Walter Ammann - Business Continuity Management within the Concept of Integrative Risk and Disaster Management – A Holistic Approach
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  • 1. Business Continuity Management within the Concept of Integrative Risk and Disaster Management – A Holistic Approach Walter J. Ammann, President Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Davos, Switzerland BCM IDRC Post -Conferencewww.grforum.org Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 1
  • 2. RISKS – THE VALUE AT RISK SIDE Values exposed to hazards Damage potentialBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 2
  • 3. RISKS - VALUES EXPOSED TO HAZARDS Damage Potential (what can be affected?) • Human lives and health • Live-stock (urbanisation) • Critical Infrastructures and Services (Hospitals, schools, transportation, energy, food, water, waste-water, etc.) • Communication (IT infrastructure) • Production (Industry) • Image, reputation • EtcBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 3
  • 4. RISK – THE THREAT SIDE ProcessesBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 4
  • 5. RISK – THE POTENTIAL INTERATCTION SIDE Values exposed to hazards Processes Damage potential RISKBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 5
  • 6. (MATHEMATICAL) DEFINITION OF RISK RISK = Hazard x Values at Risk x Vulnerability Climate Change Humans, All values are will increase the Animals, Assets, vulnerable. frequency and Infrastructures, Vulnerability can intensity Services, be reduced with Environment measures ResilienceBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 6
  • 7. CHARACTERISTICS OF CASCADING EFFECTS Uncertainties: Primary Event • Intensity cause and effect • Effects • Interactions • response Secondary Secondary Secondary Event Event Event Intentional (external) threats/attacks Subsequent Interactions Secondary Event Event Subsequent Secondary Event EventBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 7
  • 8. Water treatment works Railway station Fire station Broadband antenna Electricity sub-station Hospital Supermarket Power station Waste water treatment worksFLOOD SITUATION BCM IDRC Post -Conference 31 August 2012 8 Walter J. Ammann
  • 9. RISK MANAGEMENT (RISK MATRIX) frequent possible Technical Probability Other rare very rare Natural improbable insignificant small perceptible critical catastrophic IMPACTBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 9
  • 10. IRM - RISK REDUCTION & DISASTER MANAGEMENTIntegrative Risk Management IRM concentratesequally on all phases of the risk circle - on prevention,intervention and recoverySystem approachBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 10
  • 11. IRM – THE RISK REDUCTION STAIR-CASE Prevention Technical measures Organisational measures Avoiding, eliminiating Recovery Education Rehabilitation Training Total original risk level risk situations Insurance Intervention Risk reduction Organizational measures Emergency/ Crisis Management by preventive measures Emergency Management Risk Transfer (Micro-) Insurance Self-Responsibility (Residual Risk) mitigate, adopt, share, suffer,BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 11
  • 12. THE HUMAN FACTOR - RESILIENCEDamage as a result of humanactions and behaviourTimely and appropriateintervention influences extent ofdamage and human behaviourRobustness- redundancy –resilience: A resilient systemhelps to recover faster and tokeep secondary damagecontainedBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 1231 August 2012 12
  • 13. Schematic of Resilience Event Resilience is high if A is small100% (Vulnerability) Functionality A Functionality Loss in Robustness Recovery Time Time t event t recoveryBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 13
  • 14. Resilience100% Vulnerability Resilience Service Level Functionality, Recovery Time Time t event t recoveryBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 14
  • 15. SUMMARY – SUSTAINABLE COMMUNITIES• All hazards approach for risk analysis and assessment, (cascading effects!) – Risk Matrix.• Integrative risk management (prevention, preparedness, intervention/ response, recovery)• Resilience, robustness, redundancy• Proportionality, cost effectiveness, cost- efficiency• Communication, awareness raisingBCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann31 August 2012 15
  • 16. FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION! Vision without action – a day-dream Action without vision – a nightmare Jan Egeland, Kobe 2005 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!CONTACT INFORMATION walter.ammann@grforum.orgGlobal Risk Forum GRF DavosPromenade 35CH-7270 DavosPhone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610info@grforum.orgwww.grforum.org BCM IDRC Post -Conference Walter J. Ammann 31 August 2012 16