Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in rural communities of the Peruvian Andes

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Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in rural communities of the Peruvian Andes

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Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in rural communities of the Peruvian Andes

  1. 1. Climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies in rural communities of the Peruvian Andes Lenkiza Angulo, Gilberto Romero, Alfonso Díaz, Javier Monroe, Christine Jurt, Christian Huggel , Nicole Clot, Janine Kuriger, Sebastian Eugster
  2. 2. The recent example of flood and debris flow disasters in Cusco in Jan 2010 Disasters in the Andes Are these disasters a consequence of, or related to, ongoing climate change?
  3. 3. Glaciers as among the most visible indicators of climate change Glaciers and climate change W. Haeberli Direct impact on water resources (especially during dry season)
  4. 4. Glacial lake outburst flood in April 2010 Thousands of people killed in similar event in the past Disasters in the Andes C. Portocarrero
  5. 5. <ul><li>Prevention… </li></ul><ul><li>Deficiencies of prevention of present-day disasters </li></ul><ul><li>How to prevent and adapt to changing risks in the future? </li></ul>Disasters in the Andes
  6. 6. Climate Change Adaptation Programme Peru PACC A Peruvian – Swiss Programme 2008 - 2011 Global – local: A fundamental challenge for climate change adaptation
  7. 7. Lines of activities: RESULT 1 ANALYZE VULNERABILITIES RESULT 2 MONITOR AND INFORM RESULT 3 ACT RESULT 4 LEARN AND INTERACT Thematic lines: WATER RESOURCES FOOD SECURITY DISASTERS
  8. 8. RESULT 4 LEARN AND INTERACT Lines of activities: RESULT 1 ANALYZE VULNERABILITIES RESULT 2 MONITOR AND INFORM RESULT 3 ACT Thematic lines: WATER RESOURCES FOOD SECURITY DISASTERS
  9. 9. <ul><li>Ground based meteorological stations </li></ul><ul><li>Satellite precipitation data </li></ul><ul><li>Re-analysis data (~1950 to present) </li></ul>Climate data – building on a solid ground
  10. 10. <ul><li>Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present </li></ul><ul><li>Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI) </li></ul>Disaster inventory data Disasters 1971-1980 Cusco, on the level of Distritos
  11. 11. <ul><li>Andes-wide: DESINVENTAR: 1970 to present </li></ul><ul><li>Nation-wide: SINPAD (INDECI) </li></ul><ul><li>=> Consistency of documentation is critical </li></ul>Disaster inventory data Disasters 2001-2008 Cusco, on the level of Distritos
  12. 12. Climate - disasters Heavy precipitation and floods in Cusco, January 2010 Daily max. precip: 46 mm Monthly accumulated rainfall: 255 mm >23,000 people affected, >4,500 houses destroyed
  13. 13. Climate - disasters Trends in extreme rainfall events? The 30 largest rainfall event in Cusco for 1965-2010 <ul><li>Deriving trends in extreme events is tricky and complex </li></ul><ul><li>Establish relation with climate change even more complex </li></ul>Feb rainfall distribution, Cusco, 1971-2009
  14. 14. Climate - disasters <ul><li>Climate indices: </li></ul><ul><li>Max./Min. temperatures (TX90p, TN10p) </li></ul><ul><li>Strong rainfall events (R95p, R99p) </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>Do indices correspond well with observed disasters ? Do indices represent well conditions that pose risks to local communities ? EGEMSA/RGSL F. Miñan
  15. 15. Regional and local scientific climate and climate impact studies Social local studies, local perception, vulnerable social groups, political context Identification, selection and implementation of adaptation measures/projects
  16. 16. Integration <ul><li>Possible approaches: </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment of the (%) rate of projected change per sector </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability assessment based on indices </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluation of adaptation deficits and barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation cost </li></ul><ul><li>Risk analysis </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>
  17. 17. Local project areas Cusco - Huacrahuacho Apurímac - Mollebamba 3700 – 4700 m asl 3000 – 5200 m asl Risks from: drought, cold spells/snow, hail Risks from: drought, cold spells/snow, landslides, floods
  18. 18. Adaptation measures / projects <ul><li>e.g. </li></ul><ul><li>Test and implementation of more drought resistant crops </li></ul><ul><li>More efficient irrigation systems </li></ul><ul><li>Landslide and flood early warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>Drought / cold spell early warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>
  19. 19. <ul><li>CCA and DRR </li></ul><ul><li>Where are the respective competences, how to best join them? </li></ul><ul><li>Corrective risk management => existing risks </li></ul><ul><li>Prospective risk management => future risks </li></ul><ul><li>Reactive risk management => residual risks </li></ul>
  20. 20. Some experiences and lessons learned <ul><li>Cross-sector effects </li></ul><ul><li>Integration </li></ul><ul><li>Social and environmental sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>Transfer science – adaptation implementation </li></ul><ul><li>Phase shifting </li></ul><ul><li>Robust, adjustable adaptation measures </li></ul>
  21. 21. Some experiences and lessons learned <ul><li>Cross-sector effects </li></ul><ul><li>Integration </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>Transfer science – adaptation implementation </li></ul><ul><li>Temporal offsets </li></ul><ul><li>Robust, adjustable adaptation measures </li></ul>Thanks for your attention !
  22. 22. The recent example of flood and debris flow disasters in Jan 2010 Disasters in the Andes

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