Peijun Shi - Global Risks – An Integrated Governance Approach of ChinaPresentation Transcript
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"26-30 August 2012Davos, Switzerland Global Risks – An Integrated Governance Approach of China Peijun Shi State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, P.R.China
Contents1 Global Impact of Large-scale Disaster2 Chinese Paradigm of Integrated LSD Risk Governance3 Discussions
1 Global Impact of Large-scale Disasters
Japans earthquake and tsunami disaster 2005 U.S. Hurricane Katrina (1300 death) in 2011 (15,000 deaths)2004 Indian Ocean earthquake - tsunami Myanmar typhoon disaster in 2008 (275,000 dead) (70,000 deaths)
Global Network of Large-Scale Disaster Impact Politics k Pr or od tw uc ne ti n on so ai ch Li ai ns Society Economy Catastrophe em st Su sy pp ly al ic ch og ai ol ns Ec Geography
Hazard itself is local, but the impact of disaster is global. - Volcanic Activity in Iceland Time: April 14, 2010 Strength: 20 to 40 years Impact: More than 60,000 flights were canceled, millions of people affected, Direct loss of 800 million Euros; Indirect loss of billions of USD per day by logistic industry (IATA).
Air transportation - a central part of globalization World flight route distribution
Land contamination Declined Decrease of marine bio Damage to ocean marine Water water resources Damage to aquaculture contamination terrestrial system quality Damage to Housing Damage to Animal variation road & collapse reservoir & Damage to regional & bridge dam Vegetation global ocean ecological contamination system Atmospheric Structural damage pollution Nuclear substance leakage Damage to Collapse Human agricultural ecological casualty Explosion of system Damage to nuclear power Tsunami Earthquake Impact on plant terrestrial system human health Housing collapse Landside Social panic Social Damage to coastal Damage to supply embankment chains system instability Impact on power supply Damage to social Damage to service system production system Damage to industrial production system Damage to lifeline system Impact on local economy and world economyEarthquake - Tsunami Disaster Chain of Japan in 2011
Impact of the earthquake on the Sino-Japanese trade Impact Percentage of Commodity duration impact (%) (month) maximal averageFish and crustaceans, molluscs and other aquatic invertebrates. 1 93.3 46.7Coffee, tea, mate and spices. 10 84.6 55.3Products of the milling industry; malt; starches; inulin; wheat gluten. 6 96.9 50.2Sugars and sugar confectionery. 8 76.3 43.2Cocoa and cocoa preparations. 4 99.6 82.1Preparations of cereals, flour, starch or milk; pastry cooks products. 10 99.0 81.1Miscellaneous edible preparations. 3 46.0 32.7Beverages, spirits and vinegar. 11 94.3 66.1Residues and waste from the food industries; prepared animal fodder. 6 100.0 60.6Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material; recovered (waste 6 48.2 24.6and scrap) paper or paperboard.Paper and paperboard; articles of paper pulp, of paper or of 1 21.6 18.2paperboard.Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or similar materials. 3 46.0 10.0Nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances. 12 54.7 38.6Vehicles other than railway or tramway rolling-stock, and parts and 4 47.6 18.6accessories thereof.
Global impacts of Large-scale Disaster(LSD)Globalization of LSD impact is mainly shown in the following three aspects：The importance of a LSD-hit regions in the global economic- society and ecological system, the global networks of transport, communication and internet, the global production chains and supply chains determines the range.
2 Chinese Paradigm of Integrated LSD Risk Governance
Disaster System (DS) Environments (E) Hazards (H) Socio-economic system (S) DS=E∩H∩S
Atlas of China Natural Disaster (1992) 13
Atlas of Natural Disaster System of China (2003) 14
Atlas of Natural Disaster Risk Atlas of China (2010) 15
Integrated Nature hazard Risk of China
2.1 The Paradigm of IRG - -Stakeholders Mode of Disaster Risk Reduction Governments Community Institutes Family Place Local Stakeholders Regional Global Integration Coordination Actions Cooperation Construction CommunicationGovernment: Development and Disaster Reduction (Governance)Community: Safety Construction (Legislation)Institute: Risk Transformation (Mechanism)Family: Risk Awareness (Education)
Four Dimensional Paradigm of IRG System of systems, Integration of Integrations in transition-in and transition-out of IRG Multi-action (Coordination) System for Multi-stakeholder, Multi-action, Structural Multi-system and Multi-phase Non-structural Multi-system (Optimization) systems C1 Individual Household Institute Community Before Government Multi-stakeholder (Cooperation) Integration for C2 Cooperation , During C3 Coordination , After Integration andMulti-phase (Integration) C1: Construction Opimization modes C2: Communication C3: Clarification
Integrated risk governance and optimizing mode of China Security Disaster Construction PreparednessDisaster Structure Function Emergency Reconstruction Emergency Relief Optimization Optimization Risk Recovery Governance
Four principles for integrated risk governance First, regional planning should be based on the spatial distribution of natural hazards as well as the carrying capacity of regional resources and environment. Second, the world should be increased the prevention capacity of infrastructures to hazards. The ideal situation would be no loss for small disasters, acceptable losses for moderate disasters, casualty under control for big disasters, while being able to recover from large-scale disasters. Third, a complete catastrophe risk transfer scheme ought to be established. Infrastructures and housings should be insured against catastrophe disasters . The last, the national integrated risk governance system should be established, with its integrated structural and functional system,With a consilience system . 20
2.2 Top-down Model Nation-wide Paradigm ofIntegrated LSD Risk Governance in China
The Nation-wide Paradigm of Integrated LSD Risk Governance in China (Top-down) Circular Economy Saving Environment Resources Friendship Sustainability Green Risk Economy Governance Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction and Development 22
Chinese Paradigm for Integrated LSD Risk Governance (Top-down model) Weak social foundation Sa r fe fe ty ns co ra ns T tr k uc is ti R on Active y participation of the nc R ec e whole nation’s people rg ov e er m y E Firmly Strengthened Intensive efforts of Central Strong support of political government finance people’s army national power foundation foundation P n re io p ct ar ru ed Correct guidance st n on es E of media opinion ec s m er R ge f nc l ie y re m er an st ag a em is D en t Profound culture foundation Structure of Foundation of Structure connection of Content connection of integrated governance national governance integrated governance national governance Function of Content of Function connection of Foundation connection integrated governance national governance integrated governance of national governance
2.3 Bottom-up Model The Community Paradigm ofIntegrated LSD Risk Governance in China
The Community Paradigm of Integrated LSD Risk Governance in China (bottom-up model) Integrated Disaster Risk Reduction and New Development
Safety Land Planning Sa fe er ty sf co r an ns T tr k uc is ti R on cy Safety Level R n ec ge ov er er m y E Industry Carrying Relief Reserve Local government Re-PlanningAdaptation Capacity P n re io p ct ar ru ed st n on es E ec s m R er Warning System ge f nc l ie y re m er an t ag as em is D en t Risk Awareness Structure of Foundation of Structure connection of Content connection of integrated governance national governance integrated governance national governance Function of Content of Function connection of Foundation connection integrated governance national governance integrated governance of national governanceChinese Paradigm for Integrated LSD Risk (bottom-up model)
2.4 Consilience Model for LSDGovernance with Integrated the Top- down and Bottom-up Actions
Consilience Model for LSD Governance Integreted System Cooperation Coordination Communication Construction Consilience Economy Culture Politics Society Extraction Government Institute Interprise IndividualNation Planning State-owned Age City Finance Community Middle-Ager Province Professional Private Youth County Civil Joint Venture Children
Integrated risk governance strategies based on the consilience model From governments, globally, give full play to the rule of the United Nations, establish the global LSD governance partnership based on the current UN-ISDR framework. From institutes, strengthen the in-depth studies of LSD, such as predicting, forecasting and early warning, improving the information service system and developing different engineering and non- engineering technologies for LSD governance From enterprises ,should actively participate in LSD insurance, scientifically define acceptable LSD risk, controllable LSD risk and proportion of LSD risk to be transferred. From individual ,completely enhance the consciousness for disaster prevention and reduction, master basic common knowledge for disaster prevention and disaster escape skills, completely cultivate the safety culture and systematically improve the self-rescuing and mutual-rescuing capacity and level.
Global Impact of Large-scale Disaster The global impacts of LSD are mainly represented in the impact on global networks such as transport, communication and internet, the impact on production chains and supply chains, and the impact on earth ecological system. Different countries’ practices of disaster response indicate that adequately mobilizing the initiatives of LSD risk governance can systematically increase the LSD coping capacity. With the global impact of LSD, we must give full play to the role of the United Nations, governments of countries and regions, enterprises, and individuals. For the in-depth analysis of LSD impacts and the establishment of LSD risk governance paradigm, it is necessary to learn from the successes and failures in response to LSDs.
A Chinese Way of Thinking for Dealing with integrated LSD risk governance 天地人和(Nature, Living environment and People) Better understanding the relationship among three components in the social-ecosystem （Nature, Living environment and People) Emphasis of their interaction and processes. 天人合一(Harmony between nature and people) Changes both in Nature and human society (People) must be coordinated with each other in spatial-temporal scale and magnitude. Emphasis of speed of development
How do we transform from vulnerability country and region to resillence country and region of LSD risk in the worlid ? Increasing capabality of cliamate change adaptation Strong Adaptation it e Gl dive rs at ob rs ve im y al it di l cl d Fu ize cl y n tim cti a im ob on at op Gl e pe e tur rfe uc cte Str d Spatial Scale Temporal Scale (global,regional,local) (thousands,hundreds,decades) De ce c re en a se si l i Re Action Dimension Vu ln se e ra re a (economy,politics,culture,society） bili Inc ty Increasing capability of Increasing capability Consilence enhanced disaster reduction by of coping with LSD science and technology Global climate diversity Global integrated risk governance paradigm
How do we transform from vulnerability country andregion to resillence country and region of LSD riskin the world ?First, we shall establish the “Global CatastrophicGovernance Foundation” to fully utilize the leading functionof the United Nations and national governments, extensivelymobilize forces of enterprises and societies, and completelyincrease the efficiency and effectiveness of the United Nations’international disaster reduction activities and global LSD riskgovernance capability.Second, we will establish the “global greendevelopment union” to perfect “blue countermeasures”and “green countermeasures” for adapting to climate diversity,and equally treat “emission reductions” and “foreign exchangeearnings increases” as well as a “low-emission carbon economy”and “high-sink carbon economy”.
How do we transform from vulnerability country andregion to resillence country and region of LSD riskin the worlid ?Finally, we aim to establish a “global disaster riskeducation and research network” to integrate relateddatabases set up by relevant organizations of the United Nations,national governments, transnational insurance enterprises,scientific research institutes, institutions of higher learning andsocial agencies..