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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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Social vulnerability to drought risks Social vulnerability to drought risks Presentation Transcript

  • Social Vulnerability to Drought 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risks in the Arab Region Prof. Wadid ERIAN The League of Arab States LAS Lead Author in IPCC - SREX , WGII Member in UNISDR GAR Advisory Board Advisor World Bank 2012 Bassem Katlan, GIS specialist. The Arab Centre for the Study of Arid Zones and Drylands ACSAD, Kishan Khoday, Regional Practice Leader for Environment & Energy and ZubairMurshed, Disaster Risk Reduction Advisor, United Nations Development Programme, UNDP Regional Center in Cairo
  • 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Temperatures … Increase Precipitation ……decline Evapo-transpiration levels …. move up Water availability reduced Population continue ……. growing Climate variability ----increases The already on going Water-Scarce in the region becomes disaster Accordingly, People in many Arab countries may not have enough water to irrigate crops, support industry, or provide drinking water. Poverty, Unemployment, Diseases, Instability between farmers and pastoralists People living in cities and those working in tourism …….. increase natural resources becomes under risk Climate change also affects gender dynamics. Challenges requires Adaptation Pyramid, which is based on process of assessing the climate, reacting to the perceived challenges, implementing cross-sectoral responses, and monitoring progress; all with strong leadership. Climate Change in the Arab States Illustrates: Source WB 2012
  • 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ب أ د ج ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Projected Aridity Changes in the 21st Century. Dai Aiguo 2010. “Drought under Global Warming “ . National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado , USA , John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81 أ ب ج و ه ـ
  • As a result of inevitable Population Gross population growth (possibly to 600 Million by 2050) and expected economic development 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Population Density Person/Km 2 it is clear that there will rising demands for Water, Food and Energy from the land over the coming decades. http://en.wikipedia.org/w iki/Image:Pop_density.jpg
  • INCREASED FOOD GAP expected to reach 70 B $ by the year 2025 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • Water and Land in Agriculture Green Water Blue Water Gray 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org SUBLIMANTRY IRRIGATION GRAY WATER FORSTS & FRUIT TREES 60 M Ha (4%) RAINFED Crops 80 M Ha (6%) RANGELANDS +/- 230 M Ha (17%) IRRIGATED CROPS SURFACE WATER IRRIGATED CROPS GROUND WATER BRAKISH WATER Water Brackish Water 2,148 only 10% is used the rest evaporate 209 surface , 38 ground 30 Desalinization km3 per year World Bank, 2007a 11 M Ha (1%) Vegetation Cover Areas is only 27.8 % of the total Arab Countries’ Area Source Erian 2014
  • Most of the Arab countries are consequently heading towards a severe water scarcity. A close look at the current status of the water supply shows that it is continuing to decline. By 2025, the per capita water supply will be approximately 500 m3 /cap/yr, or 15 per cent of what it used to be in 1960, when it stood at 3,300 m3 /cap/yr. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • The Arab region has a total area of about 14 million square kilometers, of which more than 87 per cent is desert, with extreme aridity and poor vegetation cover. The average amount of rain received by the Arab region is estimated at 2,148 km3 per year, of which about 50 per cent occurs in the Sudan. Total precipitation averages 156 mm/yr5 but varies considerably from one country to another. Over 90 per cent of rainwater in dry marginal rangelands,6 including the Arab region, is lost to evaporation Renewable water resources in the Arab region are estimated at around 335 km3 /yr; more than half of this amount (60 – 65%) originates outside the region and enters the regions primarily via international rivers (trans- boundary rivers). The agricultural sector is the prime water consumer at the regional level, with an annual average consumption level of 146 km3 , or 83% per cent of the total amount of water available. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org FACTS Arab Countries Regional Report, WWF5, 2009. World Bank, 2007a. FAO, 1997. World Water Forum 2006, WB2007, UNDP 2008. IFAD, Thematic Priorities in NENA 2008. AOAD 2006 Statistics. FAO-Aquastat database Due to water scarcity, a total of approximately 30 km3 of unconventional water supplies (desalinated seawater) are being produced every year, mainly in the Gulf countries
  • Precipitation deficit is defined as a METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT. A period of abnormally dry weather long enough to cause a serious hydrological imbalance. Drought is a relative term shortage of precipitation related to particular activity during the growing season affects yield - SOIL MOISTURE DROUGHT, or AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT, Storage changes in soil moisture and groundwater are also affected by increases in actual evapotranspiration in addition to reductions in precipitation. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org A MEGADROUGHT is drought, lasting much longer than normal, usually a decade or more. during the runoff season affects water supplies – HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT. Source: Erian et al 2012 modified from IPCC 2012
  • EXPO SURE POPULATION 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 VULNER ABILITY ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org AGRICULTURE DROUGHT HAZARD LAND COVER/USE LOSS IN Vegetation LAND –USE including Negative change in vegetation Cover Land degradation in Arab Countries and River’s Basins LOSS IN CROPS SPEI AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT SOCIO ECONOMICA VULNERABILITY AVAILABLE STATISTICAL DATA ANALYSIS HAZ ARD RISK Affected POPULATION Source: Erian et al 2012
  •  C 1. No DHA covers 885.74 million Km2 of the study area and represents 66.21%  C 2 Slight DHA covers 2.4 million Km2 of the study area and represents 17.88%  C 3. Moderate DHA covers 1.6 million Km2 of the study area and represents 11.91%  C 4. Severe DHA covers 0.53 million Km2 of the study area and represents 4.01% 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • Total effected areas by LD are ≈ 600 million hectares represents 44.84% of the total Arab Region area 1400 million hectares , the Severely affected (moderate and severe) areas are ≈ 205 million hectares represents 15.35% of the total Study area. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Potential Estimated Losses in Rainfed TOTAL Arab Region Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 49.85 5760 606.06 Countries Ranked Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Sudan 17.78 1897 204.43 Algeria 8.03 1016 104.32 Morocco 9.95 883 99.98 Iraq 3.63 588 57.27 Syria 3.64 524 52.20 Mauritania 2.07 286 28.93 Tunisia 2.21 269 27.78 Lebanon 0.66 79 8.17 Yemen 0.52 67 6.90 Libya 0.39 49 5.04 Saudi 0.31 34 Arabia 3.58 Egypt 0.23 27 2.88 West Bank 0.28 17 2.17 Jordan 0.09 18 1.69 Oman 0.05 6 0.63 UAE 0.01 0 0.06 Kuwait 0 0 0.02 Qatar 0 0 0.02
  • 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Potential Estimated Losses in Rangelands TOTAL Arab Region Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 80.6 18127 64.44 Countries Ranked Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Sudan 40.23 8415 30.15 Algeria 8.49 2291 8.00 Mauritania 8.99 2093 7.35 Iraq 5.89 1841 6.34 Morocco 7.86 1417 5.21 Syria 3.11 852 2.98 Tunisia 1.72 407 1.45 Yemen 1.22 242 0.87 Libya 1.08 201 0.74 Saudi Arabia 1 165 0.62 Jordan 0.36 72 0.26 Lebanon 0.19 48 0.17 Oman 0.17 32 0.12 West Bank 0.13 19 0.07 Egypt 0.1 20 0.07 W.Sahara 0.05 8 0.03
  • TOTAL LOSSES 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Countries Ranked with TOTAL Losses Losses in Million Ha Losses in Billion US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Sudan 59.54 11018 235.10 Algeria 16.75 3384 112.37 Morocco 17.91 2352 105.23 Iraq 9.53 2435 63.62 Syria 6.79 1406 55.20 Mauritania 11.19 2508 36.37 Tunisia 3.99 693 29.23 Lebanon 0.87 134 8.35 Yemen 1.74 310 7.77 Libya 1.47 250 5.78 Saudi Arabia 1.31 200 4.20 Egypt 0.33 47 2.95 West Bank 0.41 36 2.24 Jordan 0.45 90 1.95 Oman 0.22 41 0.74 UAE 0.02 1 0.07 Kuwait 0.01 5 0.03 Qatar 0 1 0.02 Western Sahara 0.05 8 Comoros 0 3 Total Arab Region 132.58 24.922 671.23 Farmers, poor people in rural areas are moving to cities creating pressure on housing and Random settlement areas . By the year 2050 almost 70% of population will be leaving in cities many of them without are jobless or work in informal business job . Loosing land and renewable water sources means less food production, degradation, reduction in biodiversity, instability, and increase conflicts , displacement and migration.
  • 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Countries South Europe Ranifed Rangelands Forest Total Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘001 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘001 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘001 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Billion US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in 10000 South Europe countries Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Serbia, Portugal, Croatia, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia & Herzeg, Armenia, Montenegro and Bulgaria 39.64 7610 7149893 714.99 35.78 11482 39.43 22.37 18864 13.62 97.79 37.956 7.68 Total Arab Regon 49.85 5760 884282 606.06 80.6 18127 64.44 2.13 1035 0.76 132.58 24.922 671.23 Total Important Middle East Countries Turkey, Iran and Israel 40.29 8426 7780498 5392.534 32.84 9949 34.513 8.91 6991 5.127 82.04 25.366 54.32174 Agriculture share in GDP are 2.5%, 7.4%, 11% respectively
  • Agriculture share in GDP are 27 %, 20% respectively 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Countries Ranifed Rangelands Forest Total Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Billion US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Total other Nile Basin Countries: Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Congo DR, Uganda, Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda 18.96 3244 311.54 76.67 26927 2.73 1458 1.049 98.36 31.629 403.5 Egypt and Sudan 18.01 1924 207.31 40.33 8435 1.53 706 0.526 59.87 11.065 238.0
  • Agriculture share in GDP are 35%, 12% respectively 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Countries Ranifed Rangelands Forest Total Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Million US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Losses in Million Ha Losses in Billion US$ No. of Worker lost Jobs in ‘000 Total Chad, Niger, Mali and Senegal 29.59 3220 345.18 52.48 11377 40.40 0.57 237 0.146 82.64 14.834 385.73 Total Algeria, Morocco, Mauritania, Tunis and Libya 22.65 2503 266.04 28.14 6409 22.75 0.52 275 0.193 51.31 9.187 288.98
  • Water, Energy and Food Security On the Right Road to Rio+20 Domestic REDUCE COST We are here 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Irrigated Increased by CHANGING GRADUALY ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Gray Water Brackish and Sea Water Rainfed Harvesting Efficiency Desalinization Treatment Develop Nuclear & renewable sources of energy Tourisms Energy Price per Water M3 High Tech Industry Moderate Tech Industry Low Tech Industry High Cash Crops Moderate Cash Crops Subsistence farming High non- renewable LOW sources of energy Source Erian 2014
  • 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CONCLUSION  Drought and land degradation is extremely serious problem in the Arab region, and will be an increasingly a threat, If the losses is in 132 million hectares that represent ≈30% of the total vegetation cover area. That but the Arab region under growing food insecurity, increasingly food gab (expected to reach 70 B $ by the year 2025 ).  With food insecurity increasing and the loss of vegetation cover increases, and as the majority of GDP is coming from Agriculture we could see ≈ 28% of Arab Region ‘s population is already under in poverty, with increase of Job losses.  Drought and desertification across much in area with a high sensitivity of vegetation cover and crops to climate force that usually resulted in rapid land use changes and high vulnerability to land degradation.  A key challenge for understanding and addressing these risks is to bring together the science of climate change and drought risks on one hand, and emerging resilience based development policy responses on the other hand.  Many countries in the Arab Region are suffering from increased conflicts, displacements and instability, alongside growing fragility of ecosystem services, with trends of land degradation, soil depletion and reduced water security.
  • 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org This framework , as shown below is based on:  better understanding of Modeling Drought Risk Assessment, using indices for analyzing long-term drought trends and satellite data to reconstruct past agricultural droughts, and measuring Drought main elements “intensity, variability frequency and persistence” in any given area.  With this information, it is possible to identify the exposure of areas of rainfed agriculture, rangeland, forests, irrigated croplands, individuals and cattle to agricultural drought as well as the amount of drought-affected areas experiencing land degradation,  to further estimate expected annual average losses, in multi-resolution and scales that allow working in Multi levels (global, regional, national and local communities), (Erian et al., 2014)
  • Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for DRR • We need to recognize people specially poor people in fragile ecosystem communities (e.g. Drylands which represent 41% of the globe and 2 billion people), they require better attention, • few people are talking about “Oasis “ they are under threat of 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org nature hazards and deterioration. • Prevention, Recovery and Building Resilience Require using our resources better in Research, Education & Training, Implementation & Practice and Policy. We are sharing this Universe …and NO ONE IS SAFE if the others are SUFFERING and become Hopeless. • Remember that what so called “Arab Spring “ was only a start of more violence , killing,…. and not yet controlled….. Drought, Land degradation Poverty, Unemployment …….. lack of nature resources , population increasing played major role.
  • Thank you 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org wadiderian@yahoo.com wadiderian@gmail.com