A Study for Development of Regional Risk Assessment for Technological Disaster


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A Study for Development of Regional Risk Assessment for Technological Disaster

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A Study for Development of Regional Risk Assessment for Technological Disaster

  1. 1. GRF DAVOS, 2010A Study for Development of Regional Risk Assessment for Technological Disaster<br /> Won K.Kim, PE, MNFPA, MSFPE, MAIChE, MSRA<br /> President of Risk Management Support<br />
  2. 2. Background<br />The numbers of victims from technological disasters have increased continuously since 1900.<br />The types of technological disaster include chemical spill, gas leak, collapse, explosion, fire and transportation accidents.<br />Urban population has also increased continuously in many countries.<br />Many places in big city have hazards for technological disaster.<br />Need to assess the risk of them to manage the risk efficiently.<br />2<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  3. 3. Goals of Study<br />To develop a quantitative risk assessment method for technological risk in urban area.<br />To provide decision making tool in preparing urban development plan<br />To prepare a emergency response plan<br />To provide tools for risk communication with public<br />3<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  4. 4. Regional Risk Assessment Model<br />Classify Risk<br />Investigate Population Density<br />Model Frequency<br />Model Severity<br />Model Mitigation Factor<br />Model Mitigation Factor<br />Calculate Risk Index<br />Present the Risk<br />4<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  5. 5. Risk Classification<br />Technological disaster is represented as men-maid disaster and it is classified in local regulation as; fire, explosion, collapse, transportation accidents, toxic gas release and environmental pollution.<br />In this study collapse, transportation accidents and environmental pollutions are excluded as their risk management approach is different from fire, explosion and toxic gas release. <br />Selected Risk Classification<br />Structural Fire; subway station, railroad station, underground shopping mall<br />Fire & Explosion from Hazardous Materials; city gas pipelines and valve station, LPG station, gas station, tank lorry<br />Toxic Material Release; refrigeration warehouse, water cleaning plant<br />5<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  6. 6. Population Density<br />Population density has to be investigated to estimate the numbers of victims.<br />Based on minimum unit of administrative district.<br />Separately prepared by day time and night time.<br />6<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  7. 7. Frequency Modeling <br />Adjusted mitigation index is calculated by subtracting prevention index from frequency index.<br />Frequency of 1x10-6/yr has an index of 0, which means the chance of occurring is very remote.<br />The average frequency of technological disaster is 5x10-4/yr, and frequency index 500 was given to it.<br />Index 1000 was given to frequency 1x10-1/yr (frequently occurring), 800 to 1x10-2/yr, 600 to 1x10-3/yr 400 to 1x10-4/yr, 200 to 1x10-5/yr accordingly. <br />7<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  8. 8. Example of Frequency Estimation for LPG Station<br />Frequency Index = Initiating Event Index – Mitigating Index<br />Initiating Event Index Estimation = 500 + Classification Factor + Exposure Factor + Unloading Frequency Factor (If the summation is over 1000, then take 1000)<br />Mitigating Index<br />Protection Measure<br />Collision Protection Measure for Tank Lorry<br />Inspection and Test Frequency<br />Exposure to Ignition Sources<br />8<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  9. 9. Example of Frequency Estimation for LPG StationBasic Index Value<br />Median value 500 was taken at 5x10-4/yr.<br />9<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  10. 10. Example of Severity Estimation for LPG Station<br />Severity Index = Index of Casualties (directly calculated numbers of casualties from BLEVE & UVCE) – Mitigating Index<br />Severity of an accident is divided in five categories;<br />Category I ; 1 to 5 injuries (Index of 200)<br />Category II ; 1 to 5 casualties (Index of 400)<br />Category III ; 5 to 50 casualties (Index of 600)<br />Category IV ; 50 to 500 casualties (Index of 800)<br />Category V ; 500 to 1000 casualties (Index of 1000)<br />10<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  11. 11. Example of Severity Estimation for LPG Station<br />Mitigating Index <br />Category I<br />Local Emergency Response Plan<br />Effective Alarm System<br />Training and Drills<br />Category II<br />Valve Closing<br />Protection Measures<br />Fire Department Arrival Time<br />Category III<br />Safety Distance<br />11<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  12. 12. Risk Ranking<br />X-axis represents severity of accident and Y-axis represents frequency of accident. Then, risk is re-categorized into 5 different categories.<br />12<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  13. 13. Example of Regional Risk Presentation<br />13<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  14. 14. Presentation of Regional Risk<br />K-District of Seoul City was selected to assess the risk by a method developed by this study.<br />Disasters from railroad, CNG station, and water cleaning plant were assumed, because there were no such a places and facilities in the selected district. <br />Whole region was divided by 100m grid and the risk was presented based on the grid. <br />Category I represent very low risk, and Category V represent very high risk. <br />Hazardous objects in this district are shown in the table 1.<br />14<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  15. 15. Hazardous Objects and Types of Accident<br />15<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  16. 16. CNG Truck Fire<br />16<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  17. 17. Hazardous Material Train Fire<br />17<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  18. 18. Hazardous Material Train Explosion<br />18<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  19. 19. City Gas Pipeline Fire<br />19<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  20. 20. CNG Station Fire<br />20<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  21. 21. City Gas Valve Station Explosion<br />21<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  22. 22. Gas Station Fire<br />22<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  23. 23. LPG Station Fire<br />23<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  24. 24. Toxic Gas Release from Water Cleaning Plant<br />24<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  25. 25. Toxic Gas Release from Refrigerated Warehouse<br />25<br />Risk Management Support<br />
  26. 26. Conclusion<br />It was convinced that a regional risk assessment can be performed quantitatively through a method developed by this study. <br />The risk assessment result can be used in urban development planning, emergency response planning and execution effectively. <br />To improve the quality of risk assessment and maintain the objectivity of the risk assessment, it is recommended to establish the data-base for input data. <br />This can eventually enable to perform a national wide risk assessment. <br />This data-base can be interfaced with other data-base such as population and building data-bases. <br />It is also recommended to develop integrated software which can do the risk assessment work and make an access to data-base mentioned. <br />Risk can be presented on a GIS map for its convenient usage.<br />26<br />Risk Management Support<br />