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World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative
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World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative

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Keiko SAITO, Daniel KULL, Robert SODEN, Abigail BACA

Keiko SAITO, Daniel KULL, Robert SODEN, Abigail BACA

World Bank, United States of America

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  • Visualisation of risk assessment results, based on inputs including detailed exposure data collected by local communities. Raising awareness of risks in own communities. Questions thatInaSAFE aims to answer which are useful for decision makers:Where are the areas likely to be affected?How many people will need to be evacuated and sheltered?Which schools will be closed (given a scenario)?Capacity of hospitals to take patients under certain conditions?Which roads will be closed? (given a scenario)

World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative World Bank/GFDRR contributions to exposure modeling for global risk modeling initiatives and OpenDRI initiative Presentation Transcript

  • World Bank-GFDRR activities on exposure mapping-modelling 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference, Davos, 27 August 2012 Dr. Daniel Kull 1, Dr. Keiko Saito 1, Robert Soden 1 and Abigail Bacca 2 1: Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), The World Bank Group 2: East Asia and Pacific Region, The World Bank Group Labs
  • Relevance of global exposure data modeling for World Bank – GFDRRWB involved in the following activities:• Global Earthquake Model: Global effort to map the risk from earthquakes worldwide. Open source model.• CAPRA (multi hazard risk model): Open Source, originally developed for Central and Latin American countries by LAC DRM team, currently being implemented for South Asian countries.• Global Assessment Report 2013 and 2015 (multi hazard risk model): Lead by UN-ISDR, WB contributing to exposure model. Discussions on strategy, on going for the 2015 model. Labs
  • WB/GFDRR contribution for GAR 2015• Strategy: Bottom-up approach? – Incorporation of detailed exposure data from city, national or sub-regional risk assessments, damage and loss assessments and other relevant studies – World Bank funded projects have generated exposure data in the past: • Take stock of what is available within WB – Feasibility of incorporating these datasets into a global mosaic – Use of landuse/land cover datasets to infer underlying exposure? Remote Sensing? Labs
  • Examples of relevant WB funded projects• At the Local scale (cities) – Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment in Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) & Yogyakarta (Indonesia) • In the framework of the EOWORLD initiative – a collaboration between European Space Agency and the World Bank which focuses on application of Earth Observation (EO) based information to planning, implementation, monitoring and assessment of the World Bank projects • Exposure data generated through project: urban area (mapping of infrastructure and building inventories), population, potential economic damage Labs
  • Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) Labs
  • Labs
  • Yogyakarta (Indonesia) Labs
  • Labs
  • Examples of relevant WB funded projects• At the Local scale (cities) – Assessing Vulnerability in the Metropolitan Area of Rio de Janeio (Brazil) • In the framework of the EOWORLD initiative – a collaboration between European Space Agency and the World Bank which focuses on application of Earth Observation (EO) based information to planning, implementation, monitoring and assessment of the World Bank projects • Exposure data generated through project: urban land use (e.g., residential areas, roads, airports, ports, etc.) Labs
  • Rio de Janeiro (Brasil) Labs
  • Labs
  • Examples of exposure related WB projects– Africa Energy Infrastructure • Exposure data generated through project : population, area, and power stations Labs
  • Example: Pacific islands Exposure DatabaseProject Generated exposure data: Complete coverage of 15 countries. Population distribution, 340,000 building footprints (incl. building use and construction classes), main infrastructure data (e.g., roads, bridges, dams, ports, and airports), utilities and major crops Glassey et al. (2010) Labs
  • Other examples of exposure related WB projects• At the Regional scale – Namibia flood risk mapping • Exposure data generated through project : Mapping with available economic values for housing, agricultural lands and transport infrastructure (roads and bridges), estimation of replacement costs per unit or lost production per unit area for different type of crops and livestock and calculation of damages for different levels of flood – Mozambique disaster risk management • Exposure data generated through project : Risk mapping of vulnerable assets in key sectors and participatory urban disaster risk management – Yemen, Morocco etc… Labs
  • Example of use of exposure data by EAP/GFDRR: OpenDRI Indonesia – Tools for Decision MakersInaSAFE Software (QGIS plug-in): Scenario Assessment for Emergencies•Get the best availablescience and data to bear ondisaster managementdecisions.•Make it easy to generaterealistic disaster scenariosfor use in contingencyplanning.•Provide evidence basedand quantitative impactassessments.• Partnership withIndonesia DisasterManagement Agency(BNPB), AIFDR-AusAID Labs
  • WB/GFDRR contribution for GAR 2015• Bottom-up approach? – Incorporation of detailed exposure data from city, national or sub-regional risk assessments, damage and loss assessments and other relevant studies – WB-funded projects carried out and resulting relevant data in many regions of the world • Most detailed example of local-scale exposure data collection: Pacific Exposure Database • Reasonable basis for global mosaic? – ‘doubtful’ • Governments and national entities would have to provide additional data to sort of ‘fill the catalogue’ – Use of landuse/land cover datasets to infer underlying exposure? Remote Sensing? Labs
  • Thank you for your attention Questions? dkull@worldbank.org ksaito2@worldbank.org Labs