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Regional Agricultural Drought Adaptation and Its Policy-driven Forces in Agriculture-pasturage Ecotone of  Northern China
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Regional Agricultural Drought Adaptation and Its Policy-driven Forces in Agriculture-pasturage Ecotone of Northern China

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Regional Agricultural Drought Adaptation and Its Policy-driven Forces in Agriculture-pasturage Ecotone of Northern China

Regional Agricultural Drought Adaptation and Its Policy-driven Forces in Agriculture-pasturage Ecotone of Northern China

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  • 伴随着 2O 世纪下半叶的持续增暖, 全球陆地大部分地区存在干旱化的趋势 ( 图 2) 。不同空间尺度干湿变化的倾向明显不同:在半球尺度,东半球为变干趋势,而西半球反之,为变湿趋势;在大陆尺度上,尤其是非洲大陆和欧亚大陆,干旱化趋势非常显著,其中以非洲大陆最为剧烈。在欧亚大陆的俄罗斯远东、中国华北和东北地区都是干旱化显著的地区。增暖对全球干湿变化有重要影响,除北美大陆外,其余大陆在增暖的作用下其干旱化的强度都有大约 1 ~ 5 个百分点的加强,降水为增加趋势的区域也因增暖而变湿趋势减弱或消失。 全球 5 个大陆除北美大陆外均为变干趋势,而北美大陆为变湿趋势。 1951-2002 全球降水( a )和地表湿润( b )情况变化的空间分布。 a 图红色为减少,绿色为增加; b 图红色为变干,绿色为变湿。
  • 大量的事实表明,中国北方干旱化正在加剧,而且增温显著。图 1 为 1951----2007 年中国区域干湿变化趋势 ( 地表湿润指数 ) 和极端干旱 (Palmer 干旱指数 ) 发生频率变化趋势的空间分布格局。可以看出: 100 。 E 以东地区近 50 年基本为干旱化的趋势 ,显著干旱 ( 红色区域 ) 的地区分布在西北的东部和整个华北地区,东北的东南部也为干旱化显著的地区 ( 图 la) 。这些地区干旱化趋势的产生与降水的持续减少密切相关,而近 3O 年气温的持续上升是这些地区干旱化加剧且范围扩大的另一个重要原因。 对区域平均状况分析发现:西北东部、华北在 2O 世纪 7O 年代末期发生明显的由湿向干的年代际转折性变化,两个地区的干旱化均持续至今,时间接近 3O 年,这个转折性变化应与 1977 / 1978 年的全球大尺度气候背景有关 [1 。与上述两个地区不同,东北地区在近半个世纪却存在 3 个干湿变化的转折点,最近的一个转折点发生在 2O 世纪 9O 年代中期由湿向干的趋势转变,目前这个地区也处于一个干旱的时段,另一个转折点发生在 1965 年和 1983 年。这说明除温度升高加剧了干旱化趋势外,控制东北地区的大尺度气候背景与前述两个地区的大尺度气候背景不同。在 2O 世纪 8O 年代以后,西北东部、华北和东北地区的极端干旱发生的频率 ( 每年 12 个月极端干旱所出现的月数 ) 明显增加,其中东北增加的幅度最大 ( 图 lb) 。值得指出的是,在我国北方发生干旱化最剧烈的地区均位于半干旱地区,而干旱地区降水是增加的。
  • Agriculture-pasturage ecotone has existed for a long time. And its modern position It is in arid and semi-arid climate type regions and fall, just located in the tail-end of monsoon dry , in existence with a lot of land resources ecological security problems, is a weak strip. With the changes in the strength of the southeast monsoon, monsoon sink area is also changing, which has a direct effect on the regional climate changes of precipitation and temperature. In order to adapt the uneven distribution of precipitation in time and space scale and the attendant frequent drought, people in these areas had developed some adaptive models which proved to be successful, that is, the alternative model and the staggered distribution model of agricultural and animal husbandry.
  • The variation of precipitation and other climatic factors played a key role in the alternative of dry farming and animal husbandry development in the region. And some important events also have an close relationship with the 2000-year periodicity fluctuation, such as the rise and fall of material culture of the Holocene in northern China, the migration of economic & culture center, and the alternative of farming and animal husbandry, and so on. According to the historical materials of Ordos region in Inner Mongolia, ,Shi (1989) found that along with the 2000-year variation, there was an obvious alternative development series of agriculture and nomadic cultures, and this was an inevitable result of harmonizing between the precipitation and agricultural and livestock production. For this reason, we could say the alternative arranges of agriculture and livestock production is adaptation to the climatic fluctuation, especially in the rainfall fluctuation.
  • adaptation occurs at different levels —— from national to the local Agriculture-pasturage ecotone in northern China is an eco-sensitive area, also eco-barrier for eastern China, and a conservation area of some major river in northern China. But it has always been severely affected by drought unfortunately. Moreover, unreasonable human activities accelerate the deterioration of ecological environment in the recent decades.
  • Transcript

    • 1. Yanyu YIN School of Geography , Beijing Normal University Key Lab of Regional Geography 2010.05.31 Regional Agricultural Drought Adaptation and Its Policy-driven Forces in Agriculture-pasturage Ecotone of Northern China —— Taking Xinghe County in Inner Mongolia as an Example
    • 2. Contents 1. Introduction 2. The models for drought adaptation formed in the long historical periods in the agriculture-pasturage ecotone 3. The drought adaptation strateg ies adopted yet in agriculture-pasturage ecotone 4. Case study in X inghe C ounty , Inner Mongolia, China 5. Conclusions
    • 3. 1.1 The global climate change unavoidable, and the related drought disasters increasing (Ma Zhuguo, Fu Zongbin,2007) The spatial patterns of variation trends of global precipitation and surface wet index from 1951-2002 , red areas are reduction field and green increase trend in (a) , red means drying , and green wetting in(b).
      • There is a tendency of drought in most parts of the world's land
    • 4.
      • Global warming is inevitable, and the related disasters is increasing in the same time. we must adopt measures to mitigate or adapt the impacts of global warming. For some, it only refers to the feasibility and appropriate adaptation.
      • Adaptation is the most useful and emergent way to coop with the global warming
      • Drought related to the global climate change tends to be more serious and will last longer, which will increase the regional drought risk (Susan Solomon, et al, 2007)
    • 5. (Fu Zongbin,Ma Zhuguo, 2008) 1.2 Aridification in northern China puts forward the urgent need to develop the drought adaptation ability the global climate change has posed Northern China an obvious drought tendency.
    • 6. In the arid and semi-arid climate type areas, Frequent drought, almost once every year. People who live here have developed a successful survival strategies to adapt to the frequent drought. 1.3 the agriculture-pasturage ecotone in northern China (Fu Zongbin,Ma Zhuguo, 2008) Fig the variation the extreme drought events frequency during 1950-2002 Fig the location of agriculture -pasturage ecotone of northern China
    • 7. R researches on the drought adaptation of the drought-prone areas and explore the driving forces background will help to build a better adaptive strategy to coop with the increasingly obvious situation of warming and drying trend in northern China. Of course, drought adaptation is influenced by many factors. This study tries to probe into the problems in policy-driven forces of drought adaptation and takes a pilot study on the policy strategy of drought adaptation in Xinghe County of northern China, in order to provide experience and guidance for Chinese to equip them better to adapt the warmer and dryer climate.
    • 8. 2 . the models for drought adaptation of the agriculture-pasturage ecotone in northern China in historical periods The modern demarcation line of the monsoon region and the non-monsoon region The demarcation would change along with the strength of the monsoon and its impacts. So the precipitation varies a lot in different time. Shi peijun et al(1989) Modern Location covers the ecotone between the farming area of northeast and north China, and pastoral areas of natural grassland ecotone in northwest. Physical conditions in the tail-end of monsoon , 250-300mm, uneven distribution of precipitation in time and space scale With lots of ecological security problems, is a weak strip
    • 9.
        • 2.1 The alternative model for drought adaptation
      Fig alternative development series of agriculture and nomadic cultures in Ordos Shi (1989) found that along with the 2000-year variation, there was an obvious alternative development series of agriculture and nomadic cultures, and this was an inevitable result of harmonizing between the precipitation and agricultural and livestock production.
    • 10. The staggered distribution model means that people could choose the agriculture or livestock production according to the spatial difference of precipitation.
        • 2.2 The staggered distribution model for drought adaptation
      Therefore, the land use patterns takes on a staggered distribution. In summary, the alternative and staggered distribution model of agriculture and livestock production for drought adaptation is the results of people in ancient to adapt to the drought environment. Because of topography, the water was also redistributed in spatial and had great regional disparity. The flat area are often good for farming because of the better moisture condition, while the mountain hilly area was developed as grazing livestock area (Wang,1989).
    • 11. 3. Drought adaptation strategy from national to local in agriculture-pasturage ecotone of northern China after 1978 Drought adaptation objectives Ecological security Production development Prosperous life Measures adopted to achieve the objectives
      • The land use structures
      • The industrial structure
      • The production structure in agriculture
      • The income structure
      Policies established respectively to promote the drought adaptation measures Adjustment on the several aspects The effects of the policies The drought adaptation
    • 12. Ecological security Adjustment on the land use structures from national to provincial
      • Green for gain
      Eco-environment improved objectives measures policies effects Production development Adjustment on the industrial structures from national to provincial
      • Energy industry development
      • the energy industry centre shift
      Economy development Adjustment on the production structures from provincial to county
      • Scale planting
      • retreatment
      Increasing in grain yield Prosperous life Adjustment on the income structures from county to household
      • Household contract responsibly system with remuneration linked to output
      • Industrialized agriculture
      Increase in household income
    • 13. 4 . Case study: agricultural drought adaptation policy-driven analysis in Xinghe county Xinghe county is located in the middle of agriculture-pasturage ecotone of northern C hina, is a typical rain-fed agricultural areas with more than 90% of its arable land are dry land .
    • 14.
      • Drought disaster is the most serious natural disaster to agriculture and animal husbandry of Xinghe County .
      • In 1970s-1980s, large areas of deforestation and land reclamation led to gradual deterioration of ecological environment and according to statistics, Xinghe County has arable land 115,800 ha, of which there is 36,800 ha land in 6 ~ 15 °slope, 19,300 ha in 16 ~ 25 °slope, 6,200 ha in 25 °slope and above. Most of these slope lands are infertility and severely erosion by wind and water which lead to low and unstable grain yield, only 45 kg per mu.
      • In 1970s-1980s, large areas of deforestation and land reclamation led to gradual deterioration of ecological environment.
      • But the region is the very important ecological barriers for the mega city —— Beijing & Tianjin.
      The main reason for almost all the problems is the unreasonable land use. So the possible way to solve these questions is to adjust the land use structure.
    • 15.
      • “ Green for gain”:return the inappropriate arable land to forest or grass, change the traditional land use structure, most of which are arable land, and maintain the appropriate land use structure.
      • adjust the industrial structure, increase the proportion of the second and tertiary industrial ,and when it came to the primary industrial structure, the increased the proportion of animal husbandry industry, changed grain dominated into animal husbandry dominate and improve comparison profits
      • Planting more drought-resist crops with higher production , such as potato, and has succeeded in trying plant corn with the help of membrane ,and taking the potatoes as the leading industry of the country
      • Supply chances for migrant laborers,and increasingly diversifying income sources of farmers, increasing income diversity of household, making up the loss of income in agriculture caused by drought through other income so as to meet situation of drought region better
      the adjustment of the industrial structure the adjustment of the planting structure
    • 16. Land use structure adjustment Ecological status markedly improved Liberate the labor force engaged in agricultural production Industrial structure adjustment Planting structure adjustment Income structure adjustment Increase the income of household Increase the yield of the crop Decrease the drought vulnerability and the loss due to drought There are complex interactions between those drought adaptation strategies and even the effects of theirs. It is hard to identify the contribution to the drought adaptation on earth.
    • 17. 4 . conclusion
      • The alternative model and the staggered distribution model of agricultural and animal husbandry proved to be successful in the region, and they are the results of people in ancient to adapt to the drought environment.
      • With the objectives of sustainable development, strategies for drought adaptation in the area included the adjustment of land use structure, industrial structure, crop planting structure and the income structure. Sometimes, the adjustment on land use structure played a more important role to promote the drought adaptation.
      This paper Summarize the models of drought adaptation from the past experiences in the drought-prone area ——the agriculture-pasturage ecotone of northern china , and also the current situation of the drought adaptation statue in the region. Several conclusions are put forward: The conclusion would be helpful to build a better adaptive strategy to coop with the increasingly obvious situation of warming and drying trend in northern China and the region in face of the same situation.
    • 18.