2009 October Px L Hdv2009 Iran And Hez Coach Pres V1.0

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2009 October Px L Hdv2009 Iran And Hez Coach Pres V1.0

  1. 1. Iran – Hezbollah A Persian Journey? A Shia Journey? A Crusade against Colonialism? Graeme Goldsworthy Team Coach, Pax Ludens October 2009
  2. 2. Iran as Persia
  3. 3. Early encounters with the ‘Barbarian’ west <ul><li>Marathon 492 BC </li></ul><ul><li>Thermopylae 480BC </li></ul>
  4. 4. Alexander the Great Persia has her first taste of Western Civilisation
  5. 5. More Recently <ul><ul><li>Seleucid successors </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Independent of Roman Empire </li></ul><ul><li>Ottoman resistance </li></ul><ul><li>British Influence from India, Oil factor </li></ul><ul><li>WW2 divisions </li></ul><ul><li>Post WW2 </li></ul><ul><li>1953 </li></ul>
  6. 6. 1979 Two key factors converge <ul><li>Iranian Revolution </li></ul><ul><li>Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan </li></ul>
  7. 7. Iran – Iraq War 1980-1988 (1) <ul><li>US proxy conflict </li></ul><ul><li>Resource based </li></ul><ul><li>Territorial </li></ul><ul><li>Secular - Theocratic </li></ul>
  8. 8. Iran – Iraq War 1980-1988 (2) <ul><li>War of the Cities </li></ul><ul><li>Use of WMD </li></ul><ul><li>Tanker War </li></ul><ul><li>Martyrdom of the Sephah </li></ul><ul><li>Isolation of Iran </li></ul>
  9. 9. The 1980s Iran begins the return to the Mediterranean coast <ul><li>Chaos of Lebanese Civil War </li></ul><ul><li>Effectively replace PLO </li></ul><ul><li>Rally and recruit Shia in Lebanon </li></ul><ul><li>Builds Hezbollah </li></ul><ul><li>Sephah Pasadaran-e trg cadres </li></ul><ul><li>Spectacular attacks, kidnappings </li></ul><ul><li>Effective resistance to US, Israel </li></ul><ul><li>Undermines SLA </li></ul><ul><li>… .. </li></ul><ul><li>By 2000, forces Israel from South Lebanon </li></ul>
  10. 10. 2006 and the (Re) Capture of Tyre <ul><li>Hezbollah controls Tyre </li></ul>
  11. 11. ‘ Our’Iranians <ul><li>Exiles </li></ul><ul><li>Westernised </li></ul><ul><li>2 nd and 3 rd generation </li></ul><ul><li>Students </li></ul><ul><li>Decadent </li></ul>
  12. 12. ‘ Their’ Iranians <ul><li>1979 – Class system inverted </li></ul><ul><li>Laats </li></ul><ul><li>Basij </li></ul><ul><li>The Private society </li></ul><ul><li>Opium culture </li></ul>
  13. 13. Attitudes <ul><li>Use of language </li></ul><ul><li>Use of rhetoric </li></ul><ul><li>Visual displays </li></ul><ul><li>Demonstrations </li></ul><ul><li>Privacy </li></ul>
  14. 14. Negotiation Iran does not negotiate unless negotiation is deployed as a weapon <ul><li>Gholov </li></ul><ul><li>(Superior) </li></ul><ul><li>Extreme rhetoric, boasting, bombastic…… </li></ul><ul><li>… macho behaviour </li></ul><ul><li>“ I want to fuck your sister” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Death to America” </li></ul><ul><li>Ta’arouf </li></ul><ul><li>(Inferior) </li></ul><ul><li>Insulting an opponent using extremes of modest language and gestures </li></ul><ul><li>Holocaust denial… </li></ul><ul><li>“ I do not believe such a thing could be perpetrated by such a civilised people” </li></ul>
  15. 15. Iranian Long term ambitions <ul><li>Establish hegemony in Middle East </li></ul><ul><li>Establish Shia ascendancy over that hegemony </li></ul><ul><li>Lead the counter forces to Western Colonialism </li></ul><ul><li>Eject West from the region </li></ul><ul><li>Control Resources </li></ul>
  16. 16. Short – Medium term goals <ul><li>Subvert Lebanon </li></ul><ul><li>Shia convert southern Syria </li></ul><ul><li>Destabilise Saudi Arabia </li></ul><ul><li>Rearm conventional forces </li></ul><ul><li>Maintain progress toward nuclear status </li></ul><ul><li>Increase influence in Afghanistan </li></ul><ul><li>Completely control the Straights of Hormuz </li></ul>
  17. 17. The Sepah Pasadaran-e Inqilab The Revolutionary Guard Corps <ul><li>Defenders of the Revolution and the State </li></ul><ul><li>Laats and Basijs </li></ul><ul><li>Working and religious classes </li></ul><ul><li>Quds (Jerusalem) Force </li></ul><ul><li>Hezbollah </li></ul><ul><li>Hamas </li></ul>
  18. 18. Iran and Hezbollah
  19. 19. Hezbollah Iran’s military, political, social and economic proxy in the Lebanon <ul><li>Iranian supplied missile ranges </li></ul>
  20. 20. The Players <ul><li>Iran </li></ul><ul><li>Mahmoud Ahmadinejad </li></ul><ul><li>Manoucheher Mottaki </li></ul><ul><li>Ali Vahidi </li></ul><ul><li>Hezbollah </li></ul><ul><li>Hassan Nasrallah </li></ul><ul><li>Sheikh Naim Kassam </li></ul>
  21. 21. Individual Role Profile (IRP) <ul><li>Biography (who is this person, in depth) </li></ul><ul><li>Function (Political, Military role) </li></ul><ul><li>Mandate </li></ul><ul><li>External Position and Internal Position </li></ul><ul><li>Friends and Enemies </li></ul><ul><li>Supporters </li></ul><ul><li>Agenda (and Secret Agenda) </li></ul><ul><li>Active / Passive </li></ul><ul><li>Quotes </li></ul>
  22. 22. Team Profile and Strategies <ul><li>Historical background </li></ul><ul><li>Diplomatic relations </li></ul><ul><li>Economic relations </li></ul><ul><li>Military relations </li></ul><ul><li>State Information </li></ul><ul><li>Political organisation </li></ul><ul><li>Geographical, Economic and Demographic data </li></ul><ul><li>Military data (ORBATs) </li></ul><ul><li>Flags and emblems </li></ul><ul><li>(Agenda and Secret Agenda) </li></ul>
  23. 23. And one final tip for negotiating Iran – Hezbollah style…. <ul><li>- Shia Islam is above all a Political Religion </li></ul><ul><li>- Islam forbids lying </li></ul><ul><li>- Politicians lie…….Thus the concept of; </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Taghiyeh’ </li></ul><ul><li>One may lie, sanctioned by God in order to protect the life of the believer (and conceal one’s faith) </li></ul>
  24. 24. There is only one god <ul><li>Iran is Hezbollah and Hezbollah is Iran </li></ul>
  25. 25. Q and A

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