Refinement of regionally modeled coastal zone population data … …  enabling more accurate vulnerability and exposure asses...
Outline <ul><li>Societal risk assessment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exposure and vulnerability mapping </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><...
Societal Risk Assessment <ul><li>Exposure and vulnerability mapping </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Integration of all kinds of spat...
Societal Risk Assessment <ul><li>‘ Hazards Risk ’ represents a cumulative score based on risk of cyclones, flooding, lands...
Societal Risk Assessment <ul><li>Combination of  population data  with  elevation data … </li></ul><ul><li>… for assessing...
Societal Risk Assessment 06/09/10
Societal Risk Assessment 06/09/10 Around  10 % of the world’s population (i.e. more than 600 million people) live in a  lo...
Societal Risk Assessment 06/09/10 Globally, the  population density in the coastal zone (175 persons/km²) is  much higher ...
Societal Risk Assessment http://www.gitews.de 06/09/10
Concept of Disaster Management “ The Global Earth Observation System of Systems [GEOSS] is  integrate Earth observations w...
Concept of Disaster Management [Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA (2005) The life cycle of disasters.  www.fema.gov...
Concept of Disaster Management [Jon Stewart, Comedy Central’s Daily show, Oct 2005] Commenting on  FEMA's controversial re...
Disaster management – vulnerability concept 06/09/10
Disaster management – vulnerability concept <ul><li>R = {H} x {V} </li></ul><ul><li>Risk  (R) as a complex functional rela...
Broad-scale approaches to population distribution modeling <ul><li>Gridded Population of the World (GPW) </li></ul><ul><ul...
Broad-scale approaches to population distribution modeling <ul><li>Gridded Population of the World (GPW) </li></ul><ul><ul...
New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>Overlay of three different data sets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Chart of ...
New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>SRTM Water Body data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Taken as basis </li></ul></ul><ul...
New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>1 arc sec product </li></ul><ul><li>GRUMP coastlines </li></ul>Madagascar No...
New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>1 arc sec product </li></ul><ul><li>GRUMP coastlines </li></ul>Madagascar No...
New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>1 arc sec product </li></ul><ul><li>GRUMP coastlines </li></ul>Java West
Exposure and vulnerability mapping 06/09/10
Conclusions and outlook <ul><li>Issues of coastal zone population modeling on a global scale </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low-ele...
Conclusions and outlook <ul><li>Next steps </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Integration of the current  GRUMP  land-sea mask with the...
www.earthzine.or g Observing the Oceans Theme Issue Q2/2010 IEEE Committee on Earth Observation NASA National Aeronautics ...
Christoph Aubrecht Thank you for your attention! Christoph Aubrecht Foresight & Policy Development Department Regional and...
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Refinement of regionally modeled coastal zone population data enabling more accurate vulnerability and exposure assessments

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Aubrecht, Christoph
AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH

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  • Also the pop. increase is highest in coastal zones
  • Refinement of regionally modeled coastal zone population data enabling more accurate vulnerability and exposure assessments

    1. 1. Refinement of regionally modeled coastal zone population data … … enabling more accurate vulnerability and exposure assessments C. Aubrecht , M. Levy, A. de Sherbinin, G. Yetman, M. Jaiteh, K. Steinnocher, S. Metzler IDRC Davos 2010 | International Disaster and Risk Conference Davos, Switzerland | June 1, 2010
    2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Societal risk assessment </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exposure and vulnerability mapping </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High population density in the LECZ </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broad-scale approaches to pop. distribution modeling </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gridded Population of the World (GPW) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project ( GRUMP ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>African Population Database </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Landscan </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Refinement of population data in coastal zones </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Using new consistent high resolution coastal zone delineation data provided by ISciences </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Reallocation of population in current pop. data (GRUMP) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Better accuracy for vulnerability mapping (sea level rise) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Outlook </li></ul>06/09/10
    3. 3. Societal Risk Assessment <ul><li>Exposure and vulnerability mapping </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Integration of all kinds of spatial and space-related data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Multi Criteria Analysis </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Population data forms the essential part! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Use of global and regional demographic data sets is important, in particular when data availability and consistency is a problem! </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>E.g. use of GRUMP, African Population Database, etc. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Need for population distribution refinement in coastal areas! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Use of new ISciences coastlines for population reallocation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More accurate delineation of potential populated areas </li></ul></ul>06/09/10
    4. 4. Societal Risk Assessment <ul><li>‘ Hazards Risk ’ represents a cumulative score based on risk of cyclones, flooding, landslides and drought ( de Sherbinin et al., 2007 ) </li></ul>06/09/10
    5. 5. Societal Risk Assessment <ul><li>Combination of population data with elevation data … </li></ul><ul><li>… for assessing population exposure in low elevation coastal zones </li></ul>06/09/10 SRTM 90m horizontal res. GPW, GRUMP
    6. 6. Societal Risk Assessment 06/09/10
    7. 7. Societal Risk Assessment 06/09/10 Around 10 % of the world’s population (i.e. more than 600 million people) live in a low elevation coastal zone (LECZ) of less than 10 m above sea level McGranahan et al. (2006, 2007) based on population data for the year 2000
    8. 8. Societal Risk Assessment 06/09/10 Globally, the population density in the coastal zone (175 persons/km²) is much higher than for any other ecosystem Levy (2009), McGranahan et al. (2005) Millennium Ecosystem Assessment System Overall Urban Rural (persons per sq. km.) Coastal zone 175 1,119 69 Cultivated 119 793 70 Dryland 36 749 20 Forest 27 478 18 Inland Water 51 826 25 Mountain 36 636 26 World 46 770 25
    9. 9. Societal Risk Assessment http://www.gitews.de 06/09/10
    10. 10. Concept of Disaster Management “ The Global Earth Observation System of Systems [GEOSS] is integrate Earth observations with other information to help planners reduce vulnerability , strengthen preparedness and early-warning measures and, after disaster strikes, rebuild housing and infrastructure in ways that limit future risks .” [Group on Earth Observations GEO - GEOSS Disasters Theme] 06/09/10
    11. 11. Concept of Disaster Management [Federal Emergency Management Agency FEMA (2005) The life cycle of disasters. www.fema.gov .] 06/09/10
    12. 12. Concept of Disaster Management [Jon Stewart, Comedy Central’s Daily show, Oct 2005] Commenting on FEMA's controversial response to Katrina , Jon Stewart said, &quot;What should FEMA have done? Perhaps the answer can be found on their website…&quot; 06/09/10 &quot;This chart, clearly depicting the agencies responsibilities in the event of a disaster … It begins with a response to a disaster, leads to recovery , mitigation , risk reduction , prevention , preparedness … (dramatic pause) and ends up BACK IN DISASTER !“ &quot;In truth, FEMA did exactly what they said they were going to do.&quot;
    13. 13. Disaster management – vulnerability concept 06/09/10
    14. 14. Disaster management – vulnerability concept <ul><li>R = {H} x {V} </li></ul><ul><li>Risk (R) as a complex functional relationship of hazard (H) and vulnerability (V) </li></ul><ul><li>V = f (E, CC, SR, I) </li></ul><ul><li>where the vulnerability of a system (V) is a function (f) of </li></ul><ul><li>E … being the exposure of the system, </li></ul><ul><li>CC … being the initial coping capacity of the system, </li></ul><ul><li>SR … being the social response of the system (including early warning, public awareness etc.), and </li></ul><ul><li>I … being a fuzzy term considering the various interrelations of vulnerability factors </li></ul>06/09/10
    15. 15. Broad-scale approaches to population distribution modeling <ul><li>Gridded Population of the World (GPW) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Demography Project ( Tobler et al. 1997 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Currently GPWv3 (e.g. Deichmann et al. 2001 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GPW Future Estimates ( Balk et al. 2005 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2.5 arc-min . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gridded Population of the World with Urban Reallocation (e.g. Balk 2009 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>30 arc-sec. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Definition of what makes an area ‘ urban ’? ( UN Urbanization Prospects 2006 ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Identifies each country’s definition of the term ‘urban’, whereas criteria include a variety of population size or density thresholds associated with administrative areas , capital cities , and combinations thereof </li></ul></ul>06/09/10
    16. 16. Broad-scale approaches to population distribution modeling <ul><li>Gridded Population of the World (GPW) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Demography Project ( Tobler et al. 1997 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Currently GPWv3 (e.g. Deichmann et al. 2001 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>GPW Future Estimates ( Balk et al. 2005 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>2.5 arc-min . </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gridded Population of the World with Urban Reallocation (e.g. Balk 2009 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>30 arc-sec. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Accessibility indicators applied to pop. distribution and reallocation models </li></ul><ul><ul><li>African Population Database (v4) ( Deichmann 1998 , Nelson 2004 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>also done for Asia and Latin America ( Deichmann 1996 ) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Landscan ( Dobson 2000, Bhaduri et al. 2007 ) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Represents ambient pop. instead nighttime census resident pop. </li></ul></ul>06/09/10
    17. 17. New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>Overlay of three different data sets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Digital Chart of the World in cyan </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>World Vector Shoreline (NOAA) in red </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Global Coastline v1 (ISciences), 1 arc second, in yellow </li></ul></ul>
    18. 18. New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>SRTM Water Body data </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Taken as basis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Data voids! </li></ul></ul>
    19. 19. New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>1 arc sec product </li></ul><ul><li>GRUMP coastlines </li></ul>Madagascar North
    20. 20. New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>1 arc sec product </li></ul><ul><li>GRUMP coastlines </li></ul>Madagascar North Maledives North
    21. 21. New ISciences coastline data 06/09/10 <ul><li>1 arc sec product </li></ul><ul><li>GRUMP coastlines </li></ul>Java West
    22. 22. Exposure and vulnerability mapping 06/09/10
    23. 23. Conclusions and outlook <ul><li>Issues of coastal zone population modeling on a global scale </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Low-elevation land areas are particularly exposed to rising sea level and extreme events such as tsunamis and hurricanes </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Broad-scale population data sets </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GPW, GRUMP, African Population Database, Landscan … </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>With regard to social vulnerability and risk analyses imprecise coastal zone delineation can result in population being distributed to areas which are in fact located below sea level or on the other hand in populations being shifted upcountry hence leaving the immediate coastal zone unpopulated </li></ul></ul><ul><li>ISciences Global Coastline v1 </li></ul>06/09/10
    24. 24. Conclusions and outlook <ul><li>Next steps </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Integration of the current GRUMP land-sea mask with the new ISciences Coastline data </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Spatial reallocation of population to the resulting newly derived spatial reference units </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Accurate assessment of affected population in the context of elevation related risk assessments (e.g. sea level rise) </li></ul>06/09/10
    25. 25. www.earthzine.or g Observing the Oceans Theme Issue Q2/2010 IEEE Committee on Earth Observation NASA National Aeronautics & Space Administration EuroGEOSS South Africa Dept. of Science & Technology Q1 – Earth Information Systems Q3 – Global Human Health Q4 – Ecosystems Christoph Aubrecht Deputy Editor in Chief [email_address]
    26. 26. Christoph Aubrecht Thank you for your attention! Christoph Aubrecht Foresight & Policy Development Department Regional and Infrastructure Policy AIT Austrian Institute of Technology GmbH Donau-City-Straße 1 | 1220 Vienna | Austria T +43(0) 50550-4522 | F +43(0) 50550-4599 [email_address] | http://www.ait.ac.at http://homepage.univie.ac.at/christoph.aubrecht

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