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Russ Johnson - Understanding Disasters: Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster Management

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  • 1. Plenary Session 4 Understanding Disasters: Geospatial Technologies in Risk Reduction and Disaster Management GLOBAL RISK FORUM GRF DAVOS GRF“From Thought to Action”
  • 2. Russ JohnsonDirector of Public SafetyEsri
  • 3. Dr. Joaquin RamirezPrincipal ConsultantDTS Wildfire Knowing the Enemy Geospatially
  • 4. Wendi PedersenGIS Analyst/Rapid Mapping ExpertUNOSAT -United Nations Institute for Training and Research Satellite Analysis for Disaster Monitoring and Response
  • 5. Dr. Heather BellScience AdvisorPacific Disaster Center Geospatial Technologies for Understanding Risk
  • 6. Ryan LanclosEmergency Management Industry ManagerEsriJeff BaranyiSenior Public Safety Solutions EngineerEsri GIS and Disaster Management : “Building a Common Operating Platform”
  • 7. I need a Map.
  • 8. Maps help us relate and understand… …filter away the noise.
  • 9. 2008 VP DebateCity of Houston Tampa Super Bowl Commonwealth Of Kentucky Univ of Alabama
  • 10. BP Oil SpillGolden Guardian Exercise Obama Inauguration Virginia - VIPER
  • 11. Apps help us relate and understand… …filter away the noise.
  • 12. I need knowledge.
  • 13. I need knowledge…• Are we prepared?• Where are we vulnerable?• Can we support damage assessment?• What is the current situation?• What are our partners doing?• Are we talking to the public?
  • 14. Answer the need for knowledge…A Common Operating Platform Supporting the Emergency Management Lifecycle…
  • 15. Empower everyone…Supporting the Mission Planning & Response Recovery Mitigation Data Planning and Field Situational Citizen Management Analysis Mobility Awareness Engagement
  • 16. Incident Command System (ICS)
  • 17. National Response Framework - ESF
  • 18. Mission Specific Maps and Apps Command Operations Logistics PIO …Aligning with EM workflows
  • 19. Common Operating Platform… Logistics Operations Command PIO ICSAlignment National Response Framework ESF 1- 15 Planning & Analysis Existing Systems …that answers the need for knowledge.
  • 20. Empower Everyone… Smart Phones Social Media Tablets Web Sites Platform Desktop Browsers Online …everywhere.
  • 21. Transform information into knowledge to action.
  • 22. GIS for Disaster ManagementCommon Operating Platform • Reference Architecture • Common Repository Tools and Data • Mission Specific Templates • Open and Extensible • Empowers the Organization
  • 23. Operation Scenario • Daily Operations for Preparedness • M 7.7 Earthquake • Multi-Agency Response Commonwealth of Kentucky New Madrid Seismic Zone
  • 24. Emergency Management Roles • Watch Officer • Planning Officer • Assessment Team • PIO • GIS Specialist
  • 25. Data Management• Collect• Manage• Collaborate• Operationalize
  • 26. Planning and Analysis • Vulnerability Analysis • Collaborate • Prepare
  • 27. Field Mobility • Enable Workflows • Align to Mission • Update in Real Time
  • 28. Citizen Engagement• Communicate• Connect• Engage
  • 29. Situational Awareness • Aligned to Organization • Mission Specific Apps • Enhanced Situational Awareness
  • 30. Public Safety Resource CenterTemplates to help you get started • Disaster Management - Common Operational Picture - Damage Assessment - Maps - Flood Planning - Citizen Service Request - Special Events • Fire - Run Book - Station Wall Map - Pre-fire Planning • Humanitarian - OpenStreetMap Editor, Ushahidhi Add-in
  • 31. GIS for Disaster Management Workshop • Tuesday - 6:30pm – 7:15pm Dischma Room • Wednesday - 7:15pm – 8:00pm Dischma Room • Abstract: - Learn best practices and resources to implement GIS in support of disaster management. - Topics will include: - Configure your Flex Viewer for Situational Awareness - Deploy GIS in a mobile environment - Getting Started with ArcGIS Online - Baseline Template resources for common disaster management workflows
  • 32. Summary • Focus on a Common Operating Platform • Empower the Organization • Align with the Mission • Answer the need for Knowledge. Data Planning and Field Situational CitizenManagement Analysis Mobility Awareness Engagement
  • 33. Dr. Joaquin RamerizPrincipal ConsultantDTS Wildfire
  • 34. knowing theenemygeospatiallyNEAR-REALTIME WILDFIRESIMULATIONS TO SUPPORT Dr Joaquin Ramirez DTSWildfire Tecnosylva
  • 35. Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Rapid Response System at NASA/GSFC http://youtu.be/eET7jwJOOqA
  • 36. 750 m€ fire season160.00 0 ha lost
  • 37. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE28/06/2012 11:35
  • 38. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE29/06/2012 12:05 FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARSBURNT AREA: 11.770 ha
  • 39. MODIS SENSOR IMAGERY TERRA SATELLITE30/06/2012 11:10 FIRE: CORTS DE PALLARSBURNT AREA: 24.012 ha (+9.143) FIRE: ANDILLABURNT AREA: 5.371 ha
  • 40. 1 km diameter fire ball
  • 41. http://www.nifc.go v/fireInfo/fireInfo_ statistics.html 12000000 300000 10000000 250000 8000000 200000 firesacres burnt 6000000 150000 4000000 100000 2000000 50000 Fires 0 0 Acres 1960 1964 1966 1968 1970 1974 1976 1978 1980 1984 1986 1988 1990 1994 1996 1998 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 1962 1972 1982 1992 2002
  • 42. Where do we goFire scenarios from 2010 to 2070 (ATSR Fire Atlas based) Krawchuk MA, Moritz MA, Parisien M-A, Van Dorn J, Hayhoe K, 2009. Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire. PLoS ONE 4(4): e5102. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0005102 Climate projections include 2010–2039 (A,), 2040–2069 (B) and 2070–2099 (C).
  • 43. Fire ParadoxThe betterwe arefightingfires, the
  • 44. If you knowyourself andyour enemy,you can win ahundred
  • 45. FB: A YOUNG SCIENCE Harry T. Gisborne Jack S. Barrow Director of the First true Missoulaspecialist in Fire Lab The Mann
  • 46. topographyhttp://goo.gl/amuxP
  • 47. weatherextrhttp://goo.gl/WkiKO
  • 48. fuelsovershttp://goo.gl/WkiKO
  • 49. = extreme behavior fires
  • 50. and art ofWhere isSimgoing Fire it to be in the next hours?When can we expect to stop it?
  • 51. Models are out there Models completed in period 1990-12 Physical 20077 quasi-physical15 empirical5 quasi-empirical11 simulation22 mathematical analogous Andrew L. Sullivan Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990–2007 International Journal of Wildland Fire Volume 18 Number 4 2009 .
  • 52. take simsWe need to from the lab… LANL Coupled Fire/Atmosphere Modeling, FIRETEC http://ees.lanl.gov/ees16/FIRETEC.shtml
  • 53. operationto the personnel…
  • 54. to theIncidentCommand Post …
  • 55. … to supportsafer operations
  • 56. Users expect relevant information
  • 57. Ignition pointsfrom fire firedepartment CADs progres sion
  • 58. Immediateresults where firethe fire willarrive in thenext few hours progres sion
  • 59. risk onvulnerable evacuatassets (homes,power lines, …) ion time
  • 60. Allowspreparedness evacuatplanning forevacuationpurposes ion time
  • 61. www.wildfireanalyst.cOn scene inmediate om a
  • 62. FAST iStock_000000525414
  • 63. INTUITIVE mylesdgrant/5434978427
  • 64. POWERFUL toptechwriter/338573258
  • 65. Users expect easy.
  • 66. WILDFIREMAPS.COM BURNENGINE
  • 67. hoyvinmayvin/516609595
  • 68. BURNE ENGINE RESULTS
  • 69. www.wildfiremaps.comOn scene inmediate a
  • 70. Whitewater-Baldy Complex 100.000 ha Kristen Allis BLM FBAN Type
  • 71. NEWMEXICO 550 km
  • 72. simulating from IR
  • 73. simulating from IR imagery
  • 74. 13.000 ha / 4 La Jonquera hrsc Castellnoualyst Chiefian Firefighters Strategic analysis in 20
  • 75. accurate informatdecission making Wind
  • 76. accurate informatdecission making
  • 77. 60 % resources rbased on the sim
  • 78. Office: +1 905.727.8352 Office: +34 987.849.486 Mobile: +1 970.213.4635 Mobile: +34 696.922.909dtswildfire.com | dtsgis.com
  • 79. More Information www.DTSwildfire.com www.fiRESPONSE.com www.WildfireMaps.com www.WildfireAnalyst.com
  • 80. It pays toknow theenemy
  • 81. not least because atsome time you may havethe opportunity toturn him into afriend Margaret Thatcher
  • 82. Wendi Pedersen GIS Analyst/Rapid Mapping Expert UNOSAT - United Nations Institute for Training and Research
  • 83. Satellite Analysis forDisaster Monitoring and Response Wendi Pedersen 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference 2012, Davos Switzerland
  • 84. 98UNOSAT: A Centre of Excellence for Satellite Analysis UNOSAT is the Operational Satellite Applications Programme of UNITAR – entirely dedicated to researching and applying solutions for satellite derived geospatial information, integrated systems (GIS, navigation, and geo-positioning), and knowledge transfer Launched in 2000 as a project, it has evolved into a mature UN Centre of Excellence with global outreach supported by a network of partners worldwide, UNOSAT means over 1000 maps/analyses since 2000, tasking in over 250 disasters, emergencies & conflicts; professional training; research & methodology CERN support :30,000 core computing cluster , unlimited IT power and data storage
  • 85. TRENDS 99GIS as a resource Illustration Planning and operations (HQ vs. Field ) Up to date and cost effective Web-based, in the cloud, real-timeGIS as an enabling environmentEnables information to flow through emergency cycle phases and clustersReadily available and inter-operable : one image is worth 1000 wordsThe “power of where” and the geospatial dimension as analytical toolA solution capable of generating information management processes
  • 86. UNOSAT - AREAS OF OUTPUT 100Humanitarian Aid and Relief Coordination• Crisis & Situational Mapping• Damage assessmentHuman Security Monitoring Human Rights Safety and SecurityTerritorial Planning and Monitoring Capacity Development & Technical Assistance In-country project development
  • 87. 101UNOSAT rapid mapping by type of emergency 2011 Exercises 7% Floods 29% Complex 36% Landslides Storms Earthquakes 3% 11% 3% Tsunamis Technical/Chemical 4% Volcanic activities 4% 3%
  • 88. 102Pakistan Floods 2010 Inhabitable or destroyed homes Section of Hunza Lake 2010 Damaged infrastructure Economic damage, agriculture loss
  • 89. 103Hunza Landslide: January 4th 2010A massive landslide blocked the Hunza river near Attabad in Gilgit-Baltistancreating a natural dam that retained river water during the glacial melt season. Blocked flow of the Hunza River for 5 months. 16.37km of Karakoram Highway (KKH) Flooded As of 31st May lake size ~ 875 ha
  • 90. 104
  • 91. Hunza Landslide 2010 105
  • 92. 106Flood progression 15th May 2010 21st May 2010 31st May 2010
  • 93. 107Pakistan flooding 2010Natural aspects Event start: End of July Heavy rainfall in northern Pakistan (Monsoon) Flood extents from Swath valley to the Arabic Sea More than 37.000 Km2 of inundated land Precipitated Water > Carrying capacity of Indus RiverOperational aspects Multiscale analysis MODIS, Radar, Optical Different scale products delivered to end users
  • 94. 108
  • 95. 109 Pakistan flooding 2010 – Human impact (18th August) Progress within 10 daysLarge Cities like Jacobabad are affected 120 – 150kmFlood Start ofprognosis Waterfor the next Overflowday Sukkur Barrage causes retaining Flooding further downstream water further upstream
  • 96. 110
  • 97. 111Highly dynamic floodingextent clearly requiredmore rapid and diverseanalysis report productsMultiple single page A4“Situational Update” reportsproduced with satelliteimagery usually acquiredsame dayMore focus on describingcurrent status in near realtime and even trying toestimate flood movement innext 48hrs
  • 98. 1126) Comprehensivetime series of flooddatasets allowedadditional productsFinal flood wateranalysis was conductedin October 2010(Disaster started in lateJuly!)
  • 99. 113
  • 100. Terrasar-X from 21st September 2011 • Multi-temporal analysis; disaster imagery & archive imagery• Use of multiple sensors to get the fullest coverage of affected areas• Deliverables given to end users were all vectors derived from imagery analysis Final Vector output Satellite Image
  • 101. Satellite-derived Information 115 Information from regional-scale images Mekong River (Cambodia), 2008-floodsFlood extent Reference image Disaster image Flood interpretation Credits: UNOSAT; ESA RADARSAT
  • 102. 116
  • 103. 117New Product type requestfrom Local andinternational agencies fora Cumulative MaximumFlood Water ExtentDynamically combined allflood water extents frommultiple dates and locationsinto a single datasetContinuously updated asflood waters moved furthersouth inundating new areasover one month after start ofdisaster event
  • 104. UNOSAT Satellite-derived maximum flood waterextent (July –October 2010) = 37,500km2(controlled for normal pre-flood water extentof rivers, reservoirs, lakes, etc. )Total area of Pakistan = 796,662km2(excluding Jammu Kashmir)
  • 105. 119Conflict between Media, Government and Satellite-BasedEstimates of the Pakistan Flooding Extent: “20% or 1/5th of Pakistan” “As large as England” “approximately 130.000 Km2”Total flood inundated area,within 5 weeks, is according to UNOSATanalysis 4.7% of the country. 20 % of Pakistan 4.7 % Relative comparison of inundated area
  • 106. 120Baseline geographic data combined withsatellite imagery – Pakistan floods 2010 Google UNOSAT Map Maker + Flood Water Data for Analysis Pakistan Impact: Detailed and comprehensive preliminary damage analysis, feedback into DRR
  • 107. 121Pakistan flooding 2010 Human impactGIS Analysis Cross-referencing with other data-sets allows more detailed analysis  beyond natural impact Quantifying the impact on population is still difficult  populated places are available but no accurate pop. Figures Also documenting the impact on infrastructure (bridges, roads, hospitals...)
  • 108. 122Flood extent data sharingSocial media integration, improved understanding, validation
  • 109. Automatic geo-positioning and mapping of photos,videos, text, voice (Android+)Cost-efficient solutions (smart compression)Tested in exercises, used in Haiti, Nigeria, Pakistan,ThailandGPS cameras, mobile phones (Android, iPhone)
  • 110. 124Download the ASIGN Android App www.geo-pictures.eu
  • 111. 125Moving Forward Beyond Disaster ResponseDisaster Risk Reduction capacity buildingIncrease in number of training courses in GIS and disaster risk reduction & response Copenhagen, Nigeria, Costa RicaLand-use analysisEnvironmental impact analysisInfrastructure Data Roads, urban extents, ect. in remote areas where disaster risk and vulnerability is high
  • 112. 126In-country capacity development Activities
  • 113. Strategic territorial planning & management Where are things located ? Where should they be ? How to move them? implementation and good awareness phase analytical phase governance phasePREPAREDNES DIAGNOSTIC PLANNING IMPLEMENTATION AND FOLLOW UP identification andknowledge of assessment of the definition of a local developmentthe territory implementation and evaluation current situation strategy according to the diagnostic(information and monitoring and trends (SWOT plan gathering) analysis) Geographic Information System
  • 114. 128
  • 115. 129
  • 116. 130 Thank you for your kind attention! Questions?Our services www.unitar.org/unosatYour questions wendi.pedersen@unitar.org
  • 117. Dr. Heather Bell Science Advisor Pacific Disaster Center
  • 118. DisasterAWAREFostering Disaster-Resilient Communities throughInformation, Science, Technology and Exchange International Disaster Risk Conference 26-30 August 2012 Davos, Switzerland Presented By: Heather Bell, PhD (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC University of Hawaii: Managing Partnering
  • 119. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment at PDC Security and Sustainability through the Support of Disaster Risk Reduction (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 120. Components of Disaster Hazard Event Characteristics In Exposed Area Level of Exposure/ Vulnerability Affected Area Disruption of Exposed Beyond Elements Ability to Cope Human-Environment Coping Capacity System of Exposed Elements ConnectivityPDC Addresses Each of these Components –Singly and in Combination (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 121. Global Risk Assessment Project National Level Risk Assessment for Globe Data and Results Integrated Into PDC’s Applications Support Familiarization and DM Decision Making Visualize and Interact with Contextual Data at Multiple Levels Make Relevant Contextual Data Easily Available in Multiple Forms© Copyright 2012 - PDC
  • 122. PDC’s DisasterAWARE Integrated Multi- Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning Integrated Modeling Dynamic Data Historical Hazards Assets, Infrastructure and Population Data Automated Reports Information Sharing Mobile Apps © Copyright 2006 - 2012
  • 123. Assessment Approach Multi-Hazard Risk is average of Multi-Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability and Lack of Coping Capacity Multi-Hazard Exposure based on estimated average annual exposure of GDP and Population to EQ, Tsunamis, Floods and Tropical Cyclone Winds Vulnerability and Capacity considered hazard independent Composite Index approach allows drill down into drivers of Hazard Exposure, Vulnerability and Coping Capacity © Copyright 2012 - PDC
  • 124. Global RVA Components Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Coping Exposure • Health Status Capacity • Access to Clean• Raw Exposure Water • Governance • Pop • Access to Info • Economic • GDP • Economic Strength• Relative Constraints • Infrastructure • Marginalization • Comms Exposure • Population • Transport • Pop Pressures • Healthcare • GDP • Environmental • Environmental Stress Strength • Recent Impacts • Displaced Populations (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 125. Global RVA Index Approach MH Exposure Vulnerability Coping CapacityEnvironmental Economic Strength of Infrastructure Strength Strength Government Average Biome Voice and Protection GNI per capita Accountability% Protected Area Marine Reserves per Capita Control of Corruption% Protected Area Terrestrial Rule of Law Government Effectiveness Healthcare Communications Transportation Political StabilityPhysicians per 10,000 Fixed & Mobile phone Airport & Seaport persons subscriptions per 100 Density Nursing & Midwifery persons Road and Railroad per 10,000 persons Secure Internet Servers Density Hospital Beds per per million people 10,000 persons DM Social Media Scale © Copyright 2012 - PDC
  • 126. Risk Component Index: Coping Capacity Sub-Component Index: InfrastructureSub-Index: Health Care Capacity Indicator: Hospital Beds per 10000© Copyright 2012 - PDC
  • 127. Example Scenario
  • 128. What’s Going on?August 27, 2012 (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 129. Of the Countries “Affected” by the Tsunami,Which Might Be Least Capable of Dealing withthe Effects? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 130. Do We Have the Right Resources? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 131. Who Might Be Left Out of Response orRecovery Processes? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 132. Is the Outreach ApproachAppropriate? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 133. What About School BasedCampaigns? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 134. PDC 1305 North Holopono Street, Suite 2, Kihei, Hawaii 96753 http://www.pdc.org, info@pdc.orgFostering Disaster-Resilient Communities Through 1-808-891-0525 - 1-808-891-0526 (Fax)Information, Science, Technology, and Exchange DisasterAWARE Heather Bell, PhD Science Advisor Questions? Editor-in-Chief, Risk, Hazards & Crisis in Public Policy Pacific Disaster Center 808.891.7942 hbell@pdc.org www.pdc.org www.psocommons.org/rhcpp (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC University of Hawaii: Managing Partner
  • 135. (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 136. Might Water Bourne Disease Be Exacerbated? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 137. Is the Population Already Unhealthy? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 138. Can the Health System Likely Handle anEmergency? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 139. What about other Impacts of Disaster? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 140. Do We Have the Right Supplies? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 141. Who Might Be Left out of Response andRecovery Processes? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 142. Is the Outreach Approach Appropriate? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 143. What about School Based Campaigns? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 144. What about Format? (c) Copyright 2006-2012 - PDC
  • 145. THANK YOU !

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