Steps on the characterization and treatment of urban technological risk in Merida city (Venezuela)

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Steps on the characterization and treatment of urban technological risk in Merida city (Venezuela)

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Steps on the characterization and treatment of urban technological risk in Merida city (Venezuela)

  1. 1. Steps on the characterization and treatment of urban technological risk in Merida city (Venezuela). Alejandro Linayo Disaster Risk Management Research Center . CIGIR Latin-American Research Network on Disaster Reduction LARED Mérida - Venezuela INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  2. 2. • Seismic Risk • Hydrological Risk • Geologycal Risk • Technological Risk Most important urban disaster risk scenarios INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  3. 3. 16 1 10 14 38 123 204 674 1746 3335 0 5 0 0 10 0 0 15 0 0 20 0 0 25 0 0 30 0 0 35 0 0 a n t e s 1 9 0 0 1 9 0 0 - 1 9 1 2 1 9 1 3 - 1 9 2 2 1 9 2 3 - 1 9 3 2 1 9 3 3 - 1 9 4 2 1 9 4 3 - 1 9 5 2 1 9 5 3 - 1 9 6 2 1 9 6 3 - 1 9 7 2 1 9 7 3 - 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 - 1 9 9 2 D EC A D A S Fuente: “Análisis del Riesgo en Instalaciones Industriales”; Casal et all, 2001 INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  4. 4. Step one: Technological Risk Urban spaces Step two: Urban spaces Technological Risk Step three: Urbano spaces Technologycal Risk EVOLUTION OF URBAN TECHNOLOGICAL RISK APPROACH: INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  5. 5. Step one: Technological Risk Urban spaces Step two: Urban spaces Technological Risk Step three: Urbano spaces Technologycal Risk EVOLUTION OF URBAN TECHNOLOGICAL RISK APPROACH: INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  6. 6. Fuente: archivo fotográfico del profesor Julio Portillo Rosales) On November 13th 1939 an Oil refinery fire destroys the town of Lagunillas, in the east side of Maracaibo Lake - Venezuela, killing between 2000 and 4000 personas INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  7. 7. Fuente: archivo fotográfico del profesor Julio Portillo Rosales) Photos of the destruction of the town of Lagunillas, in the east side of Maracaibo INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  8. 8. Step one: Technological Risk Urban spaces Step two: Urban spaces Technological Risk Step three: Urbano spaces Technologycal Risk INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010 EVOLUTION OF URBAN TECHNOLOGICAL RISK APPROACH:
  9. 9. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  10. 10. 1. Despite original design locating industrial facilities in the urban periphery, the usual uncontrolled urban growth “ate up” original security distances (low-income human groups searching for alternative ways to survive, ignore territorial and environmental regulations and restrictions). 2. As soon as an industry is settled, it start to promote marginal economic activities that favor the establishment of illegal shanty towns that, over time, consolidate into small citadels surrounded by technological risks. How urban spaces became a risk for industrial facilities?? INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  11. 11. Step one: Technological Risk Urban spaces Step two: Urban spaces Technological Risk Step three: Urbano spaces Technologycal Risk EVOLUTION OF URBAN INDUSTRIAL RISK APPROACH: INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  12. 12. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010 Urban risk characterization and treatment in Merida city (Venezuela).
  13. 13. Characterization of urban technological risk Methodology: – Historical Inventory of HAZMAT emergencies and disasters registered (since 1964 to 2010). – Definition of volume – dangerousness criteria to define field inventory of urban HAZMAT deposits. – Field inventory of potential urban technological risk. – Validation of mathematical models. – Design of GIS tool for geospatial characterization of local urban risk. – Transference of results of the research process. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  14. 14. Urban Hazmat Inventory criteria • Technological Urban Risk Considered: – Explosion (including BLEVE) – Great Urban Fires – Toxic gases – Dirty radiation fonts INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  15. 15. Urban Commercial Activities of Interest • Water potabilisation and pools • Storage and distribution of gasoline • Domestic gas distribution • Medicine Gases and similar • Liquor distillation & selling • Firecrackers selling • Paint selling and distribution • Laboratory products • Agrochemical • Supermarkets • Cosmetics • Esoteric brews • Metal cromation • Metal mechanic • Refrigeration • Lubricants oil • Woodcraft materials • Plastic bags factories • Leather factories • Candles (sails) factories INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  16. 16. Checklist for urban inventory of technological hazards Nº CATEGORIA EMPRESAS, INDUSTRIAS, COMERCIOS SUSTANCIAS A MONITOREAR 8 Agrochemical s AGROISLEŇA CASA AGRICOLA Organochlorades and Organophosphates 9 Hypermarkets EXITO GARZON CIUDAD DE MERIDA MAKRO CADA CENTRAL Alcohol Acetona Kerosene Cloro Limpiador de hornos Aerosoles Bencina 10 Cosmetics MAKARENA GRAN MUNDO KABELLOS Nails Cleaners Alcohol Hair decolorants 11 Esoteric Brew Distribution MAGIA LA REINA EL BRUJO BUENO Ammoniac Powder, Candles (sails) INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  17. 17. Urban chemical explotion analisis
  18. 18. Preliminary results of potential affectation estimated for a painting store located near the airport of Merida city INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  19. 19. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  20. 20. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  21. 21. Escenary for instantaneous escape of toxic gases INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  22. 22. Parameters estimation for basic gaussian models: Model for instantaneous escapes ( )                 ∂ + −+      ∂ − −         ∂ − ∂ − − ∂∂∂ = 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2/3 2 exp 2 )( exp*) 22 )*( exp* )2( ),,,( zzyx w zyx hzhzytUxm tzyxC π b1 c1 x2 c2 c3 x3 x3 c3 b3 a x1 b3 Clase de estabilidad a b c d A 0,527 0,865 0,28 0,90 B 0,371 0,866 0,23 0,85 C 0,209 0,897 0,22 0,80 D 0,128 0,905 0,20 0,76 E 0,098 0,902 0,15 0,73 F 0,065 0,902 0,12 0,67 INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  23. 23. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010 UNACEPTABLE URBAN DAMAGE LEVEL APPLICATION ON FAULT TREE ANALYSIS LOSS ≥ L URBAN NATCHES SCENARY BUILDING AFECTATION ≥ A STRUCTURAL CAPACITY ≤ C EVENT MAGNITUDE≥ M GROUND MOTION ≥ G FOCUS DISTANCE ≤ D AND AND OPERATIONAL FAILURE ≥ F DEBRISH FLOWS ≥ D SOILS SATURATIONS ≥ S WATER COURSES OBSTRUCTION ≥ W PRECIPITATIO N ≥ P mm AN D LANDSLIDES ≥ V
  24. 24. • Formal agreement with fire department • Training (GIS, damage estimation). • Material and equipments (PC + maps). • Logistic support in field activities. • Information exchange. Transference of research results INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  25. 25. Conclusions 1. “Technological risk” associated with hazardous materials within urban areas is a significant and growing problem. 2. Because of interrelated economic, social, political, cultural, and institutional factors, attempting to manage urban industrial risk solely improving capacities within the bounds of industrial facilities is unlikely to be effective. 3. Realistically -- and particularly in less structured societies -- strong social and economic circumstances makes industrial facilities and human settlements coexist in inconveniently close proximity. 4. Residents within the reaches of technological facilities must be made aware of the potential threats they are exposed (industrial surrounding communities are frequently denied their right to know about the technological risks to which they are exposed. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  26. 26. Conclusions 5. Efforts made in Merida City to characterize urban technological risks suggest the importance to include in this kind of risk analysis common commercial facilities. (it seems that the paradigm that limited technological risk sources only to industrial facilities must be revised). 6. Geographic information system (GIS) that combine urban technological and natural threats have been made and used in designing strategies for local risk reduction and disaster preparation. 7. Diverse challenges must be met during these efforts, particularly because available methodologies tend to focus only on risks associated with industrial facilities. INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010
  27. 27. www.cigir.org http://www.eird.org/plataforma-tematica-riesgo- urbano/recopilacion-de-articulos/index.html. contacto@cigir.org alejandrolinayo@gmail.org ww.desenredando.org FOR ADITIONAL INFORMATION INTERNATIONAL DISASTER AND RISK CONFERENCE DAVOS 2010

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