties view your threat as credible? </li></ul><ul...
Contact Details: Mary Crannell,  Idea Sciences [email_address] 703 299 3480 Ben Sheppard Institute for Alternative Futures...
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  • Reverse Evolution ゥ wargames are constructed to reflect the world as a complex adaptive system, one that is sensitive to and that evolves from sets of initial conditions. In real life, we examine and correlate or find causality by retrospectively assigning a set of initial conditions. Reverse Evolution ゥ games mirror real life in this approach. The initial conditions are arrived at in reverse from a distant future condition, goal or requirement that is both feasible and eminently possible. This differs considerably from traditional games, which tend to be designed on a technology trajectory that, in fact, encumbers those games and their players: traditional games are designed on extrapolations from today ’ s capabilities and they attempt to use those extrapolations to answer a relatively bounded problem in advance of that problem or the interdependencies that might occur that would change the problem significantly. It would be akin to imagining what one ’ s life would be like in five or 10 or even 15 years, and asking friends and family to act as players in a game of how one should proceed from that extrapolation. Strategy is ends, ways and means, and tactics are the 塗 ow to � of getting things done. At the operational level, where wargames focus, the game ’ s orientation should be on moving people, information and material in time and space. Reverse Evolution ゥ war games use these operational constants at center-stage in the design of the game, agnostic to whatever is chosen as the game ’ s scenario or time frame. Thus, a Reverse Evolution ゥ war game begins with a time-distant, hypothetical-yet-credible scenario of only the operational-level constants. Next, moving in reverse from this timeless and enduring scenario scene setter, the Reverse Evolution ゥ war game uses experts to identify the seemingly unpredictable and non-linear changes that have to happen if that scenario is to occur, to a point five years from today. At the point five years from today we can identify the initial conditions that present opportunities for initiating long-term changes in complex systems, thus not subjecting game players to extrapolated technology game design. Players use these initial conditions to begin the war game – and results better are able to show how systemic changes will open opportunities for strategies that respond to system dynamics. The result of playing a Reverse Evolution ゥ game is that players and their organizations can learn how to better extract advantages from every operational move so that resources can be used to set conditions for an organization today to exploit the changes in and across systems far into the future. Operations can then be made more efficient for the short-term and more effective in the long-term.
  • Sheppard

    1. 1. Confrontation Manager and Florilandia Rev Ev © War Game Mary Crannell, Idea Sciences Ben Sheppard, Ph.D. Institute for Alternative Futures July 24, 2010
    2. 2. Agenda 09:00 Afghanistan Narrative 09:30 Introduction to reverse war gaming: Rev Ev 10:00 Florilandia War game: Scenario briefing 10:20 Break (move to breakout rooms) 10:40 War game part A: Mapping human confrontations break out rooms as assigned 11:40 Break – reconvene in plenary room 11:50 War game part B: Comparing groups’ perspectives 12:45 Key Insights 13:00 Close
    3. 3. War Gaming – Introduction <ul><li>War Gaming is… </li></ul><ul><li>A strategic tool originally used by the military and refined for the public and private sector </li></ul><ul><li>A means of formulating strategy and developing tactical excellence </li></ul><ul><li>1 – 2 days’ competitive role playing to develop successful action plans for an increasingly challenging environment </li></ul><ul><li>What you get from War Gaming… </li></ul><ul><li>Innovative strategies to gain advantage in a changing world </li></ul><ul><li>An event that identifies robust strategies and pathways </li></ul>
    4. 4. How can War Gaming help you? <ul><li>Test strategy in a safe, confidential environment </li></ul><ul><li>Map the likely consequences of decisions over time </li></ul><ul><li>Explore changes in the external and internal environment </li></ul><ul><li>Identify your organization’s strengths and weaknesses to build credible offensive and defensive strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Identify likely alliances under various scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Assess risk from likely and less likely future developments </li></ul><ul><li>Map confrontations to understand the impact of immediate decisions in winning confrontations over time </li></ul>
    5. 5. Essence of Rev Ev War Gaming CHANGE RISK… AND OPPORTUNITY UNCERTAINTY WAR GAMING creates leads to need for strategy strategic action plan
    6. 6. War game structure 1-2 day meeting Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Team(s): interaction of people War game outputs Consequences of actions taken in round 1 carry through to rounds 2 & 3 input i nput External environment variables Time period 1 Time period 2 Time period 3 Objective: Create and explore hypothetical but credible scenarios Develop and test strategies, plans, and responses in a “safe” environment Internal environment variables
    7. 7. Return on investing in RevEv © <ul><li>Reverse Evolution © wargames </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Produce more insights than standard wargames </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Provides players with rich and credible opportunities to address uncertainty inherent across many futures </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Leverage your resources and activities for any future </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Roadmap capabilities to better prepare for any future </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased awareness of early warning trends; improved organizational ability to take advantage of windows of opportunities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Biases leadership toward execution </li></ul></ul>
    8. 8. Reverse Evolution Wargame © <ul><li>Starts with a hypothetical yet credible condition, goal or requirement in 20xx </li></ul><ul><li>Includes the operational constants – people, information and things in time and space across PMESII-G. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Political, Military, Economic, Informational, Infrastructure, Geophysical </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Experts design backward from this scenario -- evolve in reverse -- finally arriving at 2015 and a set of initial conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Players execute these initial conditions forward in a wargame </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Shows systemic changes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Can open strategic opportunities based on system dynamics </li></ul></ul>
    9. 9. Typical simulation work-flow <ul><li>Workshop 1 </li></ul><ul><li>(1 day): </li></ul><ul><li>Design Meeting </li></ul><ul><li>Identify key questions to build simulation around </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop 2 </li></ul><ul><li>(2-3 days): </li></ul><ul><li>Rev Ev Design </li></ul><ul><li>Identify initial conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Workshop 3 </li></ul><ul><li>(2-3 days) </li></ul><ul><li>War game: </li></ul><ul><li>Develop and stress test new strategies and identify unintended consequences </li></ul><ul><li>Full Report: </li></ul><ul><li>Key findings & strategies </li></ul>
    10. 10. Our Process <ul><li>Our approach accounts for complexity by: </li></ul><ul><li>Exploring and exploiting conditions on an ongoing basis, and </li></ul><ul><li>Embedding the vision in the routine activities you perform every day. </li></ul>
    11. 11. <ul><li>FLORILANDIA CASE STUDY </li></ul>
    12. 12. Scenario Briefing: Florilandia background <ul><li>Small hypothetical Latin American country of 8 million </li></ul><ul><li>Lacks good governance </li></ul><ul><li>Non oil growth rate low at 2% - hydrocarbons 50% down from 2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Oil sector nationalized yet sector needs foreign investment & expertise </li></ul><ul><li>Florilandia faces economic disaster if economy not revitalized </li></ul><ul><li>Credit rating downgraded and threat of debt default looms with potential currency collapse </li></ul><ul><li>Some trade unions are restless with wage freezes </li></ul><ul><li>National Social Revolutionary terrorist group threatens resumption of violence </li></ul>
    13. 13. Florilandia Simulation Trade Unions Opposition : Pro private sector Government (Legislature) Government (Executive) Private sector President Ramón Robles; President of Petroflor; Minister of Energy and Mines President of Congress; President of the Marxist Party Mayor of Puerto Salinas ; Mayor of Azucena; former Minister of Energy and Mines; former Presidents (Norberto and Garcia) Leader of the hydrocarbons industry Labor Union; Leader of the Federation of Unions (comprised of Transport Union, and the Union of Public Utility Workers) President of Petrolera Internacional USA President of Petróleos Europeos Media Editor of the Puerto (pro-opposition) ; VEA (pro governmen t) Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Map Confrontations and Build Coalitions Leverage Coalitions Implement compliance plan TEAMS TEAMS TEAMS
    14. 14. Group Tasks <ul><li>As your assigned group, identify: </li></ul><ul><li>What do you want to achieve? What is your stated objective? </li></ul><ul><li>What do you want others to do to achieve your goal? </li></ul><ul><li>What will you offer other parties to get them to your view point? </li></ul><ul><li>What will you threaten and / or promise the other parties to keep them to your view point? </li></ul>
    15. 15. Room allocations Room 302: BLUE / AZUL Government (Executive) - Al Elkins Room 305: YELLOW / AMARILLO Government (Legislature) – Mary Crannell – Room 307: ORANGE / NARANJA Opposition parties (pro private sector) – Gustavo Coronel Room 309: RED / ROJO Trade Unions – Ben Sheppard Room 310: GREEN / VERDE Private sector (international oil companies) – Ricardo Castillo
    16. 16. Group Tasks <ul><li>PART B: </li></ul><ul><li>Do you believe the other parties view your threat as credible? </li></ul><ul><li>If your threat is viewed as credible, is it enough to persuade the other parties to your point of view? </li></ul>
    17. 17. Contact Details: Mary Crannell, Idea Sciences [email_address] 703 299 3480 Ben Sheppard Institute for Alternative Futures [email_address] 703-684-5880

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