Comparative Risk Assessment – Risk Indicators and Spatial Patterns
Content 10. Juni 2010 PSI,
O&G Infrastructures in the Context of Energy Security 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Energy Sector
complex networks of human-made systems
subject to multiple threats (technical, human, physical, natural, cyber,…)
inter-dependent ; physically and through ICT
disruptions may have cascading effects
multiple stakeholders (owner/operator/regulator)
indispensible for the functioning of today’s society and economy
prerequisite for the production and provision of many goods and services
Oil & Natural Gas
vulnerability to transient or long-term physical disruptions to import supplies
geopolitics : availability of local & imported resources
economy : affordable prices, underinvestment
increased awareness for Natech (Reinsurers)
dominates current worldwide consumption
remain important for the forseeable future
demand growth predominantly in emerging and developing countries
Critical Infrastructure Key Resource
Components of Security Risks in the Energy Sector 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Availability risks geopolitical, short- and/or long-term limitations Import dependency no/little diversity, transit countries Rising and volatile prices domestic social/political issues Overall stability and reliability of the supply system resilience Climate change risks environmental and health risks Regulatory risks flawed regulations Comparative Risk Assessment Accident Database ENSAD Severe accidents Vandalism, sabotage and terrorist threat
Oil and Gas Energy Chains 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Downstream: refining / processing, distribution of oil products and processed natural gas Midstream: storage and transport of crude oil and natural gas Upstream: exploration and extraction of crude oil and natural gas Generation: power and heating plants
10. Juni 2010 PSI, Methodological Framework for Severe Accident Analysis Primary Information Sources Energy-Related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD) Evaluation Dataset Comparative Risk Assessment PSA Comprehensive and worldwide Fossil, hydro, nuclear, renewables Full energy chains Scope and objectives Tailored database queries Geo-referencing / coupling with external data
Economic loss Release of hydrocarbons Land/water contamination Evacuees Food consumption ban Fatalities Injuries Impact Category USD per GWeyr ≥ 5 Mio USD (2000) Economic Tonne per GWeyr km 2 per GWeyr ≥ 10’000 t ≥ 25 km 2 Environmental Evacuees per GWeyr Nominal scale ≥ 200 yes Societal Fatalities per GWeyr Injured per GWeyr ≥ 5 ≥ 10 Human health Consequence indicator ENSAD severity threshold Risk description
Examples of O&G Infrastructure Accidents 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Hurricane Katrina (USA), platform Kocaeli earthquake (Tur), fire at refinery Lightning struck oil storage tank Natech Technological Intentional Fire/explosion at LNG facility (Algeria) Prestige,Galicia (Spain) Deepwater Horizon (USA), platform refinery attack Saudi Arabia guerilla attack on gas pipeline 8Mexico) Explosion of tapped gasoline pipeline, Nigeria tanker Sirius Star hijacked by pirates
10. Juni 2010 PSI,
First line: coal non-OECD without China; second line: coal China
Aggregated Fatality Rates in O&G chains (1970-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI,
OECD and EU 27 countries have distinctly lower fatality rates compared to non-OECD.
The most accident prone chain stage is regional & local distribution by pipeline .
The much larger share of exploration / extraction in non-OECD is primarily due to one very large accident in China with 243 fatalities alone.
Transport to refinery and regional & local distribution are the most accident-prone stages; most frequent are tanker accidents at sea and road accidents involving tank trucks .
The share of exploration / extraction is about 2 times higher in non-OECD.
Import-adjusted EU 27 Fatality Rates in O&G chains (1970-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI,
For natural gas the import-adjusted fatality rate is only 13% greater than the actual EU 27 value, with non-OECD and NIS countries having the largest contributions.
The adjusted value for the oil chain is 2.8x greater, which is mainly attributable to non-OECD with numerous extremely deadly accidents (e.g. Nigeria).
Multivariate Risk Scores for O&G chains (1970-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI,
Severe O&G chain accidents (1970-2008)
Country aggregates: OECD, EU 27, non-OECD, NIS, Middle East
Risk score components: - probability that at least one severe accident per year - fatality rate per GWeyr - expectation value, i.e. fatalities per year - VaR99, which is the Value at Risk for the 99 th percentile of the severity distribution - CVaR99 is the Conditional Value at Risk that is the expected value of the tail over VaR99, i.e. the expected number of fatalities for such a 1 in 100
Score calculation: - scaling (0-1) - non-centred PCA - rescaling (0-1) of PC1 - with and without WEF Global Competitiveness Index (GCI)
Risk scores for the oil chain are generally higher than for natural gas.
Oil non-OECD has by far the worst performance, which is attributable to several accidents with high death tolls.
Scores with WEF GCI lead to few rank reversals
Refinery Accidents (2000-2008) 10. Juni 2010 PSI,
Worldwide Distribution of Tanker Spills vs Piracy Attacks 10. Juni 2010 PSI,
Geographic locations of 462 oil tanker spills (1970-2008) and 63 piracy attacks (2009).
For accidental oil spills a concentration can be observed in the Northern European Atlantic (mainly coast of Galicia, English Channel), the Eastern Mediterranean, the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, the Persian Gulf, and the Strait of Malacca, Gulf of Thailand and South China Sea.
Piracy attacks took predominantly place in the Gulf of Aden / Red Sea, and to a lesser extent in Southeast Asia and the cost of Somalia.
Conclusions 10. Juni 2010 PSI,
The ENSAD database provides the quantitative basis for comparative risk assessment of severe accidents in the energy sector.
Risk mapping through coupling of ENSAD with GIS allows for the identification of spatial distribution patterns.
Calculation of risk indicators and multivariate risk scores enable comparisons of specific aspects of energy security risks.
Comparative risk assessment is an essential aspect within the context of energy security and comprehensive energy policy formulation.
However, it needs to be pursued along with a range of other factors, such as protection of health, environment and climate, resource saving, affordability, geopolitical dependencies, etc.
Such conflicts, synergies and trade-offs can be systematically analyzed by means of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA).
Thank you for your attention! 10. Juni 2010 PSI, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis http://www.psi.ch/gabe [email_address] In several languages risk often has the double meaning of chance, opportunity” and “danger, loss” Probable origins of risk lie in the Greek word rhiza, meaning “root and/or cliff”, or the Arabic word rizq meaning “what God and fate provide for your life”. In our everyday language we use proverbs such as“Nothing ventured, nothing gained” or “God helps the brave”.