Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen                               Risk of large oil spills – A statistical analysis in ...
Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo, Gulf of Mexico 2010―        Largest accidental oil spill so far―        11 workers killed, 17 ...
Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo, Gulf of Mexico 2010Questions to be answered―Outlier or not?―How much do such single events con...
Context           Comparative risk assessment of energy supply optionsIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012
Comparative Risk Assessment                                            Energy Systems Analysis                            ...
Requirements - approach      Data based where possible – combine with modeling where necessary          – Historical data:...
Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo, Gulf of Mexico 2010Questions to be answered―Outlier or not?―How much do such single events con...
Breakdown of sources  4 infrastructure categories:  - Ship spills  - Storage/refinery  - Pipeline  - Exploration/productio...
Breakdown of sources  Goal: Quantify probability of spills as a function of spill amount  ► expected return frequency of s...
DistributionsRISK =                         Frequency            x               Severity                       Number of ...
Risk: Frequency vs. severity                                                                   Data                       ...
FrequencyIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012               12
Results: Ship Spills                                                      1974 - 1980                                     ...
Results: Ship Spills                                                           1974 - 1980                               1...
Results: Overview                                                Ship & storage/refinery:                                 ...
Risk before and after Deep Water Horizon Compare expected return frequency of the DWH spill before and after the new „data...
Conclusion           Structure of risk varies strongly between infrastructure subcategories:           - Transport/storage...
Thank you for your attention   www.psi.ch/gabeIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012                      20
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Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water Horizon

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Petrissa ECKLE, Peter BURGHERR, Edouard MICHAUX

Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland;

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Risk of large oil spills: A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deep Water Horizon

  1. 1. Wir schaffen Wissen – heute für morgen Risk of large oil spills – A statistical analysis in the aftermath of Deepwater Horizon Petrissa Eckle, Peter Burgherr, Edouard Michaux Paul Scherrer Institute, SwitzerlandIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012
  2. 2. Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo, Gulf of Mexico 2010― Largest accidental oil spill so far― 11 workers killed, 17 injured in explosion― Uninhibited flow for 3 months― 680‘000 t of oil spilled― 14 billion USD in immediate cleanup costs― 30 billion in total so far― Environmental and economic consequences will only become clear over coming yearsIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 2
  3. 3. Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo, Gulf of Mexico 2010Questions to be answered―Outlier or not?―How much do such single events contribute to total?―Higher risk from drilling than other activities (e.g. tanker spills?)IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 3
  4. 4. Context Comparative risk assessment of energy supply optionsIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012
  5. 5. Comparative Risk Assessment Energy Systems Analysis Economy Environment Social Risk of severe accidents, terrorism and critical infrastructure protection Risk indicators: Average fatalities per year Maximum historical accident Expected fatalities per year Exceedance at frequency F Expected fatalities in frequency F accident FatalitiesIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012
  6. 6. Requirements - approach Data based where possible – combine with modeling where necessary – Historical data: Accident database ENSAD (mainly fossil fuels) - comprehensive global coverage of energy related accidents since 1970 – Input from probabilistic models: Nuclear power – Hybrid & expert judgment: New renewables, hydro power, CCS Complete energy chains – resource extraction to waste Exploration Extraction Transport Refining Transport Power/Heating Plant Waste Treatment & Disposal Focus on severe accidents (≥ 5 fatalities, 10 injured, 10.000 t oil spilled..) Top down: start with generic risk distributions – refine where possible Core risk indicators: - impact on human life: fatalities, injured - impact on the environment: oil spills, land contamination (e.g. radiological for nuclear)IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 6
  7. 7. Deepwater Horizon/ Macondo, Gulf of Mexico 2010Questions to be answered―Outlier or not?―How much do such single events contribute to total?―Higher risk from drilling than other activities (e.g. tanker spills?)IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 7
  8. 8. Breakdown of sources 4 infrastructure categories: - Ship spills - Storage/refinery - Pipeline - Exploration/production Number of spills: 1213 Total of oil spilled: 9.8 mio tons Pipelines Storage/Refinery Pipelines Storage/Refinery 870‘000 t 750‘000 t 188 113 Exploration & production 24 Exploration & production 2.2 mio t Ship Ship 888 6.0 mio tAccidental spills > 200 tons, 1974-2010IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 8
  9. 9. Breakdown of sources Goal: Quantify probability of spills as a function of spill amount ► expected return frequency of spill of size x How often can we expect an event like the Deepwater Horizon accident? Number of spills: 1213 Total of oil spilled: 9.8 mio tons Pipelines Storage/Refinery Pipelines Storage/Refinery 870‘000 t 750‘000 t 188 113 Exploration & production 24 Exploration & production 2.2 mio t Ship Ship 888 6.0 mio tAccidental spills > 200 tons, 1974-2010IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 9
  10. 10. DistributionsRISK = Frequency x Severity Number of accidents per year Spill amount per accident – Mean frequency & trends – Fat tailed distribution – Rare, independent events – Measure tail thickness Poisson ► Model: Poisson ► Model: – Empirical distribution – Generalized Pareto (GPD)IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012
  11. 11. Risk: Frequency vs. severity Data Fit: Generalized Pareto (FN-curve = 1-empirical CDF*) (1 – CDF*) Spill amount [tons] *CDF: Cumulated density functionIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 11
  12. 12. FrequencyIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 12
  13. 13. Results: Ship Spills 1974 - 1980 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 Spill amount [tons]IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 15
  14. 14. Results: Ship Spills 1974 - 1980 10 per year 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 0.6 per year Spill amount [tons]IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 16
  15. 15. Results: Overview Ship & storage/refinery: highest freq. for medium severity Exploration/production: Global frequency [1/year] Highest freq. for high severity DWH Largest oil tanker Spill amount [tons]IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 17
  16. 16. Risk before and after Deep Water Horizon Compare expected return frequency of the DWH spill before and after the new „data point“ Global frequency [1/year] 17 years return period* *Uncertainty interval 5-95%: 10-70 yrs 22 years return period Spill amount [tons]IDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 18
  17. 17. Conclusion Structure of risk varies strongly between infrastructure subcategories: - Transport/storage spills dominate small/medium spill risk - Exploration/production: highest potential for very severe accidents Top down risk assessment as a complement to bottom up engineering risk assessment For risk of high severity events – global and long term dataset is essentialIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 19
  18. 18. Thank you for your attention www.psi.ch/gabeIDRC, Davos, August 28, 2012 20

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